Quantifying uncertainty in parameter estimates for stochastic models of collective cell spreading using approximate Bayesian computation

Wound healing and tumour growth involve collective cell spreading, which is driven by individual motility and proliferation events within a population of cells. Mathematical models are often used to interpret experimental data and to estimate the parameters so that predictions can be made. Existing methods for parameter estimation typically assume that these parameters are constants and often ignore any uncertainty in the estimated values. We use approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) to estimate the cell diffusivity, D, and the cell proliferation rate, λ, from a discrete model of collective cell spreading, and we quantify the uncertainty associated with these estimates using Bayesian inference. We use a detailed experimental data set describing the collective cell spreading of 3T3 fibroblast cells. The ABC analysis is conducted for different combinations of initial cell densities and experimental times in two separate scenarios: (i) where collective cell spreading is driven by cell motility alone, and (ii) where collective cell spreading is driven by combined cell motility and cell proliferation. We find that D can be estimated precisely, with a small coefficient of variation (CV) of 2–6%. Our results indicate that D appears to depend on the experimental time, which is a feature that has been previously overlooked. Assuming that the values of D are the same in both experimental scenarios, we use the information about D from the first experimental scenario to obtain reasonably precise estimates of λ, with a CV between 4 and 12%. Our estimates of D and λ are consistent with previously reported values; however, our method is based on a straightforward measurement of the position of the leading edge whereas previous approaches have involved expensive cell counting techniques. Additional insights gained using a fully Bayesian approach justify the computational cost, especially since it allows us to accommodate information from different experiments in a principled way.

Analysis of passenger group behaviour and its impact on passenger flow using an agent-based model

Group interaction within crowds is a common phenomenon and has great influence on pedestrian behaviour. This paper investigates the impact of passenger group dynamics using an agent-based simulation method for the outbound passenger process at airports. Unlike most passenger-flow models that treat passengers as individual agents, the proposed model additionally incorporates their group dynamics as well. The simulation compares passenger behaviour at airport processes and discretionary services under different group formations. Results from experiments (both qualitative and quantitative) show that incorporating group attributes, in particular, the interactions with fellow travellers and wavers can have significant influence on passengers activity preference as well as the performance and utilisation of services in airport terminals. The model also provides a convenient way to investigate the effectiveness of airport space design and service allocations, which can contribute to positive passenger experiences. The model was created using AnyLogic software and its parameters were initialised using recent research data published in the literature.

Impact of mobility and topology on information diffusion in MANETs

In some delay-tolerant communication systems such as vehicular ad-hoc networks, information flow can be represented as an infectious process, where each entity having already received the information will try to share it with its neighbours. The random walk and random waypoint models are popular analysis tools for these epidemic broadcasts, and represent two types of random mobility. In this paper, we introduce a simulation framework investigating the impact of a gradual increase of bias in path selection (i.e. reduction of randomness), when moving from the former to the latter. Randomness in path selection can significantly alter the system performances, in both regular and irregular network structures. The implications of these results for real systems are discussed in details.

Collective futures: How projections about the future of society are related to actions and attitudes supporting social change

We identified the active ingredients in people’s visions of society’s future (“collective futures”) that could drive political behavior in the present. In eight studies (N = 595), people imagined society in 2050 where climate change was mitigated (Study 1), abortion laws relaxed (Study 2), marijuana legalized (Study 3), or the power of different religious groups had increased (Studies 4-8). Participants rated how this future society would differ from today in terms of societal-level dysfunction and development (e.g., crime, inequality, education, technology), people’s character (warmth, competence, morality), and their values (e.g., conservation, self-transcendence). These measures were related to present-day attitudes/intentions that would promote/prevent this future (e.g., act on climate change, vote for a Muslim politician). A projection about benevolence in society (i.e., warmth/morality of people’s character) was the only dimension consistently and uniquely associated with present-day attitudes and intentions across contexts. Implications for social change theories, political communication, and policy design are discussed.

Achieving intention-centric BPM through automated planning

As a result of the more distributed nature of organisations and the inherently increasing complexity of their business processes, a significant effort is required for the specification and verification of those processes. The composition of the activities into a business process that accomplishes a specific organisational goal has primarily been a manual task. Automated planning is a branch of artificial intelligence (AI) in which activities are selected and organised by anticipating their expected outcomes with the aim of achieving some goal. As such, automated planning would seem to be a natural fit to the BPM domain to automate the specification of control flow. A number of attempts have been made to apply automated planning to the business process and service composition domain in different stages of the BPM lifecycle. However, a unified adoption of these techniques throughout the BPM lifecycle is missing. As such, we propose a new intention-centric BPM paradigm, which aims on minimising the specification effort by exploiting automated planning techniques to achieve a pre-stated goal. This paper provides a vision on the future possibilities of enhancing BPM using automated planning. A research agenda is presented, which provides an overview of the opportunities and challenges for the exploitation of automated planning in BPM.

An efficient DSE using conditional multivariate complex Gaussian distribution

This paper presents an efficient noniterative method for distribution state estimation using conditional multivariate complex Gaussian distribution (CMCGD). In the proposed method, the mean and standard deviation (SD) of the state variables is obtained in one step considering load uncertainties, measurement errors, and load correlations. In this method, first the bus voltages, branch currents, and injection currents are represented by MCGD using direct load flow and a linear transformation. Then, the mean and SD of bus voltages, or other states, are calculated using CMCGD and estimation of variance method. The mean and SD of pseudo measurements, as well as spatial correlations between pseudo measurements, are modeled based on the historical data for different levels of load duration curve. The proposed method can handle load uncertainties without using time-consuming approaches such as Monte Carlo. Simulation results of two case studies, six-bus, and a realistic 747-bus distribution network show the effectiveness of the proposed method in terms of speed, accuracy, and quality against the conventional approach.

Local Commons: A visual approach to collective city making through situated community engagement

Due to the numerous possibilities of voicing concerns and the flood of data we are exposed to, local issues are sometimes at risk of being overlooked. This study explores Local Commons, a design intervention in public space that combines situated digital and tangible media in order to engage communities in contributing and debating different perspectives on a given local issue. The intervention invited the community to submit images of their perspectives on the issue, which were displayed on a public screen. Via tangible buttons in front of the screen, community members then agree or disagree on the displayed perspectives, creating a space for deliberation. In a user study, we were specifically interested in testing three aspects of our intervention, which are discussed in this paper: The difference that situatedness, visual content, and tangible interaction can make to urban community engagement.

Numerical treatment of a two-dimensional variable-order fractional nonlinear reaction-diffusion model

A two-dimensional variable-order fractional nonlinear reaction-diffusion model is considered. A second-order spatial accurate semi-implicit alternating direction method for a two-dimensional variable-order fractional nonlinear reaction-diffusion model is proposed. Stability and convergence of the semi-implicit alternating direct method are established. Finally, some numerical examples are given to support our theoretical analysis. These numerical techniques can be used to simulate a two-dimensional variable order fractional FitzHugh-Nagumo model in a rectangular domain. This type of model can be used to describe how electrical currents flow through the heart, controlling its contractions, and are used to ascertain the effects of certain drugs designed to treat arrhythmia.

The dual nature of information systems in enabling a new wave of hardware ventures: Towards a theory

Hardware ventures are emerging entrepreneurial firms that create new market offerings based on development of digital devices. These ventures are important elements in the global economy but have not yet received much attention in the literature. Our interest in examining hardware ventures is specifically in the role that information system (IS) resources play in enabling them. We ask how the role of IS resources for hardware ventures can be conceptualized and develop a framework for assessment. Our framework builds on the distinction of operand and operant resources and distinguishes between two key lifecycle stages of hardware ventures: start-up and growth. We show how this framework can be used to discuss the role, nature, and use of IS for hardware ventures and outline empirical research strategies that flow from it. Our work contributes to broadening and enriching the IS field by drawing attention to its role in significant and novel phenomena.

Gamifying collective intelligence for the common good

The rise of the mobile internet enables the creation of applications that provide new and easier ways for people to organise themselves, raise issues, take action and interact with their city. At the same time, society faces new problems that can only be solved when citizens work together. Nevertheless, a lack of motivation or knowledge often prevents many citizens from regularly contributing to the common good. In this position paper, we present DoGood – a mobile app – as a socio-technological system that aims at supporting the collective intelligence of citizens in their pursuit of civic engagement and civic collaboratories. Our study asks to what extent gamification can motivate users to “do good” deeds. The DoGood app uses gamified elements to encourage citizens to submit and promote their civic activities as well as to join the activities of others. Gamification is sometimes criticised for simply adding a limited number of game elements, such as leaderboards, on top of an existing experience with the hope of increasing motivation. However, in the case of the DoGood app, the process of game design was an integral part of the development, and the gamified elements target the user’s intrinsic motivations instead of providing them with an external reward. In this paper, we present design elements of the app and discuss their potential to support collective intelligence for the common good.

Assessment of dynamic susceptibility contrast cerebral blood flow response to amphetamine challenge: A human pharmacological magnetic resonance imaging study at 1.5 and 4 T

Pharmacological MRI (phMRI) techniques can be used to monitor the neurophysiological effects of central nervous system (CNS) active drugs. In this study, we investigated whether dynamic susceptibility contrast (DSC) perfusion imaging employing the use of superparamagnetic iron oxide nanoparticles (Resovist) could be used to measure hemodynamic response to d-amphetamine challenge in human subjects at both 1.5 and 4 T. Significant changes in cerebral blood flow (CBF) were found in focal regions associated with the nigrostriatal circuit and mesolimbic and mesocortical dopaminergic pathways. More significant CBF responses were found at higher field strength, mainly within striatal structures. The results from this study indicate that DSC perfusion imaging using Resovist can be used to assess the efficacy of CNS-active drugs and may play a role in the development of novel psychiatric therapies at the preclinical level. © 2005 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Robotic detection and tracking of Crown-Of-Thorns starfish

This paper presents a novel vision-based underwater robotic system for the identification and control of Crown-Of-Thorns starfish (COTS) in coral reef environments. COTS have been identified as one of the most significant threats to Australia's Great Barrier Reef. These starfish literally eat coral, impacting large areas of reef and the marine ecosystem that depends on it. Evidence has suggested that land-based nutrient runoff has accelerated recent outbreaks of COTS requiring extensive use of divers to manually inject biological agents into the starfish in an attempt to control population numbers. Facilitating this control program using robotics is the goal of our research. In this paper we introduce a vision-based COTS detection and tracking system based on a Random Forest Classifier (RFC) trained on images from underwater footage. To track COTS with a moving camera, we embed the RFC in a particle filter detector and tracker where the predicted class probability of the RFC is used as an observation probability to weight the particles, and we use a sparse optical flow estimation for the prediction step of the filter. The system is experimentally evaluated in a realistic laboratory setup using a robotic arm that moves a camera at different speeds and heights over a range of real-size images of COTS in a reef environment.

Influence of pipe length and flow rate on nano-particle deposition in laminar circular pipe flows

The Lagrangian particle tracking provides an effective method for simulating the deposition of nano- particles as well as micro-particles as it accounts for the particle inertia effect as well as the Brownian excitation. However, using the Lagrangian approach for simulating ultrafine particles has been limited due to computational cost and numerical difficulties. The aim of this paper is to study the deposition of nano-particles in cylindrical tubes under laminar condition using the Lagrangian particle tracking method. The commercial Fluent software is used to simulate the fluid flow in the pipes and to study the deposition and dispersion of nano-particles. Different particle diameters as well as different pipe lengths and flow rates are examined. The results show good agreement between the calculated deposition efficiency and different analytic correlations in the literature. Furthermore, for the nano-particles with higher diameters and when the effect of inertia has a higher importance, the calculated deposition efficiency by the Lagrangian method is less than the analytic correlations based on Eulerian method due to statistical error or the inertia effect.

Applying HYDRUS to flow in a sodic clay soil with solution composition–dependent hydraulic conductivity

Management of sodic soils under irrigation often requires application of chemical ameliorants to improve permeability combined with leaching of excess salts. Modeling irrigation, soil treatments, and leaching in these sodic soils requires a model that can adequately represent the physical and chemical changes in the soil associated with the amelioration process. While there are a number of models that simulate reactive solute transport, UNSATCHEM and HYDRUS-1D are currently the only models that also include an ability to simulate the impacts of soil chemistry on hydraulic conductivity. Previous researchers have successfully applied these models to simulate amelioration experiments on a sodic loam soil. To further gauge their applicability, we extended the previous work by comparing HYDRUS simulations of sodic soil amelioration with the results from recently published laboratory experiments on a more reactive, repacked sodic clay soil. The general trends observed in the laboratory experiments were able to be simulated using HYDRUS. Differences between measured and simulated results were attributed to the limited flexibility of the function that represents chemistry-dependent hydraulic conductivity in HYDRUS. While improvements in the function could be made, the present work indicates that HYDRUS-UNSATCHEM captures the key changes in soil hydraulic properties that occur during sodic clay soil amelioration and thus extends the findings of previous researchers studying sodic loams.

Improving monocular SLAM with altimeter hints for fixed-wing aircraft navigation and emergency landing

This paper presents a visual SLAM method for temporary satellite dropout navigation, here applied on fixed- wing aircraft. It is designed for flight altitudes beyond typical stereo ranges, but within the range of distance measurement sensors. The proposed visual SLAM method consists of a common localization step with monocular camera resectioning, and a mapping step which incorporates radar altimeter data for absolute scale estimation. With that, there will be no scale drift of the map and the estimated flight path. The method does not require simplifications like known landmarks and it is thus suitable for unknown and nearly arbitrary terrain. The method is tested with sensor datasets from a manned Cessna 172 aircraft. With 5% absolute scale error from radar measurements causing approximately 2-6% accumulation error over the flown distance, stable positioning is achieved over several minutes of flight time. The main limitations are flight altitudes above the radar range of 750 m where the monocular method will suffer from scale drift, and, depending on the flight speed, flights below 50 m where image processing gets difficult with a downwards-looking camera due to the high optical flow rates and the low image overlap.