65 resultados para Holt-Winters


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Objective: To examine the effects of personal and community characteristics, specifically race and rurality, on lengths of state psychiatric hospital and community stays using maximum likelihood survival analysis with a special emphasis on change over a ten year period of time. Data Sources: We used the administrative data of the Virginia Department of Mental Health, Mental Retardation, and Substance Abuse Services (DMHMRSAS) from 1982-1991 and the Area Resources File (ARF). Given these two sources, we constructed a history file for each individual who entered the state psychiatric system over the ten year period. Histories included demographic, treatment, and community characteristics. Study Design: We used a longitudinal, population-based design with maximum likelihood estimation of survival models. We presented a random effects model with unobserved heterogeneity that was independent of observed covariates. The key dependent variables were lengths of inpatient stay and subsequent length of community stay. Explanatory variables measured personal, diagnostic, and community characteristics, as well as controls for calendar time. Data Collection: This study used secondary, administrative, and health planning data. Principal Findings: African-American clients leave the community more quickly than whites. After controlling for other characteristics, however, race does not affect hospital length of stay. Rurality does not affect length of community stays once other personal and community characteristics are controlled for. However, people from rural areas have longer hospital stays even after controlling for personal and community characteristics. The effects of time are significantly smaller than expected. Diagnostic composition effects and a decrease in the rate of first inpatient admissions explain part of this reduced impact of time. We also find strong evidence for the existence of unobserved heterogeneity in both types of stays and adjust for this in our final models. Conclusions: Our results show that information on client characteristics available from inpatient stay records is useful in predicting not only the length of inpatient stay but also the length of the subsequent community stay. This information can be used to target increased discharge planning for those at risk of more rapid readmission to inpatient care. Correlation across observed and unobserved factors affecting length of stay has significant effects on the measurement of relationships between individual factors and lengths of stay. Thus, it is important to control for both observed and unobserved factors in estimation.

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An approach is proposed and applied to five industries to prove how phenomenology can be valuable in rethinking consumer markets (Popp & Holt, 2013). The purpose of this essay is to highlight the potential implications that 'phenomenological thinking' brings for competitiveness and innovation (Sanders, 1982), hence helping managers being more innovative in their strategic marketing decisions (i.e. market creation, positioning, branding). Phenomenology is in fact a way of thinking − besides and before being a qualitative research procedure − a very practical exercise that strategic managers can master and apply in the same successful way as other scientists have already done in their fields of study (e.g. sociology, psychology, psychiatry, and anthropology). Two fundamental considerations justify this research: a lack of distinctiveness among firms due to high levels of competition and consumers no longer knowing what they want (i.e. no more needs). The authors will show how the classical mental framework generally used to study markets by practitioners appears on the one hand to be established and systematic in the life of a company, while on the other is no longer adequate to meet the needs of innovation required to survive. To the classic principles of objectivity, generality, and psycho-sociology the authors counterpose the imaginary, eidetic-phenomenological reduction, and an existential perspective. From a theoretical point of view, this paper introduces a set of functioning rules applicable to achieve innovation in any market and useful to identify cultural practices inherent in the act of consumption.

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Introduction This investigation aimed to assess the consistency and accuracy of radiation therapists (RTs) performing cone beam computed tomography (CBCT) alignment to fiducial markers (FMs) (CBCTFM) and the soft tissue prostate (CBCTST). Methods Six patients receiving prostate radiation therapy underwent daily CBCTs. Manual alignment of CBCTFM and CBCTST was performed by three RTs. Inter-observer agreement was assessed using a modified Bland–Altman analysis for each alignment method. Clinically acceptable 95% limits of agreement with the mean (LoAmean) were defined as ±2.0 mm for CBCTFM and ±3.0 mm for CBCTST. Differences between CBCTST alignment and the observer-averaged CBCTFM (AvCBCTFM) alignment were analysed. Clinically acceptable 95% LoA were defined as ±3.0 mm for the comparison of CBCTST and AvCBCTFM. Results CBCTFM and CBCTST alignments were performed for 185 images. The CBCTFM 95% LoAmean were within ±2.0 mm in all planes. CBCTST 95% LoAmean were within ±3.0 mm in all planes. Comparison of CBCTST with AvCBCTFM resulted in 95% LoA of −4.9 to 2.6, −1.6 to 2.5 and −4.7 to 1.9 mm in the superior–inferior, left–right and anterior–posterior planes, respectively. Conclusions Significant differences were found between soft tissue alignment and the predicted FM position. FMs are useful in reducing inter-observer variability compared with soft tissue alignment. Consideration needs to be given to margin design when using soft tissue matching due to increased inter-observer variability. This study highlights some of the complexities of soft tissue guidance for prostate radiation therapy.

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There is a new type of home education parent challenging long-held assumptions about homeschooling (cf. Morton 2012). These parents are well educated (cf. Beck 2010) but have chosen to eschew the social and cultural capital (Bourdieu & Wacquant 1992) of school in favour of some- thing completely different. They are unschoolers, which involves ‘allow- ing children as much freedom to learn in the world as their parents can possibly bear’ (cf. Holt & Farenga 2003: 238). This chapter presents the approach taken by one researcher to explore the reasons families choose unschooling. These families can be difficult to access, because they often fail to register with home education units and thus remain outside the education system (cf. Townsend 2012). Their lack of registration makes them largely invisible, affecting their ability to make an important contribution to debates around education. In spite of this invisibility, many unschoolers are keen to talk to researchers to increase wider understanding of unschooling.

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Introduction: Interventions that prevent healthcare-associated infections should lead to fewer deaths and shorter hospital stays. Cleaning hands with soap and water or alcohol rub is an effectiveway to prevent the transmission of organisms, but compliance is sometimes low. The National Hand Hygiene Initiative in Australia aimed to improve hand hygiene compliance among healthcare workers, with the goal of reducing rates of healthcare-associated infections. Methods: We examined if the introduction of the National Hand Hygiene Initiative was associated with a change in infection rates. Monthly infection rates for six types of healthcare-associated infections were examined in 38 Australian hospitals across six states. Infection categories were: bloodstream infections, centralline associated bloodstream infections, methicillin-resistant and methicillin-sensitive Staphylococcus aureus, Staphylococcus aureus bacteraemia and surgical site infections. Results: The National Hand Hygiene Initiative was associated with a statistically significant reduction in infection rates in 11 out of 23 state and infection combinations studied. There was no change in infection rates for nine combinations, and there was an increase in three infection rates in South Australia. Conclusions: The intervention was associated with reduced infection rates in many cases. The lack of improvement in nine cases may have been because they already had effective initiatives before the national initiative’s introduction.

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We describe an investigation into how Massey University’s Pollen Classifynder can accelerate the understanding of pollen and its role in nature. The Classifynder is an imaging microscopy system that can locate, image and classify slide based pollen samples. Given the laboriousness of purely manual image acquisition and identification it is vital to exploit assistive technologies like the Classifynder to enable acquisition and analysis of pollen samples. It is also vital that we understand the strengths and limitations of automated systems so that they can be used (and improved) to compliment the strengths and weaknesses of human analysts to the greatest extent possible. This article reviews some of our experiences with the Classifynder system and our exploration of alternative classifier models to enhance both accuracy and interpretability. Our experiments in the pollen analysis problem domain have been based on samples from the Australian National University’s pollen reference collection (2,890 grains, 15 species) and images bundled with the Classifynder system (400 grains, 4 species). These samples have been represented using the Classifynder image feature set.We additionally work through a real world case study where we assess the ability of the system to determine the pollen make-up of samples of New Zealand honey. In addition to the Classifynder’s native neural network classifier, we have evaluated linear discriminant, support vector machine, decision tree and random forest classifiers on these data with encouraging results. Our hope is that our findings will help enhance the performance of future releases of the Classifynder and other systems for accelerating the acquisition and analysis of pollen samples.

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Over its history, the International Journal of Inclusive Education has had a strong record of naming, critiquing and redressing the ways in which particular social locations shape experiences of inclusion and exclusion in education. In this special issue, we continue this tradition taking as our focus those who live outside the metropolitan mainstream. To date, rural schools and the communities of which they are part have often been overlooked by researchers of inclusive education. This is not to suggest that the rural has been ignored entirely in research on inclusivity and schooling. For example, a number of studies have included rural case studies as part of broader research on subjects such as educational disadvantage and experiences of poverty (Horgan 2009), inclusivity and early childhood services (Penn 1997), constraints to inclusive educational practice (Shevlin, Winter, and Flynn 2013) and the efficacy of inclusivity training programmes for teachers (Strieker, Logan, and Kuhel 2012). Such work provides a critical reference point for this special issue as it has demon- strated that the educational landscape may be very differently experienced in the rural compared to the urban. Illustrative is Wikeley et al.’s (2009, 381) assertion that working class Irish youth living outside the urban sphere are ‘doubly disadvantaged’ in terms of accessing out-of-school activities and Milovanovic et al.’s (2014, 47) claim that for young children in the Western Balkans, there is a ‘dearth of pre-school provision in rural areas’. As well as highlighting cleavages of disadvantage as they exist between urban and rural schools, work in this journal has also revealed disadvantage that exists within rural schools. This scholarship has explored how particular social locations, such as disability, ethnicity, sexuality, gender and class intersect with rurality to produce very different educational biographies. For example, it may be class, as Holt (2012) found in her study of young rural women’s transition to a city university, or it may be gender, as Tuwor and Sossou (2008) posited in their work on the schooling of girls in West Africa.

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Globally, Indigenous populations, which include Aboriginal and Torres Strait islanders in Australia and Māori people in New Zealand (NZ), have poorer health than their non-Indigenous counterparts. Indigenous peoples worldwide face substantial challenges in poverty, education, employment, housing and disconnection from ancestral lands. While addressing social determinants of health is a priority, solving clinical issues is equally important. Indeed, ignoring the latter until social issues improve risks further disparity as this may take generations. A systematic overview of interventions addressing social determinants of health found a striking lack of reliable evaluations.Where evidence was available, health improvement associated with interventions was modest or uncertain. 10 Thus advances in healthcare remain essential and these require the best evidence available in 11 preventing and managing common illnesses, including respiratory illnesses.

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Genomes of 82 Acinetobacter baumannii global clones 1 (GC1) and 2 (GC2) isolates were sequenced and different forms of the locus predicted to direct synthesis of the outer core (OC) of the lipooligosaccharide were identified. OCL1 was in all GC2 genomes, whereas GC1 isolates carried OCL1, OCL3 or a new locus, OCL5. Three mutants in which an insertion sequence (ISAba1 or ISAba23) interrupted OCL1 were identified. Isolates with OCL1 intact produced only lipooligosaccharide, while the mutants produced lipooligosaccharide of reduced molecular weight. Thus, the assignment of the OC locus as that responsible for the synthesis of the OC is correct.

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OBJECTIVES: To locate the acquired bla(OXA-23) carbapenem resistance gene in an Australian A. baumannii global clone 1 (GC1) isolate. METHODS: The genome of the extensively antibiotic-resistant GC1 isolate A85 harbouring bla(OXA-23) in Tn2006 was sequenced using Illumina HiSeq, and the reads were used to generate a de novo assembly. PCR was used to assemble relevant contigs. Sequences were compared with ones in GenBank. Conjugation experiments were conducted. RESULTS: The sporadic GC1 isolate A85, recovered in 2003, was extensively resistant, exhibiting resistance to imipenem, meropenem and ticarcillin/clavulanate, to cephalosporins and fluoroquinolones and to the older antibiotics gentamicin, kanamycin and neomycin, sulfamethoxazole, trimethoprim and tetracycline. Genes for resistance to older antibiotics are in the chromosome, in an AbaR3 resistance island. A second copy of the ampC gene in Tn6168 confers cephalosporin resistance and the gyrA and parC genes have mutations leading to fluoroquinolone resistance. An 86 335 bp repAci6 plasmid, pA85-3, carrying bla(OXA-23) in Tn2006 in AbaR4, was shown to transfer imipenem, meropenem and ticarcillin/clavulanate resistance into a susceptible recipient. A85 also contains two small cryptic plasmids of 2.7 and 8.7 kb. A85 is sequence type ST126 (Oxford scheme) and carries a novel KL15 capsule locus and the OCL3 outer core locus. CONCLUSIONS: A85 represents a new GC1 lineage identified by the novel capsule locus but retains AbaR3 carrying genes for resistance to older antibiotics. Resistance to imipenem, meropenem and ticarcillin/clavulanate has been introduced into A85 by pA85-3, a repAci6 conjugative plasmid carrying Tn2006 in AbaR4.

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Acinetobacter baumannii isolate A1 was recovered in the United Kingdom in 1982 and belongs to global clone 1 (GC1). Here, we present its complete 3.91-Mbp genome sequence, generated via a combination of short-read sequencing (Illumina), long-read sequencing (PacBio), and manual finishing.

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Globally, Indigenous populations, which include Aboriginal and Torres Strait islanders in Australia and Māori people in New Zealand (NZ), have poorer health than their non-Indigenous counterparts (1). Indigenous peoples worldwide face substantial challenges in poverty, education, employment, housing, and disconnection from ancestral lands (1). While addressing social determinants of health is a priority, solving clinical issues is equally important. Indeed, ignoring the latter until social issues improve risks further disparity as this may take generations. A systematic overview of interventions addressing social determinants of health found a striking lack of reliable evaluations (2). Where evidence was available, health improvement associated with interventions was modest or uncertain (2). Thus, advances in healthcare remain essential and these require the best evidence available in preventing and managing common illnesses, including respiratory illnesses

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Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified 76 variants associated with prostate cancer risk predominantly in populations of European ancestry. To identify additional susceptibility loci for this common cancer, we conducted a meta-analysis of > 10 million SNPs in 43,303 prostate cancer cases and 43,737 controls from studies in populations of European, African, Japanese and Latino ancestry. Twenty-three new susceptibility loci were identified at association P < 5 × 10(-8); 15 variants were identified among men of European ancestry, 7 were identified in multi-ancestry analyses and 1 was associated with early-onset prostate cancer. These 23 variants, in combination with known prostate cancer risk variants, explain 33% of the familial risk for this disease in European-ancestry populations. These findings provide new regions for investigation into the pathogenesis of prostate cancer and demonstrate the usefulness of combining ancestrally diverse populations to discover risk loci for disease.