Approximation of Bayesian predictive p-values with regression ABC

In the Bayesian framework a standard approach to model criticism is to compare some function of the observed data to a reference predictive distribution. The result of the comparison can be summarized in the form of a p-value, and it's well known that computation of some kinds of Bayesian predictive p-values can be challenging. The use of regression adjustment approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) methods is explored for this task. Two problems are considered. The first is the calibration of posterior predictive p-values so that they are uniformly distributed under some reference distribution for the data. Computation is difficult because the calibration process requires repeated approximation of the posterior for different data sets under the reference distribution. The second problem considered is approximation of distributions of prior predictive p-values for the purpose of choosing weakly informative priors in the case where the model checking statistic is expensive to compute. Here the computation is difficult because of the need to repeatedly sample from a prior predictive distribution for different values of a prior hyperparameter. In both these problems we argue that high accuracy in the computations is not required, which makes fast approximations such as regression adjustment ABC very useful. We illustrate our methods with several samples.

Contributions to Bayesian experimental design

This thesis progresses Bayesian experimental design by developing novel methodologies and extensions to existing algorithms. Through these advancements, this thesis provides solutions to several important and complex experimental design problems, many of which have applications in biology and medicine. This thesis consists of a series of published and submitted papers. In the first paper, we provide a comprehensive literature review on Bayesian design. In the second paper, we discuss methods which may be used to solve design problems in which one is interested in finding a large number of (near) optimal design points. The third paper presents methods for finding fully Bayesian experimental designs for nonlinear mixed effects models, and the fourth paper investigates methods to rapidly approximate the posterior distribution for use in Bayesian utility functions.

Towards a quantitative theory of epidermal calcium profile formation in unwounded skin

We propose and mathematically examine a theory of calcium profile formation in unwounded mammalian epidermis based on: changes in keratinocyte proliferation, fluid and calcium exchange with the extracellular fluid during these cells' passage through the epidermal sublayers, and the barrier functions of both the stratum corneum and tight junctions localised in the stratum granulosum. Using this theory, we develop a mathematical model that predicts epidermal sublayer transit times, partitioning of the epidermal calcium gradient between intracellular and extracellular domains, and the permeability of the tight junction barrier to calcium ions. Comparison of our model's predictions of epidermal transit times with experimental data indicates that keratinocytes lose at least 87% of their volume during their disintegration to become corneocytes. Intracellular calcium is suggested as the main contributor to the epidermal calcium gradient, with its distribution actively regulated by a phenotypic switch in calcium exchange between keratinocytes and extracellular fluid present at the boundary between the stratum spinosum and the stratum granulosum. Formation of the extracellular calcium distribution, which rises in concentration through the stratum granulosum towards the skin surface, is attributed to a tight junction barrier in this sublayer possessing permeability to calcium ions that is less than 15 nm/s in human epidermis and less than 37 nm/s in murine epidermis. Future experimental work may refine the presented theory and reduce the mathematical uncertainty present in the model predictions.

Driven by distraction: Investigating the effects of anxiety on driving performance using the Attentional Control Theory

This study investigates the effects of trait anxiety on self-reported driving behaviours through its negative impacts on Central Executive functions. Following a self-report study that found trait anxiety to be significantly related to driving behaviours, the present study extended the predictions of Eysenck and Calvo’s Attentional Control Theory, proposing that anxiety affects driving behaviours, in particular driving lapses, through its impact across the Central Executive. Seventy-five Australian drivers participated in the study, completing the Parametric Go/No-Go and n-back tasks, as well as the State-Trait Anxiety Inventory and the Driving Behaviour Questionnaire. While both trait anxiety and processing efficiency of the Central Executive was found to significantly predict driving lapses, trait anxiety remained a strong predictor of driving lapses after processing efficiency was controlled for. It is concluded that while processing efficiency of the central Executive is a key determinant of driving lapses, another Central Executive function that is closer to the driving lapses in the trait anxiety – driving lapses relationship may be needed. Suggestions regarding how to improve future trait anxiety – driving behaviours research are discussed.

A theory of process modeling impact

Process modeling – the design and use of graphical documentations of an organization’s business processes – is a key method to document and use information about the operations of businesses. Still, despite current interest in process modeling, this research area faces essential challenges. Key unanswered questions concern the impact of process modeling in organizational practice, and the mechanisms through which impacts are developed. To answer these questions and to provide a better understanding of process modeling impact, I turn to the concept of affordances. Affordances describe the possibilities for goal-oriented action that a technical object offers to a user. This notion has received growing attention from IS researchers. The purpose of my research is to further develop the IS discipline’s understanding of affordances and impacts from information objects, such as process models used by analysts for information systems analysis and design. Specifically, I seek to extend existing theory on the emergence, perception and actualization of affordances. I develop a research model that describes the process by which affordances emerge between an individual and an object, how affordances are perceived, and how they are actualized by the individual. The proposed model also explains the role of available information for the individual, and the influence of perceived actualization effort. I operationalize and test this research model empirically, using a full-cycle, mixed methods study consisting of case study and experiment.

Gen Y recruitment: Understanding graduate intentions to join an organisation using the Theory of Planned Behaviour

Purpose Using the Theory of Planned Behaviour (TPB) framework, this study explored whether the standard TPB constructs explained variance in Gen Y individuals’ intentions to join their ideal organisation. Design/methodology/approach A mixed methods approach was used featuring qualitative and quantitative methods. Findings The overall TPB model accounted for a significant 51.6% of the variance in intention to join one’s ideal organisation in the next six months with the significant predictors in the model being subjective norm and perceived behaviour control but not attitude. Research limitations/implications Using graduating students from a single Australian university sample may mean that the current findings may not extend to all Gen Y individuals. The current study has demonstrated the explanatory utility of the TPB in relation to graduate Gen Y’s intention to join their ideal organisation, providing further evidence of the robustness of the TPB framework in an organisational setting. Practical implications These findings have implications for enhancing understanding of the most effective recruitment processes for Gen Y students entering the workforce. The findings could inform recruitment policies and strategies to attract Gen Y applicants. Originality/value To our knowledge this study is the first application of the TPB to this topic. The current research extends the recruitment literature with a theoretically-based investigation. Identification of factors which inform organisational recruitment strategies, allow organisations to stand out from their competitors and potentially achieve a larger application pool from which to select the best human capital and sustain competitive advantage.

A randomised controlled trial of an online theory-based intervention to improve adult Australians' sun-protective behaviours

Objective. To evaluate the effectiveness of a single-session online theory of planned behaviour (TPB)-based intervention to improve sun-protective attitudes and behaviour among Australian adults. Methods. Australian adults (N = 534; 38.7% males; Mage = 39.3 years) from major cities (80.9%), regional (17.6%) and remote areas (1.5%)were recruited and randomly allocated to an intervention (N=265) and information only group (N = 267). The online intervention focused on fostering positive attitudes, perceptions of normative support, and control perceptions for sun protection. Participants completed questionnaires assessing standard TPB measures (attitude, subjective norm, perceived behavioural control, intention, behaviour) and extended TPB constructs of group norm (friends, family), personal norm, and image norm, pre-intervention (Time 1) and one week (Time 2) and one month post-intervention (Time 3). Repeated Measures Multivariate Analysis of Variance tested intervention effects across time. Results. Intervention participants reported more positive attitudes towards sun protection and used sunprotective measures more often in the subsequent month than participants receiving information only. The intervention effects on control perceptions and norms were non-significant. Conclusions. A theory-based online intervention fostering more favourable attitudes towards sun safety can increase sun protection attitudes and self-reported behaviour among Australian adults in the short term.

Power law distributions in entrepreneurship : implications for theory and research

A long-held assumption in entrepreneurship research is that normal (i.e., Gaussian) distributions characterize variables of interest for both theory and practice. We challenge this assumption by examining more than 12,000 nascent, young, and hyper-growth firms. Results reveal that variables which play central roles in resource-, cognition-, action-, and environment-based entrepreneurship theories exhibit highly skewed power law distributions, where a few outliers account for a disproportionate amount of the distribution's total output. Our results call for the development of new theory to explain and predict the mechanisms that generate these distributions and the outliers therein. We offer a research agenda, including a description of non-traditional methodological approaches, to answer this call.

Reducing workplace safety incidents : bridging the gap between safety culture theory and practice

This thesis explored safety culture in a large Australasian construction and mining organisation, with a view to understanding how theory and practice can be integrated to improve safety culture and related outcomes within the industry. The research comprised three studies that investigated the relationship between safety culture, safety motivation, leadership and safety behaviour, and examined differences in perceptions of safety culture across the organisation. Research methodologies and samples included a modified Delphi method with safety leaders (n=41), a quantitative survey with a cross-section of the organisation (n=2,957), and group interviews with frontline supervisors and workers (n=29).

Seeing it differently: physical education, teacher education and the possibilities of personal construct theory

The celebrated work of Lortie (1975) alerted teacher educators to the extended period of 'apprenticeship' that student teachers have been through before they arrive at teacher education programmes. The subjective implicit theories (Marland, 1992) developed by prospective teachers are shaped by their lifeworld experiences at school and in the case of physical education teachers, their experiences in sport. The biography of physical education teacher education (PETE) students tends to be characterised by ecto-mesomorphic individuals who have been socialised by the rigours of highly competitive sport (Gore, 1990; Macdonald, 1992; Rossi, 1996). We can add to this, the requirements of teacher preparation in physical education which for the most part are dominated by the traditions and rhetoric of the 'natural' bio-physical sciences; largely a legacy of Henry's (1964) work on physical education as an academic discipline, as well as that of Abernathy and Waltz the same year (Abernathy & Waltz, 1964). In the United Kingdom, Curl (1973) further advanced the argument in an attempt to justify human movement as an independent field of study with its own corpus of knowledge. It is little wonder then, that the dominant pedagogical discourse in physical education is, as Tinning (1991) discusses, one of performance pedagogy (see also Hendry, 1986 for an earlier discussion). The knowledge required to support such a discourse could be described as 'official' (Apple, 1993) and it assumes such status by virtue of the power appropriated by and bestowed upon the scientific community in PETE (Macdonald & Tinning, 1995; Sparkes, 1989, 1993). However, there are social reifiers too, and these tend to relate to the social construction of the body (Kirk, 1993; Kirk & Spiller, 1994; Gilroy, 1994) and what Tinning (1985) has termed the Cult of Slenderness. Furthermore the 'slender image' has become a signifier of 'good health'. This is inextricably linked to what might be considered as a health triplex—'exercise = fitness = health' (see Kirk & Colquhoun, 1989; Tinning & Kirk, 1991) which in Australia, underpins curriculum packages such as Daily Physical Education which teachers (often including physical education primary...

Using personal construct theory and narrative methods to facilitate reflexive constructions of teaching physical education

This paper reports on two lengthy studies in Physical education teacher education (PETE) conducted independently but which are epistemologically and methodologically linked. The paper describes how personal construct theory (PCT) and its associated methods provided a means for PETE students to reflexively construct their ideas about teaching physical education over an extended period. Data are drawn from each study in the form of a story of a single participant to indicate how this came about. Furthermore we suggest that PCT might be both a useful research strategy and an effective approach to facilitate professional development in a teacher education setting.

Understanding carers' intention for their child to walk to school : further application of the theory of reasoned action

One quarter of Australian children are overweight or obese (ABS, 2010), putting them at increased risk of physical and psychological health problems (Reilly et al., 2003). Overweight and obesity in childhood tends to persist into adulthood and is associated with premature death and morbidity (Reilly & Kelly, 2011). Increases in Australian children’s weight have coincided with declines in active transportation, such as walking, to school (Salmon et al., 2005). Investigating the factors which influence walking to school is therefore important, particularly since walking to school is a low cost and effective means of reducing excess weight (Rosenberg et al., 2006) that can be easily integrated into daily routine (Brophy et al., 2011). While research in this area has expanded (e.g., Brophy et al., 2011; Giles-Corti et al., 2010), it is largely atheoretical (exceptions Napier et al., 2011). This is an important gap from a social marketing perspective given the use of theory lies at the foundation of the framework (NSMC, 2006) and a continued lack of theory use is observed (Luca & Suggs, 2013). The aim of this paper is to empirically examine a widely adopted theory, the deconstructed Theory of Reasoned Action (TRA) (Fishbein & Azjen, 1975), to understand the relative importance of attitude and subjective norms in determining intentions to increase walk to school behaviour.

Understanding caregivers’ intentions for their child to walk to school : further application of the theory of planned behaviour

Increases in childhood obesity have coincided with declines in active transportation to school. This research builds on largely atheoretical extant literature examining factors that influence walk to school behavior through application of the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB). Understanding caregivers’ decision for their child to walk to/from school is key to developing interventions to promote this cost-effective and accessible health behavior. The results from an online survey of 512 caregivers provide support for the TPB, highlighting the important role of subjective norms. This suggests marketers should nurture caregivers’ perception that important others approve of walking to school.