Stochastic modelling of financial time series with memory and multifractal scaling

Financial processes may possess long memory and their probability densities may display heavy tails. Many models have been developed to deal with this tail behaviour, which reflects the jumps in the sample paths. On the other hand, the presence of long memory, which contradicts the efficient market hypothesis, is still an issue for further debates. These difficulties present challenges with the problems of memory detection and modelling the co-presence of long memory and heavy tails. This PhD project aims to respond to these challenges. The first part aims to detect memory in a large number of financial time series on stock prices and exchange rates using their scaling properties. Since financial time series often exhibit stochastic trends, a common form of nonstationarity, strong trends in the data can lead to false detection of memory. We will take advantage of a technique known as multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MF-DFA) that can systematically eliminate trends of different orders. This method is based on the identification of scaling of the q-th-order moments and is a generalisation of the standard detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) which uses only the second moment; that is, q = 2. We also consider the rescaled range R/S analysis and the periodogram method to detect memory in financial time series and compare their results with the MF-DFA. An interesting finding is that short memory is detected for stock prices of the American Stock Exchange (AMEX) and long memory is found present in the time series of two exchange rates, namely the French franc and the Deutsche mark. Electricity price series of the five states of Australia are also found to possess long memory. For these electricity price series, heavy tails are also pronounced in their probability densities. The second part of the thesis develops models to represent short-memory and longmemory financial processes as detected in Part I. These models take the form of continuous-time AR(∞) -type equations whose kernel is the Laplace transform of a finite Borel measure. By imposing appropriate conditions on this measure, short memory or long memory in the dynamics of the solution will result. A specific form of the models, which has a good MA(∞) -type representation, is presented for the short memory case. Parameter estimation of this type of models is performed via least squares, and the models are applied to the stock prices in the AMEX, which have been established in Part I to possess short memory. By selecting the kernel in the continuous-time AR(∞) -type equations to have the form of Riemann-Liouville fractional derivative, we obtain a fractional stochastic differential equation driven by Brownian motion. This type of equations is used to represent financial processes with long memory, whose dynamics is described by the fractional derivative in the equation. These models are estimated via quasi-likelihood, namely via a continuoustime version of the Gauss-Whittle method. The models are applied to the exchange rates and the electricity prices of Part I with the aim of confirming their possible long-range dependence established by MF-DFA. The third part of the thesis provides an application of the results established in Parts I and II to characterise and classify financial markets. We will pay attention to the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), the American Stock Exchange (AMEX), the NASDAQ Stock Exchange (NASDAQ) and the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX). The parameters from MF-DFA and those of the short-memory AR(∞) -type models will be employed in this classification. We propose the Fisher discriminant algorithm to find a classifier in the two and three-dimensional spaces of data sets and then provide cross-validation to verify discriminant accuracies. This classification is useful for understanding and predicting the behaviour of different processes within the same market. The fourth part of the thesis investigates the heavy-tailed behaviour of financial processes which may also possess long memory. We consider fractional stochastic differential equations driven by stable noise to model financial processes such as electricity prices. The long memory of electricity prices is represented by a fractional derivative, while the stable noise input models their non-Gaussianity via the tails of their probability density. A method using the empirical densities and MF-DFA will be provided to estimate all the parameters of the model and simulate sample paths of the equation. The method is then applied to analyse daily spot prices for five states of Australia. Comparison with the results obtained from the R/S analysis, periodogram method and MF-DFA are provided. The results from fractional SDEs agree with those from MF-DFA, which are based on multifractal scaling, while those from the periodograms, which are based on the second order, seem to underestimate the long memory dynamics of the process. This highlights the need and usefulness of fractal methods in modelling non-Gaussian financial processes with long memory.

Are the financial services external complaints resolution schemes subject to judicial review?

In Australia seven schemes (apart from the Superannuation Complaints Tribunal) provide alternative dispute resolution services for complaints brought by consumers against financial services industry members. Recently the Supreme Court of New South Wales held that the decisions of one scheme were amenable to judicial review at the suit of a financial services provider member and the Supreme Court of Victoria has since taken a similar approach. This article examines the juristic basis for such a challenge and contends that judicial review is not available, either at common law or under statutory provisions. This is particularly the case since Financial Industry Complaints Service Ltd v Deakin Financial Services Pty Ltd (2006) 157 FCR 229; 60 ACSR 372 decided that the jurisdiction of a scheme is derived from a contract made with its members. The article goes on to contend that the schemes are required to give procedural fairness and that equitable remedies are available if that duty is breached.

Disclosing disclosure : new challenges for financial communicators

Stockmarket regulators in Australia, Canada and the United States have all issued recent challenges to listed companies on their disclosure practices, questioning in many cases what has been long standing practice. Financial public relations counsellors are constantly called up to advise on the communication consequences of difference disclosure strategies. This paper will explore the challenges, faced by a group of financial communicators within seven Australia listed companies, in setting and enacting disclosure polices for the organisations. It will identify hey issues involved in communicating within a regulated environment, as well as address the implications of new technology for future practice.

Financial incentives and advanced construction procurement systems

Construction clients often use financial incentives to encourage stakeholder motivation and commitment to voluntary higher-order project goals. Despite the increased use of financial incentives, there is little literature addressing means of optimizing outcomes. Using a case study methodology, the examination of a successful Australian construction project demonstrates the features of a positively geared procurement approach that promotes the effectiveness of financial incentives. The research results show that if the incentive system is perceived to be fair and is applied to reward exceptional performance, and not to manipulate, then contractors are more likely to be positively motivated.

Preliminary review of over-regulation in Australian financial services

This article examines a preliminary review and the limited evidence of over-regulation in Australian financial services. The 1997 Wallis Report and the CLERP 6 paper resulted in the amendments to Ch 7 of the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth) by the Financial Services Reform Act. Nearly a decade later the system based upon 'one-size fits all' dual track regime and a consistent licensing regime has greatly increased the costs of compliance. In the area of enforcement there has not been a dramatic change to the effective techniques applied by ASIC over other agencies such as APRA. In particular there are clear economic arguments, as well as international experiences which state that a single financial services regulator is more effective than the multi-layered approach adopted in Australia. Finally, in the superannuation area of financial services, which is worth A$800 billion there is unnecessary dual licensing and duplicated regulation with little evidence of any consumer-member benefit but at a much greater cost

Incorporating sustainability measures in life-cycle financial decision making for highway construction

Public awareness and the nature of highway construction works demand that sustainability measures are first on the development agenda. However, in the current economic climate, individual volition and enthusiasm for such high capital investments do not present as strong cases for decision making as the financial pictures of pursuing sustainability. Some stakeholders consider sustainability to be extra work that costs additional money. Though, stakeholders realised its importance in infrastructure development. They are keen to identify the available alternatives and financial implications on a lifecycle basis. Highway infrastructure development is a complex rocess which requires expertise and tools to evaluate investment options, such as environmentally sustainable features for road and highway development. Life-cycle cost analysis (LCCA) is a valuable approach for investment decision making for construction works. However, LCCA applications in highway development are still limited. Current models, for example focus on economic issues alone and do not deal with sustainability factors, which are more difficult to quantify and encapsulate in estimation modules. This paper reports the research which identifies sustainability related factors in highway construction projects, in quantitative and qualitative forms of a multi-criteria analysis. These factors are then incorporated into past and proven LCCA models to produce a new long term decision support model. The research via questionnaire, model building, analytical hierarchy processes (AHP) and case studies have identified, evaluated and then processed highway sustainability related cost elements. These cost elements need to be verified by industry before being integrated for further development of the model. Then the Australian construction industry will have a practical tool to evaluate investment decisions which provide an optimum balance between financial viability and sustainability deliverables.

Measuring performance of municipal real estate : softening the impact of financial crisis to local governments

Asset management in local government is an emerging discipline and over a decade has become a crucial aspect towards a more efficient and effective organisation. One crucial feature in the public asset management is performance measurement toward the public real estates. This measurement critically at the important component of public wealth and seeks to apply a standard of economic efficiency and effective organisational management especially in such global financial crisis condition. This paper aims to identify global economic crisis effect and proposes alternative solution for local governments to softening the impact of the crisis to the local governments organisation. This study found that the most suitable solution for local government to solve the global economic crisis in Indonesia is application of performance measurement in its asset management. Thus, it is important to develop performance measurement system in local government asset management process. This study provides suggestions from published documents and literatures. The paper also discusses the elements of public real estate performance measurement. The measurement of performance has become an essential component of the strategic thinking of assets owners and managers. Without having a formal measurement system for performance, it is difficult to plan, control and improve local government real estate management system. A close look at best practices in public sectors reveals that in most cases these practices were transferred from private sector reals estate management under the direction of real estate experts retained by government. One of the most significant advances in government property performance measurement resulted from recognition that the methodology used by private sector, non real estate corporations for managing their real property offered a valuable prototype for local governments. In general, there are two approaches most frequently used to measure performance of public organisations. Those are subjective and objective measures. Finally, findings from this study provides useful input for the local government policy makers, scholars and asset management practitioners to establish a public real estate performance measurement system toward more efficient and effective local governments in managing their assets as well as increasing public services quality in order to soften the impact of global financial crisis.

Compliance with international financial reporting standards (IFRS) and the value relevance of accounting information in emerging stock markets : evidence from Kuwait

Since the 1960s, the value relevance of accounting information has been an important topic in accounting research. The value relevance research provides evidence as to whether accounting numbers relate to corporate value in a predicted manner (Beaver, 2002). Such research is not only important for investors but also provides useful insights into accounting reporting effectiveness for standard setters and other users. Both the quality of accounting standards used and the effectiveness associated with implementing these standards are fundamental prerequisites for high value relevance (Hellstrom, 2006). However, while the literature comprehensively documents the value relevance of accounting information in developed markets, little attention has been given to emerging markets where the quality of accounting standards and their enforcement are questionable. Moreover, there is currently no known research that explores the association between level of compliance with International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) and the value relevance of accounting information. Motivated by the lack of research on the value relevance of accounting information in emerging markets and the unique institutional setting in Kuwait, this study has three objectives. First, it investigates the extent of compliance with IFRS with respect to firms listed on the Kuwait Stock Exchange (KSE). Second, it examines the value relevance of accounting information produced by KSE-listed firms over the 1995 to 2006 period. The third objective links the first two and explores the association between the level of compliance with IFRS and the value relevance of accounting information to market participants. Since it is among the first countries to adopt IFRS, Kuwait provides an ideal setting in which to explore these objectives. In addition, the Kuwaiti accounting environment provides an interesting regulatory context in which each KSE-listed firm is required to appoint at least two external auditors from separate auditing firms. Based on the research objectives, five research questions (RQs) are addressed. RQ1 and RQ2 aim to determine the extent to which KSE-listed firms comply with IFRS and factors contributing to variations in compliance levels. These factors include firm attributes (firm age, leverage, size, profitability, liquidity), the number of brand name (Big-4) auditing firms auditing a firm’s financial statements, and industry categorization. RQ3 and RQ4 address the value relevance of IFRS-based financial statements to investors. RQ5 addresses whether the level of compliance with IFRS contributes to the value relevance of accounting information provided to investors. Based on the potential improvement in value relevance from adopting and complying with IFRS, it is predicted that the higher the level of compliance with IFRS, the greater the value relevance of book values and earnings. The research design of the study consists of two parts. First, in accordance with prior disclosure research, the level of compliance with mandatory IFRS is examined using a disclosure index. Second, the value relevance of financial statement information, specifically, earnings and book value, is examined empirically using two valuation models: price and returns models. The combined empirical evidence that results from the application of both models provides comprehensive insights into value relevance of accounting information in an emerging market setting. Consistent with expectations, the results show the average level of compliance with IFRS mandatory disclosures for all KSE-listed firms in 2006 was 72.6 percent; thus, indicating KSE-listed firms generally did not fully comply with all requirements. Significant variations in the extent of compliance are observed among firms and across accounting standards. As predicted, older, highly leveraged, larger, and profitable KSE-listed firms are more likely to comply with IFRS required disclosures. Interestingly, significant differences in the level of compliance are observed across the three possible auditor combinations of two Big-4, two non-Big 4, and mixed audit firm types. The results for the price and returns models provide evidence that earnings and book values are significant factors in the valuation of KSE-listed firms during the 1995 to 2006 period. However, the results show that the value relevance of earnings and book values decreased significantly during that period, suggesting that investors rely less on financial statements, possibly due to the increase in the available non-financial statement sources. Notwithstanding this decline, a significant association is observed between the level of compliance with IFRS and the value relevance of earnings and book value to KSE investors. The findings make several important contributions. First, they raise concerns about the effectiveness of the regulatory body that oversees compliance with IFRS in Kuwait. Second, they challenge the effectiveness of the two-auditor requirement in promoting compliance with regulations as well as the associated cost-benefit of this requirement for firms. Third, they provide the first known empirical evidence linking the level of IFRS compliance with the value relevance of financial statement information. Finally, the findings are relevant for standard setters and for their current review of KSE regulations. In particular, they highlight the importance of establishing and maintaining adequate monitoring and enforcement mechanisms to ensure compliance with accounting standards. In addition, the finding that stricter compliance with IFRS improves the value relevance of accounting information highlights the importance of full compliance with IFRS and not just mere adoption.

Rethinking financial literacy in the aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis

Systemic risks and other factors that contributed to the global financial crisis have highlighted the need to reconsider the scope and nature of financial literacy initiatives and programs. In this article, we argue the case for rethinking financial literacy and the need for integrated solutions that explicitly incorporate solutions to behavioural shortcomings exhibited by individuals in their financial decision-making. While recognising the need to consider behavioural biases in individuals’ financial decisions, to date regulatory responses have largely ignored those biases in their proposed education and other strategies designed to address poor financial literacy and improve financial disclosure that, in turn, will improve financial decision-making.

Client recommendations for financial incentives on construction projects

Purpose: To provide recommendations for construction clients who design and implement financial incentive mechanisms (FIMs) on projects. ---------- Methodology: Four large Australian building projects commissioned by government clients under managing contractor contracts and completed between 2001 and 2005 were examined to explore the ‘drivers’ that promoted motivation toward financial incentive goals. The results were triangulated across data sources, projects and stakeholder types. ---------- Findings: FIM design should incorporate: 1. flexibility to modify goals and measurement procedures over time, 2. multiple goals covering different project areas, 3. distribution of rewards across all the key organizations contributing to team performance (e.g. potentially not just the contractor, but the subcontractors and consultants) and a reward amount sufficient to be valued by potential recipients. FIM benefits are maximized through the following complementary procurement initiatives: 4. equitable contract risk allocation, 5. early contractor involvement in design, 6. value-driven tender selection, 7. relationship workshops, and 8. future work opportunities.---------- Research Limitations: This paper provides practical recommendations to industry and hence does not emphasize theoretical aspects.---------- Practical Implications: The uptake of these recommendations is likely to increase the impact of FIMs on motivation and improve project and industry outcomes. Although the study focuses on government clients of building projects, all the recommendations would seem to apply equally to private-sector clients and to non-building projects.---------- Originality: In order to improve motivation and reward high performance, clients are increasingly using FIM in their construction contracts. Despite the rising use of financial incentives, there is a lack of comprehensive construction-specific knowledge available to help clients maximize outcomes. The study addresses this gap in the literature.

Motivation toward financial incentive goals on construction projects

Construction industry observers tout the use of financial incentives as promoters of motivation and commitment on projects. Yet, little empirical evidence exists concerning their effectiveness. What are the drivers of motivation on construction projects? The reasons that construction project participants are motivated to pursue voluntary incentive goals are examined through four Australian case studies. The results demonstrate the critical role played by project relationships and equitable contract conditions in promoting the effectiveness of financial incentives. In the context of a construction project, this study finds financial incentives to be less important to motivation and performance than relationship enhancement initiatives. This finding is unexpected and has implications for the design of project procurement strategies. These results suggest if project clients ignore the importance of relationship quality between participants, the impact of any financial incentive will be compromised.

Strategic entrepreneurship in New Zealand's state-owned enterprises : underlying elements and financial implications

The concept of strategic entrepreneurship has received increased attention over the past ten yeras. Viewed as the intersection of entrepreneurship and strategy this field of research is populated by conceptual studies which focus mainly on the nature and perceived benefits of strategic entrepreneurship. Similarly the study of entrepreneurship in a public sector context has gained increasing support in recent years but also remains underexplored. To address these gaps this thesis considers : what are the underlying elements and financial implications of strategic entrepreneurship in New Zealand's state-owned enterprises, New Zealand's SOE sector comprising 17 government-owned,commercially focused organisations, is considered to be a prime subject for this research. Well known for their implementation of new public management, many New Zealand SOEs have also been publicly recognised as both innovative and entrepreneurial. The research question is addressed by first developing a preliminary framework of strategic entrepreneurship from literature on entrepreneurhsip and strategy. The framework is then examined in the context of case studies on activity.