Addressing issues in sparseness, ecological bias and formulation of the adjacency matrix in Bayesian spatio-temporal analysis of disease counts

The main objective of this PhD was to further develop Bayesian spatio-temporal models (specifically the Conditional Autoregressive (CAR) class of models), for the analysis of sparse disease outcomes such as birth defects. The motivation for the thesis arose from problems encountered when analyzing a large birth defect registry in New South Wales. The specific components and related research objectives of the thesis were developed from gaps in the literature on current formulations of the CAR model, and health service planning requirements. Data from a large probabilistically-linked database from 1990 to 2004, consisting of fields from two separate registries: the Birth Defect Registry (BDR) and Midwives Data Collection (MDC) were used in the analyses in this thesis. The main objective was split into smaller goals. The first goal was to determine how the specification of the neighbourhood weight matrix will affect the smoothing properties of the CAR model, and this is the focus of chapter 6. Secondly, I hoped to evaluate the usefulness of incorporating a zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP) component as well as a shared-component model in terms of modeling a sparse outcome, and this is carried out in chapter 7. The third goal was to identify optimal sampling and sample size schemes designed to select individual level data for a hybrid ecological spatial model, and this is done in chapter 8. Finally, I wanted to put together the earlier improvements to the CAR model, and along with demographic projections, provide forecasts for birth defects at the SLA level. Chapter 9 describes how this is done. For the first objective, I examined a series of neighbourhood weight matrices, and showed how smoothing the relative risk estimates according to similarity by an important covariate (i.e. maternal age) helped improve the model’s ability to recover the underlying risk, as compared to the traditional adjacency (specifically the Queen) method of applying weights. Next, to address the sparseness and excess zeros commonly encountered in the analysis of rare outcomes such as birth defects, I compared a few models, including an extension of the usual Poisson model to encompass excess zeros in the data. This was achieved via a mixture model, which also encompassed the shared component model to improve on the estimation of sparse counts through borrowing strength across a shared component (e.g. latent risk factor/s) with the referent outcome (caesarean section was used in this example). Using the Deviance Information Criteria (DIC), I showed how the proposed model performed better than the usual models, but only when both outcomes shared a strong spatial correlation. The next objective involved identifying the optimal sampling and sample size strategy for incorporating individual-level data with areal covariates in a hybrid study design. I performed extensive simulation studies, evaluating thirteen different sampling schemes along with variations in sample size. This was done in the context of an ecological regression model that incorporated spatial correlation in the outcomes, as well as accommodating both individual and areal measures of covariates. Using the Average Mean Squared Error (AMSE), I showed how a simple random sample of 20% of the SLAs, followed by selecting all cases in the SLAs chosen, along with an equal number of controls, provided the lowest AMSE. The final objective involved combining the improved spatio-temporal CAR model with population (i.e. women) forecasts, to provide 30-year annual estimates of birth defects at the Statistical Local Area (SLA) level in New South Wales, Australia. The projections were illustrated using sixteen different SLAs, representing the various areal measures of socio-economic status and remoteness. A sensitivity analysis of the assumptions used in the projection was also undertaken. By the end of the thesis, I will show how challenges in the spatial analysis of rare diseases such as birth defects can be addressed, by specifically formulating the neighbourhood weight matrix to smooth according to a key covariate (i.e. maternal age), incorporating a ZIP component to model excess zeros in outcomes and borrowing strength from a referent outcome (i.e. caesarean counts). An efficient strategy to sample individual-level data and sample size considerations for rare disease will also be presented. Finally, projections in birth defect categories at the SLA level will be made.

Enhancing transition : an enhanced model of clinical placement for final year nursing students

Specialised support for student nurses making the transition to graduate nurse can be crucial to successful and smooth adjustment, and can create a path to positive and stable career experiences. This paper describes an enhanced model of final year nursing student placements which was trialled in 2006 at the Queensland University of Technology. The model involved collaboration with two major urban health services and resources were developed to support effective transition experiences. Ninety-two students, including 29 trial participants and 63 non-trial participants were assessed on preparedness for professional practice, before and after the trial semester. Results indicated an increase in preparedness across the entire sample, but students participating in the trial did not differ significantly in overall preparedness change from those who did not participate. Higher baseline preparedness in the trial group highlighted the possibility that proactive students who choose enrichment experiences tend to be likelier to gain benefit from such options than those who do not. Qualitative findings from focus groups conducted with 12 transition group students highlighted that one of the main beneficial aspects of the experience for students was the sense of belonging to a team that understood their learning needs and could work constructively with them.

The land use and public transport accessibility index : phase two final report

The Urban Research Program (URP) was established in 2003 as strategic research and community engagement initiative of Griffith University. The strategic foci of the Urban Research Program are research and advocacy in an urban regional context. The Urban Research Program seeks to improve understanding of, and develop innovative responses to Australia's urban challenges and opportunities by providing training assistance. The authors aim to make the results of their research and advocacy work available as freely and widely as possible.

Finding Australia's social enterprise sector : final report

The forms social enterprises can take and the industries they operate in are so many and various that it has always been a challenge to define, find and count social enterprises. In 2009 Social Traders partnered with the Australian Centre for Philanthropy and Nonprofit Studies (ACPNS) at Queensland University of Technology to define social enterprise and, for the first time in Australia, to identify and map the social enterprise sector: its scope, its variety of forms, its reasons for trading, its financial dimensions, and the individuals and communities social enterprises aim to benefit.

Development of a Resource for Parents with Advanced Cancer: What do Parents Want?

OBJECTIVE: Parents coping with a diagnosis of advanced cancer experience distress and guilt about the impact of the disease on their children but report that there are few resources specific to advanced disease to guide and support them in discussions with their children. Although some resources have been developed to assist parents with advanced cancer, it appears that these are not widely disseminated. METHODS: To determine the need for a brief resource that could be given to parents at the point of diagnosis of advanced cancer, including its content, in-depth interviews were conducted with eight women with advanced breast cancer. RESULTS: Women confirmed that they had received minimal assistance from health professionals in discussing the diagnosis with their children, and even when professional counselors were accessed they were not always attuned to the specific needs of parents with advanced cancer. Women felt frustrated that information they did access focused on early disease and lacked the details women felt they needed in coping with advanced cancer. Women felt that there was a need for a brief resource that reassured parents about the impact of the cancer on their children, including practical strategies to help them cope and examples of the ways other parents had responded to difficult questions such as about parental death. A draft resource was developed, critically reviewed by the participants, and their comments incorporated into a final version. SIGNIFICANCE OF RESULTS: This article expands on the themes highlighted by women as important to assist parents with advanced cancer, including the final resource that was developed.

The Early Prevention of Obesity in CHildren (EPOCH) collaboration : an individual patient data prospective meta-analysis

Background: Efforts to prevent the development of overweight and obesity have increasingly focused early in the life course as we recognise that both metabolic and behavioural patterns are often established within the first few years of life. Randomised controlled trials (RCTs) of interventions are even more powerful when, with forethought, they are synthesised into an individual patient data (IPD) prospective meta-analysis (PMA). An IPD PMA is a unique research design where several trials are identified for inclusion in an analysis before any of the individual trial results become known and the data are provided for each randomised patient. This methodology minimises the publication and selection bias often associated with a retrospective meta-analysis by allowing hypotheses, analysis methods and selection criteria to be specified a priori. Methods/Design: The Early Prevention of Obesity in CHildren (EPOCH) Collaboration was formed in 2009. The main objective of the EPOCH Collaboration is to determine if early intervention for childhood obesity impacts on body mass index (BMI) z scores at age 18-24 months. Additional research questions will focus on whether early intervention has an impact on children’s dietary quality, TV viewing time, duration of breastfeeding and parenting styles. This protocol includes the hypotheses, inclusion criteria and outcome measures to be used in the IPD PMA. The sample size of the combined dataset at final outcome assessment (approximately 1800 infants) will allow greater precision when exploring differences in the effect of early intervention with respect to pre-specified participant- and intervention-level characteristics. Discussion: Finalisation of the data collection procedures and analysis plans will be complete by the end of 2010. Data collection and analysis will occur during 2011-2012 and results should be available by 2013. Trial registration number: ACTRN12610000789066

Climate variability and hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome transmission in northeastern China

Background: The transmission of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) is influenced by climatic variables. However, few studies have examined the quantitative relationship between climate variation and HFRS transmission. ---------- Objective: We examined the potential impact of climate variability on HFRS transmission and developed climate-based forecasting models for HFRS in northeastern China. ---------- Methods: We obtained data on monthly counts of reported HFRS cases in Elunchun and Molidawahaner counties for 1997–2007 from the Inner Mongolia Center for Disease Control and Prevention and climate data from the Chinese Bureau of Meteorology. Cross-correlations assessed crude associations between climate variables, including rainfall, land surface temperature (LST), relative humidity (RH), and the multivariate El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) index (MEI) and monthly HFRS cases over a range of lags. We used time-series Poisson regression models to examine the independent contribution of climatic variables to HFRS transmission. ----------- Results: Cross-correlation analyses showed that rainfall, LST, RH, and MEI were significantly associated with monthly HFRS cases with lags of 3–5 months in both study areas. The results of Poisson regression indicated that after controlling for the autocorrelation, seasonality, and long-term trend, rainfall, LST, RH, and MEI with lags of 3–5 months were associated with HFRS in both study areas. The final model had good accuracy in forecasting the occurrence of HFRS. ---------- Conclusions: Climate variability plays a significant role in HFRS transmission in northeastern China. The model developed in this study has implications for HFRS control and prevention.

Early Intervention Program Final Evaluation Report

The Early Intervention Program aims to facilitate contact between children and their non-residential parent as soon as practicable after breakdown and separation of the immediate family unit. The Program is auspiced by the Sunshine Coast Family Contact Centre Association. The Program has been offered since late 2007 following receipt of a grant from the National Community Crime Prevention Program [NCCP] for Domestic Violence Prevention. This external evaluator report summarised main achievements with respect to meeting program objectives and also makes recommentations in view the of the continuation of this innovative program.

Australian ePortfolio Project–Stage 2 ePortfolio use by university students in Australia : Developing a sustainable community of practice Case studies extracted from the final project report December 2009

Fourteen sase studies extracted from the final project report - December 2009 Australian Flexible Learning Framework: E-portfolios Community of Practice (Aus) Personal learning plans and ePortfolio (Aus) RMIT University: Introducing ePortfolios (Aus) ePortfolio Practice: ALTC Exchange (Aus) Australian PebblePad User Group (APpUG) (Aus) ePortfolios in the library and information services sector (Aus) PDP and ePortfolios UK (UK) SURF NL Portfolio (Netherlands) University of Canterbury ePortfolio (NZ) AAEEBL: Association for Authentic, Experiential and Evidence-Based Learning (USA) Midlands Eportfolio Group, West Midlands(UK) EPAC: Electronic Portfolio Action and Communication (USA) Scottish Higher Education PDP Forum (UK) Centre for Recording Achievement (CRA)(UK)

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