Terrorism risk, resilience and volatility : a comparison of terrorism patterns in three Southeast Asian countries

Objective This article explores patterns of terrorist activity over the period from 2000 through 2010 across three target countries: Indonesia, the Philippines and Thailand. Methods We use self-exciting point process models to create interpretable and replicable metrics for three key terrorism concepts: risk, resilience and volatility, as defined in the context of terrorist activity. Results Analysis of the data shows significant and important differences in the risk, volatility and resilience metrics over time across the three countries. For the three countries analysed, we show that risk varied on a scale from 0.005 to 1.61 “expected terrorist attacks per day”, volatility ranged from 0.820 to 0.994 “additional attacks caused by each attack”, and resilience, as measured by the number of days until risk subsides to a pre-attack level, ranged from 19 to 39 days. We find that of the three countries, Indonesia had the lowest average risk and volatility, and the highest level of resilience, indicative of the relatively sporadic nature of terrorist activity in Indonesia. The high terrorism risk and low resilience in the Philippines was a function of the more intense, less clustered pattern of terrorism than what was evident in Indonesia. Conclusions Mathematical models hold great promise for creating replicable, reliable and interpretable “metrics” to key terrorism concepts such as risk, resilience and volatility.

Should I stay or should I go? The challenges and opportunities of moving between university systems

The scientific job market has evolved to a truly globalized market. This is epitomized not only by the English language being the de facto scientific language but also by the increasing share of native language journals that are being offered in multiple languages or have or will fully converted to English (such as, for example, the BISE journal in 2015). Similarly, a plethora of exchange programs exists that allow students and academic staff to visit other institutions and exchange knowledge, ideas, and learning opportunities. While student migration across scientific institutions is an established phenomenon (Gribble, 2008) with ample structures, policies, and schemes such as ERASMUS1 in place, academic staff migration between countries is still a challenge, even if exchange programs exist (Enders, 1998). One reason may be that different career paths, varying teaching loads and different evaluation schemes for what constitutes scientific excellence are notable. This also influences the decision of where to start and continue an academic career. While the university systems themselves have been examined previously (Galliers and Whitley, 2007; Lyytinen et al., 2007) and while there is knowledge about career requirements in different university systems (Dennis et al., 2006; Dean et al., 2011; Loos et al., 2013; Recker, 2013), we still do not know much about individual and contextual decisions of academics that either consider or execute a migration between university systems.

Nutritional influences over the life course on lean body mass of individuals in developing countries

The double burden of childhood undernutrition and adult-onset adiposity in transitioning societies poses a significant public health challenge. The development of suboptimal lean body mass (LBM) could partly explain the link between these two forms of malnutrition. This review examines the evidence on both the role of nutrition in “developmental programming” of LBM and the nutritional influences that affect LBM throughout the life course. Studies from developing countries assessing the relationship of early nutrition with later LBM provide important insights. Overall, the evidence is consistent in suggesting a positive association of early nutritional status (indicated by birth weight and growth during first 2 years) with LBM in later life. Evidence on the impact of maternal nutritional supplementation during pregnancy on later LBM is inconsistent. In addition, the role of nutrients (protein, zinc, calcium, vitamin D) that can affect LBM throughout the life course is described. Promoting optimal intakes of these important nutrients throughout the life course is important for reducing childhood undernutrition as well as for improving the LBM of adults.

Domestic artefacts: Sustainability in the context of Indian middle class

Sustainability has become one of the important research topics in the field of Human Computer Interaction (HCI). However, the majority of work has focused on the Western culture. In this paper, we explore sustainable household practices in the developing world. Our research draws on the results from an ethnographic field study of household women belonging to the so-called middle class in India. We analyze our results in the context of Blevis' [4] principles of sustainable interaction design (established within the Western culture), to extract the intercultural aspects that need to be considered for designing technologies. We present examples from the field that we term "domestic artefacts". Domestic artefacts represent creative and sustainable ways household women appropriate and adapt used objects to create more useful and enriching objects that support household members' everyday activities. Our results show that the rationale behind creating domestic artefacts is not limited to the practicality and usefulness, but it shows how religious beliefs, traditions, family intimacy, personal interests and health issues are incorporated into them.

Stagnancy in Indonesia’s reformed state asset management policies and practices : a wicked problem?

The policies and regulations governing the practice of state asset management have emerged as an urgent question among many countries worldwide for there is heightened awareness of the complex and crucial role that state assets play in public service provision. Indonesia is an example of such country, introducing a ‘big-bang’ reform in state asset management laws, policies, regulations, and technical guidelines. Indonesia exemplified its enthusiasm in reforming state asset management policies and practices through the establishment of the Directorate General of State Assets in 2006. The Directorate General of State Assets have stressed the new direction that it is taking state asset management laws and policies through the introduction of Republic of Indonesia Law Number 38 Year 2008, which is an amended regulation overruling Republic of Indonesia Law Number 6 Year 2006 on Central/Regional Government State Asset Management. Law number 38/2008 aims to further exemplify good governance principles and puts forward a ‘the highest and best use of assets’ principle in state asset management. The purpose of this study is to explore and analyze specific contributing influences to state asset management practices, answering the question why innovative state asset management policy implementation is stagnant. The methodology of this study is that of qualitative case study approach, utilizing empirical data sample of four Indonesian regional governments. Through a thematic analytical approach this study provides an in-depth analysis of each influencing factors to state asset management reform. Such analysis suggests the potential of an ‘excuse rhetoric’; whereby the influencing factors identified are a smoke-screen, or are myths that public policy makers and implementers believe in, as a means to ex-plain stagnant implementation of innovative state asset management practice. Thus this study offers deeper insights of the intricate web that influences state as-set management innovative policies to state asset management policy makers; to be taken into consideration in future policy writing.

Why are there Different Age Related Trends for Different Chemicals?

Persistent organic pollutants (POPs) such as dioxins, PCBs, persistent organochlorine pesticides (OCPs) and polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) as well as perfluorinated compounds (PFCs) and triclosan are ubiquitous in the human population. In Australia, we have pooled and subsequently analysed over 10 000 human serum samples for the determination of these chemicals by age group (0–0.5; 0.6–1; 1.1–1.5; 1.6–2; 2.1–2.5; 2.6–3; 3.1–3.5; 3.6–4; 4.1–6; 6.1–9; 9.1–12; 12.1–15; 16–30; 31–45; 46–60 and >60 years) and gender. The results of this analysis were then used to assess the trends of these different chemicals as a function of age, gender and to a lesser extent region. Our data demonstrate clear chemical specific age trends. In particular we demonstrate that for the traditional POPs there is an increase in body burden with age whereas the opposite is true for chemicals such as PBDEs. For PFCs we find chemical specific age trends that vary from compound to compound. For triclosan we show that no apparent age trend is observable. The results of the study and its implications to the collection and archiving of samples for retrospective analysis are discussed.

Journalism students’ professional views in eight countries : the role of motivations, education, and gender

The global trend toward university-based journalism education has led to a growing scrutiny of students’ experiences at university and the extent to which professional views may be shaped there. Three main influences have been identified in the literature: students’ preferences for certain news beats, their gender, and students’ stage of progression in a journalism program. Typically, however, analyses have focused on only one potential influence within one particular country at a time. Arguing that a comparative approach is needed, this article examines potential influences on journalism students’ role perceptions across eight countries. Results suggest that students’ motivations, and the amount of time they have spent in a program, play a part in influencing their professional views while gender has little influence.

Mass spectrometric studies of the oxocarbons CnOn (n=3-6)

The anion radicals CnOn-. (n = 3-6) can be generated by ionization of cyclic carbonyl compounds in the negative ion mode. The ions as well as the corresponding neutral counterparts are probed by means of different mass spectrometric techniques. The results suggest that oxocarbons, i.e. cyclic polyketones, are formed under conservation of the skeletons of the precursor molecules. At least for n = 3, however, the experimental findings indicate partial rearrangement of the expected cyclopropanetrione structure to an oxycarboxylate for the anion, i.e. O-.-C=C-CO2-. For n = 4 and 6 almost complete dissociation of the neutral polyones into carbon monoxide is found, whereas for n = 5 a distinct recovery signal indicates the generation of genuine cyclopentanepentaone.

Poly-[μ-aqua-μ5-[(2,3,6-trichlorophenyl)acetato)-caesium]

In the structure of the title complex [Cs(C8H4Cl3O2)(H2O)]n, the Cs salt of the commercial herbicide fenac [(2,3,6-trichlorophenyl)acetic acid], the irregular eight-coordination about Cs+ comprises a bidentate chelate (O:Cl) interaction involving a carboxyl O-atom and an ortho-related ring substituted Cl atom which is also bridging, a triple-bridging carboxyl O-atom and a bridging water molecule. A two-dimensional sheet polymer is generated, lying parallel to (100), within which there are water O---H...O(carboxyl) hydrogen-bonding interactions.

Contribution of fibroblast and mast cell (afferent) and tumor (efferent) IL-6 effects within the tumor microenvironment

Hyperactive inflammatory responses following cancer initiation have led to cancer being described as a 'wound that never heals'. These inflammatory responses elicit signals via NFκB leading to IL-6 production, and IL-6 in turn has been shown to induce epithelial to mesenchymal transition in breast cancer cells in vitro, implicating a role for this cytokine in cancer cell invasion. We previously have shown that conditioned medium derived from cancer-associated fibroblasts induced an Epithelial to Mesenchymal transition (EMT) in PMC42-LA breast cancer cells and we have now identify IL-6 as present in this medium. We further show that IL-6 is expressed approximately 100 fold higher in a cancer-associated fibroblast line compared to normal fibroblasts. Comparison of mouse-specific (stroma) and human-specific (tumor) IL-6 mRNA expression from MCF-7, MDA MB 468 and MDA MB 231 xenografts also indicated the stroma rather than tumor as a significantly higher source of IL-6 expression. Mast cells (MCs) feature in inflammatory cancer-associated stroma, and activated MCs secrete IL-6. We observed a higher MC index (average number of mast cells per xenograft section/average tumor size) in MDA MB 468 compared to MDA MB 231 xenografts, where all MC were observed to be active (degranulating). This higher MC index correlated with greater mouse-specific IL-6 expression in the MDA MB 468 xenografts, implicating MC as an important source of stromal IL-6. Furthermore, immunohistochemistry on these xenografts for pSTAT3, which lies downstream of the IL-6 receptor indicated frequent correlations between pSTAT3 and mast cell positive cells. Analysis of publically available databases for IL-6 expression in patient tissue revealed higher IL-6 in laser capture microdissected stroma compared to adjacent tissue epithelium from patients with inflammatory breast cancer (IBC) and invasive non-inflammatory breast cancer (non-IBC) and we show that IL-6 expression was significantly higher in Basal versus Luminal molecular/phenotypic groupings of breast cancer cell lines. Finally, we discuss how afferent and efferent IL-6 pathways may participate in a positive feedback cycle to dictate tumor progression.

Interleukin-6 is a potent inducer of S100P, which is up-regulated in androgen-refractory and metastatic prostate cancer

Elevated circulating interleukin-6 (IL6) and up-regulated S100P in prostate cancer (PCa) specimens correlate independently with progression to androgen-independent and metastatic PCa. The cause of up-regulated S100P levels in advanced PCa remains to be determined. We investigated the possibility that IL6 is an inducer of S100P. Determination of mRNA and protein levels by real-time PCR and Western blotting revealed that IL6 is a more potent inducer of S100P than the synthetic androgen, R1881, in the LNCaP/C4-2B model of PCa progression. IL6 did not require androgen to induce S100P in these cells, which express a functional androgen receptor (AR). Like R1881, IL6 was unable to induce S100P in PC3 cells that lack a functional AR. IL6 did not strongly induce the AR-dependent genes PSA and KLK2 and, contrary to R1881, down-regulated Cyr61/CCN1, a potential marker that is down-regulated in PCa. Epidermal growth factor (EGF), which like IL6 is a non-androgen activator of the AR, did not induce S100P. The data identifies a unique gene-induction profile for IL6 and suggests that IL6 may require a functional AR for S100P induction. A link between elevated IL6 and up-regulated S100P in androgen-refractory and metastatic PCa is postulated.

The impact of a congestion charging exemption on the demand for new low‐emission vehicles

Numerous initiatives have been employed around the world in order to address rising greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions originating from the transport sector. These measures include: travel demand management (congestion‐charging), increased fuel taxes, alternative fuel subsidies and low‐emission vehicle (LEV) rebates. Incentivizing the purchase of LEVs has been one of the more prevalent approaches in attempting to tackle this global issue. LEVs, whilst having the advantage of lower emissions and, in some cases, more efficient fuel consumption, also bring the downsides of increased purchase cost, reduced convenience of vehicle fuelling, and operational uncertainty. To stimulate demand in the face of these challenges, various incentive‐based policies, such as toll exemptions, have been used by national and local governments to encourage the purchase of these types of vehicles. In order to address rising GHG emissions in Stockholm, and in line with the Swedish Government’s ambition to operate a fossil free fleet by 2030, a number of policies were implemented targeting the transport sector. Foremost amongst these was the combination of a congestion charge – initiated to discourage emissions‐intensive travel – and an exemption from this charge for some LEVs, established to encourage a transition towards a ‘green’ vehicle fleet. Although both policies shared the aim of reducing GHG emissions, the exemption for LEVs carried the risk of diminishing the effectiveness of the congestion charging scheme. As the number of vehicle owners choosing to transition to an eligible LEV increased, the congestion‐reduction effectiveness of the charging scheme weakened. In fact, policy makers quickly recognized this potential issue and consequently phased out the LEV exemption less than 18 months after its introduction (1). Several studies have investigated the demand for LEVs through stated‐preference (SP) surveys across multiple countries, including: Denmark (2), Germany (3, 4), UK (5), Canada (6), USA (7, 8) and Australia (9). Although each of these studies differed in approach, all involved SP surveys where differing characteristics between various types of vehicles, including LEVs, were presented to respondents and these respondents in turn made hypothetical decisions about which vehicle they would be most likely to purchase. Although these studies revealed a number of interesting findings in regards to the potential demand for LEVs, they relied on SP data. In contrast, this paper employs an approach where LEV choice is modelled by taking a retrospective view and by using revealed preference (RP) data. By examining the revealed preferences of vehicle owners in Stockholm, this study overcomes one of the principal limitations of SP data, namely that stated preferences may not in fact reflect individuals’ actual choices, such as when cost, time, and inconvenience factors are real rather than hypothetical. This paper’s RP approach involves modelling the characteristics of individuals who purchased new LEVs, whilst estimating the effect of the congestion charging exemption upon choice probabilities and subsequent aggregate demand. The paper contributes to the current literature by examining the effectiveness of a toll exemption under revealed preference conditions, and by assessing the total effect of the policy based on key indicators for policy makers, including: vehicle owner home location, commuting patterns, number of children, age, gender and income. Extended Abstract Submission for Kuhmo Nectar Conference 2014 2 The two main research questions motivating this study were:  Which individuals chose to purchase a new LEV in Stockholm in 2008?; and,  How did the congestion charging exemption affect the aggregate demand for new LEVs in Stockholm in 2008? In order to answer these research questions the analysis was split into two stages. Firstly, a multinomial logit (MNL) model was used to identify which demographic characteristics were most significantly related to the purchase of an LEV over a conventional vehicle. The three most significant variables were found to be: intra‐cordon residency (positive); commuting across the cordon (positive); and distance of residence from the cordon (negative). In order to estimate the effect of the exemption policy on vehicle purchase choice, the model included variables to control for geographic differences in preferences, based on the location of the vehicle owners’ homes and workplaces in relation to the congestion‐charging cordon boundary. These variables included one indicator representing commutes across the cordon and another indicator representing intra‐cordon residency. The effect of the exemption policy on the probability of purchasing LEVs was estimated in the second stage of the analysis by focusing on the groups of vehicle owners that were most likely to have been affected by the policy i.e. those commuting across the cordon boundary (in both directions). Given the inclusion of the indicator variable representing commutes across the cordon, it is assumed that the estimated coefficient of this variable captures the effect of the exemption policy on the utility of choosing to purchase an exempt LEV for these two groups of vehicle owners. The intra‐cordon residency indicator variable also controls for differences between the two groups, based upon direction of travel across the cordon boundary. A counter‐hypothesis to this assumption is that the coefficient of the variable representing commuting across the cordon boundary instead only captures geo‐demographic differences that lead to variations in LEV ownership across the different groups of vehicle owners in relation to the cordon boundary. In order to address this counter‐hypothesis, an additional analysis was performed on data from a city with a similar geodemographic pattern to Stockholm, Gothenburg ‐ Sweden’s second largest city. The results of this analysis provided evidence to support the argument that the coefficient of the variable representing commutes across the cordon was capturing the effect of the exemption policy. Based upon this framework, the predicted vehicle type shares were calculated using the estimated coefficients of the MNL model and compared with predicted vehicle type shares from a simulated scenario where the exemption policy was inactive. This simulated scenario was constructed by setting the coefficient for the variable representing commutes across the cordon boundary to zero for all observations to remove the utility benefit of the exemption policy. Overall, the procedure of this second stage of the analysis led to results showing that the exemption had a substantial effect upon the probability of purchasing and aggregate demand for exempt LEVs in Stockholm during 2008. By making use of unique evidence of revealed preferences of LEV owners, this study identifies the common characteristics of new LEV owners and estimates the effect of Stockholm's congestion charging exemption upon the demand for new LEVs during 2008. It was found that the variables that had the greatest effect upon the choice of purchasing an exempt LEV included intra‐cordon residency (positive), distance of home from the cordon (negative), and commuting across the cordon (positive). It was also determined that owners under the age of 30 years preferred non‐exempt LEVs (low CO2 LEVs), whilst those over the age of 30 years preferred electric vehicles. In terms of electric vehicles, it was apparent that those individuals living within the city had the highest propensity towards purchasing this vehicle type. A negative relationship between choosing an electric vehicle and the distance of an individuals’ residency from the cordon was also evident. Overall, the congestion charging exemption was found to have increased the share of exempt LEVs in Stockholm by 1.9%, with, as expected, a much stronger effect on those commuting across the boundary, with those living inside the cordon having a 13.1% increase, and those owners living outside the cordon having a 5.0% increase. This increase in demand corresponded to an additional 538 (+/‐ 93; 95% C.I.) new exempt LEVs purchased in Stockholm during 2008 (out of a total of 5 427; 9.9%). Policy makers can take note that an incentive‐based policy can increase the demand for LEVs and appears to be an appropriate approach to adopt when attempting to reduce transport emissions through encouraging a transition towards a ‘green’ vehicle fleet.

Identifying the key sociocultural influences on drinking behavior in high and moderate binge-drinking countries and the public policy implications

Despite considerable state investment and initiatives, binge drinking is still a major behavioral problem for policy makers and communities in many parts of the world. Furthermore, the practice of bingeing on alcohol seems to be spreading to young people in countries traditionally considered to have moderate drinking behaviors. Using a sociocultural lens and a framework of sociocultural themes from previous literature to develop propositions from their empirical study, the authors examine binge-drinking attitudes and behaviors among young people from high and moderate binge-drinking countries. The authors then make proposals regarding how policy makers can use social marketing more effectively to contribute to behavior change. Qualitative interviews were conducted with 91 respondents from 22 countries who were studying in two high binge-drinking countries at the time. The results show support for three contrasting sociocultural propositions that identify influences on binge drinking across these countries.

6 versus 12 month performance of polycaprolactone-based scaffold plus recombinant human morphogenetic protein-2 (rhBMP-2) in an ovine thoracic interbody fusion model

Introduction Well-designed biodegradable scaffolds in combination with bone growth factors offer a valuable alternative to the current gold standard autograft in spinal fusion surgery Yong et al. (2013). Here we report on 6- vs 12- month data set evaluating the longitudinal performance of a CaP coated polycaprolactone (PCL) scaffold loaded with recombinant human bone morphogenetic protein-2 (rhBMP-2) as a bone graft substitute within a large preclinical animal model. Methods Twelve sheep underwent a 3-level (T6/7, T8/9 and T10/11) discectomy with randomly allocated implantation of a different graft substitute at each of the three levels; (i) calcium phosphate (CaP) coated polycaprolactone based scaffold plus 0.54µg rhBMP-2, (ii) CaP coated PCL- based scaffold alone or (iii) autograft (mulched rib head). Fusion assessments were performed via high resolution clinical computed tomography and histological evaluation were undertaken at six (n=6) and twelve (n=6) months post-surgery using the Sucato grading system (Sucato et al. 2004). Results The computed tomography fusion grades of the 6- and 12- months in the rhBMP-2 plus PCL- based scaffold group were 1.9 and 2.1 respectively, in the autograft group 1.9 and 1.3 respectively, and in the scaffold alone group 0.9 and 1.17 respectively. There were no statistically significant differences in the fusion scores between 6- and 12- month for the rhBMP plus PCL- based scaffold or PCL – based scaffold alone group however there was a significant reduction in scores in the autograft group. These scores were seen to correlate with histological evaluations of the respective groups. Conclusions The results of this study demonstrate the efficacy of scaffold-based delivery of rhBMP-2 in promoting higher fusion grades at 6- and 12- months in comparison to the scaffold alone or autograft group within the same time frame. Fusion grades achieved at six months using PCL+rhBMP-2 are not significantly increased at twelve months post-surgery.