Calculate excess mortality during heatwaves using Hilbert-Huang transform algorithm

Background Heatwaves could cause the population excess death numbers to be ranged from tens to thousands within a couple of weeks in a local area. An excess mortality due to a special event (e.g., a heatwave or an epidemic outbreak) is estimated by subtracting the mortality figure under ‘normal’ conditions from the historical daily mortality records. The calculation of the excess mortality is a scientific challenge because of the stochastic temporal pattern of the daily mortality data which is characterised by (a) the long-term changing mean levels (i.e., non-stationarity); (b) the non-linear temperature-mortality association. The Hilbert-Huang Transform (HHT) algorithm is a novel method originally developed for analysing the non-linear and non-stationary time series data in the field of signal processing, however, it has not been applied in public health research. This paper aimed to demonstrate the applicability and strength of the HHT algorithm in analysing health data. Methods Special R functions were developed to implement the HHT algorithm to decompose the daily mortality time series into trend and non-trend components in terms of the underlying physical mechanism. The excess mortality is calculated directly from the resulting non-trend component series. Results The Brisbane (Queensland, Australia) and the Chicago (United States) daily mortality time series data were utilized for calculating the excess mortality associated with heatwaves. The HHT algorithm estimated 62 excess deaths related to the February 2004 Brisbane heatwave. To calculate the excess mortality associated with the July 1995 Chicago heatwave, the HHT algorithm needed to handle the mode mixing issue. The HHT algorithm estimated 510 excess deaths for the 1995 Chicago heatwave event. To exemplify potential applications, the HHT decomposition results were used as the input data for a subsequent regression analysis, using the Brisbane data, to investigate the association between excess mortality and different risk factors. Conclusions The HHT algorithm is a novel and powerful analytical tool in time series data analysis. It has a real potential to have a wide range of applications in public health research because of its ability to decompose a nonlinear and non-stationary time series into trend and non-trend components consistently and efficiently.

Label-free SERS for natural product provenance

Introduction Natural product provenance is important in the food, beverage and pharmaceutical industries, for consumer confidence and with health implications. Raman spectroscopy has powerful molecular fingerprint abilities. Surface Enhanced Raman Spectroscopy’s (SERS) sharp peaks allow distinction between minimally different molecules, so it should be suitable for this purpose. Methods Naturally caffeinated beverages with Guarana extract, coffee and Red Bull energy drink as a synthetic caffeinated beverage for comparison (20 µL ea.) were reacted 1:1 with Gold nanoparticles functionalised with anti-caffeine antibody (ab15221) (10 minutes), air dried and analysed in a micro-Raman instrument. The spectral data was processed using Principle Component Analysis (PCA). Results The PCA showed Guarana sourced caffeine varied significantly from synthetic caffeine (Red Bull) on component 1 (containing 76.4% of the variance in the data). See figure 1. The coffee containing beverages, and in particular Robert Timms (instant coffee) were very similar on component 1, but the barista espresso showed minor variance on component 1. Both coffee sourced caffeine samples varied with red Bull on component 2, (20% of variance). ************************************************************ Figure 1 PCA comparing a naturally caffeinated beverage containing Guarana with coffee. ************************************************************ Discussion PCA is an unsupervised multivariate statistical method that determines patterns within data. Figure 1 shows Caffeine in Guarana is notably different to synthetic caffeine. Other researchers have revealed that caffeine in Guarana plants is complexed with tannins. Naturally sourced/ lightly processed caffeine (Monster Energy, Espresso) are more inherently different than synthetic (Red Bull) /highly processed (Robert Timms) caffeine, in figure 1, which is consistent with this finding and demonstrates this technique’s applicability. Guarana provenance is important because it is still largely hand produced and its demand is escalating with recognition of its benefits. This could be a powerful technique for Guarana provenance, and may extend to other industries where provenance / authentication are required, e.g. the wine or natural pharmaceuticals industries.

An analysis of dispute review boards and settlement mediation as used in the Australian construction industry

If there is a silver lining to the adversarial, dispute-prone nature of the building and construction industry, it can be found in the concomitant rise of innovative dispute resolution mechanisms. Time, cost and relationship concerns have meant that the formal adversarial system holds little appeal for disputing parties. As these alternative forms of dispute avoidance/resolution have matured in Australia over the last 20 years, attention has turned to the key characteristics of each process and their suitability to the building and construction industry. This article considers the role of dispute review boards (DRBs) and mediation as two alternative methods for avoiding/resolving disputes in the construction industry. Criteria are established for evaluating the efficacy of these procedures and their sensitivity to the needs of construction industry disputants. The ultimate conclusion reached is that DRBs represent a powerful, yet underutilised dispute resolution tool in Australia, and possess many industry-specific advantages that more traditional forms of alternative dispute resolution (particularly mediation) do not provide.

Management of project knowledge in a project-based organisation : a case study of research enterprise

Knowledge Management (KM) is vital factor to successfully undertake projects. The temporary nature of projects necessitates employing useful KM practices to reduce any issues such as knowledge leakiness and rework. The Project Management Office (PMO) is a unit within organisations to facilitate and oversee organisational projects. Project Management Maturity Models (PMMM) show the development of PMOs from immature to mature levels. The existing PMMMs have focused on discussing Project Management (PM) practices, however, the management of project knowledge is yet to be addressed, at various levels of maturity. A research project was undertaken to investigate the mentioned gap for addressing KM practices at the existing PMMMs. Due to the exploratory and inductive nature of this research, qualitative methods using case studies were chosen as the research methodology to investigate the problem in the real world. In total, three cases selected from different industries: research; mining and government organisations, to provide broad categories for research and research questions were examined using the developed framework. This paper presents the findings from the investigation of the research organisation with the lowest level of maturity. From KM process point of view, knowledge creation and capturing are the most important processes, while knowledge transferring and reusing received less attention. In addition, it was revealed that provision of “knowledge about client” and “project management knowledge” are the most important types of knowledge that are required at this level of maturity. The results also revealed that PMOs with higher maturity level have better knowledge management, however, some improvement is needed. In addition, the importance of KM processes varies at different levels of maturity. In conclusion, the outcomes of this paper could provide powerful guidance to PMOs at lowest level of maturity from KM point of view.

A finite volume scheme with preconditioned Lanczos method for two-dimensional space-fractional reaction–diffusion equations

Fractional differential equations have been increasingly used as a powerful tool to model the non-locality and spatial heterogeneity inherent in many real-world problems. However, a constant challenge faced by researchers in this area is the high computational expense of obtaining numerical solutions of these fractional models, owing to the non-local nature of fractional derivatives. In this paper, we introduce a finite volume scheme with preconditioned Lanczos method as an attractive and high-efficiency approach for solving two-dimensional space-fractional reaction–diffusion equations. The computational heart of this approach is the efficient computation of a matrix-function-vector product f(A)bf(A)b, where A A is the matrix representation of the Laplacian obtained from the finite volume method and is non-symmetric. A key aspect of our proposed approach is that the popular Lanczos method for symmetric matrices is applied to this non-symmetric problem, after a suitable transformation. Furthermore, the convergence of the Lanczos method is greatly improved by incorporating a preconditioner. Our approach is show-cased by solving the fractional Fisher equation including a validation of the solution and an analysis of the behaviour of the model.

The IHR (2005), disease surveillance, and the individual in global health politics

Since the revisions to the International Health Regulations (IHR) in 2005, much attention has turned to two concerns relating to infectious disease control. The first is how to assist states to strengthen their capacity to identify and verify public health emergencies of international concern (PHEIC). The second is the question of how the World Health Organization (WHO) will operate its expanded mandate under the revised IHR. Very little attention has been paid to the potential individual power that has been afforded under the IHR revisions – primarily through the first inclusion of human rights principles into the instrument and the allowance for the WHO to receive non-state surveillance intelligence and informal reports of health emergencies. These inclusions mark the individual as a powerful actor, but also recognise the vulnerability of the individual to the whim of the state in outbreak response and containment. In this paper we examine why these changes to the IHR occurred and explore the consequence of expanding the sovereignty-as-responsibility concept to disease outbreak response. To this end our paper considers both the strengths and weaknesses of incorporating reports from non-official sources and including human rights principles in the IHR framework.

Three social car visions to improve driver behaviour

The social cost of road injury and fatalities is still unacceptable. The driver is often mainly responsible for road crashes, therefore changing the driver behaviour is one of the most important and most challenging priority in road transport. This paper presents three innovative visions that articulate the potential of using Vehicle to Vehicle (V2V) communication for supporting the exchange of social information amongst drivers. We argue that there could be tremendous benefits in socialising cars to influence human driving behaviours for the better and that this aspect is still relevant in the age of looming autonomous cars. Our visions provide theoretical grounding how V2V infrastructure and emerging human–machine interfaces (HMI) could persuade drivers to: (i) adopt better (e.g. greener) driving practices, (ii) reduce drivers aggressiveness towards pro-social driving behaviours, and (iii) reduce risk-taking behaviour in young, particularly male, adults. The visions present simple but powerful concepts that reveal ‘good’ aspects of the driver behaviour to other drivers and make them contagious. The use of self-efficacy, social norms, gamification theories and social cues could then increase the likelihood of a widespread adoption of such ‘good’ driving behaviours.

Revisiting Polya's summation techniques using a spreadsheet : from addition tables to Bernoulli polynomials

Recurrence relations in mathematics form a very powerful and compact way of looking at a wide range of relationships. Traditionally, the concept of recurrence has often been a difficult one for the secondary teacher to convey to students. Closely related to the powerful proof technique of mathematical induction, recurrences are able to capture many relationships in formulas much simpler than so-called direct or closed formulas. In computer science, recursive coding often has a similar compactness property, and, perhaps not surprisingly, suffers from similar problems in the classroom as recurrences: the students often find both the basic concepts and practicalities elusive. Using models designed to illuminate the relevant principles for the students, we offer a range of examples which use the modern spreadsheet environment to powerfully illustrate the great expressive and computational power of recurrences.

The Hollywood effect : a comparative study of costume in Australia and the Proposition

This paper compares costuming practices in Baz Luhrmann’s Australia (2008) and John Hillcoat’s The Proposition (2005) and argues that high production values, such as in the blockbuster Australia, are not neutral mechanisms of production, but powerful prescriptive elements which do not result in a successful representation of cultural specificity. Australia is a typical blockbuster, it employs a large number of extras, it features compelling landscape shots, has been shot across four different locations and sets, and, importantly, is an international production with the 20th Century Fox. The film’s costumes were designed by Catherine Martin, who received an Oscar nomination in 2009. While global exposure of fashion in film and through celebrities’ endorsements has consolidated a historical synergy between the fashion industry and Hollywood, the Australian film and fashion industries have had a very limited exchange. Baz Luhrmann’s film is Australia’s first instance of promo-costuming and use of tie-in labels (Ferragamo, R.M.Williams, Prada, Paspaley). Catherine Martin thoroughly researched 1930s women’s wear, indigenous and stockmen’s clothing, and set up to make all costumes with a large team of costumiers and seamstresses, striving for authenticity. The Proposition won its costume designer Margot Wilson an AFI in 2005 for best costume, but compared to Australia the story, location and costumes are far harsher. Filmed around Winton in far west Queensland, the director John Hillcoat and Director of Photography Benoit Delhomme were insistent about realism, and emphasising the harshness of the Australian landscape. The realism of the costumes was derived from the fabrics and manufacturing, as well as the way they were shot, with the actors often wearing two or three layers of heavy wool during days of shooting in 50 degree heat, and the details of making and breaking down. The implication is that both films are culturally specific as they both deal with an Australian story. However, Australia is clearly produced according to a Hollywood blockbuster model, and closely matches Hollywood’s narrative and aesthetic characteristics, while The Proposition is a more modest film that eschews these conventions of beauty and glossed history. Despite its western genre-orientation, The Proposition is more successful than Australia when it comes to costuming, because its costumes are not only functional to the narrative, but, in Roland Barthes’ words, they also fulfil a prestation. This prestation highlights the social and cultural conflicts on which colonial Australia was founded, instead of gilding, and gliding, over them.

Current control in the magnetron systems for nanofabrication : a comparison

A cylindrical magnetron system and a hybrid inductively coupled plasma-assisted magnetron deposition system were examined experimentally in light of their discharge characteristics with a view to stress the enhanced controllability of the hybrid system. The comparative study has shown that the hybrid magnetron + the inductively coupled plasma system is a flexible, powerful, and convenient tool that has certain advantages as compared with the cylindrical dc magnetrons. In particular, the hybrid system features more linear current-voltage characteristics and the possibility of a bias-independent control of the discharge current.

Models of social media adoption in emergency management organisations

Recent natural disasters such as the Haitian earthquake 2011, the South East Queensland floods 2011, the Japanese earthquake and tsunami 2011 and Hurricane Sandy in the United States of America in 2012, have seen social media platforms changing the face of emergency management communications, not only in times of crisis and also during business-as-usual operations. With social media being such an important and powerful communication tool, especially for emergency management organisations, the question arises as to whether the use of social media in these organisations emerged by considered strategic design or more as a reactive response to a new and popular communication channel. This paper provides insight into how the social media function has been positioned, staffed and managed in organisations throughout the world, with a particular focus on how these factors influence the style of communication used on social media platforms. This study has identified that the social media function falls on a continuum between two polarised models, namely the authoritative one-way communication approach and the more interactive approach that seeks to network and engage with the community through multi-way communication. Factors such the size of the organisation; dedicated resourcing of the social media function; organisational culture and mission statement; the presence of a social media champion within the organisation; management style and knowledge about social media play a key role in determining where on the continuum organisations sit in relation to their social media capability. This review, together with a forthcoming survey of Australian emergency management organisations and local governments, will fill a gap in the current body of knowledge about the evolution, positioning and usage of social media in organisations working in the emergency management field in Australia. These findings will be fed back to Industry for potential inclusion in future strategies and practices.

A promise and a possibility : the limitations of the traditional criminal justice system as an explanation for the emergence of restorative justice

The claim that restorative justice emerged in response to the failings of the traditional criminal justice system is frequently made and rarely challenged in the restorative justice literature. It is stated unproblematically, as though it is an unassailable fact rather than a powerful truth claim, thereby positioning restorative justice as a natural, progressive and superior model of justice in comparison with the traditional criminal justice system. This truth claim therefore bestows restorative justice with a legitimacy that is difficult to challenge or refute. Drawing on a Foucaultian genealogy of restorative justice, this article seeks to destabilise the truth claim that restorative justice emerged in response to the failings of the criminal justice system. While the shortcomings of the traditional criminal justice system may provide a backdrop to the emergence of restorative justice, this article argues that such a possibility makes restorative justice a possibility rather than an inevitability.

Late Pleistocene stratigraphy of IODP Site U1396 and compiled chronology offshore of south and south west Montserrat, Lesser Antilles

Marine sediments around volcanic islands contain an archive of volcaniclastic deposits, which can be used to reconstruct the volcanic history of an area. Such records hold many advantages over often incomplete terrestrial datasets. This includes the potential for precise and continuous dating of intervening sediment packages, which allow a correlatable and temporally-constrained stratigraphic framework to be constructed across multiple marine sediment cores. Here, we discuss a marine record of eruptive and mass-wasting events spanning ~250 ka offshore of Montserrat, using new data from IODP Expedition 340, as well as previously collected cores. By using a combination of high-resolution oxygen isotope stratigraphy, AMS radiocarbon dating, biostratigraphy of foraminifera and calcareous nannofossils and clast componentry, we identify five major events at Soufriere Hills volcano since 250 ka. Lateral correlation of these events across sediment cores collected offshore of the south and south west of Montserrat, have improved our understanding of the timing, extent and associations between events in this area. Correlations reveal that powerful and potentially erosive density-currents travelled at least 33 km offshore, and demonstrate that marine deposits, produced by eruption-fed and mass-wasting events on volcanic islands, are heterogeneous in their spatial distribution. Thus, multiple drilling/coring sites are needed to reconstruct the full chronostratigraphy of volcanic islands. This multidisciplinary study will be vital to interpreting the chaotic records of submarine landslides at other sites drilled during Expedition 340 and provides a framework that can be applied to the stratigraphic analysis of sediments surrounding other volcanic islands.

Myeloma-induced alloreactive T cells arising in myeloma-infiltrated bones include double-positive CD8+CD4+ T cells : evidence from myeloma-bearing mouse model

The graft-versus-myeloma (GVM) effect represents a powerful form of immune attack exerted by alloreactive T cells against multiple myeloma cells, which leads to clinical responses in multiple myeloma transplant recipients. Whether myeloma cells are themselves able to induce alloreactive T cells capable of the GVM effect is not defined. Using adoptive transfer of T naive cells into myeloma-bearing mice (established by transplantation of human RPMI8226-TGL myeloma cells into CD122(+) cell-depleted NOD/SCID hosts), we found that myeloma cells induced alloreactive T cells that suppressed myeloma growth and prolonged survival of T cell recipients. Myeloma-induced alloreactive T cells arising in the myeloma-infiltrated bones exerted cytotoxic activity against resident myeloma cells, but limited activity against control myeloma cells obtained from myeloma-bearing mice that did not receive T naive cells. These myeloma-induced alloreactive T cells were derived through multiple CD8(+) T cell divisions and enriched in double-positive (DP) T cells coexpressing the CD8alphaalpha and CD4 coreceptors. MHC class I expression on myeloma cells and contact with T cells were required for CD8(+) T cell divisions and DP-T cell development. DP-T cells present in myeloma-infiltrated bones contained a higher proportion of cells expressing cytotoxic mediators IFN-gamma and/or perforin compared with single-positive CD8(+) T cells, acquired the capacity to degranulate as measured by CD107 expression, and contributed to an elevated perforin level seen in the myeloma-infiltrated bones. These observations suggest that myeloma-induced alloreactive T cells arising in myeloma-infiltrated bones are enriched with DP-T cells equipped with cytotoxic effector functions that are likely to be involved in the GVM effect.

The Researcher Librarian Partnership : building a culture of research

Increasingly, the library and information science (LIS) practitioner is being challenged to incorporate research into the context of their professional work. This paper reports on the Researcher-Librarian Partnership, a research-mentoring program that was initiated by the International Federation of the Library Association and Institutions. Six new LIS practitioners within their first seven years of professional practice took part in the program. Each was partnered with an experienced LIS researcher who provided mentoring and support. During the 12-month program the new professionals designed and implemented a research project on a topic of interest. This paper outlines the details of the program providing observations on how research mentoring can be a powerful way to ensure all stakeholders – practitioners, educators and professional associations – can plan an active role in supporting the development of a research culture within the profession.