Factors affecting the accuracy of engineers' estimates

Emerging sciences, such as conceptual cost estimating, seem to have to go through two phases. The first phase involves reducing the field of study down to its basic ingredients - from systems development to technological development (techniques) to theoretical development. The second phase operates in the direction in building up techniques from theories, and systems from techniques. Cost estimating is clearly and distinctly still in the first phase. A great deal of effort has been put into the development of both manual and computer based cost estimating systems during this first phase and, to a lesser extent, the development of a range of techniques that can be used (see, for instance, Ashworth & Skitmore, 1986). Theoretical developments have not, as yet, been forthcoming. All theories need the support of some observational data and cost estimating is not likely to be an exception. These data do not need to be complete in order to build theories. As it is possible to construct an image of a prehistoric animal such as the brontosaurus from only a few key bones and relics, so a theory of cost estimating may possibly be found on a few factual details. The eternal argument of empiricists and deductionists is that, as theories need factual support, so do we need theories in order to know what facts to collect. In cost estimating, the basic facts of interest concern accuracy, the cost of achieving this accuracy, and the trade off between the two. When cost estimating theories do begin to emerge, it is highly likely that these relationships will be central features. This paper presents some of the facts we have been able to acquire regarding one part of this relationship - accuracy, and its influencing factors. Although some of these factors, such as the amount of information used in preparing the estimate, will have cost consequences, we have not yet reached the stage of quantifying these costs. Indeed, as will be seen, many of the factors do not involve any substantial cost considerations. The absence of any theory is reflected in the arbitrary manner in which the factors are presented. Rather, the emphasis here is on the consideration of purely empirical data concerning estimating accuracy. The essence of good empirical research is to .minimize the role of the researcher in interpreting the results of the study. Whilst space does not allow a full treatment of the material in this manner, the principle has been adopted as closely as possible to present results in an uncleaned and unbiased way. In most cases the evidence speaks for itself. The first part of the paper reviews most of the empirical evidence that we have located to date. Knowledge of any work done, but omitted here would be most welcome. The second part of the paper presents an analysis of some recently acquired data pertaining to this growing subject.

The momentum effect in competitions : field evidence from tennis matches

It is often suggested that there is a psychological advantage to be leading in a competition. It is, however, hard to identify such an effect econometrically. Using a Regression Discontinuity Design over a large dataset of tennis matches (N=634,095) the present paper exploits the randomised variation in first set results that occurs when the first set is decided by a close tie break (N=72,294). I find that winning the first set has a significant and strong effect on the result of the second set. A player who wins a close first set tie break will, on average, win one game more in the second set. I discuss the likely economic and psychological explanations of this phenomenon.

Applying quality management to project delivery in Hong Kong : A field study of management perceptions

The concept of market-driven rather than product-driven quality management has been given prominence through the report of a recent inquiry into the performance of the Hong Kong construction industry. The report submitted to the Government of Hong Kong in 2001 establishes a new vision of ‘an integrated industry that is capable of continuous improvement towards excellence in the market-driven environment’. Given the current economic downturn, major contractors are facing many challenges to realize this new quality oriented vision. This paper addresses the critical and timely issue of applying quality management to the project delivery process in Hong Kong. The paper attempts to capture and critically examine management perceptions of quality management aspects as applied to a local large-scale road construction project. Based on the analysis of questionnaire feedback and face-to-face interviews, the paper reveals key attributes of a successful application of quality management approaches, and identifies a mechanism for facilitating such implementation.

Field-effect transistors fabricated from diluted magnetic semiconductor colloidal nanowires

Field-effect transistors (FETs) fabricated from undoped and Co2+-doped CdSe colloidal nanowires show typical n-channel transistor behaviour with gate effect. Exposed to microscope light, a 10 times current enhancement is observed in the doped nanowire-based devices due to the significant modification of the electronic structure of CdSe nanowires induced by Co2+-doping, which is revealed by theoretical calculations from spin-polarized plane-wave density functional theory.

Cultivating the pedagogy of experience through international field trips : beyond the national context

Urban and regional planners, in the era of globalization, require being equipped with necessary skill sets to better deal with complex and rapidly changing economic, sociocultural, political, and environmental fabrics of cities and their regions. To provide such skill sets, urban and regional planning curriculum of Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Australia, offers planning practice in the international context. This article, first, reports the findings of pedagogic analyses of the international field trips conducted to Malaysia, Korea, Turkey, and Taiwan. The article, then, discusses the opportunities and constraints of exposure of students to planning practice beyond the Australian context.

Book review: "Qualitative Health Psychology. Theories and Methods" Michael Murray and Kerry Chamberlain (Eds.)

Qualitative Health Psychology aims to contribute to the debate about the nature of psychology and of science through ‘an examination of the role of qualitative research within health psychology’ (p. 3). The editors, in bringing together contributors from the UK, Ireland, Canada, Brazil, New Zealand and Australia, have compiled a text that reflects different uses of qualitative health research in diverse social and cultural contexts. Structured into three parts, the book encompasses key theoretical and methodological issues in qualitative research in its attempt to encourage broad epistemological debate within health psychology.

“Lay” theories of anorexia nervosa : a discourse analytic study

Previous studies on lay theories of anorexia nervosa have examined the ‘accuracy’ of lay knowledge, and the identification of factors by family and friends that would encourage early interventions (Huon, Brown, & Morris, 1988, 7, 239–252; Murray, Touyz, & Beumont, 1990, 9, 87–93). In contrast to these approaches, we examine lay theories of anorexia nervosa using a critical psychology perspective. We argue that the use of a discourse analysis methodology enables the examination of the construction of lay theories through dominant concepts and ideas. Ten semi-structured interviews with five women and five men aged between 15 and 25 years were carried out. Participants were asked questions about three main aspects of anorexia nervosa: aetiology, treatment and relationship to gender. Each interview was analysed in terms of the structure, function and variability of discourse. Three discourses: sociocultural, individual and femininity, are discussed in relation to the interview questions. We conclude that, in this study, lay theories of anorexia nervosa were structured through key discourses that maintained a separation between sociocultural aspects of anorexia nervosa and individual psychology. This separation exists in dominant psychomedical conceptualizations of anorexia nervosa, reinforcing the concept that it is a form of psychopathology.

Evaluation in health outcomes research : linking theories, methodologies and practice in health promotion.

Health outcomes research has developed as a means of evaluating the effectiveness of health care interventions and as an approach to informing resource allocation. The use of a health outcomes approach in health promotion has made increasing demands on evaluation methodologies to demonstrate program effectiveness. However, criticism of the contribution of health promotion to outcomes research has made several assumptions about the use of qualitative methodologies and the content of program objectives largely derived from a biomedical approach. In contrast to the measurement of biomedical interventions in clinical health care, health promotion practice involves social phenomena, wide-reaching cultural, psychological, political and ideological problems and issues. The integration of methodologies of health promotion evaluation will inform further conceptualisation of the health outcomes approach with the differentiation of three types of outcomes: health development outcomes; social health outcomes; and biomedical health outcomes. It is concluded that this differentiation moves away from dualist concepts that advocate the replacement of goals and targets with regional and locally based approaches. Rather, the future direction for health promotion evaluation needs to employ a framework that elaborates multiple methodologies and approaches necessary for establishing what relationships exist between morbidity, mortality, health advancement and equity.

Simplified method for including spatial correlations in mean-field approximations

Biological systems involving proliferation, migration and death are observed across all scales. For example, they govern cellular processes such as wound-healing, as well as the population dynamics of groups of organisms. In this paper, we provide a simplified method for correcting mean-field approximations of volume-excluding birth-death-movement processes on a regular lattice. An initially uniform distribution of agents on the lattice may give rise to spatial heterogeneity, depending on the relative rates of proliferation, migration and death. Many frameworks chosen to model these systems neglect spatial correlations, which can lead to inaccurate predictions of their behaviour. For example, the logistic model is frequently chosen, which is the mean-field approximation in this case. This mean-field description can be corrected by including a system of ordinary differential equations for pair-wise correlations between lattice site occupancies at various lattice distances. In this work we discuss difficulties with this method and provide a simplication, in the form of a partial differential equation description for the evolution of pair-wise spatial correlations over time. We test our simplified model against the more complex corrected mean-field model, finding excellent agreement. We show how our model successfully predicts system behaviour in regions where the mean-field approximation shows large discrepancies. Additionally, we investigate regions of parameter space where migration is reduced relative to proliferation, which has not been examined in detail before, and our method is successful at correcting the deviations observed in the mean-field model in these parameter regimes.

The Stitchery collective : fashion in an expanded field

This practice-based presentation explores the role of fashion as an agent for social inclusion and ethical design practice in communities. The Stitchery Collective is an artist-run initiative based in Brisbane, Australia. Operating at the intersection of craft and design, the fashion-based initiative challenges the assumption that fashion is designed, produced and consumed exclusively in the commercial sector. As a not-for-profit cooperative, the stitchery collective is the first and only fashion organisation in Australia to attract funding under the national and state artist-run-initiative scheme. The collective approach extends to the stitchery design practice, facilitated by individual practitioners working within the organisation who devise programs in the context of collaborative and socially engaged design. Working under the banner of a question, Can fashion be more than pretty clothes for pretty people? the stitchery works to extend the cultural field of fashion practice in the 21st century. The premise of dress as a ‘significant creative or cultural expression’ has informed the expanded definition of fashion practice, as adopted by the stitchery. This alternative classification has fostered partnerships with numerous community groups, including those marginalised in the contemporary fashion context such as recent migrants and refugees. Community engagement programs span design, sewing and up-cycling workshops, sustainability lectures, clothing swaps and public education seminars, supported by partnerships with various cultural, government and educational institutions. In 2011, the stitchery travelled to the Venice Biennale’s 3rd International Children’s Carnival, hosting a workshop series and installation to promote design for sustainability. The proven potential for design to connect community members has motivated the stitchery to question the opportunity for fashion practice to, perhaps uncharacteristically, operate under the banner of ‘design for social good’. Acknowledging craft and design as relational fields, this presentation expands fashion as a tool for social innovation and sustainable practice. The stitchery dislocates the consumer status of fashion with small-scale, localised projects; moving beyond fashion as a dictum of social class to an alternative model that is accessible, conscious, flexible, connected and sustainable. As an undefined post-industrial future approaches, the non-commercial status of the stitchery practice might work to present an image of the active post-consumer. How can the stitchery propose a resilient model of design for the future?

Urban agriculture : a growing field of research workshop at INTERACT 2013

Growing food presents diverse challenges and opportunities within the urban environment. As cities develop, population density rises, land prices rise, and the opportunity to use land for traditional farming and gardening diminishes. Counter to this trend there are a growing number of both community gardens, city farms, guerrilla gardening, rooftop and vertical gardens, pot plants, windowsill herbs, and other balcony or backyard gardens cropping up in different cities, all with a purpose to produce food. This workshop brings to-gether practitioners and researchers in the field of urban agriculture and Hu-man-Computer Interaction to explore and opportunities for technology design to support the different forms of growing practice and foster local food production in cities. This 1-day workshop will serve as an active forum for researchers and practi-tioners across various fields including, but not limited to, agriculture and gar-dening, education, urban planning, human-computer interaction, and communi-ty engagement. This workshop has three distinct points of focus: i) Individual and small-scale gardening and food production, and how to connect like minded people who are involved in these practices to share their knowledge ii) Com-munities involved in urban agriculture, either through community gardens, city farms, or grassroots movements, often dependant on volunteer participation, providing the challenge of managing limited resources iii) Environmental and sociocultural sustainability through urban agriculture. The participants will have an opportunity to present their own work. This will be followed by a visit to a nearby city farm, which will provide a local context for a group design exercise. Finally the workshop will conclude with panel dis-cussions to review opportunities for further research and collaborations beyond the conference. For more information, please visit the workshop website, at http://www.urbaninformatics.net/resources/interact2013cfp/

Studies of the off-field behaviours of sportspeople : are sponsors' objectives at risk?

The research reported here addresses the problem of athlete off-field behaviours as they influence sports’ sponsors, particularly the achievement of sponsorship objectives. The question arises because of incidents of sponsorship contract cancellation following news-media reporting of athletes’ off-field behaviours. Two studies are used to investigate the research question; the first establishes the content of news-media reports, and the second tests the effects of news’ reports on athlete, team and sponsor evaluations using an experimental design. Key assumptions of the research are that sponsorship objectives are principally consumer-based and mediated. Models of sponsorship argue that sponsors aim to reach and influence consumers through sponsees. Assuming this pathway exists is central to sponsorship activities. A corollary is that other mediators, in this case the news-media, may also communicate (uncontrollable) messages such that a consumer audience may be told of negative news that may then be associated with the sponsor. When sponsors cancel contracts it is assumed that their goal is to control the links between their brand and a negative referent. Balance theory is used to discuss the potential effects of negative off-field behaviours of athletes on sponsor’s objectives. Heider’s balance theory (1958) explains that individuals prefer to evaluate linked individuals or entities consistently. In the sponsorship context this presents the possibility that a negative evaluation of the athlete’s behaviour will contribute to correspondingly negative evaluations of the athlete’s team and sponsors. A content analysis (Study 1) was used to survey the types of athlete off-field behaviours commonly reported in a newspaper. In order to provide a local context for the research, articles from the Courier Mail were sampled and teams in the National Rugby League (NRL) competition were the focus of the research. The study identified nearly 2000 articles referring to the NRL competition; 258 of those refer to off-field incidents involving athletes. The various types of behaviours reported include assault, sexual assault allegations, driving under the influence of alcohol, illicit drug use, breaches of club rules, and positive off-field activities (i.e., charitable activities). An experiment (Study 2) tested three news’ article stimuli developed from the behaviours identified in Study 1 in a between-subjects design. A measure of Identification with the Team was used as a covariate variable in the Multivariate Analysis of Covariance analysis. Social identity theory suggests that when an individual identifies with a group, their attitudes and behaviours towards both in- and out-group members are modified. Use of Identification with the Team as a covariate acknowledges that respondents will evaluate behaviours differently according to the attribution of those behaviours to an in- or out-group member. Findings of the research suggest that the news’ article stimuli have significant, large effects on evaluations of athlete off-field behaviour and athlete Likability. Consistent with pretest results, charitable fundraising is regarded as extremely positive; the athlete, correspondingly, is likable. Assault is evaluated as extremely negative, and the athlete as unlikable. DUI scores reveal that the athlete’s behaviour is very negative; however, the athlete’s likability was evaluated as neutral. Treatment group does not produce any significant effects on team or sponsor variables. This research also finds that Identification with the Team has significant, large effects on team variables (Attitude toward the Brand and Corporate Image). Identification also has a significant large effect on athlete Likability, but not on Attitude toward the Act. Identification with the Team does not produce any significant effects on sponsor variables. The results of this research suggest that sponsor’s consumer-based objectives are not threatened by newspaper reports linking athlete off-field behaviour with their brand. Evaluations of sponsor variables (Attitude toward the Sponsor’s Brand and Corporate Image) were consistently positive. Variance in that data, however, cannot be attributed to experimental stimuli or Identification with the Team. These results argue that respondents may regard sponsorships, in principle, as good. Although it is good news for sponsors that negative evaluations of athletes will not produce correspondingly negative evaluations of consumer-based sponsorship objectives, the results indicate problems for sponsorship managers. The failure of Identification with the Team to explain sponsor variable variance indicates that the sponsor has not been evaluated as a linked entity in a relationship with the sporting team and athlete in this research. This result argues that the sponsee-mediated affective communication path that sponsors aim use to communicate with desirable publics is not necessarily a path available to them.

ICT shared services in the higher education sector : foundations, benefits, success factors and issues

Universities are more and more challenged by the emerging global higher education market, facilitated by advances in Information and Communication Technologies (ICT). This requires them to reconsider their mission and direction in order to function effectively and efficiently, and to be responsive to changes in their environment. In the face of increasing demands and competitive pressures, Universities like other companies, seek to continuously innovate and improve their performance. Universities are considering co-operating or sharing, both internally and externally, in a wide range of areas to achieve cost effectiveness and improvements in performance. Shared services are an effective model for re-organizing to reduce costs, increase quality and create new capabilities. Shared services are not limited to the Higher Education (HE) sector. Organizations across different sectors are adopting shared services, in particular for support functions such as Finance, Accounting, Human Resources and Information Technology. While shared services has been around for more than three decades, commencing in the 1970’s in the banking sector and then been adopted by other sectors, it is an under researched domain, with little consensus on the most fundamental issues even as basic as defining what shared services is. Moreover, the interest in shared services within Higher Education is a global phenomenon. This study on shared services is situated within the Higher Education Sector of Malaysia, and originated as an outcome resulting from a national project (2005 – 2007) conducted by the Ministry of Higher Education (MOHE) entitled "Knowledge, Information Communication Technology Strategic Plan (KICTSP) for Malaysian Public Higher Education"- where progress towards more collaborations via shared services was a key recommendation. The study’s primary objective was to understand the nature and potential for ICT shared services, in particular in the Malaysian HE sector; by laying a foundation in terms of definition, typologies and research agenda and deriving theoretically based conceptualisations of the potential benefits of shared services, success factors and issues of pursuing shared services. The study embarked on this objective with a literature review and pilot case study as a means to further define the context of the study, given the current under-researched status of ICT shared services and of shared services in Higher Education. This context definition phase illustrated a range of unaddressed issues; including a lack of common understanding of what shared services are, how they are formed, what objectives they full fill, who is involved etc. The study thus embarked on a further investigation of a more foundational nature with an exploratory phase that aimed to address these gaps, where a detailed archival analysis of shared services literature within the IS context was conducted to better understand shared services from an IS perspective. The IS literature on shared services was analysed in depth to report on the current status of shared services research in the IS domain; in particular definitions, objectives, stakeholders, the notion of sharing, theories used, and research methods applied were analysed, which provided a firmer base to this study’s design. The study also conducted a detailed content analysis of 36 cases (globally) of shared services implementations in the HE sector to better understand how shared services are structured within the HE sector and what is been shared. The results of the context definition phase and exploratory phase formed a firm basis in the multiple case studies phase which was designed to address the primary goals of this study (as presented above). Three case sites within the Malaysian HE sector was included in this analysis, resulting in empirically supported theoretical conceptualizations of shared services success factors, issues and benefits. A range of contributions are made through this study. First, the detailed archival analysis of shared services in Information Systems (IS) demonstrated the dearth of research on shared services within Information Systems. While the existing literature was synthesised to contribute towards an improved understanding of shared services in the IS domain, the areas that are yet under-developed and requires further exploration is identified and presented as a proposed research agenda for the field. This study also provides theoretical considerations and methodological guidelines to support the research agenda; to conduct better empirical research in this domain. A number of literatures based a priori frameworks (i.e. on the forms of sharing and shared services stakeholders etc) are derived in this phase, contributing to practice and research with early conceptualisations of critical aspects of shared services. Furthermore, the comprehensive archival analysis design presented and executed here is an exemplary approach of a systematic, pre-defined and tool-supported method to extract, analyse and report literature, and is documented as guidelines that can be applied for other similar literature analysis, with particular attention to supporting novice researchers. Second, the content analysis of 36 shared services initiatives in the Higher Education sector presented eight different types of structural arrangements for shared services, as observed in practice, and the salient dimensions along which those types can be usefully differentiated. Each of the eight structural arrangement types are defined and demonstrated through case examples, with further descriptive details and insights to what is shared and how the sharing occurs. This typology, grounded on secondary empirical evidence, can serve as a useful analytical tool for researchers investigating the shared services phenomenon further, and for practitioners considering the introduction or further development of shared services. Finally, the multiple case studies conducted in the Malaysian Higher Education sector, provided further empirical basis to instantiate the conceptual frameworks and typology derived from the prior phases and develops an empirically supported: (i) framework of issues and challenges, (ii) a preliminary theory of shared services success, and (iii) a benefits framework, for shared services in the Higher Education sector.

Monte Carlo-based diode design for correction-less small field dosimetry

Due to their small collecting volume diodes are commonly used in small field dosimetry. However the relative sensitivity of a diode increases with decreasing small field size. Conversely, small air gaps have been shown to cause a significant decrease in the sensitivity of a detector as the field size is decreased. Therefore this study uses Monte Carlo simulations to look at introducing air upstream to diodes such that they measure with a constant sensitivity across all field sizes in small field dosimetry. Varying thicknesses of air were introduced onto the upstream end of two commercial diodes (PTW 60016 photon diode and PTW 60017 electron diode), as well as a theoretical unenclosed silicon chip using field sizes as small as 5 mm × 5 mm . The metric D_(w,Q)/D_(Det,Q) used in this study represents the ratio of the dose to a point of water to the dose to the diode active volume, for a particular field size and location. The optimal thickness of air required to provide a constant sensitivity across all small field sizes was found by plotting D_(w,Q)/D_(Det,Q) as a function of introduced air gap size for various field sizes, and finding the intersection point of these plots. That is, the point at which D_(w,Q)/D_(Det,Q) was constant for all field sizes was found. The optimal thickness of air was calculated to be 3.3 mm, 1.15 mm and 0.10 mm for the photon diode, electron diode and unenclosed silicon chip respectively. The variation in these results was due to the different design of each detector. When calculated with the new diode design incorporating the upstream air gap, k_(Q_clin 〖,Q〗_msr)^(f_clin 〖,f〗_msr ) was equal to unity to within statistical uncertainty (0.5 %) for all three diodes. Cross-axis profile measurements were also improved with the new detector design. The upstream air gap could be implanted on the commercial diodes via a cap consisting of the air cavity surrounded by water equivalent material. The results for the unclosed silicon chip show that an ideal small field dosimetry diode could be created by using a silicon chip with a small amount of air above it.