A large change in temperature between neighbouring days increases the risk of mortality

Background: Previous studies have found high temperatures increase the risk of mortality in summer. However, little is known about whether a sharp decrease or increase in temperature between neighbouring days has any effect on mortality. Method: Poisson regression models were used to estimate the association between temperature change and mortality in summer in Brisbane, Australia during 1996–2004 and Los Angeles, United States during 1987–2000. The temperature change was calculated as the current day’s mean temperature minus the previous day’s mean. Results: In Brisbane, a drop of more than 3 °C in temperature between days was associated with relative risks (RRs) of 1.157 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.024, 1.307) for total non external mortality (NEM), 1.186 (95%CI: 1.002, 1.405) for NEM in females, and 1.442 (95%CI: 1.099, 1.892) for people aged 65–74 years. An increase of more than 3 °C was associated with RRs of 1.353 (95%CI: 1.033, 1.772) for cardiovascular mortality and 1.667 (95%CI: 1.146, 2.425) for people aged < 65 years. In Los Angeles, only a drop of more than 3 °C was significantly associated with RRs of 1.133 (95%CI: 1.053, 1.219) for total NEM, 1.252 (95%CI: 1.131, 1.386) for cardiovascular mortality, and 1.254 (95%CI: 1.135, 1.385) for people aged ≥75 years. In both cities, there were joint effects of temperature change and mean temperature on NEM. Conclusion : A significant change in temperature of more than 3 °C, whether positive or negative, has an adverse impact on mortality even after controlling for the current temperature.

The beliefs which motivate young male and female drivers to speed : a comparison of low and high intenders

In Australia, young drivers aged 17 to 24 years, and particularly males, have the highest risk of being involved in a fatal crash. Investigation of young drivers’ beliefs allows for a greater understanding of their involvement in risky behaviours, such as speeding, as beliefs are associated with intentions, the antecedent to behaviour. The theory of planned behaviour (TPB) was used to conceptualise beliefs using a scenario based questionnaire distributed to licensed drivers (N = 398). The questionnaire measured individual’s beliefs and intentions to speed in a particular situation. Consistent with a TPB-based approach, the beliefs of those with low intentions to speed (‘low intenders’) were compared with the beliefs of those with high intentions (‘high intenders’) with such comparisons conducted separately for males and females. Overall, significant differences in the beliefs held by low and high intenders and for both females and males were found. Specifically, for females, it was found that high intenders were significantly more likely to perceive advantages of speeding, less likely to perceive disadvantages, and more likely to be encouraged to speed on familiar and inappropriately signed roads than female low intenders. Females, however, did not differ in their perceptions of support from friends, with all females reporting some level of disapproval from most friends and all females (i.e., low and high intenders) reporting approval to speed from their male friends. The results for males revealed that high intenders were significantly more likely to speed on familiar and inappropriately signed roads as well as having greater perceptions of support from all friends, except from those friends with whom they worked. Low and high intending males did not differ in their perceptions of the advantages and disadvantages of speeding, with the exception of feelings of excitement whereby high intenders reported speeding to be more exciting than low intenders. The findings are discussed in terms of how they may directly inform the content of mass media and public education campaigns aimed at encouraging young drivers to slow down.

Proactive detection of high collision concentration locations on highways

In previous research (Chung et al., 2009), the potential of the continuous risk profile (CRP) to proactively detect the systematic deterioration of freeway safety levels was presented. In this paper, this potential is investigated further, and an algorithm is proposed for proactively detecting sites where the collision rate is not sufficiently high to be classified as a high collision concentration location but where a systematic deterioration of safety level is observed. The approach proposed compares the weighted CRP across different years and uses the cumulative sum (CUSUM) algorithm to detect the sites where changes in collision rate are observed. The CRPs of the detected sites are then compared for reproducibility. When high reproducibility is observed, a growth factor is used for sequential hypothesis testing to determine if the collision profiles are increasing over time. Findings from applying the proposed method using empirical data are documented in the paper together with a detailed description of the method.

Assessing the concordance of health and child protection data for 'maltreated' and 'unintentionally injured' children

Objectives: To quantify the concordance of hospital child maltreatment data with child protection service (CPS) records and identify factors associated with linkage. Methods: Multivariable logistic regression analysis was conducted following retrospective medical record review and database linkage of 884 child records from 20 hospitals and the CPS in Queensland, Australia. Results: Nearly all children with hospital assigned maltreatment codes (93.1%) had a CPS record. Of these, 85.1% had a recent notification. 29% of the linked maltreatment group (n=113) were not known to CPS prior to the hospital presentation. Almost 1/3 of children with unintentional injury hospital codes were known to CPS. Just over 24% of the linked unintentional injury group (n=34) were not known to CPS prior to the hospital presentation but became known during or after discharge from hospital. These estimates are higher than the 2006/07 annual rate of 2.39% of children being notified to CPS. Rural children were more likely to link to CPS, and children were over 3 times more likely to link if the index injury documentation included additional diagnoses or factors affecting their health. Conclusions: The system for referring maltreatment cases to CPS is generally efficient, although up to 1 in 15 children had codes for maltreatment but could not be linked to CPS data. The high proportion of children with unintentional injury codes who linked to CPS suggests clinicians and hospital-based child protection staff should be supported by further education and training to ensure children at risk are being detected by the child protection system.

High-Order Concept Associations Mining and Inferential Language Modeling for Online Review Spam Detection

Despite many incidents about fake online consumer reviews have been reported, very few studies have been conducted to date to examine the trustworthiness of online consumer reviews. One of the reasons is the lack of an effective computational method to separate the untruthful reviews (i.e., spam) from the legitimate ones (i.e., ham) given the fact that prominent spam features are often missing in online reviews. The main contribution of our research work is the development of a novel review spam detection method which is underpinned by an unsupervised inferential language modeling framework. Another contribution of this work is the development of a high-order concept association mining method which provides the essential term association knowledge to bootstrap the performance for untruthful review detection. Our experimental results confirm that the proposed inferential language model equipped with high-order concept association knowledge is effective in untruthful review detection when compared with other baseline methods.

Beam steering with high front-to-back ratio and high directivity on small platforms using decoupled antenna pairs

Beam steering with high front-to-back ratio and high directivity on a small platform is proposed. Two closely spaced antenna pairs with eigenmode port decoupling are used as the basic radiating elements. Two orthogonal radiation patterns are obtained for each antenna pair. High front-to-back ratio and high directivity are achieved by combining the two orthogonal radiation patterns. With an infinite groundplane, a front-to-back ratio of 21 dB with a directivity of 9.8 dB can be achieved. Beam steering, at the expense of a slight decrease in directivity, is achieved by placing the two antenna pairs 0.5λ apart. The simulated half power beamwidth is 58°. A prototype was designed and the 2-D radiation patterns were measured. The prototype supports three directions of beam steering. The half power beamwidth was measured as 46°, 48°, and 50° for the three respective beam directions. The measured front-to-back ratio in azimuth plane is 8.5 dB, 8.0 dB and 7.6 dB, respectively.

High-probability regret bounds for bandit online linear optimization

We present a modification of the algorithm of Dani et al. [8] for the online linear optimization problem in the bandit setting, which with high probability has regret at most O ∗ ( √ T) against an adaptive adversary. This improves on the previous algorithm [8] whose regret is bounded in expectation against an oblivious adversary. We obtain the same dependence on the dimension (n 3/2) as that exhibited by Dani et al. The results of this paper rest firmly on those of [8] and the remarkable technique of Auer et al. [2] for obtaining high probability bounds via optimistic estimates. This paper answers an open question: it eliminates the gap between the high-probability bounds obtained in the full-information vs bandit settings.

High frequency of BRAF mutations in nevi

To evaluate the timing of mutations in BRAF (v-raf murine sarcoma viral oncogene homolog B1) during melanocytic neoplasia, we carried out mutation analysis on microdissected melanoma and nevi samples. We observed mutations resulting in the V599E amino-acid substitution in 41 of 60 (68%) melanoma metastases, 4 of 5 (80%) primary melanomas and, unexpectedly, in 63 of 77 (82%) nevi. These data suggest that mutational activation of the RAS/RAF/MAPK pathway in nevi is a critical step in the initiation of melanocytic neoplasia but alone is insufficient for melanoma tumorigenesis.

Robust designs for Poisson regression models

We consider the problem of how to construct robust designs for Poisson regression models. An analytical expression is derived for robust designs for first-order Poisson regression models where uncertainty exists in the prior parameter estimates. Given certain constraints in the methodology, it may be necessary to extend the robust designs for implementation in practical experiments. With these extensions, our methodology constructs designs which perform similarly, in terms of estimation, to current techniques, and offers the solution in a more timely manner. We further apply this analytic result to cases where uncertainty exists in the linear predictor. The application of this methodology to practical design problems such as screening experiments is explored. Given the minimal prior knowledge that is usually available when conducting such experiments, it is recommended to derive designs robust across a variety of systems. However, incorporating such uncertainty into the design process can be a computationally intense exercise. Hence, our analytic approach is explored as an alternative.

Diels-Alder reactions as an efficient route to high purity cyclic polymers

A simple and efficient route for the synthesis of cyclic polymer systems is presented. Linear furan protected α-maleimide-ω-cyclopentadienyl functionalized precursors (poly(methyl methacrylate) and poly(tert-butyl acrylate)) were synthesized via atom transfer radical polymerization (ATRP) and subsequent substitution of the bromine end-group with cyclopentadiene. Upon heating at high dilution, deprotection of the dieneophile occurs followed by an intramolecular Diels–Alder reaction yielding a high purity cyclic product.

Chain scission resists for extreme ultraviolet lithography based on high performance polysulfone-containing polymers

A series of polymers with a comb architecture were prepared where the poly(olefin sulfone) backbone was designed to be highly sensitive to extreme ultraviolet (EUV) radiation, while the well-defined poly(methyl methacrylate) (PMMA) arms were incorporated with the aim of increasing structural stability. It is hypothesized that upon EUV radiation rapid degradation of the polysulfone backbone will occur leaving behind the well-defined PMMA arms. The synthesized polymers were characterised and have had their performance as chain-scission EUV photoresists evaluated. It was found that all materials possess high sensitivity towards degradation by EUV radiation (E0 in the range 4–6 mJ cm−2). Selective degradation of the poly(1-pentene sulfone) backbone relative to the PMMA arms was demonstrated by mass spectrometry headspace analysis during EUV irradiation and by grazing-angle ATR-FTIR. EUV interference patterning has shown that materials are capable of resolving 30 nm 1:1 line:space features. The incorporation of PMMA was found to increase the structural integrity of the patterned features. Thus, it has been shown that terpolymer materials possessing a highly sensitive poly(olefin sulfone) backbone and PMMA arms are able to provide a tuneable materials platform for chain scission EUV resists. These materials have the potential to benefit applications that require nanopattering, such as computer chip manufacture and nano-MEMS.

Scene invariant crowd counting

This paper describes a scene invariant crowd counting algorithm that uses local features to monitor crowd size. Unlike previous algorithms that require each camera to be trained separately, the proposed method uses camera calibration to scale between viewpoints, allowing a system to be trained and tested on different scenes. A pre-trained system could therefore be used as a turn-key solution for crowd counting across a wide range of environments. The use of local features allows the proposed algorithm to calculate local occupancy statistics, and Gaussian process regression is used to scale to conditions which are unseen in the training data, also providing confidence intervals for the crowd size estimate. A new crowd counting database is introduced to the computer vision community to enable a wider evaluation over multiple scenes, and the proposed algorithm is tested on seven datasets to demonstrate scene invariance and high accuracy. To the authors' knowledge this is the first system of its kind due to its ability to scale between different scenes and viewpoints.

Operational performance of low-cost carriers and international airlines : New evidence using a bootstrap truncated regression

Between 2001 and 2005, the US airline industry faced financial turmoil. At the same time, the European airline industry entered a period of substantive deregulation. This period witnessed opportunities for low-cost carriers to become more competitive in the market as a result of these combined events. To help assess airline performance in the aftermath of these events, this paper provides new evidence of technical efficiency for 42 national and international airlines in 2006 using the data envelopment analysis (DEA) bootstrap approach first proposed by Simar and Wilson (J Econ, 136:31-64, 2007). In the first stage, technical efficiency scores are estimated using a bootstrap DEA model. In the second stage, a truncated regression is employed to quantify the economic drivers underlying measured technical efficiency. The results highlight the key role played by non-discretionary inputs in measures of airline technical efficiency.

Development of a high-level gene expression system for the production of bioplastics in sugarcane

Despite various approaches, the production of biodegradable plastics such as polyhydroxybutyrate (PHB) in transgenic plants has met with limited success due largely to low expression levels. Even in the few instances where high levels of protein expression have been reported, the transgenic plants have been stunted indicating PHB is phytotoxic (Poirier 2002). This PhD describes the application of a novel virus-based gene expression technology, termed InPAct („In Plant Activation.), for the production of PHB in tobacco and sugarcane. InPAct is based on the rolling circle replication mechanism by which circular ssDNA viruses replicate and provides a system for controlled, high-level gene expression. Based on these features, InPAct was thought to represent an ideal system to enable the controlled, high-level expression of the three phb genes (phbA, phbB and phbC) required for PHB production in sugarcane at a preferred stage of plant growth. A Tobacco yellow dwarf virus (TbYDV)-based InPAct-phbA vector, as well as linear vectors constitutively expressing phbB and phbC were constructed and different combinations were used to transform tobacco leaf discs. A total of four, eight, three and three phenotypically normal tobacco lines were generated from discs transformed with InPAct-phbA, InPAct-phbA + p1300-TaBV P-phbB/phbC- 35S T, p1300-35S P-phbA-NOS T + p1300-TaBV P-phbB/phbC-35S T and InPAct-GUS, respectively. To determine whether the InPAct cassette could be activated in the presence of the TbYDV Rep, leaf samples from the eight InPActphbA + p1300-TaBV P-phbB/phbC-35S T plants were agroinfiltrated with p1300- TbYDV-Rep/RepA. Three days later, successful activation was indicated by the detection of episomes using both PCR and Southern analysis. Leaf discs from the eight InPAct-phbA + p1300-TaBV P-phbB/phbC-35S T transgenic plant lines were agroinfiltrated with p1300-TbYDV-Rep/RepA and leaf tissue was collected ten days post-infiltration and examined for the presence of PHB granules. Confocal microscopy and TEM revealed the presence of typical PHB granules in five of the eight lines, thus demonstrating the functionality of InPActbased PHB production in tobacco. However, analysis of leaf extracts by HPLC failed to detect the presence of PHB suggesting only very low level expression levels. Subsequent molecular analysis of three lines revealed low levels of correctly processed mRNA from the catalase intron contained within the InPAct cassette and also the presence of cryptic splice sites within the intron. In an attempt to increase expression levels, new InPAct-phb cassettes were generated in which the castorbean catalase intron was replaced with a synthetic intron (syntron). Further, in an attempt to both increase and better control Rep/RepA-mediated activation of InPAct cassettes, Rep/RepA expression was placed under the control of a stably integrated alc switch. Leaf discs from a transgenic tobacco line (Alc ML) containing 35S P-AlcR-AlcA P-Rep/RepA were supertransformed with InPAct-phbAsyn or InPAct-GUSsyn using Agrobacterium and three plants (lines) were regenerated for each construct. Analysis of the RNA processing of the InPAct-phbAsyn cassette revealed highly efficient and correct splicing of the syntron, thus supporting its inclusion within the InPAct system. To determine the efficiency of the alc switch to activate InPAct, leaf material from the three Alc ML + InPAct-phbAsyn lines was either agroinfiltrated with 35S P-Rep/RepA or treated with ethanol. Unexpectedly, episomes were detected not only in the infiltrated and ethanol treated samples, but also in non-treated samples. Subsequent analysis of transgenic Alc ML + InPAct-GUS lines, confirmed that the alc switch was leaky in tissue culture. Although this was shown to be reversible once plants were removed from the tissue culture environment, it made the regeneration of Alc ML + InPAct-phbsyn plant lines extremely difficult, due to unintentional Rep expression and therefore high levels of phb expression and phytotoxic PHB production. Two Alc ML + InPAct-phbAsyn + p1300-TaBV P-phbB/phbC-35S T transgenic lines were able to be regenerated, and these were acclimatised, alcohol-treated and analysed. Although episome formation was detected as late as 21 days post activation, no PHB was detected in the leaves of any plants using either microscopy or HPLC, suggesting the presence of a corrupt InPAct-phbA cassette in both lines. The final component of this thesis involved the application of both the alc switch and the InPAct systems to sugarcane in an attempt to produce PHB. Initial experiments using transgenic Alc ML + InPAct-GUS lines indicated that the alc system was not functional in sugarcane under the conditions tested. The functionality of the InPAct system, independent of the alc gene switch, was subsequently examined by bombarding the 35S Rep/RepA cassette into leaf and immature leaf whorl cells derived from InPAct-GUS transgenic sugarcane plants. No GUS expression was observed in leaf tissue, whereas weak and irregular GUS expression was observed in immature leaf whorl tissue derived from two InPAct- GUS lines and two InPAct-GUS + 35S P-AlcR-AlcA P-GUS lines. The most plausible reason to explain the inconsistent and low levels of GUS expression in leaf whorls is a combination of low numbers of sugarcane cells in the DNA replication-conducive S-phase and the irregular and random nature of sugarcane cells bombarded with Rep/RepA. This study details the first report to develop a TbYDV-based InPAct system under control of the alc switch to produce PHB in tobacco and sugarcane. Despite the inability to detect quantifiable levels of PHB levels in either tobacco or sugarcane, the findings of this study should nevertheless assist in the further development of both the InPAct system and the alc system, particularly for sugarcane and ultimately lead to an ethanol-inducible InPAct gene expression system for the production of bioplastics and other proteins of commercial value in plants.

Determinants of skin self-examination (SSE) in men aged 50 years or older

Background: Queensland men aged 50 years and older are at high risk for melanoma. Early detection via skin self examination (SSE) (particularly whole-body SSE) followed by presentation to a doctor with suspicious lesions, may decrease morbidity and mortality from melanoma. Prevalence of whole-body SSE (wbSSE) is lower in Queensland older men compared to other population subgroups. With the exception of the present study no previous research has investigated the determinants of wbSSE in older men, or interventions to increase the behaviour in this population. Furthermore, although past SSE intervention studies for other populations have cited health behaviour models in the development of interventions, no study has tested these models in full. The Skin Awareness Study: A recent randomised trial, called the Skin Awareness Study, tested the impact of a video-delivered intervention compared to written materials alone on wbSSE in men aged 50 years or older (n=930). Men were recruited from the general population and interviewed over the telephone at baseline and 13 months. The proportion of men who reported wbSSE rose from 10% to 31% in the control group, and from 11% to 36% in the intervention group. Current research: The current research was a secondary analysis of data collected for the Skin Awareness Study. The objectives were as follows: • To describe how men who did not take up any SSE during the study period differed from those who did take up examining their skin. • To determine whether the intervention program was successful in affecting the constructs of the Health Belief Model it was aimed at (self-efficacy, perceived threat, and outcome expectations); and whether this in turn influenced wbSSE. • To determine whether the Health Action Process Approach (HAPA) was a better predictor of wbSSE behaviour compared to the Health Belief Model (HBM). Methods: For objective 1, men who did not report any past SSE at baseline (n=308) were categorised as having ‘taken up SSE’ (reported SSE at study end) or ‘resisted SSE’ (reported no SSE at study end). Bivariate logistic regression, followed by multivariable regression, investigated the association between participant characteristics measured at baseline and resisting SSE. For objective 2 proxy measures of self-efficacy, perceived threat, and outcome expectations were selected. To determine whether these mediated the effect of the intervention on the outcome, a mediator analysis was performed with all participants who completed interviews at both time points (n=830) following the Baron and Kenny approach, modified for use with structural equation modelling (SEM). For objective 3, control group participants only were included (n=410). Proxy measures of all HBM and HAPA constructs were selected and SEM was used to build up models and test the significance of each hypothesised pathway. A likelihood ratio test compared the HAPA to the HBM. Results: Amongst men who did not report any SSE at baseline, 27% did not take up any SSE by the end of the study. In multivariable analyses, resisting SSE was associated with having more freckly skin (p=0.027); being unsure about the statement ‘if I saw something suspicious on my skin, I’d go to the doctor straight away’ (p=0.028); not intending to perform SSE (p=0.015), having lower SSE self-efficacy (p<0.001), and having no recommendation for SSE from a doctor (p=0.002). In the mediator analysis none of the tested variables mediated the relationship between the intervention and wbSSE. In regards to health behaviour models, the HBM did not predict wbSSE well overall. Only the construct of self-efficacy was a significant predictor of future wbSSE (p=0.001), while neither perceived threat (p=0.584) nor outcome expectations (p=0.220) were. By contrast, when the HAPA constructs were added, all three HBM variables predicted intention to perform SSE, which in turn predicted future behaviour (p=0.015). The HAPA construct of volitional self-efficacy was also associated with wbSSE (p=0.046). The HAPA was a significantly better model compared to the HBM (p<0.001). Limitations: Items selected to measure HBM and HAPA model constructs for objectives 2 and 3 may not have accurately reflected each construct. Conclusions: This research added to the evidence base on how best to target interventions to older men; and on the appropriateness of particular health behaviour models to guide interventions. Findings indicate that to overcome resistance those men with more negative pre-existing attitudes to SSE (not intending to do it, lower initial self-efficacy) may need to be targeted with more intensive interventions in the future. Involving general practitioners in recommending SSE to their patients in this population, alongside disseminating an intervention, may increase its success. Comparison of the HBM and HAPA showed that while two of the three HBM variables examined did not directly predict future wbSSE, all three were associated with intention to self-examine skin. This suggests that in this population, intervening on these variables may increase intention to examine skin, but not necessarily the behaviour itself. Future interventions could potentially focus on increasing both the motivational variables of perceived threat and outcome expectations as well as a combination of both action and volitional self-efficacy; with the aim of increasing intention as well as its translation to taking up and maintaining regular wbSSE.