672 resultados para Prediction theory


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We extended the previous work of Moss, O’Connor and White, to include a measure of group norms within the theory of planned behaviour (TPB), to examine the influences on students’ decisions to use lecture podcasts as part of their learning. Participants (N = 90) completed the extended TPB predictors before semester began (Time 1) and mid-semester (Time 2) and reported on their podcast use at mid-semester (Time 2) and end of semester (Time 3). We found that attitudes and perceived social pressures were important in informing intentions at both time points. At Time 1, perceptions of control over performing the behaviour and, at Time 2, perceptions of whether podcast use was normative among fellow students (group norms) also predicted intended podcast use. Intentions to use podcasting predicted self-reported use at both Time 2 and Time 3. These results provide important applied information for educators to encourage student use of novel on-line educational tools.

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Due to the health impacts caused by exposures to air pollutants in urban areas, monitoring and forecasting of air quality parameters have become popular as an important topic in atmospheric and environmental research today. The knowledge on the dynamics and complexity of air pollutants behavior has made artificial intelligence models as a useful tool for a more accurate pollutant concentration prediction. This paper focuses on an innovative method of daily air pollution prediction using combination of Support Vector Machine (SVM) as predictor and Partial Least Square (PLS) as a data selection tool based on the measured values of CO concentrations. The CO concentrations of Rey monitoring station in the south of Tehran, from Jan. 2007 to Feb. 2011, have been used to test the effectiveness of this method. The hourly CO concentrations have been predicted using the SVM and the hybrid PLS–SVM models. Similarly, daily CO concentrations have been predicted based on the aforementioned four years measured data. Results demonstrated that both models have good prediction ability; however the hybrid PLS–SVM has better accuracy. In the analysis presented in this paper, statistic estimators including relative mean errors, root mean squared errors and the mean absolute relative error have been employed to compare performances of the models. It has been concluded that the errors decrease after size reduction and coefficients of determination increase from 56 to 81% for SVM model to 65–85% for hybrid PLS–SVM model respectively. Also it was found that the hybrid PLS–SVM model required lower computational time than SVM model as expected, hence supporting the more accurate and faster prediction ability of hybrid PLS–SVM model.

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Background The effects of exposure to ultraviolet radiation are a significant concern in Australia which has one of the highest incidences of skin cancer in the world. Despite most skin cancers being preventable by encouraging consistent adoption of sun-protective behaviours, incidence rates are not decreasing. There is a dearth of research examining the factors involved in engaging in sun-protective behaviours. Further, online multi-behavioural theory-based interventions have yet to be explored fully as a medium for improving sun-protective behaviour in adults. This paper presents the study protocol of a randomised controlled trial of an online intervention based on the Theory of Planned Behaviour (TPB) that aims to improve sun safety among Australian adults. Methods/Design Approximately 420 adults aged 18 and over and predominantly from Queensland, Australia, will be recruited and randomised to the intervention (n = 200), information only (n = 200) or the control group (n = 20). The intervention focuses on encouraging supportive attitudes and beliefs toward sun-protective behaviour, fostering perceptions of normative support for sun protection, and increasing perceptions of control/self-efficacy over sun protection. The intervention will be delivered online over a single session. Data will be collected immediately prior to the intervention (Time 1), immediately following the intervention (Time 1b), and one week (Time 2) and one month (Time 3) post-intervention. Primary outcomes are intentions to sun protect and sun-protective behaviour. Secondary outcomes are the participants’ attitudes toward sun protection, perceptions of normative support for sun protection (i.e. subjective norms, group norms, personal norms and image norms) and perceptions of control/self-efficacy toward sun protection. Discussion The study will contribute to an understanding of the effectiveness of a TPB-based online intervention to improve Australian adults’ sun-protective behaviour. Trials registry Australian and New Zealand Trials Registry number ACTRN12613000470796

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MapReduce frameworks such as Hadoop are well suited to handling large sets of data which can be processed separately and independently, with canonical applications in information retrieval and sales record analysis. Rapid advances in sequencing technology have ensured an explosion in the availability of genomic data, with a consequent rise in the importance of large scale comparative genomics, often involving operations and data relationships which deviate from the classical Map Reduce structure. This work examines the application of Hadoop to patterns of this nature, using as our focus a wellestablished workflow for identifying promoters - binding sites for regulatory proteins - Across multiple gene regions and organisms, coupled with the unifying step of assembling these results into a consensus sequence. Our approach demonstrates the utility of Hadoop for problems of this nature, showing how the tyranny of the "dominant decomposition" can be at least partially overcome. It also demonstrates how load balance and the granularity of parallelism can be optimized by pre-processing that splits and reorganizes input files, allowing a wide range of related problems to be brought under the same computational umbrella.

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The use of the Sengstaken–Blakemore tube as a life-saving treatment for bleeding oesophageal varices is slowly becoming the least preferred method possibly due to the potential complications associated with its placement. Nursing practice pertaining to the care of this patient group appears ad hoc and reliant on local knowledge and experience as opposed to recognised evidence of best practice. Therefore, this paper focuses on the application of Lewin's transitional change theory used to introduce a change in nursing practice with the application of a guideline to enhance the care of patients with a Sengstaken–Blakemore tube in situ within a general intensive care unit. This method identified some of the complexities surrounding the change process including the driving and restraining forces that must be harnessed and minimised in order for the adoption of change to be successful.

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This article presents new theoretical and empirical evidence on the forecasting ability of prediction markets. We develop a model that predicts that the time until expiration of a prediction market should negatively affect the accuracy of prices as a forecasting tool in the direction of a ‘favourite/longshot bias’. That is, high-likelihood events are underpriced, and low-likelihood events are over-priced. We confirm this result using a large data set of prediction market transaction prices. Prediction markets are reasonably well calibrated when time to expiration is relatively short, but prices are significantly biased for events farther in the future. When time value of money is considered, the miscalibration can be exploited to earn excess returns only when the trader has a relatively low discount rate.

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The last fifty years have witnessed the growing pervasiveness of the figure of the map in critical, theoretical, and fictional discourse. References to mapping and cartography are endemic in poststructuralist theory, and, similarly, geographically and culturally diverse authors of twentieth-century fiction seem fixated upon mapping. While the map metaphor has been employed for centuries to highlight issues of textual representation and epistemology, the map metaphor itself has undergone a transformation in the postmodern era. This metamorphosis draws together poststructuralist conceptualizations of epistemology, textuality, cartography, and metaphor, and signals a shift away from modernist preoccupations with temporality and objectivity to a postmodern pragmatics of spatiality and subjectivity. Cartographic Strategies of Postmodernity charts this metamorphosis of cartographic metaphor, and argues that the ongoing reworking of the map metaphor renders it a formative and performative metaphor of postmodernity.

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In this paper we introduce a formalization of Logical Imaging applied to IR in terms of Quantum Theory through the use of an analogy between states of a quantum system and terms in text documents. Our formalization relies upon the Schrodinger Picture, creating an analogy between the dynamics of a physical system and the kinematics of probabilities generated by Logical Imaging. By using Quantum Theory, it is possible to model more precisely contextual information in a seamless and principled fashion within the Logical Imaging process. While further work is needed to empirically validate this, the foundations for doing so are provided.

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Recently, Portfolio Theory (PT) has been proposed for Information Retrieval. However, under non-trivial conditions PT violates the original Probability Ranking Principle (PRP). In this poster, we shall explore whether PT upholds a different ranking principle based on Quantum Theory, i.e. the Quantum Probability Ranking Principle (QPRP), and examine the relationship between this new model and the new ranking principle. We make a significant contribution to the theoretical development of PT and show that under certain circumstances PT upholds the QPRP, and thus guarantees an optimal ranking according to the QPRP. A practical implication of this finding is that the parameters of PT can be automatically estimated via the QPRP, instead of resorting to extensive parameter tuning.

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This article reports on a review of selected theory and practice in sports journalism to determine if the prominence of female journalists reporting the news of a major sporting movement, and industry, the Australian Football League (AFL) could be attributed to a feminist response to the traditional domination of male values in the sports media complex. The article reviews selected literature to establish that, on the evidence presented, male values have traditionally dominated the news. It then considers feminist theory and alternative feminist responses to the domination of male values in the newsroom. Consideration is also given to Australian research on the ‘seriousness’ of sports news and its coverage (or lack thereof) of more ‘feminine’ news values including human interest stories, stories about culture and those on serious social issues. Interviews with a select group of female journalists who write about the AFL for The Age newspaper in Melbourne are recounted, with a focus on the journalists’ work experiences. The article concludes by drawing together the research findings to demonstrate that, although feminine news values are represented in only a small proportion of AFL news stories, there is evidence to suggest they are afforded a high degree of presentational prominence which reflects the needs and expectations of a female audience. It shows that female journalists do play a meaningful role in the AFL media and that, given the evidence presented, a feminist response to the traditional domination of male values in the sports media complex could indeed be applicable, and taking place.

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In this paper, we seek to operationalize Amartya Sen's concept of human capability to guide a scholarly investigation of student career choice capability. We begin by outlining factors affecting youth labour markets in Australia; a prosperous country that is affected by a ‘two-speed’ national economy. We then examine recent government initiatives that have been designed to combat youth unemployment and cyclical disadvantage by enhancing the aspirations and career knowledge of secondary school students. We argue that these policy measures are based on four assumptions: first, that career choice capability is a problem of individual agency; second, that the dissemination of career information can empower students to act as ‘consumers’ in an unequal job market; third, that agency is simply a question of will; and finally, that school education and career advice – as a means to freedom in the space of career development – is of equal quality, distribution and value to an increasingly diverse range of upper secondary school students. The paper concludes by outlining a conceptual framework capable of informing an empirical research project that aims to test these assumptions by measuring and comparing differences between groups in the range of freedom to achieve and, therefore, to choose.

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This project develops and evaluates a model of curriculum design that aims to assist student learning of foundational disciplinary ‘Threshold Concepts’. The project uses phenomenographic action research, cross-institutional peer collaboration and the Variation Theory of Learning to develop and trial the model. Two contrasting disciplines (Physics and Law) and four institutions (two research-intensive and two universities of technology) were involved in the project, to ensure broad applicability of the model across different disciplines and contexts. The Threshold Concepts that were selected for curriculum design attention were measurement uncertainty in Physics and legal reasoning in Law. Threshold Concepts are key disciplinary concepts that are inherently troublesome, transformative and integrative in nature. Once understood, such concepts transform students’ views of the discipline because they enable students to coherently integrate what were previously seen as unrelated aspects of the subject, providing new ways of thinking about it (Meyer & Land 2003, 2005, 2006; Land et al. 2008). However, the integrative and transformative nature of such threshold concepts make them inherently difficult for students to learn, with resulting misunderstandings of concepts being prevalent...