Multi-step ahead direct prediction for the machine condition prognosis using regression trees and neuro-fuzzy systems

This paper presents an approach to predict the operating conditions of machine based on classification and regression trees (CART) and adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) in association with direct prediction strategy for multi-step ahead prediction of time series techniques. In this study, the number of available observations and the number of predicted steps are initially determined by using false nearest neighbor method and auto mutual information technique, respectively. These values are subsequently utilized as inputs for prediction models to forecast the future values of the machines’ operating conditions. The performance of the proposed approach is then evaluated by using real trending data of low methane compressor. A comparative study of the predicted results obtained from CART and ANFIS models is also carried out to appraise the prediction capability of these models. The results show that the ANFIS prediction model can track the change in machine conditions and has the potential for using as a tool to machine fault prognosis.

How can soil monitoring networks be used to improve predictions of organic carbon pool dynamics and CO2 fluxes in agricultural soils?

Abstract As regional and continental carbon balances of terrestrial ecosystems become available, it becomes clear that the soils are the largest source of uncertainty. Repeated inventories of soil organic carbon (SOC) organized in soil monitoring networks (SMN) are being implemented in a number of countries. This paper reviews the concepts and design of SMNs in ten countries, and discusses the contribution of such networks to reducing the uncertainty of soil carbon balances. Some SMNs are designed to estimate country-specific land use or management effects on SOC stocks, while others collect soil carbon and ancillary data to provide a nationally consistent assessment of soil carbon condition across the major land-use/soil type combinations. The former use a single sampling campaign of paired sites, while for the latter both systematic (usually grid based) and stratified repeated sampling campaigns (5–10 years interval) are used with densities of one site per 10–1,040 km². For paired sites, multiple samples at each site are taken in order to allow statistical analysis, while for the single sites, composite samples are taken. In both cases, fixed depth increments together with samples for bulk density and stone content are recommended. Samples should be archived to allow for re-measurement purposes using updated techniques. Information on land management, and where possible, land use history should be systematically recorded for each site. A case study of the agricultural frontier in Brazil is presented in which land use effect factors are calculated in order to quantify the CO2 fluxes from national land use/management conversion matrices. Process-based SOC models can be run for the individual points of the SMN, provided detailed land management records are available. These studies are still rare, as most SMNs have been implemented recently or are in progress. Examples from the USA and Belgium show that uncertainties in SOC change range from 1.6–6.5 Mg C ha−1 for the prediction of SOC stock changes on individual sites to 11.72 Mg C ha−1 or 34% of the median SOC change for soil/land use/climate units. For national SOC monitoring, stratified sampling sites appears to be the most straightforward attribution of SOC values to units with similar soil/land use/climate conditions (i.e. a spatially implicit upscaling approach). Keywords Soil monitoring networks - Soil organic carbon - Modeling - Sampling design

Rare earth element geochemistry of scleractinian coral skeleton during meteoric diagenesis: A sequence through neomorphism of aragonite to calcite

Rare earth element geochemistry in carbonate rocks is utilized increasingly for studying both modern oceans and palaeoceanography, with additional applications for investigating water–rock interactions in groundwater and carbonate diagenesis. However, the study of rare earth element geochemistry in ancient rocks requires the preservation of their distribution patterns through subsequent diagenesis. The subjects of this study, Pleistocene scleractinian coral skeletons from Windley Key, Florida, have undergone partial to complete neomorphism from aragonite to calcite in a meteoric setting; they allow direct comparison of rare earth element distributions in original coral skeleton and in neomorphic calcite. Neomorphism occurred in a vadose setting along a thin film, with degradation of organic matter playing an initial role in controlling the morphology of the diagenetic front. As expected, minor element concentrations vary significantly between skeletal aragonite and neomorphic calcite, with Sr, Ba and U decreasing in concentration and Mn increasing in concentration in the calcite, suggesting that neomorphism took place in an open system. However, rare earth elements were largely retained during neomorphism, with precipitating cements taking up excess rare earth elements released from dissolved carbonates from higher in the karst system. Preserved rare earth element patterns in the stabilized calcite closely reflect the original rare earth element patterns of the corals and associated reef carbonates. However, minor increases in light rare earth element depletion and negative Ce anomalies may reflect shallow oxidized groundwater processes, whereas decreasing light rare earth element depletion may reflect mixing of rare earth elements from associated microbialites or contamination from insoluble residues. Regardless of these minor disturbances, the results indicate that rare earth elements, unlike many minor elements, behave very conservatively during meteoric diagenesis. As the meteoric transformation of aragonite to calcite is a near worst case scenario for survival of original marine trace element distributions, this study suggests that original rare earth element patterns may commonly be preserved in ancient limestones, thus providing support for the use of ancient marine limestones as proxies for marine rare earth element geochemistry.

Review of refugee mental health assessment: Best practices and recommendations

This article focuses on mental health assessment of refugees in clinical, educational and administrative-legal settings in order to synthesise research and practice designed to enhance and promote further development of culturally appropriate clinical assessment services during the refugee resettlement process. It specifically surveys research published over the last 25 years into the development, reliability measurement and validity testing of assessment instruments, which have been used with children, adolescents and adults from refugee backgrounds, prior to or following their arrival in a resettlement country, to determine whether the instruments meet established crosscultural standards of conceptual, functional, linguistic, technical and normative equivalence. The findings suggest that, although attempts have been made to develop internally reliable, appropriately normed tests for use with refugees from diverse cultural and linguistic backgrounds, matters of conceptual and linguistic equivalence and test–retest reliability are often overlooked. Implications of these oversights for underreporting refugees' mental health needs are considered. Efforts should also be directed towards development of culturally comparable, valid and reliable measures of refugee children's mental health and of refugee children's and adults' psychoeducational, neuropsychological and applied memory capabilities.

Developing shared understandings of standards-based assessment : online moderation practices across geographically diverse contexts

This thesis investigates the place of online moderation in supporting teachers to work in a system of standards-based assessment. The participants of the study were fifty middle school teachers who met online with the aim of developing consistency in their judgement decisions. Data were gathered through observation of the online meetings, interviews, surveys and the collection of artefacts. The data were viewed and analysed through sociocultural theories of learning and sociocultural theories of technology, and demonstrates how utilising these theories can add depth to understanding the added complexity of developing shared meaning of standards in an online context. The findings contribute to current understanding of standards-based assessment by examining the social moderation process as it acts to increase the reliability of judgements that are made within a standards framework. Specifically, the study investigates the opportunities afforded by conducting social moderation practices in a synchronous online context. The study explicates how the technology affects the negotiation of judgements and the development of shared meanings of assessment standards, while demonstrating how involvement in online moderation discussions can support teachers to become and belong within a practice of standards-based assessment. This research responds to a growing international interest in standards-based assessment and the use of social moderation to develop consistency in judgement decisions. Online moderation is a new practice to address these concerns on a systemic basis.

Assessment of pre- and post-flood groundwater recharge via 3D visualisation, Lockyer Valley, southeast Queensland

The Lockyer Valley in southeast Queensland supports important and intensive irrigation which is dependant on the quality and availability of groundwater. Prolonged drought conditions from ~1997 resulted in a depletion of the alluvial aquifers, and concern for the long-term sustainability of this resource. By 2008, many areas of the valley were at < 20% of storage. Some relief occurred with rain events in early 2009, then in December 2010 - January 2011, most of southeast Queensland experienced unprecedented flooding. These storm-based events have caused a shift in research focus from investigations of drought conditions and mitigation to flood response analysis. For the alluvial aquifer system of the valley, a preliminary assessment of groundwater observation bore data, prior to and during the flood, indicates that there is a spatially variable aquifer response. While water levels in some bores screened in unconfined shallow aquifers have recovered by more than 10 m within a short period of time (months), others show only a small or moderate response. Measurements of pre- and post-flood groundwater levels and high-resolution time-series records from data loggers are considered within the framework of a 3D geological model of the Lockyer Valley using Groundwater Visualisation System(GVS). Groundwater level fluctuations covering both drought and flood periods are used to estimate groundwater recharge using the water table fluctuation method (WTF), supplemented by estimates derived using chloride mass balance. The presentation of hydraulic and recharge information in a 3D format has considerable advantages over the traditional 2D presentation of data. The 3D approach allows the distillation of multiple types of information(topography, geological, hydraulic and spatial) into one representation that provides valuable insights into the major controls of groundwater flow and recharge. The influence of aquifer lithology on the spatial variability of groundwater recharge is also demonstrated.

A case for addressing the literacy demands of student assessment

The development and implementation of the Australian Curriculum together with national testing of students and the publication of school results place new demands on teachers. In this article we address the importance of teachers becoming attuned to the silent assessors in assessment generally and in the National Literacy and Numeracy Program (NAPLAN) more specifically. Using the concept of literacies, we develop a method to conduct a literacy audit of assessment tasks that teachers can use to help both themselves and their students. Providing assistance to students as a consequence of such an audit is imperative to improve the outcomes for students and to address issues of equity.