The impact of nonlinear exposure risk relationships on seasonal time series data: modelling danish neonatal birth anthropometric data

Background Birth weight and length have seasonal fluctuations. Previous analyses of birth weight by latitude effects identified seemingly contradictory results, showing both 6 and 12 monthly periodicities in weight. The aims of this paper are twofold: (a) to explore seasonal patterns in a large, Danish Medical Birth Register, and (b) to explore models based on seasonal exposures and a non-linear exposure-risk relationship. Methods Birth weight and birth lengths on over 1.5 million Danish singleton, live births were examined for seasonality. We modelled seasonal patterns based on linear, U- and J-shaped exposure-risk relationships. We then added an extra layer of complexity by modelling weighted population-based exposure patterns. Results The Danish data showed clear seasonal fluctuations for both birth weight and birth length. A bimodal model best fits the data, however the amplitude of the 6 and 12 month peaks changed over time. In the modelling exercises, U- and J-shaped exposure-risk relationships generate time series with both 6 and 12 month periodicities. Changing the weightings of the population exposure risks result in unexpected properties. A J-shaped exposure-risk relationship with a diminishing population exposure over time fitted the observed seasonal pattern in the Danish birth weight data. Conclusion In keeping with many other studies, Danish birth anthropometric data show complex and shifting seasonal patterns. We speculate that annual periodicities with non-linear exposure-risk models may underlie these findings. Understanding the nature of seasonal fluctuations can help generate candidate exposures.

Comparison of intranasal and transcutaneous immunization for induction of protective immunity against chlamydia muridarum respiratory tract infection

Chlamydia pneumoniae causes a range of respiratory infections including bronchitis, pharyngitis and pneumonia. Infection has also been implicated in exacerbation/initiation of asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and may play a role in atherosclerosis and Alzheimer's disease. We have used a mouse model of Chlamydia respiratory infection to determine the effectiveness of intranasal (IN) and transcutaneous immunization (TCI) to prevent Chlamydia lung infection. Female BALB/c mice were immunized with chlamydial major outer membrane protein (MOMP) mixed with cholera toxin and CpG oligodeoxynucleotide adjuvants by either the IN or TCI routes. Serum and bronchoalveolar lavage (BAL) were collected for antibody analysis. Mononuclear cells from lung-draining lymph nodes were stimulated in vitro with MOMP and cytokine mRNA production determined by real time PCR. Animals were challenged with live Chlamydia and weighed daily following challenge. At day 10 (the peak of infection) animals were sacrificed and the numbers of recoverable Chlamydia in lungs determined by real time PCR. MOMP-specific antibody-secreting cells in lung tissues were also determined at day 10 post-infection. Both IN and TCI protected animals against weight loss compared to non-immunized controls with both immunized groups gaining weight by day 10-post challenge while controls had lost 6% of body weight. Both immunization protocols induced MOMP-specific IgG in serum and BAL while only IN immunization induced MOMP-specific IgA in BAL. Both immunization routes resulted in high numbers of MOMP-specific antibody-secreting cells in lung tissues (IN > TCI). Following in vitro re-stimulation of lung-draining lymph node cells with MOMP; IFNγ mRNA increased 20-fold in cells from IN immunized animals (compared to non-immunized controls) while IFNγ levels increased 6- to 7-fold in TCI animals. Ten days post challenge non-immunized animals had >7000 IFU in their lungs, IN immunized animals <50 IFU and TCI immunized animals <1500 IFU. Thus, both intranasal and transcutaneous immunization protected mice against respiratory challenge with Chlamydia. The best protection was obtained following IN immunization and correlated with IFNγ production by mononuclear cells in lung-draining LN and MOMP-specific IgA in BAL.

A large change in temperature between neighbouring days increases the risk of mortality

Background: Previous studies have found high temperatures increase the risk of mortality in summer. However, little is known about whether a sharp decrease or increase in temperature between neighbouring days has any effect on mortality. Method: Poisson regression models were used to estimate the association between temperature change and mortality in summer in Brisbane, Australia during 1996–2004 and Los Angeles, United States during 1987–2000. The temperature change was calculated as the current day’s mean temperature minus the previous day’s mean. Results: In Brisbane, a drop of more than 3 °C in temperature between days was associated with relative risks (RRs) of 1.157 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.024, 1.307) for total non external mortality (NEM), 1.186 (95%CI: 1.002, 1.405) for NEM in females, and 1.442 (95%CI: 1.099, 1.892) for people aged 65–74 years. An increase of more than 3 °C was associated with RRs of 1.353 (95%CI: 1.033, 1.772) for cardiovascular mortality and 1.667 (95%CI: 1.146, 2.425) for people aged < 65 years. In Los Angeles, only a drop of more than 3 °C was significantly associated with RRs of 1.133 (95%CI: 1.053, 1.219) for total NEM, 1.252 (95%CI: 1.131, 1.386) for cardiovascular mortality, and 1.254 (95%CI: 1.135, 1.385) for people aged ≥75 years. In both cities, there were joint effects of temperature change and mean temperature on NEM. Conclusion : A significant change in temperature of more than 3 °C, whether positive or negative, has an adverse impact on mortality even after controlling for the current temperature.

Early intervention music therapy : reporting on a 3-year project to address needs with at-risk families

Sing & Grow is an early intervention music therapy project presented to families with additional needs, or those at risk of experiencing disadvantage due to social and/or economic circumstances that may impact on their parenting experiences. The aim of the project is to provide short term music therapy programs to families in communities where access to such services may be limited. The program is strengths-based and focuses on building upon a parent’s capacity to relate to and respond to their child’s emotional and developmental needs.

Risk of second cancer after lymphohematopoietic neoplasm

People living with lymphohematopoietic neoplasms (LHNs) are known to have increased risks of second cancer; however, the incidence of second cancers after LHNs has not been studied extensively in Australia. The Australian Cancer Database was used to analyze site-specific risk of second primary cancer after LHNs in 127,707 patients diagnosed between 1983 and 2005. Standardized incidence ratios (SIRs) were calculated using population rates. Overall, patients with an LHN had nearly twice the risk of developing a second cancer compared to the Australian population. Among 40,321 patients with non-Hodgkin's lymphoma (NHL), there was over a fourfold significant increase in melanoma, Kaposi sarcoma, cancer of the lip, connective tissue and peripheral nerves, eye, thyroid, Hodgkin's disease (HD) and myeloid leukemia. Among 6,396 patients with HD, there was over a fourfold significant increase in melanoma, Kaposi sarcoma, cancer of the lip, oral cavity and pharynx, female breast, uterine cervix, testis, thyroid, NHL and myeloid leukemia. Among the 33,025 patients with lymphoid and myeloid leukemia, significant excess were seen for cancers of the lip, eye, connective tissue and peripheral nerves, NHL and HD. Among the 13,856 patients with plasma cell tumors, there was over fourfold significant increase for melanoma, cancer of the connective tissue and peripheral nerves and myeloid leukemia. Our findings provide evidence of an increased risk of cancer, particularly ultraviolet radiation- and immunosuppression-related cancers, after an LHN in Australia. Copyright © 2010 UICC.