Predicting stock market returns and volatility with investor sentiment : evidence from eight developed countries

We test the predictive ability of investor sentiment on the return and volatility at the aggregate market level in the U.S., four largest European countries and three Asia-Pacific countries. We find that in the U.S., France and Italy periods of high consumer confidence levels are followed by low market returns. In Japan both the level and the change in consumer confidence boost the market return in the next month. Further, shifts in sentiment significantly move conditional volatility in most of the countries, and in Italy such impacts lead to an increase in returns by 4.7% in the next month.

The transformation of bureaucracy? Structural change in the Commonwealth public service 1983-93

Commentators have predicted bureaucratic organisations would undergo substantial change as a result of social and economic pressures. We ask whether reforms to the Australian public service over the 1983–93 period exemplify this process. We use the methods of organisational analysis to characterise the direction of change, basing our assessment on the standard structural variables of complexity, formalisation and centralisation, together with a cultural variable. We find evidence that, overall, departments of state in the APS were becoming less bureaucratic in their structure, culture and internal function in the 1983–93 period. However, the effect was not uniform across departments, or unambiguous — formalisation, for example, increased in some respects and decreased in others. Centralisation increased overall, despite devolution of some decision-making.

Minimum cost of transport in human running is not ubiquitous

Purpose This study explores recent claims that humans exhibit a minimum cost of transport (CoTmin) for running which occurs at an intermediate speed, and assesses individual physiological, gait and training characteristics. Methods Twelve healthy participants with varying levels of fitness and running experience ran on a treadmill at six self-selected speeds in a discontinuous protocol over three sessions. Running speed (km[middle dot]hr-1), V[spacing dot above]O2 (mL[middle dot]kg-1[middle dot]km-1), CoT (kcal[middle dot]km-1), heart rate (beats[middle dot]min-1) and cadence (steps[middle dot]min-1) were continuously measured. V[spacing dot above]O2 max was measured on a fourth testing session. The occurrence of a CoTmin was investigated and its presence or absence examined with respect to fitness, gait and training characteristics. Results Five participants showed a clear CoTmin at an intermediate speed and a statistically significant (p < 0.05) quadratic CoT-speed function, while the other participants did not show such evidence. Participants were then categorized and compared with respect to the strength of evidence for a CoTmin (ClearCoTmin and NoCoTmin). The ClearCoTmin group displayed significantly higher correlation between speed and cadence; more endurance training and exercise sessions per week; than the NoCoTmin group; and a marginally non-significant but higher aerobic capacity. Some runners still showed a CoTmin at an intermediate speed even after subtraction of resting energy expenditure. Conclusion The findings confirm the existence of an optimal speed for human running, in some but not all participants. Those exhibiting a COTmin undertook a higher volume of running, ran with a cadence that was more consistently modulated with speed, and tended to be aerobically fitter. The ability to minimise the energetic cost of transport appears not to be ubiquitous feature of human running but may emerge in some individuals with extensive running experience.

The SEA-CALIPSO volcano imaging experiment at Montserrat : plans, campaigns at sea and on land, scientific results, and lessons learned

Since 1995 the eruption of the andesitic Soufrière Hills Volcano (SHV), Montserrat, has been studied in substantial detail. As an important contribution to this effort, the Seismic Experiment with Airgunsource-Caribbean Andesitic Lava Island Precision Seismo-geodetic Observatory (SEA-CALIPSO) experiment was devised to image the arc crust underlying Montserrat, and, if possible, the magma system at SHV using tomography and reflection seismology. Field operations were carried out in October–December 2007, with deployment of 238 seismometers on land supplementing seven volcano observatory stations, and with an array of 10 ocean-bottom seismometers deployed offshore. The RRS James Cook on NERC cruise JC19 towed a tuned airgun array plus a digital 48-channel streamer on encircling and radial tracks for 77 h about Montserrat during December 2007, firing 4414 airgun shots and yielding about 47 Gb of data. The main objecctives of the experiment were achieved. Preliminary analyses of these data published in 2010 generated images of heterogeneous high-velocity bodies representing the cores of volcanoes and subjacent intrusions, and shallow areas of low velocity on the flanks of the island that reflect volcaniclastic deposits and hydrothermal alteration. The resolution of this preliminary work did not extend beyond 5 km depth. An improved three-dimensional (3D) seismic velocity model was then obtained by inversion of 181 665 first-arrival travel times from a more-complete sampling of the dataset, yielding clear images to 7.5 km depth of a low-velocity volume that was interpreted as the magma chamber which feeds the current eruption, with an estimated volume 13 km3. Coupled thermal and seismic modelling revealed properties of the partly crystallized magma. Seismic reflection analyses aimed at imaging structures under southern Montserrat had limited success, and suggest subhorizontal layering interpreted as sills at a depth of between 6 and 19 km. Seismic reflection profiles collected offshore reveal deep fans of volcaniclastic debris and fault offsets, leading to new tectonic interpretations. This chapter presents the project goals and planning concepts, describes in detail the campaigns at sea and on land, summarizes the major results, and identifies the key lessons learned.

Developing an engaging IT degree

Curriculum renewal is a constant activity in Information Technology (IT), Information Systems (IS), Information and Communication Technology (ICT) and Computer Science (CS). Guiding documents from curriculum authorities such as AIS, IEEE and ACM assist in this process, as do those from professional societies, but these are often out of date when the institution seeks to refresh its approaches to learning, and position its graduates for emerging roles and technologies. This paper describes and discusses a curriculum renewal project undertaken in response to changing government requirements,student interests and the adoption of a learner-centric, active learning paradigm utilizing new physical collaborative learning facilities. This paper presents the stimulus for change, describes the use of reference resources and discusses the resulting degree structure, its majors and learning approaches.

Using collaborative and activity-based learning for engaging IT students

Active and collaborative learning are becoming essential strategies to attract, engage and retain students. These methods have been adopted within the Science and Engineering Faculty of Queensland University of Technology for use in its Science, Information Technology and Engineering degrees. This paper describes the adoption and application of these techniques in a specific first year unit in a new Bachelor of Information Technology degree which has majors in Computer Science and Information Systems. The paper reports on the design, development and implementation of this foundation subject and discusses how it uses active and collaborative learning to teach design thinking through a series of design challenges, and how it uses critiquing and reflection to ensure that students become more aware of design and team processes.

Design guidelines for a mobile app for wellbeing of emerging adults

Mental health of young people may be improved through the use of mental health mobile applications,because young people engage with this technology freely. Mental health of young people is improved through the application of positive psychology, studies of which show that regular practice of one’s signature strength increases happiness and wellbeing, while decreasing depression. The issue is how to develop a mobile application intervention so that regular practice of one’s signature strength in novel ways occurs. This research project seeks to develop design guidelines discovered through the application of design thinking, actively working with emerging adults. In addition, this research is framed by the Design Science Research methodology to ensure that the resultant application is relevant and tested rigorously. This paper discusses the theory behind the application and discusses the research methods and research design, and will share the preliminary findings of the discovered design principles.

Using enterprise information architecture methods to model wicked problems in information systems design research

Design Science is the process of solving ‘wicked problems’ through designing, developing, instantiating, and evaluating novel solutions (Hevner, March, Park and Ram, 2004). Wicked problems are described as agent finitude in combination with problem complexity and normative constraint (Farrell and Hooker, 2013). In Information Systems Design Science, determining that problems are ‘wicked’ differentiates Design Science research from Solutions Engineering (Winter, 2008) and is a necessary part of proving the relevance to Information Systems Design Science research (Hevner, 2007; Iivari, 2007). Problem complexity is characterised as many problem components with nested, dependent and co-dependent relationships interacting through multiple feedback and feed-forward loops. Farrell and Hooker (2013) specifically state for wicked problems “it will often be impossible to disentangle the consequences of specific actions from those of other co-occurring interactions”. This paper discusses the application of an Enterprise Information Architecture modelling technique to disentangle the wicked problem complexity for one case. It proposes that such a modelling technique can be applied to other wicked problems and can lay the foundations for proving relevancy to DSR, provide solution pathways for artefact development, and aid to substantiate those elements required to produce Design Theory.

Health education and the control of intestinal worm infections in China : a new vision

Background: The transmission of soil-transmitted helminths (STHs) is associated with poverty, poor hygiene behaviour, lack of clean water and inadequate waste disposal and sanitation. Periodic administration of benzimidazole drugs is the mainstay for global STH control but it does not prevent re-infection, and is unlikely to interrupt transmission as a stand-alone intervention. Findings: We reported recently on the development and successful testing in Hunan province, PR China, of a health education package to prevent STH infections in Han Chinese primary school students. We have recently commenced a new trial of the package in the ethnically diverse Xishuangbanna autonomous prefecture in Yunnan province and the approach is also being tested in West Africa, with further expansion into the Philippines in 2015. Conclusions: The work in China illustrates well the direct impact that health education can have in improving knowledge and awareness, and in changing hygiene behaviour. Further, it can provide insight into the public health outcomes of a multi-component integrated control program, where health education prevents re-infection and periodic drug treatment reduces prevalence and morbidity.

Seasonal factors influencing the failure of buried water reticulation pipes

While the use of environmental factors in the analysis and prediction of failures of buried reticulation pipes in cold environments has been the focus of extensive work, the same cannot be said for failures occurring on pipes in other (non-freezing) environments. A novel analysis of pipe failures in such an environment is the subject of this paper. An exploratory statistical analysis was undertaken, identifying a peak in failure rates during mid to late summer. This peak was found to correspond to a peak in the rate of circumferential failures, whilst the rate of longitudinal failures remained constant. Investigation into the effect of climate on failure rates revealed that the peak in failure rates occurs due to differential soil movement as the result of shrinkage in expansive soils.

Enterprise Business Technology Governance: Three Competencies to Build Board Digital Leadership Capability.

The competent leadership of digital transformation needs to involve the board of directors. The reported lack of such capability in boards is becoming a pressing issue. A part of leadership in such transformation is the board of director’s competence to lead Enterprise Business Technology Governance (EBTG). In this paper we take the position that EBTG competencies are essential in boards, because competent EBTG has been shown to contribute to increased revenue, profit, and returns. We update and expand on the results of a multi-method approach to the development of a set of three board of director competencies needed for effective EBTG.

Profiling the prosumer in the workplace : an exploration of traits, self-efficacy and motivators

This research has built on the growing interest in the prosumer in the workplace – prosumers are those users with high technological skills who both produce and consume their own technology solutions. Prosumers are leaders in their industrial or professional fields and who expect to obtain significant benefit from innovating. The literature reveals that commercially attractive products tend to be developed by prosumers who are at the leading edge of important marketplace trends and therefore this group is increasingly important. This study surveyed prosumers across a variety of occupations and workplaces and explored the motivators and personality traits of the prosumer.

The development and evaluation of a medical imaging training immersive environment

Introduction A novel realistic 3D virtual reality (VR) application has been developed to allow medical imaging students at Queensland University of Technology to practice radiographic techniques independently outside the usual radiography laboratory. Methods A flexible agile development methodology was used to create the software rapidly and effectively. A 3D gaming environment and realistic models were used to engender presence in the software while tutor-determined gold standards enabled students to compare their performance and learn in a problem-based learning pedagogy. Results Students reported high levels of satisfaction and perceived value and the software enabled up to 40 concurrent users to prepare for clinical practice. Student feedback also indicated that they found 3D to be of limited value in the desktop version compared to the usual 2D approach. A randomised comparison between groups receiving software-based and traditional practice measured performance in a formative role play with real equipment. The results of this work indicated superior performance with the equipment for the VR trained students (P = 0.0366) and confirmed the value of VR for enhancing 3D equipment-based problem-solving skills. Conclusions Students practising projection techniques virtually performed better at role play assessments than students practising in a traditional radiography laboratory only. The application particularly helped with 3D equipment configuration, suggesting that teaching 3D problem solving is an ideal use of such medical equipment simulators. Ongoing development work aims to establish the role of VR software in preparing students for clinical practice with a range of medical imaging equipment.

Too cool for homeschool? Accessing underground unschoolers with Web 2.0

There is a new type of home education parent challenging long-held assumptions about homeschooling (cf. Morton 2012). These parents are well educated (cf. Beck 2010) but have chosen to eschew the social and cultural capital (Bourdieu & Wacquant 1992) of school in favour of some- thing completely different. They are unschoolers, which involves ‘allow- ing children as much freedom to learn in the world as their parents can possibly bear’ (cf. Holt & Farenga 2003: 238). This chapter presents the approach taken by one researcher to explore the reasons families choose unschooling. These families can be difficult to access, because they often fail to register with home education units and thus remain outside the education system (cf. Townsend 2012). Their lack of registration makes them largely invisible, affecting their ability to make an important contribution to debates around education. In spite of this invisibility, many unschoolers are keen to talk to researchers to increase wider understanding of unschooling.

Heat strain evaluation of overt and covert body armour in a hot and humid environment

The aim of this study was to elucidate the thermophysiological effects of wearing lightweight non-military overt and covert personal body armour (PBA) in a hot and humid environment. Eight healthy males walked on a treadmill for 120 min at 22% of their heart rate reserve in a climate chamber simulating 31 °C (60%RH) wearing either no armour (control), overt or covert PBA in addition to a security guard uniform, in a randomised controlled crossover design. No significant difference between conditions at the end of each trial was observed in core temperature, heart rate or skin temperature (P > 0.05). Covert PBA produced a significantly greater amount of body mass change (−1.81 ± 0.44%) compared to control (−1.07 ± 0.38%, P = 0.009) and overt conditions (−1.27 ± 0.44%, P = 0.025). Although a greater change in body mass was observed after the covert PBA trial; based on the physiological outcome measures recorded, the heat strain encountered while wearing lightweight, non-military overt or covert PBA was negligible compared to no PBA. Practitioner summary The wearing of bullet proof vests or body armour is a requirement of personnel engaged in a wide range of occupations including police, security, customs and even journalists in theatres of war. This randomised controlled crossover study is the first to examine the thermophysiological effects of wearing lightweight non-military overt and covert personal body armour (PBA) in a hot and humid environment. We conclude that the heat strain encountered while wearing both overt and covert lightweight, non-military PBA was negligible compared to no PBA.