Lesion selection by melanoma high-risk consumers during skin self-examination using mobile teledermoscopy

Mobile teledermatoscopy (MTD) for the early detection of skin cancer uses smartphones with dermatoscope attachments to magnify, capture, and transfer images remotely.1 Using the asymmetry–color variation (AC) rule, consumers achieve dermoscopy sensitivity of 92.9% to 94.0% and specificity of 62.0% to 64.2% for melanoma.2 This pilot randomized trial assessed lesions of concern selected by consumers at high risk of melanoma using MTD plus the AC rule (intervention, n = 10) or the AC rule alone (control, n = 12) during skin self-examination (SSE). Also measured were lesion location patterns, lesions overlooked by participants, provisional clinical diagnoses, likelihood of malignant tumor, and participant pressure to excise lesions.

Characteristics of nontuberculous mycobacteria from a municipal water distribution system and their relevance to human infections

This thesis documented pathogenic species of nontuberculous mycobacteria in the Brisbane water distribution system. When water and shower aerosol strains were compared with human strains of mycobacteria, the study found that the likelihood of acquiring infection from municipal water was specific for four main species. The method for isolation of mycobacteria from water was refined, followed by sampling from 220 sites across Brisbane. A variety of species (incl 15 pathogens) were identified and genotypically compared to human strains. For M. abscessus and M. lentiflavum, water strains clustered with human strains. Pathogenic strains of M. kansasii were found, though non-pathogenic strains dominated. Waterborne strains of M. fortuitum differed to human strains. Extensive home sampling of 20 patients with NTM disease, supported the theory that the risk of acquiring NTM from water or shower aerosols appears species specific for M. avium, M. kansasii, M. lentiflavum and M. abscessus.

The role of sleepiness, sleep disorders, and the work environment on heavy-vehicle crashes in 2 Australian states

Heavy-vehicle driving involves a challenging work environment and a high crash rate. We investigated the associations of sleepiness, sleep disorders, and work environment (including truck characteristics) with the risk of crashing between 2008 and 2011 in the Australian states of New South Wales and Western Australia. We conducted a case-control study of 530 heavy-vehicle drivers who had recently crashed and 517 heavy-vehicle drivers who had not. Drivers' crash histories, truck details, driving schedules, payment rates, sleep patterns, and measures of health were collected. Subjects wore a nasal flow monitor for 1 night to assess for obstructive sleep apnea. Driving schedules that included the period between midnight and 5:59 am were associated with increased likelihood of crashing (odds ratio = 3.42, 95% confidence interval: 2.04, 5.74), as were having an empty load (odds ratio = 2.61, 95% confidence interval: 1.72, 3.97) and being a less experienced driver (odds ratio = 3.25, 95% confidence interval: 2.37, 4.46). Not taking regular breaks and the lack of vehicle safety devices were also associated with increased crash risk. Despite the high prevalence of obstructive sleep apnea, it was not associated with the risk of a heavy-vehicle nonfatal, nonsevere crash. Scheduling of driving to avoid midnight-to-dawn driving and the use of more frequent rest breaks are likely to reduce the risk of heavy-vehicle nonfatal, nonsevere crashes by 2–3 times.

Generalised gamma bidding model

A generalised gamma bidding model is presented, which incorporates many previous models. The log likelihood equations are provided. Using a new method of testing, variants of the model are fitted to some real data for construction contract auctions to find the best fitting models for groupings of bidders. The results are examined for simplifying assumptions, including all those in the main literature. These indicate no one model to be best for all datasets. However, some models do appear to perform significantly better than others and it is suggested that future research would benefit from a closer examination of these.

Consistent HMM parameter estimation using Kerridge inaccuracy rates

In this paper, we propose a novel online hidden Markov model (HMM) parameter estimator based on Kerridge inaccuracy rate (KIR) concepts. Under mild identifiability conditions, we prove that our online KIR-based estimator is strongly consistent. In simulation studies, we illustrate the convergence behaviour of our proposed online KIR-based estimator and provide a counter-example illustrating the local convergence properties of the well known recursive maximum likelihood estimator (arguably the best existing solution).

Regulating virtual worlds : considering participant-driven approaches

There are a number of pressing issues facing contemporary online environments that are causing disputes among participants and platform operators and increasing the likelihood of external regulation. A number of solutions have been proposed, including industry self-governance, top-down regulation and emergent self-governance such as EVE Online’s “Council of Stellar Management”. However, none of these solutions seem entirely satisfying; facing challenges from developers who fear regulators will not understand their platforms, or players who feel they are not sufficiently empowered to influence the platform, while many authors have raised concerns over the implementation of top-down regulation, and why the industry may be well-served to pre-empt such action. This paper considers case studies of EVE Online and the offshore gambling industry, and whether a version of self-governance may be suitable for the future of the industry.

Governance challenges in the global games industry

Current governance challenges facing the global games industry are heavily dominated by online games. Whilst much academic and industry attention has been afforded to Virtual Worlds, the more pressing contemporary challenges may arise in casual games, especially when found on social networks. As authorities are faced with an increasing volume of disputes between participants and platform operators, the likelihood of external regulation increases, and the role that such regulation would have on the industry – both internationally and within specific regions – is unclear. Kelly (2010) argues that “when you strip away the graphics of these [social] games, what you are left with is simply a button [...] You push it and then the game returns a value of either Win or Lose”. He notes that while “every game developer wants their game to be played, preferably addictively, because it’s so awesome”, these mechanics lead not to “addiction of engagement through awesomeness” but “the addiction of compulsiveness”, surmising that “the reality is that they’ve actually sort-of kind-of half-intentionally built a virtual slot machine industry”. If such core elements of social game design are questioned, this gives cause to question the real-money options to circumvent them. With players able to purchase virtual currency and speed the completion of tasks, the money invested by the 20% purchasing in-game benefits (Zainwinger, 2012) may well be the result of compulsion. The decision by the Japanese Consumer Affairs agency to investigate the ‘Kompu Gacha’ mechanic (in which players are rewarded for completing a set of items obtained through purchasing virtual goods such as mystery boxes), and the resultant verdict that such mechanics should be regulated through gambling legislation, demonstrates that politicians are beginning to look at the mechanics deployed in these environments. Purewal (2012) states that “there’s a reasonable argument that complete gacha would be regulated under gambling law under at least some (if not most) Western jurisdictions”. This paper explores the governance challenged within these games and platforms, their role in the global industry, and current practice amongst developers in the Australian and United States to address such challenges.

Consumer perceptions of medication warnings about driving : a comparison of French and Australian labels

OBJECTIVE Little research has examined user perceptions of medication warnings about driving. Consumer perceptions of the Australian national approach to medication warnings about driving are examined. The Australian approach to warning presentation is compared with an alternative approach used in France. Visual characteristics of the warnings and overall warning readability are investigated. Risk perceptions and behavioral intentions associated with the warnings are also examined. METHOD Surveys were conducted with 358 public hospital outpatients in Queensland, Australia. Extending this investigation is a supplementary comparison study of French hospital outpatients (n = 75). RESULTS The results suggest that the Australian warning approach of using a combination of visual characteristics is important for consumers but that the use of a pictogram could enhance effects. Significantly higher levels of risk perception were found among the sample for the French highest severity label compared to the analogous mandatory Australian warning, with a similar trend evident in the French study results. The results also indicated that the French label was associated with more cautious behavioral intentions. CONCLUSION The results are potentially important for the Australian approach to medication warnings about driving impairment. The research contributes practical findings that can be used to enhance the effectiveness of warnings and develop countermeasures in this area. Hospital pharmacy patients should include persons with the highest level of likelihood of knowledge and awareness of medication warning labeling. Even in this context it appears that a review of the Australian warning system would be useful particularly in the context of increasing evidence relating to associated driving risks. Reviewing text size and readability of messages including the addition of pictograms, as well as clarifying the importance of potential risk in a general community context, is recommended for consideration and further research.

Laser-camera data discrepancies and reliable perception in outdoor robotics

This work aims to promote integrity in autonomous perceptual systems, with a focus on outdoor unmanned ground vehicles equipped with a camera and a 2D laser range finder. A method to check for inconsistencies between the data provided by these two heterogeneous sensors is proposed and discussed. First, uncertainties in the estimated transformation between the laser and camera frames are evaluated and propagated up to the projection of the laser points onto the image. Then, for each pair of laser scan-camera image acquired, the information at corners of the laser scan is compared with the content of the image, resulting in a likelihood of correspondence. The result of this process is then used to validate segments of the laser scan that are found to be consistent with the image, while inconsistent segments are rejected. Experimental results illustrate how this technique can improve the reliability of perception in challenging environmental conditions, such as in the presence of airborne dust.

Illness behaviour of patients with chronic fatigue syndrome

The study examines the illness behaviour of patients with Chronic Fatigue Syndrome (CFS). The Illness Behaviour Questionnaire (IBQ) the twenty-eight version of the General Health Questionnaire (GBQ-28), and the Beck Depression Inventory (BDI) were administered to forty patients with a diagnosis of CFS. The results revealed that CFS patients in comparison with general practice patients, scored significantly higher on the IBQ sub-scales of General Hypochonriasis, t(188) = 5.2, p < 0.001 and Disease Conviction, t(188) = 13.28, p < 0.001 but lower on the Psychological/Somatic sub-scale, t(188) = -5.88, p < 0.001. The CFS and psychiatric patients did not differ significantly on the general hypochondriasis sub-scale. Results of the GHQ-28 revealed 66.7% of the CFS patients scored above the cut-off for psychiatric morbidity. In comparison to a previous study of CFS patients [1], the current findings indicate a significantly higher score on general hypochondriasis. The implications of these findings are discussed.

Constructing a clinical decision-making framework for image-guided radiotherapy using a Bayesian Network

A decision-making framework for image-guided radiotherapy (IGRT) is being developed using a Bayesian Network (BN) to graphically describe, and probabilistically quantify, the many interacting factors that are involved in this complex clinical process. Outputs of the BN will provide decision-support for radiation therapists to assist them to make correct inferences relating to the likelihood of treatment delivery accuracy for a given image-guided set-up correction. The framework is being developed as a dynamic object-oriented BN, allowing for complex modelling with specific sub-regions, as well as representation of the sequential decision-making and belief updating associated with IGRT. A prototype graphic structure for the BN was developed by analysing IGRT practices at a local radiotherapy department and incorporating results obtained from a literature review. Clinical stakeholders reviewed the BN to validate its structure. The BN consists of a sub-network for evaluating the accuracy of IGRT practices and technology. The directed acyclic graph (DAG) contains nodes and directional arcs representing the causal relationship between the many interacting factors such as tumour site and its associated critical organs, technology and technique, and inter-user variability. The BN was extended to support on-line and off-line decision-making with respect to treatment plan compliance. Following conceptualisation of the framework, the BN will be quantified. It is anticipated that the finalised decision-making framework will provide a foundation to develop better decision-support strategies and automated correction algorithms for IGRT.

The importance of importance : its impact on decision-making in mall retail categories during an economic downturn

The study examines how, during an economic downturn, the perceived importance of the value offering of retail store categories, as identified by a major international mall operator based in Australia, influences the relationship between consumers’ shopping attitudes and likelihood of purchasing in those categories. The findings show variance in the importance pertaining to retail store categories between those that have and those that have not altered their shopping behaviour. Different mediating effects were found in the major, mini-major, leisure, apparel, and mobile phone categories, suggestive of each group having differing levels of self-interest in the value offerings of each category, thus, symptomatic of dissimilar decision-making strategies for each group. Contributions to theory and practice are discussed.

The role of RGPs in modern practice

Has the 1998 prediction of a well-known contact lens researcher – that rigid contact lenses will be obsolete by the year 2010 – come to fruition? This Eulogy to RGPs will demonstrate why it has. A recent survey of international contact lens prescribing trends shows that rigid lenses constituted less than 5% of all contact lenses prescribed in 16 out of 27 nations surveyed. This compares with rigid lenses representing 100% of all lenses prescribed 1965 and about 40% in 1990). With the wide range of sophisticated soft lens materials available today, including super-permeable silicone hydrogels, and designs capable of correcting astigmatism and presbyopia, there is now no need to fit cosmetic patients with rigid lenses, with the associated intractable problems of rigid lens-induced ptosis, 3 and 9 o’clock, staining, lens binding, corneal warpage and adaptation discomfort. Orthokeratology is largely a fringe application of marginal efficacy, and the notion that rigid lenses arrest myopia progression is flawed. That last bastion of rigid lens practice – fitting patients with severely distorted corneas as in keratoconus – is about to crumble in view of a number of demonstrations by independent research groups of the efficacy of custom-designed wavefront-corrected soft contact lenses for the correction of keratoconus. It is concluded that rigid contact lenses now have no place in modern contact lens practice.

GPU accelerated MCMC for modelling terrorist activity

The use of graphical processing unit (GPU) parallel processing is becoming a part of mainstream statistical practice. The reliance of Bayesian statistics on Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods makes the applicability of parallel processing not immediately obvious. It is illustrated that there are substantial gains in improved computational time for MCMC and other methods of evaluation by computing the likelihood using GPU parallel processing. Examples use data from the Global Terrorism Database to model terrorist activity in Colombia from 2000 through 2010 and a likelihood based on the explicit convolution of two negative-binomial processes. Results show decreases in computational time by a factor of over 200. Factors influencing these improvements and guidelines for programming parallel implementations of the likelihood are discussed.

Do prediction markets produce well-calibrated probability forecasts?

This article presents new theoretical and empirical evidence on the forecasting ability of prediction markets. We develop a model that predicts that the time until expiration of a prediction market should negatively affect the accuracy of prices as a forecasting tool in the direction of a ‘favourite/longshot bias’. That is, high-likelihood events are underpriced, and low-likelihood events are over-priced. We confirm this result using a large data set of prediction market transaction prices. Prediction markets are reasonably well calibrated when time to expiration is relatively short, but prices are significantly biased for events farther in the future. When time value of money is considered, the miscalibration can be exploited to earn excess returns only when the trader has a relatively low discount rate.