Do prediction markets produce well-calibrated probability forecasts?

This article presents new theoretical and empirical evidence on the forecasting ability of prediction markets. We develop a model that predicts that the time until expiration of a prediction market should negatively affect the accuracy of prices as a forecasting tool in the direction of a ‘favourite/longshot bias’. That is, high-likelihood events are underpriced, and low-likelihood events are over-priced. We confirm this result using a large data set of prediction market transaction prices. Prediction markets are reasonably well calibrated when time to expiration is relatively short, but prices are significantly biased for events farther in the future. When time value of money is considered, the miscalibration can be exploited to earn excess returns only when the trader has a relatively low discount rate.

Developing the quantum probability ranking principle

In this work, we summarise the development of a ranking principle based on quantum probability theory, called the Quantum Probability Ranking Principle (QPRP), and we also provide an overview of the initial experiments performed employing the QPRP. The main difference between the QPRP and the classic Probability Ranking Principle, is that the QPRP implicitly captures the dependencies between documents by means of quantum interference". Subsequently, the optimal ranking of documents is not based solely on documents' probability of relevance but also on the interference with the previously ranked documents. Our research shows that the application of quantum theory to problems within information retrieval can lead to consistently better retrieval effectiveness, while still being simple, elegant and tractable.

Bouncing back : developing resilience

We always seem to hear about those dancers who are successful, but how do you cope when you don't get what you want? In life, we are often faced with situations where things don’t quite go to plan. We might not get the job we wanted, the grade we expected, the grant we applied for, or that long-dreamed of opportunity. What we make of these experiences shapes how we respond in the future to similar events...

Developing a culture to support peer review of teaching in higher education

This presentation addresses issues related to leadership, academic development and scholarship of teaching and learning, and highlights research funded by the Australian Office of Learning and Teaching (OLT) designed to embed and sustain peer review of teaching within the culture of 5 Australian universities: Queensland University of Technology, University of Technology, Sydney, University of Adelaide, Curtin University, and Charles Darwin University. Peer review of teaching in higher education will be emphasised as a professional process for providing feedback on teaching and learning practice, which if sustained, can become an effective ongoing strategy for academic development (Barnard et al, 2011; Bell, 2005; Bolt and Atkinson, 2010; McGill & Beaty 2001, 1992; Kemmis & McTaggart, 2000). The research affirms that using developmental peer review models (Barnard et al, 2011; D'Andrea, 2002; Hammersley-Fletcher & Orsmond, 2004) can bring about successful implementation, especially when implemented within a distributive leadership framework (Spillane & Healey, 2010). The project’s aims and objectives were to develop leadership capacity and integrate peer review as a cultural practice in higher education. The research design was a two stage inquiry process over 2 years. The project began in July 2011 and encompassed a development and pilot phase followed by a cascade phase with questionnaire and focus group evaluation processes to support ongoing improvement and measures of outcome. Leadership development activities included locally delivered workshops complemented by the identification and support of champions. To optimise long term sustainability, the project was implemented through existing learning and teaching structures and processes within the respective partner universities. Research outcomes highlight the fundamentals of peer review of teaching and the broader contextual elements of integration, leadership and development, expressed as a conceptual model for embedding peer review of teaching within higher education. The research opens a communicative space about introduction of peer review that goes further than simply espousing its worth and introduction. The conceptual model highlights the importance of development of distributive leadership capacity, integration of policies and processes, and understanding the values, beliefs, assumptions and behaviors embedded in an organizational culture. The presentation overviews empirical findings that demonstrate progress to advance peer review requires an ‘across-the-board’ commitment to embed change, and inherently demands a process that co-creates connection across colleagues, discipline groups, and the university sector. Progress toward peer review of teaching as a cultural phenomenon can be achieved and has advantages for academic staff, scholarship, teaching evaluation and an organisation, if attention is given to strategies that influence the contexts and cultures of teaching practice. Peer review as a strategy to develop excellence in teaching is considered from a holistic perspective that by necessity encompasses all elements of an educational environment and has a focus on scholarship of teaching. The work is ongoing and has implication for policy, research, teaching development and student outcomes, and has potential application world-wide.

Higher Education and Sustainable Development : A Model for Curriculum Renewal

Responding to the global and unprecedented challenge of capacity building for twenty-first century life, this book is a practical guide for tertiary education institutions to quickly and effectively renew the curriculum towards education for sustainable development. The book begins by exploring why curriculum change has been so slow. It then describes a model for rapid curriculum renewal, highlighting the important roles of setting timeframes, formal and informal leadership, and key components and action strategies. The second part of the book provides detailed coverage of six core elements that have been trialled and peer reviewed by institutions around the world: - raising awareness among staff and students - mapping graduate attributes - auditing the curriculum - developing niche degrees, flagship courses and fully integrated programs - engaging and catalysing community and student markets - integrating curriculum with green campus operations. With input from more than seventy academics and grounded in engineering education experiences, this book will provide academic staff with tools and insights to rapidly align program offerings with the needs of present and future generations of students.

Developing sustainable fish farming in the Western Pacific : a viewpoint on potential reasons for why many attempts failed

Capture fisheries and aquaculture have been a major source of food and providers of economic benefits to many communities around the world for a very long time. While the history of aquaculture or fish farming can be traced back for more than 2000 years in some corners of the globe, notably in China, Japan and the Mediterranean, this is not true everywhere, where in general, fish farming is a relatively new industry. Rapid human population growth and increasing urbanisation over the last 20 to 40 years has meant that while fish consumption has doubled globally, returns from capture fisheries have remained static or have declined due to overexploitation and rising pollution levels, with some fisheries either closing or becoming economically unviable. Data from studies suggest that this trend is unlikely to be reversed unless appropriate fisheries management allows depleted wild stocks to rebuild. This has occurred during a time when demand for fish products has grown, in part due to improved purchasing power in some developing countries and changing dietary habits where fish are now considered to have a positive impact on health. Based on the projected population growth over the next two decades, Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) estimates that at least an additional 40 million tonnes of aquatic food will be required to maintain the current per capita consumption (FAO 2006).

Developing a framework for subcontractor appraisal using a balanced scorecard

Subcontractors contribute significantly to construction projects and their performance can seriously affect over-all project success. It is crucial, therefore, to appraise the performance of subcontractors to ensure they satisfy the client's expectations and project requirements. To increase the transparency and accuracy of subcontractor appraisal, the baseline and target performance levels should be set at the outset so that the appraisers and those being appraised realize exactly what standards are to be achieved. The balanced scorecard, being a powerful tool for performance appraisal, offers a potentially good approach for modeling the subcontractor appraisal process. In this paper, an approach to developing a balanced scorecard subcontractor appraisal model is proposed and demonstrated through a questionnaire survey administered in Hong Kong and from which the baseline and target performance levels for large-scale skilled subcontractors are identified. A case example is used to illustrate the operation of the model. Finally, a means by which the model may be validated is demonstrated through the use of field experts. The results demonstrate the feasibility of developing a balanced scorecard model that can help improve the transparency of subcontractor appraisal despite the baseline and target performance levels changing according to the project characteristics, subcontractor categories and size.

Factors for IT-enabled public sector process improvements in developing economies

IT resources are indispensable in the management of Public Sector Organizations (PSOs) around the world. We investigate the factors that could leverage the IT resources in PSOs in developing economies. While research on ways to leverage IT resources in private sector organizations of developed countries is substantial, our understanding on ways to leverage the IT resources in the public sector in developing countries is limited. The current study aspires to address this gap in the literature by seeking to determine the key factors required to create process value from public sector IT investments in developing countries. We draw on the resource-centric theories to imply the nature of factors that could leverage the IT resources in the public sector. Employing an interpretive design, we identified three factors necessary for IT process value generation in the public sector. We discuss these factors and state their implications to theory and practice.

Developing learning cohorts for postgraduate research degrees

Development of researchers through higher degree research studies is a high priority in most universities. Yet, research about supervision as pedagogy and models of supervision is only recently gained increasing attention. Charged with producing good researchers within very limited resources, academics are constantly looking for more efficient models of supervision for higher degree research students. A cohort model of supervision promises several efficiencies, but we argue that its success lies importantly on how well the cohort is developed specifically for higher degree research studies. We drew on a growing body of literature on higher degree research supervision to design, implement and evaluate our approach to developing a cohort of seven students enrolled in the Master of Education (Research) degree. Our approach included four provisions: initial residential workshop, development of a learning community, nourishing scholarship, and ongoing learning opportunities. The four provisions resulted in gradually developing an environment and culture that students found very supportive and nurturing. This paper is based on the findings from data collected from student evaluations in the first year of studies, feedback from the cohort’s sponsor, and our reflective notes. The evaluation substantiated the value in investing time and resources for purposely developing a cohort for higher degree research studies. Whether the cohorts are sponsored or not, universities will still need to invest time and resources for cohort development if a cohort model is intended to gain wider efficiencies in supervision of higher degree research students.

Global business today, 3rd Asia Pacific Edition

The third edition of Global Business Today continues to effectively combine a world-wide orientation with an emphasis on the strategic issues that impact global business in our region. The authors provide background on the political, economic, social or cultural aspects of countries grappling with an international business issue, raising students' awareness of how national and geographic differences affect the conduct of international business. Chapter 7, for example, contains a new Country Focus box titled, "India's stuttering economic transformation". Developing economies are covered in the new Emerging Markets feature emphasizing the global coverage of the text and the increasing complexities and opportunities in international business. Chapter 13 contains Another Perspective box titled, "The China-plus-one Strategy."

Developing Co-operating Legal Knowledge Based Systems

In attempting to build intelligent litigation support tools, we have moved beyond first generation, production rule legal expert systems. Our work supplements rule-based reasoning with case based reasoning and intelligent information retrieval. This research, specifies an approach to the case based retrieval problem which relies heavily on an extended object-oriented / rule-based system architecture that is supplemented with causal background information. Machine learning techniques and a distributed agent architecture are used to help simulate the reasoning process of lawyers. In this paper, we outline our implementation of the hybrid IKBALS II Rule Based Reasoning / Case Based Reasoning system. It makes extensive use of an automated case representation editor and background information.

Developing a culture of peer review of teaching through a distributive leadership approach

Teaching is a core function of higher education and must be effective if it is to provide students with learning experiences that are stimulating, challenging and rewarding Obtaining feedback on teaching is indispensable to enhancing the quality of learning design, facilitating personal and/or professional development and maximising student learning outcomes. Peer review of teaching has the potential to improve the quality of teaching at tertiary level, by encouraging critical reflection on teaching, innovation in teaching practice and scholarship of teaching at all academic levels. However, embedding peer review within the culture of teaching and learning is a significant challenge that requires sustained commitment from senior leadership as well as those in leadership roles within local contexts.