Semi-parametric forecasting of spikes in electricity prices

The occurrence of extreme movements in the spot price of electricity represents a significant source of risk to retailers. A range of approaches have been considered with respect to modelling electricity prices; these models, however, have relied on time-series approaches, which typically use restrictive decay schemes placing greater weight on more recent observations. This study develops an alternative, semi-parametric method for forecasting, which uses state-dependent weights derived from a kernel function. The forecasts that are obtained using this method are accurate and therefore potentially useful to electricity retailers in terms of risk management.

Annual miles drive used car prices

This paper investigates whether the net benefits from owning a vehicle, proxied by annual miles driven, explain the price declines observed over a vehicle's life. We first model the household decision on how much to drive each of its vehicles. Then we empirically establish that variation in household annual miles across brands explains observed price declines. Furthermore, the effect of vehicle age on annual miles decisions (and consequently on market value) depends on household characteristics and the composition of the vehicle stock owned.

Measuring the preference for dwelling characteristics of Melbourne : railway stations and house prices

The relationship between public transportation and home values has proven to be complex, with studies providing divergent findings. Using Victorian Valuer General Data for 2009, this paper applies a hedonic pricing approach to the Melbourne metropolitan housing market in order to estimate the impacts of proximity to a train station on residential property prices. The findings reveal a negative impact on dwelling price for those properties within 125 metres from a train station and a positive relationship between dwelling price and proximity for properties more than 125 metres away.

Does the price of oil interact with clean energy prices in the stock market?

In this paper, we analyze the relationships among oil prices, clean energy stock prices, and technology stock prices, endogenously controlling for structural changes in the market. To this end, we apply Markov-switching vector autoregressive models to the economic system consisting of oil prices, clean energy and technology stock prices, and interest rates. The results indicate that there was a structural change in late 2007, a period in which there was a significant increase in the price of oil. In contrast to the previous studies, we find a positive relationship between oil prices and clean energy prices after structural breaks. There also appears to be a similarity in terms of the market response to both clean energy stock prices and technology stock prices. © 2013 Elsevier B.V.

Stock prices of clean energy firms, oil and carbon markets : a vector autoregressive analysis

Recent discussions of energy security and climate change have attracted significant attention to clean energy. We hypothesize that rising prices of conventional energy and/or placement of a price on carbon emissions would encourage investments in clean energy firms. The data from three clean energy indices show that oil prices and technology stock prices separately affect the stock prices of clean energy firms. However, the data fail to demonstrate a significant relationship between carbon prices and the stock prices of the firms.

The impact of infrastructure charges on house prices in Australia

Developer paid fees or charges are a commonly used mechanism for local governments to pay for new infrastructure. However, property developers claim that these costs are merely passed on to home buyers, with adverse effects to housing affordability. Despite numerous government reports and many years of industry advocacy, there remains no empirical evidence in Australia to confirm or quantify this passing on effect to home buyers. Hence there remains no data from which governments can base policy decision on, and the debate continues. This paper examines the question of the impact of infrastructure charges on housing affordability in Australia. It presents the findings of a hedonic house price model that provides the first empirical evidence that infrastructure charges do increase house prices in Australia. This research is consistent with international findings, that support the proposition that developer paid infrastructure charges are passed on to home buyers and are a significant contributor to increasing house prices and reduced housing affordability.

Co-movements in commodity prices : a note based on network analysis

This article analyses co-movements in a wide group of commodity prices during the time period 1992–2010. Our methodological approach is based on the correlation matrix and the networks inside. Through this approach we are able to summarize global interaction and interdependence, capturing the existing heterogeneity in the degrees of synchronization between commodity prices. Our results produce two main findings: (a) we do not observe a persistent increase in the degree of co-movement of the commodity prices in our time sample, however from mid-2008 to the end of 2009 co-movements almost doubled when compared with the average correlation; (b) we observe three groups of commodities which have exhibited similar price dynamics (metals, oil and grains, and oilseeds) and which have increased their degree of co-movement during the sampled period.

'Bacon - hold the eggs' for uncontrollable nose bleeds

Almost everyone experiences a nosebleed at some time during their lives. In many cases, these nosebleeds are self-limiting, resolve without medical attention, and tend to be nothing more than a minor nuisance. However, in some instances they can be life threatening and urgent medical attention is required. One of these instances is when people who have Glanzmann's thrombasthenia (GT) experience a nosebleed...

Higher fuel prices are associated with lower air pollution levels

Air pollution is a persistent problem in urban areas, and traffic emissions are a major cause of poor air quality. Policies to curb pollution levels often involve raising the price of using private vehicles, for example, congestion charges. We were interested in whether higher fuel prices were associated with decreased air pollution levels. We examined an association between diesel and petrol prices and four traffic-related pollutants in Brisbane from 2010 to 2013. We used a regression model and examined pollution levels up to 16 days after the price change. Higher diesel prices were associated with statistically significant short-term reductions in carbon monoxide and nitrogen oxides. Changes in petrol prices had no impact on air pollution. Raising diesel taxes in Australia could be justified as a public health measure. As raising taxes is politically unpopular, an alternative political approach would be to remove schemes that put a downward pressure on fuel prices, such as industry subsidies and shopping vouchers that give fuel discounts.

Bad Eggs

Synopsis and review of the Australian feature film Bad Eggs, directed by Tony Martin.

Infrastructure charges and residential land prices in Brisbane, Australia

This paper examines the question of whether the imposition of developer infrastructure charges on housing developers affects the price of residential land. Developer paid fees or charges are a commonly used mechanism for local governments to fund new infrastructure as a “user pays” method of funding new urban infrastructure. Some argue these costs are passed back to the original land owner by way of lower land prices. However, property developers claim these charges are added on to new land prices, with flow on negative impact to housing affordability. This paper presents the findings of a hedonic land price model that provides the first empirical evidence that infrastructure charges do increase residential land prices in Brisbane, Australia. This research is consistent with international findings and supports the proposition that developer paid infrastructure charges are over-passed to home buyers and are a significant contributor to reduced housing affordability.

The effect of ground leases on house prices in Helsinki

One imperfection in housing markets is imperfect knowledge about legal interests such as ground leases. Both actual reduced legal interest as well as uncertainty surrounding rights and future lease payments for houses constructed on leased land may affect prices relative to houses built on freehold land. We use regression analysis of sales prices of condominium transactions in Helsinki to examine the effect ground leases have on house prices. We find that prices on condominiums constructed on leased lots are discounted at least 5 %, on average. In addition, we see that the announcement of potentially large increases in base rents upon renewal contributes to the discount.

Multiple roles of transfer prices: One vs. two books

This paper investigates multiple roles of transfer prices for shipments of goods and services between entities of a multinational enterprise. At the center is the role of transfer pricing (TP) in tax manipulation, but other roles having to do with internal operations or strategic delegation, etc. are also considered. The interesting question is to what extent and how the different roles of TPs interfere with each other. The answer depends on whether companies use one or two books, i.e. whether they (can) apply different TPs for different purposes. We illustrate, in a stylized model, the competing aims of tax manipulation and strategic delegation. Finally, we briefly look at selected reform proposals, concluding that either TP problems are not addressed, or else new distortions will be introduced instead.