Towards increased road safety : real-time decision making for driverless city vehicles

This work elaborates on the topic of decision making for driverless city vehicles, particularly focusing on the aspects on how to develop a reliable approach which meets the requirements of safe city traffic. Decision making in this context refers to the problem of identifying the most appropriate driving maneuver to be performed in a given traffic situation. The overall decision making problem is decomposed into two consecutive stages. The first stage is safety-crucial, representing the decision regarding the set of feasible driving maneuvers. The second stage represents the decision regarding the most appropriate driving maneuver from the set of feasible ones. The developed decision making approach has been implemented in C++ and initially tested in a 3D simulation environment and, thereafter, in real-world experiments. The real-world experiments also included the integration of wireless communication between vehicles.

The impact of a congestion charging exemption on the demand for new low‐emission vehicles

Numerous initiatives have been employed around the world in order to address rising greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions originating from the transport sector. These measures include: travel demand management (congestion‐charging), increased fuel taxes, alternative fuel subsidies and low‐emission vehicle (LEV) rebates. Incentivizing the purchase of LEVs has been one of the more prevalent approaches in attempting to tackle this global issue. LEVs, whilst having the advantage of lower emissions and, in some cases, more efficient fuel consumption, also bring the downsides of increased purchase cost, reduced convenience of vehicle fuelling, and operational uncertainty. To stimulate demand in the face of these challenges, various incentive‐based policies, such as toll exemptions, have been used by national and local governments to encourage the purchase of these types of vehicles. In order to address rising GHG emissions in Stockholm, and in line with the Swedish Government’s ambition to operate a fossil free fleet by 2030, a number of policies were implemented targeting the transport sector. Foremost amongst these was the combination of a congestion charge – initiated to discourage emissions‐intensive travel – and an exemption from this charge for some LEVs, established to encourage a transition towards a ‘green’ vehicle fleet. Although both policies shared the aim of reducing GHG emissions, the exemption for LEVs carried the risk of diminishing the effectiveness of the congestion charging scheme. As the number of vehicle owners choosing to transition to an eligible LEV increased, the congestion‐reduction effectiveness of the charging scheme weakened. In fact, policy makers quickly recognized this potential issue and consequently phased out the LEV exemption less than 18 months after its introduction (1). Several studies have investigated the demand for LEVs through stated‐preference (SP) surveys across multiple countries, including: Denmark (2), Germany (3, 4), UK (5), Canada (6), USA (7, 8) and Australia (9). Although each of these studies differed in approach, all involved SP surveys where differing characteristics between various types of vehicles, including LEVs, were presented to respondents and these respondents in turn made hypothetical decisions about which vehicle they would be most likely to purchase. Although these studies revealed a number of interesting findings in regards to the potential demand for LEVs, they relied on SP data. In contrast, this paper employs an approach where LEV choice is modelled by taking a retrospective view and by using revealed preference (RP) data. By examining the revealed preferences of vehicle owners in Stockholm, this study overcomes one of the principal limitations of SP data, namely that stated preferences may not in fact reflect individuals’ actual choices, such as when cost, time, and inconvenience factors are real rather than hypothetical. This paper’s RP approach involves modelling the characteristics of individuals who purchased new LEVs, whilst estimating the effect of the congestion charging exemption upon choice probabilities and subsequent aggregate demand. The paper contributes to the current literature by examining the effectiveness of a toll exemption under revealed preference conditions, and by assessing the total effect of the policy based on key indicators for policy makers, including: vehicle owner home location, commuting patterns, number of children, age, gender and income. Extended Abstract Submission for Kuhmo Nectar Conference 2014 2 The two main research questions motivating this study were:  Which individuals chose to purchase a new LEV in Stockholm in 2008?; and,  How did the congestion charging exemption affect the aggregate demand for new LEVs in Stockholm in 2008? In order to answer these research questions the analysis was split into two stages. Firstly, a multinomial logit (MNL) model was used to identify which demographic characteristics were most significantly related to the purchase of an LEV over a conventional vehicle. The three most significant variables were found to be: intra‐cordon residency (positive); commuting across the cordon (positive); and distance of residence from the cordon (negative). In order to estimate the effect of the exemption policy on vehicle purchase choice, the model included variables to control for geographic differences in preferences, based on the location of the vehicle owners’ homes and workplaces in relation to the congestion‐charging cordon boundary. These variables included one indicator representing commutes across the cordon and another indicator representing intra‐cordon residency. The effect of the exemption policy on the probability of purchasing LEVs was estimated in the second stage of the analysis by focusing on the groups of vehicle owners that were most likely to have been affected by the policy i.e. those commuting across the cordon boundary (in both directions). Given the inclusion of the indicator variable representing commutes across the cordon, it is assumed that the estimated coefficient of this variable captures the effect of the exemption policy on the utility of choosing to purchase an exempt LEV for these two groups of vehicle owners. The intra‐cordon residency indicator variable also controls for differences between the two groups, based upon direction of travel across the cordon boundary. A counter‐hypothesis to this assumption is that the coefficient of the variable representing commuting across the cordon boundary instead only captures geo‐demographic differences that lead to variations in LEV ownership across the different groups of vehicle owners in relation to the cordon boundary. In order to address this counter‐hypothesis, an additional analysis was performed on data from a city with a similar geodemographic pattern to Stockholm, Gothenburg ‐ Sweden’s second largest city. The results of this analysis provided evidence to support the argument that the coefficient of the variable representing commutes across the cordon was capturing the effect of the exemption policy. Based upon this framework, the predicted vehicle type shares were calculated using the estimated coefficients of the MNL model and compared with predicted vehicle type shares from a simulated scenario where the exemption policy was inactive. This simulated scenario was constructed by setting the coefficient for the variable representing commutes across the cordon boundary to zero for all observations to remove the utility benefit of the exemption policy. Overall, the procedure of this second stage of the analysis led to results showing that the exemption had a substantial effect upon the probability of purchasing and aggregate demand for exempt LEVs in Stockholm during 2008. By making use of unique evidence of revealed preferences of LEV owners, this study identifies the common characteristics of new LEV owners and estimates the effect of Stockholm's congestion charging exemption upon the demand for new LEVs during 2008. It was found that the variables that had the greatest effect upon the choice of purchasing an exempt LEV included intra‐cordon residency (positive), distance of home from the cordon (negative), and commuting across the cordon (positive). It was also determined that owners under the age of 30 years preferred non‐exempt LEVs (low CO2 LEVs), whilst those over the age of 30 years preferred electric vehicles. In terms of electric vehicles, it was apparent that those individuals living within the city had the highest propensity towards purchasing this vehicle type. A negative relationship between choosing an electric vehicle and the distance of an individuals’ residency from the cordon was also evident. Overall, the congestion charging exemption was found to have increased the share of exempt LEVs in Stockholm by 1.9%, with, as expected, a much stronger effect on those commuting across the boundary, with those living inside the cordon having a 13.1% increase, and those owners living outside the cordon having a 5.0% increase. This increase in demand corresponded to an additional 538 (+/‐ 93; 95% C.I.) new exempt LEVs purchased in Stockholm during 2008 (out of a total of 5 427; 9.9%). Policy makers can take note that an incentive‐based policy can increase the demand for LEVs and appears to be an appropriate approach to adopt when attempting to reduce transport emissions through encouraging a transition towards a ‘green’ vehicle fleet.

Foreword

Foreword for the book, "INTERCHANGING: Future designs for responsive transport environments"

A three-phase to single-phase matrix converter based bi-directional IPT system for charging electric vehicles

This paper presents a novel three-phase to single-phase matrix converter (TSMC) based bi-directional inductive power transfer (IPT) system for vehicle-to-grid (V2G) applications. In contrast to existing techniques, the proposed technique which employs a TSMC to drive an 8th order high frequency resonant network, requires only a single-stage power conversion process to facilitate bi-directional power transfer between electric vehicles (EVs) and a three-phase utility power supply. A mathematical model is presented to demonstrate that both magnitude and direction of power flow can be controlled by regulating either relative phase angles or magnitudes of voltages generated by converters. The viability of the proposed mathematical model is verified using simulated results of a 10 kW bi-directional IPT system and the results suggest that the proposed system is efficient, reliable and is suitable for high power applications which require contactless power transfer.

Vision based guidance for robot navigation in agriculture

This paper describes a novel vision based texture tracking method to guide autonomous vehicles in agricultural fields where the crop rows are challenging to detect. Existing methods require sufficient visual difference between the crop and soil for segmentation, or explicit knowledge of the structure of the crop rows. This method works by extracting and tracking the direction and lateral offset of the dominant parallel texture in a simulated overhead view of the scene and hence abstracts away crop-specific details such as colour, spacing and periodicity. The results demonstrate that the method is able to track crop rows across fields with extremely varied appearance during day and night. We demonstrate this method can autonomously guide a robot along the crop rows.

Decision strategies for automated visual collision avoidance

This paper provides a preliminary analysis of an autonomous uncooperative collision avoidance strategy for unmanned aircraft using image-based visual control. Assuming target detection, the approach consists of three parts. First, a novel decision strategy is used to determine appropriate reference image features to track for safe avoidance. This is achieved by considering the current rules of the air (regulations), the properties of spiral motion and the expected visual tracking errors. Second, a spherical visual predictive control (VPC) scheme is used to guide the aircraft along a safe spiral-like trajectory about the object. Lastly, a stopping decision based on thresholding a cost function is used to determine when to stop the avoidance behaviour. The approach does not require estimation of range or time to collision, and instead relies on tuning two mutually exclusive decision thresholds to ensure satisfactory performance.

Contactless and replaceable modularized battery energy storage system for electric vehicles

A novel replaceable, modularized energy storage system with wireless interface is proposed for a battery operated electric vehicle (EV). The operation of the proposed system is explained and analyzed with an equivalent circuit and an averaged state-space model. A non-linear feedback linearization based controller is developed and implemented to regulate the DC link voltage by modulating the phase shift ratio. The working and control of the proposed system is verified through simulation and some preliminary results are presented.

Controller synthesis of a bidirectional inductive power interface for electric vehicles

Bidirectional Inductive Power Transfer (IPT) systems are preferred for Vehicle-to-Grid (V2G) applications. Typically, bidirectional IPT systems consist of high order resonant networks, and therefore, the control of bidirectional IPT systems has always been a difficulty. To date several different controllers have been reported, but these have been designed using steady-state models, which invariably, are incapable of providing an accurate insight into the dynamic behaviour of the system A dynamic state-space model of a bidirectional IPT system has been reported. However, currently this model has not been used to optimise the design of controllers. Therefore, this paper proposes an optimised controller based on the dynamic model. To verify the operation of the proposed controller simulated results of the optimised controller and simulated results of another controller are compared. Results indicate that the proposed controller is capable of accurately and stably controlling the power flow in a bidirectional IPT system.

Control of solar powered micro-grids using electric vehicles

Large scale solar plants are gaining recognition as potential energy sources for future. In this paper, the feasibility of using electric vehicles (EVs) to control a solar powered micro-grid is investigated in detail. The paper presents a PSCAD/EMTDC based model for the solar powered micro-grid with EVs. EVs are expected to have both the vehicle-to-grid (V2G) and grid-to-vehicle (G2V) capability, through which energy can either be injected into or extracted from the solar powered micro-grid to control its energy imbalance. Using the model, the behaviour of the micro-grid is investigated under a given load profile, and the results indicate that a minimum number of EVs are required to meet the energy imbalance and it is time dependent and influenced by various factors such as depth of charge, commuting profiles, reliability etc...

A unique battery/supercapacitor direct integration scheme for hybrid electric vehicles

Battery/supercapacitor hybrid energy storage systems have been gaining popularity in electric vehicles due to their excellent power and energy performances. Conventional designs of such systems require interfacing dc-dc converters. These additional dc-dc converters increase power loss, complexity, weight and cost. Therefore, this paper proposes a new direct integration scheme for battery/supercapacitor hybrid energy storage systems using a double ended inverter system. This unique approach eliminates the need for interfacing converters and thus it is free from aforementioned drawbacks. Furthermore, the proposed system offers seven operating modes to improve the effective use of available energy in a typical drive cycle of a hybrid electric vehicle. Simulation results are presented to verify the efficacy of the proposed system and control techniques.

A runtime integrity monitoring framework for real-time relative positioning systems based on GPS and DSRC

This paper provides a three-layered framework to monitor the positioning performance requirements of Real-time Relative Positioning (RRP) systems of the Cooperative Intelligent Transport Systems (C-ITS) that support Cooperative Collision Warning (CCW) applications. These applications exploit state data of surrounding vehicles obtained solely from the Global Positioning System (GPS) and Dedicated Short-Range Communications (DSRC) units without using other sensors. To this end, the paper argues the need for the GPS/DSRC-based RRP systems to have an autonomous monitoring mechanism, since the operation of CCW applications is meant to augment safety on roads. The advantages of autonomous integrity monitoring are essential and integral to any safety-of-life system. The autonomous integrity monitoring framework proposed necessitates the RRP systems to detect/predict the unavailability of their sub-systems and of the integrity monitoring module itself, and, if available, to account for effects of data link delays and breakages of DSRC links, as well as of faulty measurement sources of GPS and/or integrated augmentation positioning systems, before the information used for safety warnings/alarms becomes unavailable, unreliable, inaccurate or misleading. Hence, a monitoring framework using a tight integration and correlation approach is proposed for instantaneous reliability assessment of the RRP systems. Ultimately, using the proposed framework, the RRP systems will provide timely alerts to users when the RRP solutions cannot be trusted or used for the intended operation.

Willingness-to-pay for infrastructure investments for alternative fuel vehicles

This study investigates potential demand for infrastructure investment for alternative fuel vehicles by applying stated preference methods to a Japanese sample. The potential demand is estimated on the basis of how much people are willing to pay for alternative fuel vehicles under various refueling scenarios. Using the estimated parameters, the economic efficiency of establishing battery-exchange stations for electric vehicles is examined. The results indicate that infrastructural development of battery-exchange stations can be efficient when electric vehicle sales exceed 5.63% of all new vehicle sales. Further, we find a complementary relationship between the cruising ranges of alternative fuel vehicles and the infrastructure established.

Data fusion and tracking with multiple UAVs

This chapter describes decentralized data fusion algorithms for a team of multiple autonomous platforms. Decentralized data fusion (DDF) provides a useful basis with which to build upon for cooperative information gathering tasks for robotic teams operating in outdoor environments. Through the DDF algorithms, each platform can maintain a consistent global solution from which decisions may then be made. Comparisons will be made between the implementation of DDF using two probabilistic representations. The first, Gaussian estimates and the second Gaussian mixtures are compared using a common data set. The overall system design is detailed, providing insight into the overall complexity of implementing a robust DDF system for use in information gathering tasks in outdoor UAV applications.

The impact of a congestion pricing exemption on the demand for new energy efficient vehicles in Stockholm

As governments seek to transition to more efficient vehicle fleets, one strategy has been to incentivize ‘green’ vehicle choice by exempting some of these vehicles from road user charges. As an example, to stimulate sales of Energy-Efficient Vehicles (EEVs) in Sweden, some of these automobiles were exempted from Stockholm’s congestion tax. In this paper the effect this policy had on the demand for new, privately-owned, exempt EEVs is assessed by first estimating a model of vehicle choice and then by applying this model to simulate vehicle alternative market shares under different policy scenarios. The database used to calibrate the model includes owner-specific demographics merged with vehicle registry data for all new private vehicles registered in Stockholm County during 2008. Characteristics of individuals with a higher propensity to purchase an exempt EEV were identified. The most significant factors included intra-cordon residency (positive), distance from home to the CBD (negative), and commuting across the cordon (positive). By calculating vehicle shares from the vehicle choice model and then comparing these estimates to a simulated scenario where the congestion tax exemption was inactive, the exemption was estimated to have substantially increased the share of newly purchased, private, exempt EEVs in Stockholm by 1.8% (+/- 0.3%; 95% C.I.) to a total share of 18.8%. This amounts to an estimated 10.7% increase in private, exempt EEV purchases during 2008 i.e. 519 privately owned, exempt EEVs.