A critical analysis of crisis escalation models : understanding stages and severity in infrastructure disturbance

A range of authors from the risk management, crisis management, and crisis communications literature have proposed different models as a means of understanding components of crisis. A generic component of these sources has focused on preparedness practices before disturbance events and response practices during events. This paper provides a critical analysis of three key explanatory models of how crises escalate highlighting the strengths and limitations of each approach. The paper introduces an optimised conceptual model utilising components from the previous work under the four phases of pre-event, response, recovery, and post-event. Within these four phases, a ten step process is introduced that can enhance understanding of the progression of distinct stages of disturbance for different types of events. This crisis evolution framework is examined as a means to provide clarity and applicability to a range of infrastructure failure contexts and provide a path for further empirical investigation in this area.

Trans-Bass Strait speciation and trans-Pacific dispersal in the Myoporum thrips (Thysanoptera, Phlaeothripinae)

Molecular and morphological data indicate that the pest thrips damaging Myoporum species in California and Hawai'i, Klambothrips myoporiMound and Morris, originated in Tasmania, Australia. This trans-Pacific dispersal presumably resulted from the international horticultural trade in Myoporum species. The data distinguish the pest from K. adelaideae sp.n. that induces leaf deformation on M. insulare along the coast of mainland Australia that is separated by ∼300km from Tasmania by the Bass Strait. K. myopori is more damaging to its non-native hosts in California and Hawai'i than to M. insulare in Tasmania, and further research is needed to determine if this is the result of release from its natural enemies. However, in certain areas of California, some Myoporum species are invasive weeds, and K. myopori may be considered an example of an accidental but beneficial introduction in this instance because of its detrimental impact on the plant species.

Transcription and expression of Plasmodium falciparum histidine-rich proteins in different stages and strains : implications for rapid diagnostic tests

Background: Although rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) for Plasmodium falciparum infection that target histidine rich protein 2 (PfHRP2) are generally sensitive, their performance has been reported to be variable. One possible explanation for variable test performance is differences in expression level of PfHRP in different parasite isolates. Methods: Total RNA and protein were extracted from synchronised cultures of 7 P. falciparum lines over 5 time points of the life cycle, and from synchronised ring stages of 10 falciparum lines. Using quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction, Western blot analysis and ELISA we investigated variations in the transcription and protein levels of pfhrp2, pfhrp3 and PfHRP respectively in the different parasite lines, over the parasite intraerythrocytic life cycle. Results: Transcription of pfhrp2 and pfhrp3 in different parasite lines over the parasite life cycle was observed to vary relative to the control parasite K1. In some parasite lines very low transcription of these genes was observed. The peak transcription was observed in ring-stage parasites. Pfhrp2 transcription was observed to be consistently higher than pfhrp3 transcription within parasite lines. The intraerythrocytic lifecycle stage at which the peak level of protein was present varied across strains. Total protein levels were more constant relative to total mRNA transcription, however a maximum 24 fold difference in expression at ring-stage parasites relative to the K1 strain was observed. Conclusions: The levels of transcription of pfhrp2 and pfhrp3, and protein expression of PfHRP varied between different P. falciparum strains. This variation may impact on the detection sensitivity of PfHRP2-detecting RDTs.

Early stages of growth of YBa2Cu3O7-δ high Tc superconducting films on (001) Y-ZrO2 substrates

The early stages of growth of high quality YBa2Cu 3O7-δ (YBCO) films grown on (001) Y-ZrO2 (YSZ) substrates by pulsed laser deposition have been studied using a combination of atomic force microscopy and transmission electron microscopy. A one unit cell thick YBCO layer and relatively large CuO particles formed in the initial stages. Additional YBCO grew on top of the first layer in the form of one or a few unit cell high c-axis oriented islands about 30 nm in diameter. The rounded islands subsequently coalesced into faceted domains. Elongated Y 2BaCuO5 particles nucleated after the first layer of YBCO. A highly textured BaZrO3 layer formed between the YSZ and the YBCO with a cube-on-cube dominant orientation relationship with respect to the YBCO film.

Anticipated user experience in the early stages of product development

This research investigates users' anticipation of their future experiences with interactive products to support design for experience in the early stages of product development. This research generates new knowledge of anticipated user experience (AUX), which reveals users' tendency to perceive the pragmatic quality of products as the main determinant of their positive future experiences. The AUX Framework has been an important outcome of this study. The exploration of the components of this framework allows a better prediction and understanding of users' underlying needs and potential usage contexts valuable for the early design phases.

FRC erection stages dynamic behaviour under wind loads

Buffeting response of a cable-stayed bridge under construction is investigated through wind tunnel tests and numerical simulations. Two configurations of the erection stage have been considered and compared in terms of dynamic response and internal forces using the results of the experimental aeroelastic models. Moreover the results of a numerical model able to simulate the simultaneous effects of vortex shedding from tower and aeroelastic response of the deck are compared to the wind tunnel ones.

Fatty acid synthesis and pyruvate metabolism pathways remain active in dihydroartemisinin induced dormant ring stages of Plasmodium falciparum

Artemisinin (ART) based combination therapy (ACT) is used as the first line treatment of uncomplicated falciparum malaria worldwide. However, despite high potency and rapid action there is a high rate of recrudescence associated with ART monotherapy or ACT long before the recent emergence of ART resistance. ART induced ring stage dormancy and recovery has been implicated as possible cause of recrudescence; however, little is known about the characteristics of dormant parasites including whether dormant parasites are metabolically active. We investigated the transcription of 12 genes encoding key enzymes in various metabolic pathways in P. falciparum during dihydroartemisinin (DHA) induced dormancy and recovery. Transcription analysis showed an immediate down regulation for 10 genes following exposure to DHA, but continued transcription of 2 genes encoding apicoplast and mitochondrial proteins. Transcription of several additional genes encoding apicoplast and mitochondrial proteins, particularly genes encoding enzymes in pyruvate metabolism and fatty acid synthesis pathways, were also maintained. Additions of inhibitors for biotin acetyl CoA carbozylase and enoyl-acyl carrier reductase of the fatty acid synthesis pathways delayed the recovery of dormant parasites by 6 and 4 days, respectively following DHA treatment. Our results demonstrate most metabolic pathways are down regulated in DHA induced dormant parasites. In contrast fatty acid and pyruvate metabolic pathways remain active. These findings highlight new targets to interrupt recovery of parasites from ART-induced dormancy and to reduce the rate of recrudescence following ART treatment.

Surface fluxes of Si and C adatoms at initial growth stages of SiC quantum dots

Self-assembly of highly stoichiometric SiC quantum dots still remains a major challenge for the gas/plasma-based nanodot synthesis. By means of a multiscale hybrid numerical simulation of the initial stage (0.1-2.5 s into the process) of deposition of SiCSi (100) quantum dot nuclei, it is shown that equal Si and kst atom deposition fluxes result in strong nonstoichiometric nanodot composition due to very different surface fluxes of Si and C adatoms to the quantum dots. At this stage, the surface fluxes of Si and C adatoms to SiC nanodots can be effectively controlled by manipulating the SiC atom influx ratio and the Si (100) surface temperature. It is demonstrated that at a surface temperature of 800 K the surface fluxes can be equalized after only 0.05 s into the process; however, it takes more then 1 s at a surface temperature of 600 K. Based on the results of this study, effective strategies to maintain a stoichiometric ([Si] [C] =1:1) elemental ratio during the initial stages of deposition of SiCSi (100) quantum dot nuclei in a neutral/ionized gas-based process are proposed.

Comparison of intraspecific genetic structure among related chironomids (Diptera) from New Zealand and Patagonia : disparity between potential and realized dispersal

Population genetic studies of freshwater invertebrate taxa in New Zealand and South America are currently few despite the geologically and climatically dynamic histories of these regions. The focus of our study was a comparison of the influence on realized dispersal of 2 closely related nonbiting midges (Chironomidae) of population fragmentation on these separated austral land masses. We used a 734-base pair (bp) fragment of cytochrome c oxidase subunit I (COI) to investigate intraspecific genetic structure in Naonella forsythi Boothroyd in New Zealand and Ferringtonia patagonica Edwards in Patagonia. We proposed hypotheses about their potential dispersal and, hence, expected patterns of genetic structure in these 2 species based on published patterns for the closely related Australian taxon Echinocladius martini Cranston. Genetic structure revealed for both N. forsythi and F. patagonica was characterized by several highly divergent (2.0–10.5%) lineages of late Miocene–Pliocene age within each taxon that were not geographically localized. Many were distributed widely. This pattern differed greatly from population structure in E. martini, which was typified by much greater endemicity of divergent genetic lineages. Nevertheless, diversification of lineages in all 3 taxa appeared to be temporally congruent with the onset of late Miocene glaciations in the southern hemisphere that may have driven fragmentation of suitable habitat, promoting isolation of populations and divergence in allopatry. We argue that differences in realized dispersal post-isolation may be the result of differing availability of suitable habitat in interglacial periods.

A continent-wide study reveals clear relationships between regional abiotic conditions and post-dispersal seed predation

Aim Large-scale patterns linking energy availability, biological productivity and diversity form a central focus of ecology. Despite evidence that the activity and abundance of animals may be limited by climatic variables associated with regional biological productivity (e.g. mean annual precipitation and annual actual evapotranspiration), it is unclear whether plant–granivore interactions are themselves influenced by these climatic factors across broad spatial extents. We evaluated whether climatic conditions that are known to alter the abundance and activity of granivorous animals also affect rates of seed removal. Location Eleven sites across temperate North America. Methods We used a common protocol to assess the removal of the same seed species (Avena sativa) over a 2-day period. Model selection via the Akaike information criterion was used to determine a set of candidate binomial generalized linear mixed models that evaluated the relationship between local climatic data and post-dispersal seed predation. Results Annual actual evapotranspiration was the single best predictor of the proportion of seeds removed. Annual actual evapotranspiration and mean annual precipitation were both positively related to mean seed removal and were included in four and three of the top five models, respectively. Annual temperature range was also positively related to seed removal and was an explanatory variable in three of the top four models. Main conclusions Our work provides the first evidence that energy and precipitation, which are known to affect consumer abundance and activity, also translate to strong, predictable patterns of seed predation across a continent. More generally, these findings suggest that future changes in temperature and precipitation could have widespread consequences for plant species composition in grasslands, through impacts on plant recruitment.

Temporal and spatial patterns of seed dispersal of Musa acuminata by Cynopterus sphinx

The foraging behavior of greater short-nosed fruit bats (Cynopterus sphinx) on wild banana (Musa acuminata) and subsequent dispersal of seeds were studied in the Tropical Rainforest Conservation Area, Xishuangbanna Tropical Botanical Garden, Yunnan province, by direct observation of marked fruits, mist netting, and seed collection. The mean number (± SE) of individual C. sphinx captured by mist net were 2.2 ± 0.33/day and 1.4 ± 0.32/day in the rainy season (September to October) and dry season (November to December), respectively; the difference was not significant. The number of seed pellets expelled was 9.0 ± 1.12/day and 7.2 ± 1.37/day in the rainy and dry seasons respectively; again the difference was not significant. The removal curves for marked fruit were similar for 10 focal trees. Fruits were consumed heavily within two weeks after ripening and all the marked fruit were removed within one month. The difference in seed dispersal was significant between different feeding roosts indicating that patterns of seed dispersal may not be uniform. We found the seeds of M. acuminata can be dispersed by C. sphinx to a distance of about 200 m, and C. sphinx can be considered as an effective seed disperser of M. acuminata.

Arabic translation, adaptation and modification of the dialysis symptom index for chronic kidney disease stages four and five

Background Symptom burden in chronic kidney disease (CKD) is poorly understood. To date, the majority of research focuses on single symptoms and there is a lack of suitable multidimensional symptom measures. The purpose of this study was to modify, translate, cross-culturally adapt and psychometrically analyse the Dialysis Symptom Index (DSI). Methods The study methods involved four phases: modification, translation, pilot-testing with a bilingual non-CKD sample and then psychometric testing with the target population. Content validity was assessed using an expert panel. Inter-rater agreement, test-retest reliability and Cronbach’s alpha coefficient were calculated to demonstrate reliability of the modified DSI. Discriminative and convergent validity were assessed to demonstrate construct validity. Results Content validity index during translation was 0.98. In the pilot study with 25 bilingual students a moderate to perfect agreement (Kappa statistic = 0.60-1.00) was found between English and Arabic versions of the modified DSI. The main study recruited 433 patients CKD with stages 4 and 5. The modified DSI was able to discriminate between non-dialysis and dialysis groups (p < 0.001) and demonstrated convergent validity with domains of the Kidney Disease Quality of Life short form. Excellent test-retest and internal consistency (Cronbach’s α = 0.91) reliability were also demonstrated. Conclusion The Arabic version of the modified DSI demonstrated good psychometric properties, measures the multidimensional nature of symptoms and can be used to assess symptom burden at different stages of CKD. The modified instrument, renamed the CKD Symptom Burden Index (CKD-SBI), should encourage greater clinical and research attention to symptom burden in CKD.

Multiple stages classification of Alzheimer’s disease based on structural brain networks using generalized low rank approximations (GLRAM)

To classify each stage for a progressing disease such as Alzheimer’s disease is a key issue for the disease prevention and treatment. In this study, we derived structural brain networks from diffusion-weighted MRI using whole-brain tractography since there is growing interest in relating connectivity measures to clinical, cognitive, and genetic data. Relatively little work has usedmachine learning to make inferences about variations in brain networks in the progression of the Alzheimer’s disease. Here we developed a framework to utilize generalized low rank approximations of matrices (GLRAM) and modified linear discrimination analysis for unsupervised feature learning and classification of connectivity matrices. We apply the methods to brain networks derived from DWI scans of 41 people with Alzheimer’s disease, 73 people with EMCI, 38 people with LMCI, 47 elderly healthy controls and 221 young healthy controls. Our results show that this new framework can significantly improve classification accuracy when combining multiple datasets; this suggests the value of using data beyond the classification task at hand to model variations in brain connectivity.