Estimating short and long-term residential demand for electricity : new evidence from Sri Lanka

This study investigates the short-run dynamics and long-run equilibrium relationship between residential electricity demand and factors influencing demand - per capita income, price of electricity, price of kerosene oil and price of liquefied petroleum gas - using annual data for Sri Lanka for the period, 1960-2007. The study uses unit root, cointegration and error-correction models. The long-run demand elasticities of income, own price and price of kerosene oil (substitute) were estimated to be 0.78, - 0.62, and 0.14 respectively. The short-run elasticities for the same variables were estimated to be 032, - 0.16 and 0.10 respectively. Liquefied petroleum (LP) gas is a substitute for electricity only in the short-run with an elasticity 0.09. The main findings of the paper support the following (1) increasing the price of electricity is not the most effective tool to reduce electricity consumption (2) existing subsidies on electricity consumption can be removed without reducing government revenue (3) the long-run income elasticity of demand shows that any future increase in household incomes is likely to significantly increase the demand for electricity and(4) any power generation plans which consider only current per capita consumption and population growth should be revised taking into account the potential future income increases in order to avoid power shortages ill the country.

Towards a new model of successful faking

Existing literature has failed to find robust relationships between individual differences and the ability to fake psychological tests, possibly due to limitations in how successful faking is operationalised. In order to fake, individuals must alter their original profile to create a particular impression. Currently, successful faking is operationalised through statistical definitions, informant ratings, known groups comparisons, the use of archival and baseline data, and breaches of validity indexes. However, there are many methodological limitations to these approaches. This research proposed a three component model of successful faking to address this, where an original response is manipulated into a strategic response, which must match a criteria target. Further, by operationalising successful faking in this manner, this research takes into account the fact that individuals may have been successful in reaching their implicitly created profile, but that this may not have matched the criteria they were instructed to fake.Participants (N=48, 22 students and 26 non-students) completed the BDI-II honestly. Participants then faked the BDI-II as if they had no, mild, moderate and severe depression, as well as completing a checklist revealing which symptoms they thought indicated each level of depression. Findings were consistent with a three component model of successful faking, where individuals effectively changed their profile to what they believed was required, however this profile differed from the criteria defined by the psychometric norms of the test.One of the foremost issues for research in this area is the inconsistent manner in which successful faking is operationalised. This research allowed successful faking to be operationalised in an objective, quantifiable manner. Using this model as a template may allow researchers better understanding of the processes involved in faking, including the role of strategies and abilities in determining the outcome of test dissimulation.

A new multilevel converter configuration for high power and high quality applications

The Queensland University of Technology (QUT) allows the presentation of theses for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy in the format of published or submitted papers, where such papers have been published, accepted or submitted during the period of candidature. This thesis is composed of ten published /submitted papers and book chapters of which nine have been published and one is under review. This project is financially supported by an Australian Research Council (ARC) Discovery Grant with the aim of investigating multilevel topologies for high quality and high power applications, with specific emphasis on renewable energy systems. The rapid evolution of renewable energy within the last several years has resulted in the design of efficient power converters suitable for medium and high-power applications such as wind turbine and photovoltaic (PV) systems. Today, the industrial trend is moving away from heavy and bulky passive components to power converter systems that use more and more semiconductor elements controlled by powerful processor systems. However, it is hard to connect the traditional converters to the high and medium voltage grids, as a single power switch cannot stand at high voltage. For these reasons, a new family of multilevel inverters has appeared as a solution for working with higher voltage levels. Besides this important feature, multilevel converters have the capability to generate stepped waveforms. Consequently, in comparison with conventional two-level inverters, they present lower switching losses, lower voltage stress across loads, lower electromagnetic interference (EMI) and higher quality output waveforms. These properties enable the connection of renewable energy sources directly to the grid without using expensive, bulky, heavy line transformers. Additionally, they minimize the size of the passive filter and increase the durability of electrical devices. However, multilevel converters have only been utilised in very particular applications, mainly due to the structural limitations, high cost and complexity of the multilevel converter system and control. New developments in the fields of power semiconductor switches and processors will favor the multilevel converters for many other fields of application. The main application for the multilevel converter presented in this work is the front-end power converter in renewable energy systems. Diode-clamped and cascade converters are the most common type of multilevel converters widely used in different renewable energy system applications. However, some drawbacks – such as capacitor voltage imbalance, number of components, and complexity of the control system – still exist, and these are investigated in the framework of this thesis. Various simulations using software simulation tools are undertaken and are used to study different cases. The feasibility of the developments is underlined with a series of experimental results. This thesis is divided into two main sections. The first section focuses on solving the capacitor voltage imbalance for a wide range of applications, and on decreasing the complexity of the control strategy on the inverter side. The idea of using sharing switches at the output structure of the DC-DC front-end converters is proposed to balance the series DC link capacitors. A new family of multioutput DC-DC converters is proposed for renewable energy systems connected to the DC link voltage of diode-clamped converters. The main objective of this type of converter is the sharing of the total output voltage into several series voltage levels using sharing switches. This solves the problems associated with capacitor voltage imbalance in diode-clamped multilevel converters. These converters adjust the variable and unregulated DC voltage generated by renewable energy systems (such as PV) to the desirable series multiple voltage levels at the inverter DC side. A multi-output boost (MOB) converter, with one inductor and series output voltage, is presented. This converter is suitable for renewable energy systems based on diode-clamped converters because it boosts the low output voltage and provides the series capacitor at the output side. A simple control strategy using cross voltage control with internal current loop is presented to obtain the desired voltage levels at the output voltage. The proposed topology and control strategy are validated by simulation and hardware results. Using the idea of voltage sharing switches, the circuit structure of different topologies of multi-output DC-DC converters – or multi-output voltage sharing (MOVS) converters – have been proposed. In order to verify the feasibility of this topology and its application, steady state and dynamic analyses have been carried out. Simulation and experiments using the proposed control strategy have verified the mathematical analysis. The second part of this thesis addresses the second problem of multilevel converters: the need to improve their quality with minimum cost and complexity. This is related to utilising asymmetrical multilevel topologies instead of conventional multilevel converters; this can increase the quality of output waveforms with a minimum number of components. It also allows for a reduction in the cost and complexity of systems while maintaining the same output quality, or for an increase in the quality while maintaining the same cost and complexity. Therefore, the asymmetrical configuration for two common types of multilevel converters – diode-clamped and cascade converters – is investigated. Also, as well as addressing the maximisation of the output voltage resolution, some technical issues – such as adjacent switching vectors – should be taken into account in asymmetrical multilevel configurations to keep the total harmonic distortion (THD) and switching losses to a minimum. Thus, the asymmetrical diode-clamped converter is proposed. An appropriate asymmetrical DC link arrangement is presented for four-level diode-clamped converters by keeping adjacent switching vectors. In this way, five-level inverter performance is achieved for the same level of complexity of the four-level inverter. Dealing with the capacitor voltage imbalance problem in asymmetrical diodeclamped converters has inspired the proposal for two different DC-DC topologies with a suitable control strategy. A Triple-Output Boost (TOB) converter and a Boost 3-Output Voltage Sharing (Boost-3OVS) converter connected to the four-level diode-clamped converter are proposed to arrange the proposed asymmetrical DC link for the high modulation indices and unity power factor. Cascade converters have shown their abilities and strengths in medium and high power applications. Using asymmetrical H-bridge inverters, more voltage levels can be generated in output voltage with the same number of components as the symmetrical converters. The concept of cascading multilevel H-bridge cells is used to propose a fifteen-level cascade inverter using a four-level H-bridge symmetrical diode-clamped converter, cascaded with classical two-level Hbridge inverters. A DC voltage ratio of cells is presented to obtain maximum voltage levels on output voltage, with adjacent switching vectors between all possible voltage levels; this can minimize the switching losses. This structure can save five isolated DC sources and twelve switches in comparison to conventional cascade converters with series two-level H bridge inverters. To increase the quality in presented hybrid topology with minimum number of components, a new cascade inverter is verified by cascading an asymmetrical four-level H-bridge diode-clamped inverter. An inverter with nineteen-level performance was achieved. This synthesizes more voltage levels with lower voltage and current THD, rather than using a symmetrical diode-clamped inverter with the same configuration and equivalent number of power components. Two different predictive current control methods for the switching states selection are proposed to minimise either losses or THD of voltage in hybrid converters. High voltage spikes at switching time in experimental results and investigation of a diode-clamped inverter structure raised another problem associated with high-level high voltage multilevel converters. Power switching components with fast switching, combined with hard switched-converters, produce high di/dt during turn off time. Thus, stray inductance of interconnections becomes an important issue and raises overvoltage and EMI issues correlated to the number of components. Planar busbar is a good candidate to reduce interconnection inductance in high power inverters compared with cables. The effect of different transient current loops on busbar physical structure of the high-voltage highlevel diode-clamped converters is highlighted. Design considerations of proper planar busbar are also presented to optimise the overall design of diode-clamped converters.

Robust image hashing using higher order spectral features

Robust image hashing seeks to transform a given input image into a shorter hashed version using a key-dependent non-invertible transform. These image hashes can be used for watermarking, image integrity authentication or image indexing for fast retrieval. This paper introduces a new method of generating image hashes based on extracting Higher Order Spectral features from the Radon projection of an input image. The feature extraction process is non-invertible, non-linear and different hashes can be produced from the same image through the use of random permutations of the input. We show that the transform is robust to typical image transformations such as JPEG compression, noise, scaling, rotation, smoothing and cropping. We evaluate our system using a verification-style framework based on calculating false match, false non-match likelihoods using the publicly available Uncompressed Colour Image database (UCID) of 1320 images. We also compare our results to Swaminathan’s Fourier-Mellin based hashing method with at least 1% EER improvement under noise, scaling and sharpening.

Flexural behaviour and design of the new built-up LiteSteel beams

LiteSteel Beam (LSB) is a new cold-formed steel beam produced by OneSteel Australian Tube Mills. The new beam is effectively a channel section with two rectangular hollow flanges and a slender web, and is manufactured using a combined cold-forming and electric resistance welding process. OneSteel Australian Tube Mills is promoting the use of LSBs as flexural members in a range of applications, such as floor bearers. When LSBs are used as back to back built-up sections, they are likely to improve their moment capacity and thus extend their applications further. However, the structural behaviour of built-up beams is not well understood. Many steel design codes include guidelines for connecting two channels to form a built-up I-section including the required longitudinal spacing of connections. But these rules were found to be inadequate in some applications. Currently the safe spans of builtup beams are determined based on twice the moment capacity of a single section. Research has shown that these guidelines are conservative. Therefore large scale lateral buckling tests and advanced numerical analyses were undertaken to investigate the flexural behaviour of back to back LSBs connected by fasteners (bolts) at various longitudinal spacings under uniform moment conditions. In this research an experimental investigation was first undertaken to study the flexural behaviour of back to back LSBs including its buckling characteristics. This experimental study included tensile coupon tests, initial geometric imperfection measurements and lateral buckling tests. The initial geometric imperfection measurements taken on several back to back LSB specimens showed that the back to back bolting process is not likely to alter the imperfections, and the measured imperfections are well below the fabrication tolerance limits. Twelve large scale lateral buckling tests were conducted to investigate the behaviour of back to back built-up LSBs with various longitudinal fastener spacings under uniform moment conditions. Tests also included two single LSB specimens. Test results showed that the back to back LSBs gave higher moment capacities in comparison with single LSBs, and the fastener spacing influenced the ultimate moment capacities. As the fastener spacing was reduced the ultimate moment capacities of back to back LSBs increased. Finite element models of back to back LSBs with varying fastener spacings were then developed to conduct a detailed parametric study on the flexural behaviour of back to back built-up LSBs. Two finite element models were developed, namely experimental and ideal finite element models. The models included the complex contact behaviour between LSB web elements and intermittently fastened bolted connections along the web elements. They were validated by comparing their results with experimental results and numerical results obtained from an established buckling analysis program called THIN-WALL. These comparisons showed that the developed models could accurately predict both the elastic lateral distortional buckling moments and the non-linear ultimate moment capacities of back to back LSBs. Therefore the ideal finite element models incorporating ideal simply supported boundary conditions and uniform moment conditions were used in a detailed parametric study on the flexural behaviour of back to back LSB members. In the detailed parametric study, both elastic buckling and nonlinear analyses of back to back LSBs were conducted for 13 LSB sections with varying spans and fastener spacings. Finite element analysis results confirmed that the current design rules in AS/NZS 4600 (SA, 2005) are very conservative while the new design rules developed by Anapayan and Mahendran (2009a) for single LSB members were also found to be conservative. Thus new member capacity design rules were developed for back to back LSB members as a function of non-dimensional member slenderness. New empirical equations were also developed to aid in the calculation of elastic lateral distortional buckling moments of intermittently fastened back to back LSBs. Design guidelines were developed for the maximum fastener spacing of back to back LSBs in order to optimise the use of fasteners. A closer fastener spacing of span/6 was recommended for intermediate spans and some long spans where the influence of fastener spacing was found to be high. In the last phase of this research, a detailed investigation was conducted to investigate the potential use of different types of connections and stiffeners in improving the flexural strength of back to back LSB members. It was found that using transverse web stiffeners was the most cost-effective and simple strengthening method. It is recommended that web stiffeners are used at the supports and every third points within the span, and their thickness is in the range of 3 to 5 mm depending on the size of LSB section. The use of web stiffeners eliminated most of the lateral distortional buckling effects and hence improved the ultimate moment capacities. A suitable design equation was developed to calculate the elastic lateral buckling moments of back to back LSBs with the above recommended web stiffener configuration while the same design rules developed for unstiffened back to back LSBs were recommended to calculate the ultimate moment capacities.

The old face of 'new' social networks : the republic of letters as a virtual community

This paper explores the idea of virtual participation through the historical example of the republic of letters in early modern Europe (circa 1500-1800). By reflecting on the construction of virtuality in a historical context, and more specifically in a pre-digital environment, this paper calls attention to accusations of technological determinism in ongoing research concerning the affordances of the Internet and related media of communication. It argues that ‘the virtual’ is not synonymous with ‘the digital’ and suggests that, in order to articulate what is novel about modern technologies, we must first understand the social interactions underpinning the relationships which are facilitated through those technologies. By analysing the construction of virtuality in a pre-digital environment, this paper thus offers a baseline from which scholars might consider what is different about the modes of interaction and communication being engaged in via modern media.

Gas boosted solar water heaters : Queensland case studies of installation practices in new homes

Because of the greenhouse gas emissions implications of the market dominating electric hot water systems, governments in Australia have implemented policies and programs to encourage the uptake of solar water heaters (SWHs) in the residential market as part of climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies. The cost-benefit analysis that usually accompanies all government policy and program design could be simplistically reduced to the ratio of expected greenhouse gas reductions of SWH to the cost of a SWH. The national Register of Solar Water Heaters specifies how many renewable energy certificates (RECs) are allocated to complying SWHs according to their expected performance, and hence greenhouse gas reductions, in different climates. Neither REC allocations nor rebates are tied to actual performance of systems. This paper examines the performance of instantaneous gas-boosted solar water heaters installed in new residences in a housing estate in south-east Queensland in the period 2007 – 2010. The evidence indicates systemic failures in installation practices, resulting in zero solar performance or dramatic underperformance (estimated average 43% solar contribution). The paper will detail the faults identified, and how these faults were eventually diagnosed and corrected. The impacts of these system failures on end-use consumers are discussed before concluding with a brief overview of areas where further research is required in order to more fully understand whole of supply chain implications.

Panel studies of new venture creation : a review and suggestions for future research

We review all journal articles based on “PSED-type” research, i.e., longitudinal, empirical studies of large probability samples of on-going, business start-up efforts. We conclude that the research stream has yielded interesting findings; sometimes by confirming prior research with a less bias-prone methodology and at other times by challenging whether prior conclusions are valid for the early stages of venture development. Most importantly, the research has addressed new, process-related research questions that prior research has shunned or been unable to study in a rigorous manner. The research has revealed an enormous and fascinating variability in new venture creation that also makes it challenging to arrive at broadly valid generalizations. An analysis of the findings across studies as well as an examination of those studies that have been relatively more successful at explaining outcomes give good guidance regarding what is required in order to achieve strong and credible results. We compile and present such advice to users of existing data sets and designers of new projects in the following areas: Statistically representative and/or theoretically relevant sampling; Level of analysis issues; Dealing with process heterogeneity; Dealing with other heterogeneity issues, and Choice and interpretation of dependent variables.

Analysis of cardiac and epileptic signals using higher order spectra

The theory of nonlinear dyamic systems provides some new methods to handle complex systems. Chaos theory offers new concepts, algorithms and methods for processing, enhancing and analyzing the measured signals. In recent years, researchers are applying the concepts from this theory to bio-signal analysis. In this work, the complex dynamics of the bio-signals such as electrocardiogram (ECG) and electroencephalogram (EEG) are analyzed using the tools of nonlinear systems theory. In the modern industrialized countries every year several hundred thousands of people die due to sudden cardiac death. The Electrocardiogram (ECG) is an important biosignal representing the sum total of millions of cardiac cell depolarization potentials. It contains important insight into the state of health and nature of the disease afflicting the heart. Heart rate variability (HRV) refers to the regulation of the sinoatrial node, the natural pacemaker of the heart by the sympathetic and parasympathetic branches of the autonomic nervous system. Heart rate variability analysis is an important tool to observe the heart's ability to respond to normal regulatory impulses that affect its rhythm. A computerbased intelligent system for analysis of cardiac states is very useful in diagnostics and disease management. Like many bio-signals, HRV signals are non-linear in nature. Higher order spectral analysis (HOS) is known to be a good tool for the analysis of non-linear systems and provides good noise immunity. In this work, we studied the HOS of the HRV signals of normal heartbeat and four classes of arrhythmia. This thesis presents some general characteristics for each of these classes of HRV signals in the bispectrum and bicoherence plots. Several features were extracted from the HOS and subjected an Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) test. The results are very promising for cardiac arrhythmia classification with a number of features yielding a p-value < 0.02 in the ANOVA test. An automated intelligent system for the identification of cardiac health is very useful in healthcare technology. In this work, seven features were extracted from the heart rate signals using HOS and fed to a support vector machine (SVM) for classification. The performance evaluation protocol in this thesis uses 330 subjects consisting of five different kinds of cardiac disease conditions. The classifier achieved a sensitivity of 90% and a specificity of 89%. This system is ready to run on larger data sets. In EEG analysis, the search for hidden information for identification of seizures has a long history. Epilepsy is a pathological condition characterized by spontaneous and unforeseeable occurrence of seizures, during which the perception or behavior of patients is disturbed. An automatic early detection of the seizure onsets would help the patients and observers to take appropriate precautions. Various methods have been proposed to predict the onset of seizures based on EEG recordings. The use of nonlinear features motivated by the higher order spectra (HOS) has been reported to be a promising approach to differentiate between normal, background (pre-ictal) and epileptic EEG signals. In this work, these features are used to train both a Gaussian mixture model (GMM) classifier and a Support Vector Machine (SVM) classifier. Results show that the classifiers were able to achieve 93.11% and 92.67% classification accuracy, respectively, with selected HOS based features. About 2 hours of EEG recordings from 10 patients were used in this study. This thesis introduces unique bispectrum and bicoherence plots for various cardiac conditions and for normal, background and epileptic EEG signals. These plots reveal distinct patterns. The patterns are useful for visual interpretation by those without a deep understanding of spectral analysis such as medical practitioners. It includes original contributions in extracting features from HRV and EEG signals using HOS and entropy, in analyzing the statistical properties of such features on real data and in automated classification using these features with GMM and SVM classifiers.

New stress and velocity fields for highly frictional granular materials

The idealised theory for the quasi-static flow of granular materials which satisfy the Coulomb-Mohr hypothesis is considered. This theory arises in the limit that the angle of internal friction approaches $\pi/2$, and accordingly these materials may be referred to as being `highly frictional'. In this limit, the stress field for both two-dimensional and axially symmetric flows may be formulated in terms of a single nonlinear second order partial differential equation for the stress angle. To obtain an accompanying velocity field, a flow rule must be employed. Assuming the non-dilatant double-shearing flow rule, a further partial differential equation may be derived in each case, this time for the streamfunction. Using Lie symmetry methods, a complete set of group-invariant solutions is derived for both systems, and through this process new exact solutions are constructed. Only a limited number of exact solutions for gravity driven granular flows are known, so these results are potentially important in many practical applications. The problem of mass flow through a two-dimensional wedge hopper is examined as an illustration.

The airport city : a new business model for airport development

The airport city concept has been embraced by many airports of different scales and in varied ways around the world. Airports everywhere have diversified their landside revenues with non-aviation commercial and industrial development in order to increase revenues and spread risk in the notoriously volatile aviation market. As intermodal hubs in a connected, globalised world, airports have evolved from transportation nodes into multi-faceted business enterprises. They have assumed a critical role as ‘transactional’ spaces in the global economy (Gottdiener 2001).

Development of new evaluation methods for qualitative alternatives, using fuzzy calculations

Evaluation, selection and finally decision making are all among important issues, which engineers face in long run of projects. Engineers implement mathematical and nonmathematical methods to make accurate and correct decisions, whenever needed. As extensive as these methods are, effects of any selected method on outputs achieved and decisions made are still suspicious. This is more controversial and challengeable, where evaluation is made among non-quantitative alternatives. In civil engineering and construction management problems, criteria include both quantitative and qualitative ones, such as aesthetic, construction duration, building and operation costs, and environmental considerations. As the result, decision making frequently takes place among non-quantitative alternatives. It should be noted that traditional comparison methods, including clear-cut and inflexible mathematics, have always been criticized. This paper demonstrates a brief review of traditional methods of evaluating alternatives. It also offers a new decision making method using, fuzzy calculations. The main focus of this research is some engineering issues, which have flexible nature and vague borders. Suggested method provides analyzability of evaluation for decision makers. It is also capable to overcome multi criteria and multi-referees problems. In order to ease calculations, a program named DeMA is introduced.

Application of higher order spectra to identify epileptic EEG

Epilepsy is characterized by the spontaneous and seemingly unforeseeable occurrence of seizures, during which the perception or behavior of patients is disturbed. An automatic system that detects seizure onsets would allow patients or the people near them to take appropriate precautions, and could provide more insight into this phenomenon. Various methods have been proposed to predict the onset of seizures based on EEG recordings. The use of nonlinear features motivated by the higher order spectra (HOS) has been reported to be a promising approach to differentiate between normal, background (pre-ictal) and epileptic EEG signals. In this work, we made a comparative study of the performance of Gaussian mixture model (GMM) and Support Vector Machine (SVM) classifiers using the features derived from HOS and from the power spectrum. Results show that the selected HOS based features achieve 93.11% classification accuracy compared to 88.78% with features derived from the power spectrum for a GMM classifier. The SVM classifier achieves an improvement from 86.89% with features based on the power spectrum to 92.56% with features based on the bispectrum.

Pattern recognition using invariants defined from higher order spectra : 2-D image inputs

A new algorithm for extracting features from images for object recognition is described. The algorithm uses higher order spectra to provide desirable invariance properties, to provide noise immunity, and to incorporate nonlinearity into the feature extraction procedure thereby allowing the use of simple classifiers. An image can be reduced to a set of 1D functions via the Radon transform, or alternatively, the Fourier transform of each 1D projection can be obtained from a radial slice of the 2D Fourier transform of the image according to the Fourier slice theorem. A triple product of Fourier coefficients, referred to as the deterministic bispectrum, is computed for each 1D function and is integrated along radial lines in bifrequency space. Phases of the integrated bispectra are shown to be translation- and scale-invariant. Rotation invariance is achieved by a regrouping of these invariants at a constant radius followed by a second stage of invariant extraction. Rotation invariance is thus converted to translation invariance in the second step. Results using synthetic and actual images show that isolated, compact clusters are formed in feature space. These clusters are linearly separable, indicating that the nonlinearity required in the mapping from the input space to the classification space is incorporated well into the feature extraction stage. The use of higher order spectra results in good noise immunity, as verified with synthetic and real images. Classification of images using the higher order spectra-based algorithm compares favorably to classification using the method of moment invariants