177 resultados para PROPORTIONAL HAZARD AND ACCELERATED FAILURE MODELS
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1.Description of the Work The Fleet Store was devised as a creative output to establish an exhibition linked to a fashion business model where emerging designers were encouraged to research new and innovative strategies for creating design-driven and commercial collections for a public consumer. This was a project that was devised to break down the perceptions of emerging fashion designers that designing commercial collections linked to a sustainable business model is a boring and unnecessary process. The focus was to demystify the business of fashion and to link its importance to a design-driven and public outcome that is more familiar to fashion designers. The criterion for participation was that all designers had to be registered as a business with the Australian Taxation Office. Designers were chosen from the Creative Enterprise Australia Fashion Business Incubator, the QUT fashion graduate alumni and current QUT fashion design and double degree (fashion and business) students with existing businesses. The project evolved from a series of collaborative workshops where designers were introduced to new and innovative creative industries’ business models and the processes, costings and timings involved to create a niche, sustainable business for a public exhibition of design-driven commercial collections. All designers initiated their own business infra-structure but were then introduced to the concept of collaboration for successful and profitable exhibition and business outcomes. Collaborative strategies such as crowd funding, crowd sourcing, peer to peer mentoring and manufacturing were all researched, and strategies for the establishment of the retail exhibition were all devised in a collaborative environment. All participants also took on roles outside their ‘designer’ background to create a retail exhibition that was creative but also had critical mass and aesthetic for the consumer. The Fleet Store ‘popped up’ for 2 weeks (10 days), in a heritage-listed building in an inner city location. Passers-by were important, but the main consumer was enlisted by the use of interest and investment from crowd sourcing, crowd funding, ethical marketing, corporate social responsibility projects and collaborative public relations and social media strategies. The research has furthered discussion on innovative strategies for emerging fashion designers to initiate and maintain sustainable businesses and suggests that collaboration combined with a design-driven and business focus can create a sustainable and economically viable retail exhibition. 2. Research Statement Research Background The research field involved developing a new ethical, design-driven, collaborative and sustainable model for fashion design practice and management. The research asked can a public, design-driven, collaborative retail exhibition create a platform for promoting creative, innovative and sustainable business models for emerging fashion designers. The methodology was primarily practice-led as all participants were designers in their own right and the project manager acted as a mentor and curator to guide the process and analyse the potential of the research question. The Fleet Store offers new knowledge in design practice and management; with the creation of a model where design outcomes and business models are inextricably linked to the success of the creative output. Key innovations include extending the commercialisation of emerging fashion businesses by creating a curated retail gallery for collaborative and sustainable strategies to support niche fashion designer labels. This has contributed to a broader conversation on how to nurture and sustain competitive Australian fashion designers/labels. Research Contribution and Significance The Fleet Store has contributed to a growing body of research into innovative and sustainable business models for niche fashion and creative industries’ practitioners. All participants have maintained their business infra-structure and many are currently growing their businesses, using the strategies tested for the Fleet Store. The exhibition space was visited by over 1,000 people and sales of $27,000 were made in 10 days of opening. (Follow up sales of $3,000 has also been reported.) Three of the designers were ‘discovered’ from the exhibition and have received substantial orders from high profile national buyers and retailers for next season delivery. Several participants have since collaborated to create other pop up retail environments and are now mentoring other emerging designers on the significance of a collaborative retail exhibition to consolidate niche business models for emerging fashion designers.
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Rheological property of F-actin cytoskeleton is significant to the restructuring of cytoskeleton under a variety of cell activities. This study numerically validates the rheological property of F-actin cytoskeleton is not only a result of kinetic energy dissipation of F-actin, but also greatly depends on the configuration remodeling of networks structure. Both filament geometry and crosslinker properties can affect the remodeling of F-actin cytoskeleton. The crosslinker unbinding is found to dissipate energy and induce prominent stress relaxation in the F-actin adjacent to cross-linkages. Coupled with F-actin elasticity, the energy dissipation and stress relaxation are more significant in bundled F-actin networks than in single F-actin networks.
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In a very recent study [1] the Renormalisation Group (RNG) turbulence model was used to obtain flow predictions in a strongly swirling quarl burner, and was found to perform well in predicting certain features that are not well captured using less sophisticated models of turbulence. The implication is that the RNG approach should provide an economical and reliable tool for the prediction of swirling flows in combustor and furnace geometries commonly encountered in technological applications. To test this hypothesis the present work considers flow in a model furnace for which experimental data is available [2]. The essential features of the flow which differentiate it from the previous study [1] are that the annular air jet entry is relatively narrow and the base wall of the cylindrical furnace is at 90 degrees to the inlet pipe. For swirl numbers of order 1 the resulting flow is highly complex with significant inner and outer recirculation regions. The RNG and standard k-epsilon models are used to model the flow for both swirling and non-swirling entry jets and the results compared with experimental data [2]. Near wall viscous effects are accounted for in both models via the standard wall function formulation [3]. For the RNG model, additional computations with grid placement extending well inside the near wall viscous-affected sublayer are performed in order to assess the low Reynolds number capabilities of the model.
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Assessing and prioritising cost-effective strategies to mitigate the impacts of traffic incidents and accidents on non-recurrent congestion on major roads represents a significant challenge for road network managers. This research examines the influence of numerous factors associated with incidents of various types on their duration. It presents a comprehensive traffic incident data mining and analysis by developing an incident duration model based on twelve months of incident data obtained from the Australian freeway network. Parametric accelerated failure time (AFT) survival models of incident duration were developed, including log-logistic, lognormal, and Weibul-considering both fixed and random parameters, as well as a Weibull model with gamma heterogeneity. The Weibull AFT models with random parameters were appropriate for modelling incident duration arising from crashes and hazards. A Weibull model with gamma heterogeneity was most suitable for modelling incident duration of stationary vehicles. Significant variables affecting incident duration include characteristics of the incidents (severity, type, towing requirements, etc.), and location, time of day, and traffic characteristics of the incident. Moreover, the findings reveal no significant effects of infrastructure and weather on incident duration. A significant and unique contribution of this paper is that the durations of each type of incident are uniquely different and respond to different factors. The results of this study are useful for traffic incident management agencies to implement strategies to reduce incident duration, leading to reduced congestion, secondary incidents, and the associated human and economic losses.
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The ability to estimate the expected Remaining Useful Life (RUL) is critical to reduce maintenance costs, operational downtime and safety hazards. In most industries, reliability analysis is based on the Reliability Centred Maintenance (RCM) and lifetime distribution models. In these models, the lifetime of an asset is estimated using failure time data; however, statistically sufficient failure time data are often difficult to attain in practice due to the fixed time-based replacement and the small population of identical assets. When condition indicator data are available in addition to failure time data, one of the alternate approaches to the traditional reliability models is the Condition-Based Maintenance (CBM). The covariate-based hazard modelling is one of CBM approaches. There are a number of covariate-based hazard models; however, little study has been conducted to evaluate the performance of these models in asset life prediction using various condition indicators and data availability. This paper reviews two covariate-based hazard models, Proportional Hazard Model (PHM) and Proportional Covariate Model (PCM). To assess these models’ performance, the expected RUL is compared to the actual RUL. Outcomes demonstrate that both models achieve convincingly good results in RUL prediction; however, PCM has smaller absolute prediction error. In addition, PHM shows over-smoothing tendency compared to PCM in sudden changes of condition data. Moreover, the case studies show PCM is not being biased in the case of small sample size.
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The ability to estimate the asset reliability and the probability of failure is critical to reducing maintenance costs, operation downtime, and safety hazards. Predicting the survival time and the probability of failure in future time is an indispensable requirement in prognostics and asset health management. In traditional reliability models, the lifetime of an asset is estimated using failure event data, alone; however, statistically sufficient failure event data are often difficult to attain in real-life situations due to poor data management, effective preventive maintenance, and the small population of identical assets in use. Condition indicators and operating environment indicators are two types of covariate data that are normally obtained in addition to failure event and suspended data. These data contain significant information about the state and health of an asset. Condition indicators reflect the level of degradation of assets while operating environment indicators accelerate or decelerate the lifetime of assets. When these data are available, an alternative approach to the traditional reliability analysis is the modelling of condition indicators and operating environment indicators and their failure-generating mechanisms using a covariate-based hazard model. The literature review indicates that a number of covariate-based hazard models have been developed. All of these existing covariate-based hazard models were developed based on the principle theory of the Proportional Hazard Model (PHM). However, most of these models have not attracted much attention in the field of machinery prognostics. Moreover, due to the prominence of PHM, attempts at developing alternative models, to some extent, have been stifled, although a number of alternative models to PHM have been suggested. The existing covariate-based hazard models neglect to fully utilise three types of asset health information (including failure event data (i.e. observed and/or suspended), condition data, and operating environment data) into a model to have more effective hazard and reliability predictions. In addition, current research shows that condition indicators and operating environment indicators have different characteristics and they are non-homogeneous covariate data. Condition indicators act as response variables (or dependent variables) whereas operating environment indicators act as explanatory variables (or independent variables). However, these non-homogenous covariate data were modelled in the same way for hazard prediction in the existing covariate-based hazard models. The related and yet more imperative question is how both of these indicators should be effectively modelled and integrated into the covariate-based hazard model. This work presents a new approach for addressing the aforementioned challenges. The new covariate-based hazard model, which termed as Explicit Hazard Model (EHM), explicitly and effectively incorporates all three available asset health information into the modelling of hazard and reliability predictions and also drives the relationship between actual asset health and condition measurements as well as operating environment measurements. The theoretical development of the model and its parameter estimation method are demonstrated in this work. EHM assumes that the baseline hazard is a function of the both time and condition indicators. Condition indicators provide information about the health condition of an asset; therefore they update and reform the baseline hazard of EHM according to the health state of asset at given time t. Some examples of condition indicators are the vibration of rotating machinery, the level of metal particles in engine oil analysis, and wear in a component, to name but a few. Operating environment indicators in this model are failure accelerators and/or decelerators that are included in the covariate function of EHM and may increase or decrease the value of the hazard from the baseline hazard. These indicators caused by the environment in which an asset operates, and that have not been explicitly identified by the condition indicators (e.g. Loads, environmental stresses, and other dynamically changing environment factors). While the effects of operating environment indicators could be nought in EHM; condition indicators could emerge because these indicators are observed and measured as long as an asset is operational and survived. EHM has several advantages over the existing covariate-based hazard models. One is this model utilises three different sources of asset health data (i.e. population characteristics, condition indicators, and operating environment indicators) to effectively predict hazard and reliability. Another is that EHM explicitly investigates the relationship between condition and operating environment indicators associated with the hazard of an asset. Furthermore, the proportionality assumption, which most of the covariate-based hazard models suffer from it, does not exist in EHM. According to the sample size of failure/suspension times, EHM is extended into two forms: semi-parametric and non-parametric. The semi-parametric EHM assumes a specified lifetime distribution (i.e. Weibull distribution) in the form of the baseline hazard. However, for more industry applications, due to sparse failure event data of assets, the analysis of such data often involves complex distributional shapes about which little is known. Therefore, to avoid the restrictive assumption of the semi-parametric EHM about assuming a specified lifetime distribution for failure event histories, the non-parametric EHM, which is a distribution free model, has been developed. The development of EHM into two forms is another merit of the model. A case study was conducted using laboratory experiment data to validate the practicality of the both semi-parametric and non-parametric EHMs. The performance of the newly-developed models is appraised using the comparison amongst the estimated results of these models and the other existing covariate-based hazard models. The comparison results demonstrated that both the semi-parametric and non-parametric EHMs outperform the existing covariate-based hazard models. Future research directions regarding to the new parameter estimation method in the case of time-dependent effects of covariates and missing data, application of EHM in both repairable and non-repairable systems using field data, and a decision support model in which linked to the estimated reliability results, are also identified.
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Traffic incidents are key contributors to non-recurrent congestion, potentially generating significant delay. Factors that influence the duration of incidents are important to understand so that effective mitigation strategies can be implemented. To identify and quantify the effects of influential factors, a methodology for studying total incident duration based on historical data from an ‘integrated database’ is proposed. Incident duration models are developed using a selected freeway segment in the Southeast Queensland, Australia network. The models include incident detection and recovery time as components of incident duration. A hazard-based duration modelling approach is applied to model incident duration as a function of a variety of factors that influence traffic incident duration. Parametric accelerated failure time survival models are developed to capture heterogeneity as a function of explanatory variables, with both fixed and random parameters specifications. The analysis reveals that factors affecting incident duration include incident characteristics (severity, type, injury, medical requirements, etc.), infrastructure characteristics (roadway shoulder availability), time of day, and traffic characteristics. The results indicate that event type durations are uniquely different, thus requiring different responses to effectively clear them. Furthermore, the results highlight the presence of unobserved incident duration heterogeneity as captured by the random parameter models, suggesting that additional factors need to be considered in future modelling efforts.
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An effective prognostics program will provide ample lead time for maintenance engineers to schedule a repair and to acquire replacement components before catastrophic failures occur. This paper presents a technique for accurate assessment of the remnant life of machines based on health state probability estimation technique. For comparative study of the proposed model with the proportional hazard model (PHM), experimental bearing failure data from an accelerated bearing test rig were used. The result shows that the proposed prognostic model based on health state probability estimation can provide a more accurate prediction capability than the commonly used PHM in bearing failure case study.
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Traffic congestion has been a growing issue in many metropolitan areas during recent years, which necessitates the identification of its key contributors and development of sustainable strategies to help decrease its adverse impacts on traffic networks. Road incidents generally and crashes specifically have been acknowledged as the cause of a large proportion of travel delays in urban areas and account for 25% to 60% of traffic congestion on motorways. Identifying the critical determinants of travel delays has been of significant importance to the incident management systems which constantly collect and store the incident duration data. This study investigates the individual and simultaneous differential effects of the relevant determinants on motorway crash duration probabilities. In particular, it applies parametric Accelerated Failure Time (AFT) hazard-based models to develop in-depth insights into how the crash-specific characteristic and the associated temporal and infrastructural determinants impact the duration. AFT models with both fixed and random parameters have been calibrated on one year of traffic crash records from two major Australian motorways in South East Queensland and the differential effects of determinants on crash survival functions have been studied on these two motorways individually. A comprehensive spectrum of commonly used parametric fixed parameter AFT models, including generalized gamma and generalized F families, have been compared to random parameter AFT structures in terms of goodness of fit to the duration data and as a result, the random parameter Weibull AFT model has been selected as the most appropriate model. Significant determinants of motorway crash duration included traffic diversion requirement, crash injury type, number and type of vehicles involved in a crash, day of week and time of day, towing support requirement and damage to the infrastructure. A major finding of this research is that the motorways under study are significantly different in terms of crash durations; such that motorway exhibits durations that are on average 19% shorter compared to the durations on motorway. The differential effects of explanatory variables on crash durations are also different on the two motorways. The detailed presented analysis confirms that, looking at the motorway network as a whole, neglecting the individual differences between roads, can lead to erroneous interpretations of duration and inefficient strategies for mitigating travel delays along a particular motorway.
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Modern Engineering Asset Management (EAM) requires the accurate assessment of current and the prediction of future asset health condition. Suitable mathematical models that are capable of predicting Time-to-Failure (TTF) and the probability of failure in future time are essential. In traditional reliability models, the lifetime of assets is estimated using failure time data. However, in most real-life situations and industry applications, the lifetime of assets is influenced by different risk factors, which are called covariates. The fundamental notion in reliability theory is the failure time of a system and its covariates. These covariates change stochastically and may influence and/or indicate the failure time. Research shows that many statistical models have been developed to estimate the hazard of assets or individuals with covariates. An extensive amount of literature on hazard models with covariates (also termed covariate models), including theory and practical applications, has emerged. This paper is a state-of-the-art review of the existing literature on these covariate models in both the reliability and biomedical fields. One of the major purposes of this expository paper is to synthesise these models from both industrial reliability and biomedical fields and then contextually group them into non-parametric and semi-parametric models. Comments on their merits and limitations are also presented. Another main purpose of this paper is to comprehensively review and summarise the current research on the development of the covariate models so as to facilitate the application of more covariate modelling techniques into prognostics and asset health management.
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Survival probability prediction using covariate-based hazard approach is a known statistical methodology in engineering asset health management. We have previously reported the semi-parametric Explicit Hazard Model (EHM) which incorporates three types of information: population characteristics; condition indicators; and operating environment indicators for hazard prediction. This model assumes the baseline hazard has the form of the Weibull distribution. To avoid this assumption, this paper presents the non-parametric EHM which is a distribution-free covariate-based hazard model. In this paper, an application of the non-parametric EHM is demonstrated via a case study. In this case study, survival probabilities of a set of resistance elements using the non-parametric EHM are compared with the Weibull proportional hazard model and traditional Weibull model. The results show that the non-parametric EHM can effectively predict asset life using the condition indicator, operating environment indicator, and failure history.
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Organizations seeking improvements in their performance are increasingly exploring alternative models and approaches for providing support services; one such approach being Shared Services. Because of the possible consequential impact of Shared Services on organizations, and given that information systems (IS) is both an enabler of Shared Services (for other functional areas) as well as a promising area for Shared Services application, Shared Services is an important area for research in the IS field. Though Shared Services has been extensively adopted on the promise of economies of scale and scope, factors of Shared Services success (or failure) have received little research attention. This paper reports the distillation of success and failure factors of Shared Services from an IS perspective. Employing NVIVO and content analysis of 158 selected articles, 9 key success factors and 5 failure factors are identified, suggesting important implications for practice and further research.
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Mutations in multiple oncogenes including KRAS, CTNNB1, PIK3CA and FGFR2 have been identified in endometrial cancer. The aim of this study was to provide insight into the clinicopathological features associated with patterns of mutation in these genes, a necessary step in planning targeted therapies for endometrial cancer. 466 endometrioid endometrial tumors were tested for mutations in FGFR2, KRAS, CTNNB1, and PIK3CA. The relationships between mutation status, tumor microsatellite instability (MSI) and clinicopathological features including overall survival (OS) and disease-free survival (DFS) were evaluated using Kaplan-Meier survival analysis and Cox proportional hazard models. Mutations were identified in FGFR2 (48/466); KRAS (87/464); CTNNB1 (88/454) and PIK3CA (104/464). KRAS and FGFR2 mutations were significantly more common, and CTNNB1 mutations less common, in MSI positive tumors. KRAS and FGFR2 occurred in a near mutually exclusive pattern (p = 0.05) and, surprisingly, mutations in KRAS and CTNNB1 also occurred in a near mutually exclusive pattern (p = 0.0002). Multivariate analysis revealed that mutation in KRAS and FGFR2 showed a trend (p = 0.06) towards longer and shorter DFS, respectively. In the 386 patients with early stage disease (stage I and II), FGFR2 mutation was significantly associated with shorter DFS (HR = 3.24; 95% confidence interval, CI, 1.35-7.77; p = 0.008) and OS (HR = 2.00; 95% CI 1.09-3.65; p = 0.025) and KRAS was associated with longer DFS (HR = 0.23; 95% CI 0.05-0.97; p = 0.045). In conclusion, although KRAS and FGFR2 mutations share similar activation of the MAPK pathway, our data suggest very different roles in tumor biology. This has implications for the implementation of anti-FGFR or anti-MEK biologic therapies.
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Ambiguity resolution plays a crucial role in real time kinematic GNSS positioning which gives centimetre precision positioning results if all the ambiguities in each epoch are correctly fixed to integers. However, the incorrectly fixed ambiguities can result in large positioning offset up to several meters without notice. Hence, ambiguity validation is essential to control the ambiguity resolution quality. Currently, the most popular ambiguity validation is ratio test. The criterion of ratio test is often empirically determined. Empirically determined criterion can be dangerous, because a fixed criterion cannot fit all scenarios and does not directly control the ambiguity resolution risk. In practice, depending on the underlying model strength, the ratio test criterion can be too conservative for some model and becomes too risky for others. A more rational test method is to determine the criterion according to the underlying model and user requirement. Miss-detected incorrect integers will lead to a hazardous result, which should be strictly controlled. In ambiguity resolution miss-detected rate is often known as failure rate. In this paper, a fixed failure rate ratio test method is presented and applied in analysis of GPS and Compass positioning scenarios. A fixed failure rate approach is derived from the integer aperture estimation theory, which is theoretically rigorous. The criteria table for ratio test is computed based on extensive data simulations in the approach. The real-time users can determine the ratio test criterion by looking up the criteria table. This method has been applied in medium distance GPS ambiguity resolution but multi-constellation and high dimensional scenarios haven't been discussed so far. In this paper, a general ambiguity validation model is derived based on hypothesis test theory, and fixed failure rate approach is introduced, especially the relationship between ratio test threshold and failure rate is examined. In the last, Factors that influence fixed failure rate approach ratio test threshold is discussed according to extensive data simulation. The result shows that fixed failure rate approach is a more reasonable ambiguity validation method with proper stochastic model.
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Matrix metalloproteinases (MMPs), in particular the gelatinases (MMP-2 and -9), play a significant role in tumour invasion and angiogenesis. The expression and activities of MMPs have not been characterised in malignant mesothelioma (MM) tumour samples. In a prospective study, gelatinase activity was evaluated in homogenised supernatants of snap frozen MM (n = 35), inflamed pleura (IP, n = 12) and uninflammed pleura (UP, n = 14) tissue specimens by semiquantitative gelatin zymography. Matrix metalloproteinases were correlated with clinicopathological factors and with survival using Kaplan-Meier and Cox proportional hazard models. In MM, pro- and active MMP-2 levels were significantly greater than for MMP-9 (P = 0.006, P<0.001). Active MMP-2 was significantly greater in MM than in UP (P=0.04). MMP-2 activity was equivalent between IP and MM, but both pro- and active MMP-9 activities were greater in IP (P=0.02, P=0.009). While there were trends towards poor survival with increasing total and pro-MMP-2 activity (P=0.08) in univariate analysis, they were both independent poor prognostic factors in multivariate analysis in conjunction with weight loss (pro-MMP-2 P = 0.03, total MMP-2 P = 0.04). Total and pro-MMP-2 also contributed to the Cancer and Leukemia Group B prognostic groups. MMP-9 activities were not prognostic. Matrix metalloproteinases, and in particular MMP-2, the most abundant gelatinase, may play an important role in MM tumour growth and metastasis. Agents that reduce MMP synthesis and/or activity may have a role to play in the management of MM. © 2003 Cancer Research UK.