Vertical alignment of process models – how can we get there?

There is a wide variety of drivers for business process modelling initiatives, reaching from business evolution and process optimisation over compliance checking and process certification to process enactment. That, in turn, results in models that differ in content due to serving different purposes. In particular, processes are modelled on different abstraction levels and assume different perspectives. Vertical alignment of process models aims at handling these deviations. While the advantages of such an alignment for inter-model analysis and change propagation are out of question, a number of challenges has still to be addressed. In this paper, we discuss three main challenges for vertical alignment in detail. Against this background, the potential application of techniques from the field of process integration is critically assessed. Based thereon, we identify specific research questions that guide the design of a framework for model alignment.

Integrated access control for smart buildings using building information models

This thesis investigates the use of building information models for access control and security applications in critical infrastructures and complex building environments. It examines current problems in security management for physical and logical access control and proposes novel solutions that exploit the detailed information available in building information models. The project was carried out as part of the Airports of the Future Project and the research was modelled based on real-world problems identified in collaboration with our industry partners in the project.

Service innovation and business models

Western economies are highly dependent on service innovation for their growth and employment. An important driver for economic growth is, therefore, the development of new, innovative services like electronic services, mobile end-user services, new financial or personalized services. Service innovation joins four trends that currently shape the western economies: the growing importance of services, the need for innovation, changes in consumer and business markets, and the advancements in information and communication technology (ICT).

A disaggregate discrete choice model of transportation demand by elderly and disabled people in rural Virginia

This paper uses a correlated multinomial logit model and a Poisson regression model to measure the factors affecting demand for different types of transportation by elderly and disabled people in rural Virginia. The major results are: (a) A paratransit system providing door-to-door service is highly valued by transportation-handicapped people; (b) Taxis are probably a potential but inferior alternative even when subsidized; (c) Buses are a poor alternative, especially in rural areas where distances to bus stops may be long; (d) Making buses handicap-accessible would have a statistically significant but small effect on mode choice; (e) Demand is price inelastic; and (f) The total number of trips taken is insensitive to mode availability and characteristics. These results suggest that transportation-handicapped people take a limited number of trips. Those they do take are in some sense necessary (given the low elasticity with respect to mode price or availability). People will substitute away from relying upon others when appropriate transportation is available, at least to some degree. But such transportation needs to be flexible enough to meet the needs of the people involved.

Two dynamic discrete choice estimation problems and simulation method solutions

This paper considers two problems that frequently arise in dynamic discrete choice problems but have not received much attention with regard to simulation methods. The first problem is how to simulate unbiased simulators of probabilities conditional on past history. The second is simulating a discrete transition probability model when the underlying dependent variable is really continuous. Both methods work well relative to reasonable alternatives in the application discussed. However, in both cases, for this application, simpler methods also provide reasonably good results.

Shared caregiving responsibilities of adult siblings with elderly parents

This paper uses a nonstructural, ordered discrete choice model to measure the effects of various parent and child characteristics upon the independent caregiving decisions of the adult children of elderly parents sampled in the 1982 and 1984 National Long Term Care Survey (NLTCS). While significant effects are noted, emphasis is placed on test statistics constructed to measure the independence of caregiving decisions. The test statistic results are conclusive: The caregiving decisions of adult children are dependent across time and family members. Structural models taking dependencies among family members into account note effects similar to those in the nonstructural model.

Semiparametric estimation of count regression models

This paper develops a semiparametric estimation approach for mixed count regression models based on series expansion for the unknown density of the unobserved heterogeneity. We use the generalized Laguerre series expansion around a gamma baseline density to model unobserved heterogeneity in a Poisson mixture model. We establish the consistency of the estimator and present a computational strategy to implement the proposed estimation techniques in the standard count model as well as in truncated, censored, and zero-inflated count regression models. Monte Carlo evidence shows that the finite sample behavior of the estimator is quite good. The paper applies the method to a model of individual shopping behavior. © 1999 Elsevier Science S.A. All rights reserved.

Survival models of community tenure and length of hospital stay for the seriously mentally ill : a 10-year perspective

Objective: To examine the effects of personal and community characteristics, specifically race and rurality, on lengths of state psychiatric hospital and community stays using maximum likelihood survival analysis with a special emphasis on change over a ten year period of time. Data Sources: We used the administrative data of the Virginia Department of Mental Health, Mental Retardation, and Substance Abuse Services (DMHMRSAS) from 1982-1991 and the Area Resources File (ARF). Given these two sources, we constructed a history file for each individual who entered the state psychiatric system over the ten year period. Histories included demographic, treatment, and community characteristics. Study Design: We used a longitudinal, population-based design with maximum likelihood estimation of survival models. We presented a random effects model with unobserved heterogeneity that was independent of observed covariates. The key dependent variables were lengths of inpatient stay and subsequent length of community stay. Explanatory variables measured personal, diagnostic, and community characteristics, as well as controls for calendar time. Data Collection: This study used secondary, administrative, and health planning data. Principal Findings: African-American clients leave the community more quickly than whites. After controlling for other characteristics, however, race does not affect hospital length of stay. Rurality does not affect length of community stays once other personal and community characteristics are controlled for. However, people from rural areas have longer hospital stays even after controlling for personal and community characteristics. The effects of time are significantly smaller than expected. Diagnostic composition effects and a decrease in the rate of first inpatient admissions explain part of this reduced impact of time. We also find strong evidence for the existence of unobserved heterogeneity in both types of stays and adjust for this in our final models. Conclusions: Our results show that information on client characteristics available from inpatient stay records is useful in predicting not only the length of inpatient stay but also the length of the subsequent community stay. This information can be used to target increased discharge planning for those at risk of more rapid readmission to inpatient care. Correlation across observed and unobserved factors affecting length of stay has significant effects on the measurement of relationships between individual factors and lengths of stay. Thus, it is important to control for both observed and unobserved factors in estimation.

A particle based model to simulate microscale morphological changes of plant tissues during drying

Fundamental understanding on microscopic physical changes of plant materials is vital to optimize product quality and processing techniques, particularly in food engineering. Although grid-based numerical modelling can assist in this regard, it becomes quite challenging to overcome the inherited complexities of these biological materials especially when such materials undergo critical processing conditions such as drying, where the cellular structure undergoes extreme deformations. In this context, a meshfree particle based model was developed which is fundamentally capable of handling extreme deformations of plant tissues during drying. The model is built by coupling a particle based meshfree technique: Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics (SPH) and a Discrete Element Method (DEM). Plant cells were initiated as hexagons and aggregated to form a tissue which also accounts for the characteristics of the middle lamella. In each cell, SPH was used to model cell protoplasm and DEM was used to model the cell wall. Drying was incorporated by varying the moisture content, the turgor pressure, and cell wall contraction effects. Compared to the state of the art grid-based microscale plant tissue drying models, the proposed model can be used to simulate tissues under excessive moisture content reductions incorporating cell wall wrinkling. Also, compared to the state of the art SPH-DEM tissue models, the proposed model better replicates real tissues and the cell-cell interactions used ensure efficient computations. Model predictions showed good agreement both qualitatively and quantitatively with experimental findings on dried plant tissues. The proposed modelling approach is fundamentally flexible to study different cellular structures for their microscale morphological changes at dehydration.

Optimal Bayesian experimental design for models with intractable likelihoods using indirect inference applied to biological process models

This paper addresses the problem of determining optimal designs for biological process models with intractable likelihoods, with the goal of parameter inference. The Bayesian approach is to choose a design that maximises the mean of a utility, and the utility is a function of the posterior distribution. Therefore, its estimation requires likelihood evaluations. However, many problems in experimental design involve models with intractable likelihoods, that is, likelihoods that are neither analytic nor can be computed in a reasonable amount of time. We propose a novel solution using indirect inference (II), a well established method in the literature, and the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm of Müller et al. (2004). Indirect inference employs an auxiliary model with a tractable likelihood in conjunction with the generative model, the assumed true model of interest, which has an intractable likelihood. Our approach is to estimate a map between the parameters of the generative and auxiliary models, using simulations from the generative model. An II posterior distribution is formed to expedite utility estimation. We also present a modification to the utility that allows the Müller algorithm to sample from a substantially sharpened utility surface, with little computational effort. Unlike competing methods, the II approach can handle complex design problems for models with intractable likelihoods on a continuous design space, with possible extension to many observations. The methodology is demonstrated using two stochastic models; a simple tractable death process used to validate the approach, and a motivating stochastic model for the population evolution of macroparasites.

Creating flexible mappings between building information models and cost information

During the early design stages of construction projects, accurate and timely cost feedback is critical to design decision making. This is particularly challenging for cost estimators, as they must quickly and accurately estimate the cost of the building when the design is still incomplete and evolving. State-of-the-art software tools typically use a rule-based approach to generate detailed quantities from the design details present in a building model and relate them to the cost items in a cost estimating database. In this paper, we propose a generic approach for creating and maintaining a cost estimate using flexible mappings between a building model and a cost estimate. The approach uses queries on the building design that are used to populate views, and each view is then associated with one or more cost items. The benefit of this approach is that the flexibility of modern query languages allows the estimator to encode a broad variety of relationships between the design and estimate. It also avoids the use of a common standard to which both designers and estimators must conform, allowing the estimator added flexibility and functionality to their work.

Assessing the role of spatial correlations during collective cell spreading

Spreading cell fronts are essential features of development, repair and disease processes. Many mathematical models used to describe the motion of cell fronts, such as Fisher’s equation, invoke a mean–field assumption which implies that there is no spatial structure, such as cell clustering, present. Here, we examine the presence of spatial structure using a combination of in vitro circular barrier assays, discrete random walk simulations and pair correlation functions. In particular, we analyse discrete simulation data using pair correlation functions to show that spatial structure can form in a spreading population of cells either through sufficiently strong cell–to–cell adhesion or sufficiently rapid cell proliferation. We analyse images from a circular barrier assay describing the spreading of a population of MM127 melanoma cells using the same pair correlation functions. Our results indicate that the spreading melanoma cell populations remain very close to spatially uniform, suggesting that the strength of cell–to–cell adhesion and the rate of cell proliferation are both sufficiently small so as not to induce any spatial patterning in the spreading populations.

Compressed sensing using hidden Markov models with application to vision based aircraft tracking

This paper investigates compressed sensing using hidden Markov models (HMMs) and hence provides an extension of recent single frame, bounded error sparse decoding problems into a class of sparse estimation problems containing both temporal evolution and stochastic aspects. This paper presents two optimal estimators for compressed HMMs. The impact of measurement compression on HMM filtering performance is experimentally examined in the context of an important image based aircraft target tracking application. Surprisingly, tracking of dim small-sized targets (as small as 5-10 pixels, with local detectability/SNR as low as − 1.05 dB) was only mildly impacted by compressed sensing down to 15% of original image size.

Models of social media adoption in emergency management organisations

Recent natural disasters such as the Haitian earthquake 2011, the South East Queensland floods 2011, the Japanese earthquake and tsunami 2011 and Hurricane Sandy in the United States of America in 2012, have seen social media platforms changing the face of emergency management communications, not only in times of crisis and also during business-as-usual operations. With social media being such an important and powerful communication tool, especially for emergency management organisations, the question arises as to whether the use of social media in these organisations emerged by considered strategic design or more as a reactive response to a new and popular communication channel. This paper provides insight into how the social media function has been positioned, staffed and managed in organisations throughout the world, with a particular focus on how these factors influence the style of communication used on social media platforms. This study has identified that the social media function falls on a continuum between two polarised models, namely the authoritative one-way communication approach and the more interactive approach that seeks to network and engage with the community through multi-way communication. Factors such the size of the organisation; dedicated resourcing of the social media function; organisational culture and mission statement; the presence of a social media champion within the organisation; management style and knowledge about social media play a key role in determining where on the continuum organisations sit in relation to their social media capability. This review, together with a forthcoming survey of Australian emergency management organisations and local governments, will fill a gap in the current body of knowledge about the evolution, positioning and usage of social media in organisations working in the emergency management field in Australia. These findings will be fed back to Industry for potential inclusion in future strategies and practices.

Degradation modeling and monitoring of machines using operation-specific hidden Markov models

In this paper, a novel data-driven approach to monitoring of systems operating under variable operating conditions is described. The method is based on characterizing the degradation process via a set of operation-specific hidden Markov models (HMMs), whose hidden states represent the unobservable degradation states of the monitored system while its observable symbols represent the sensor readings. Using the HMM framework, modeling, identification and monitoring methods are detailed that allow one to identify a HMM of degradation for each operation from mixed-operation data and perform operation-specific monitoring of the system. Using a large data set provided by a major manufacturer, the new methods are applied to a semiconductor manufacturing process running multiple operations in a production environment.