Bayesian survival analysis using gene expression

This thesis developed and applied Bayesian models for the analysis of survival data. The gene expression was considered as explanatory variables within the Bayesian survival model which can be considered the new contribution in the analysis of such data. The censoring factor that is inherent of survival data has also been addressed in terms of its impact on the fitting of a finite mixture of Weibull distribution with and without covariates. To investigate this, simulation study were carried out under several censoring percentages. Censoring percentage as high as 80% is acceptable here as the work involved high dimensional data. Lastly the Bayesian model averaging approach was developed to incorporate model uncertainty in the prediction of survival.

Impact of a school-based food garden on attitudes and identification skills regarding vegetables and fruit : a 12-month intervention trial

Objective To determine changes in ability to identify specific vegetables and fruits, and attitudes towards vegetables and fruit, associated with the introduction of a school-based food garden. Design A 12-month intervention trial using a historical control (control n 132, intervention n 120), class-based, self-administered questionnaires requiring one-word answers and 3-point Likert scale responses. Setting A state primary school (grades 4 to 7) in a low socio-economic area of Brisbane, Australia. Intervention The introduction of a school-based food garden, including the funding of a teacher coordinator for 11 h/week to facilitate integration of garden activities into the curriculum. Main outcome measures Ability to identify a series of vegetables and fruits, attitudes towards vegetables and fruit. Analysis Frequency distributions for each item were generated and χ2 analyses were used to determine statistical significance. Exploratory factor analysis was employed to detect major trends in data. Results The intervention led to enhanced ability to identify individual vegetables and fruits, greater attention to origins of produce (garden-grown and fresh), changes to perceived consumption of vegetables and fruits, and enhanced confidence in preparing fruit and vegetable snacks, but decreased interest in trying new fruits. Conclusions The introduction of this school-based food garden was associated with skill and attitudinal changes conducive to enhancing vegetable and fruit consumption. The ways in which such changes might impact on dietary behaviours and intake require further analysis.

Lateral impact response and parametric studies of axially loaded square concrete filled steel tube columns

This paper presents a numerical study on the response of axially loaded slender square concrete filled steel tube (CFST) columns under low velocity lateral impact loading. A finite element analysis (FEA) model was developed using the explicit dynamic nonlinear finite element code LS -DYNA in which the strain rate effects of both steel and concrete, contact between steel tube and concrete and confinement effect provided by the steel tube for the concrete were considered. The model also benefited from a relatively recent feature of LS-DYNA for applying a pre-loading in the explicit solver. The developed numerical model was verified for its accuracy and adequacy by comparing the results with experimental results available in the literature. The verified model was then employed to conduct a parametric study to investigate the influence of axial load level, impact location, support conditions, and slenderness ratio on the response of the CFST columns. A good agreement between the numerical and experimental results was achieved. The model could reasonably predict the impact load-deflection history and deformed shape of the column at the end of the impact event. The results of the parametric study showed that whilst impact location, axial load level and slenderness ratio can have a significant effect on the peak impact force, residual lateral deflection and maximum lateral deflection, the influence of support fixity is minimal. With an increase of axial load to up to a certain level, the peak force increases; however, a further increase in the axial load causes a decrease in the peak force. Both residual lateral deflection and maximum lateral deflection increase as axial load level increases. Shifting the impact location towards the supports increases the peak force and reduces both residual and maximum lateral deflections. A rise in slenderness ratio decreases the peak force and increases the residual and maximum lateral deflections.

Does activity in computer game play have an impact on creative behavior?

This paper describes a behaviour analysis designed to measure the creative potential of computer game activities. The research approach applies a behavioural and verbal protocol to analyze the factors that influence the creative processes used by people as they play computer games from the puzzle genre. Creative components are measured by examining task motivation as well as domain-relevant and creativity-relevant skills factors. This paper focuses on how three puzzle games embody activity that might facilitate creative processes. The findings show that game playing activities significantly impact upon creative potential of computer games.

Impact of rain on daily bus ridership : a Brisbane case study

Weather is one of the most significant elements affecting transit ridership on a daily basis. Until now, there has been limited focus in the literature investigating this issue. Adverse weather conditions impact travellers in choosing travel mode and route, travel schedule, and trip making itself. This paper explores the relationship between adverse weather and transit ridership by analysing the correlation between daily bus ridership and daily precipitation for a three-year period from 2010 to 2012. It is observed from the analysis that wet weather has varying impacts on daily bus ridership. Overall, rainfall negatively affects the daily bus ridership in this region. Morning peak-hours and weekend ridership were found more sensitive to rain than entire day’s ridership and weekdays. The study also found a negative correlation between the morning-peak precipitation level and the daily bus ridership, which suggests that a small amount of morning peak-hours rain reduces a significant amount bus ridership for the whole day. The analysis also confirms that summer rain has the most significant effect on ridership compared with the other three seasons. The study findings will contribute to enhancing the fundamental understanding of traveller behaviours, particularly mode choice behaviour under adverse weather conditions.

Social media and its impact on crisis communication: Case studies of Twitter use in emergency management in Australia and New Zealand

There is a growing awareness worldwide of the significance of social media to communication in times of both natural and human-created disasters and crises. While the media have long been used as a means of broadcasting messages to communities in times of crisis – bushfires, floods, earthquakes etc. – the significance of social media in enabling many-to-many communication through ubiquitous networked computing and mobile media devices is becoming increasingly important in the fields of disaster and emergency management. This paper undertakes an analysis of the uses made of social media during two recent natural disasters: the January 2011 floods in Brisbane and South-East Queensland in Australia, and the February 2011 earthquake in Christchurch, New Zealand. It is part of a wider project being undertaken by a research team based at the Queensland University of Technology in Brisbane, Australia, that is working with the Queensland Department of Community Safety (DCS) and the EIDOS Institute, and funded by the Australian Research Council (ARC) through its Linkages program. The project combines large-scale, quantitative social media tracking and analysis techniques with qualitative cultural analysis of communication efforts by citizens and officials, to enable both emergency management authorities and news media organisations to develop, implement, and evaluate new social media strategies for emergency communication.

Fracture analysis of wind turbine main shaft

Shaft fracture at an early stage of operation is a common problem for a certain type of wind turbine. To determine the cause of shaft failure a series of experimental tests were conducted to evaluate the chemical composition and mechanical properties. A detail analysis involving macroscopic feature and microstructure analysis of the material of the shaft was also performed to have an in depth knowledge of the cause of fracture. The experimental tests and analysis results show that there are no significant differences in the material property of the main shaft when comparing it with the Standard, EN10083-3:2006. The results show that stress concentration on the shaft surface close to the critical section of the shaft due to rubbing of the annular ring and coupled with high stress concentration caused by the change of inner diameter of the main shaft are the main reasons that result in fracture of the main shaft. In addition, inhomogeneity of the main shaft micro-structure also accelerates up the fracture process of the main shaft. In addition, the theoretical calculation of equivalent stress at the end of the shaft was performed, which demonstrate that cracks can easily occur under the action of impact loads. The contribution of this paper is to provide a reference in fracture analysis of similar main shaft of wind turbines.

Geographic remoteness, area-level socioeconomic disadvantage and inequalities in colorectal cancer survival in Queensland : a multilevel analysis

Background To explore the impact of geographical remoteness and area-level socioeconomic disadvantage on colorectal cancer (CRC) survival. Methods Multilevel logistic regression and Markov chain Monte Carlo simulations were used to analyze geographical variations in five-year all-cause and CRC-specific survival across 478 regions in Queensland Australia for 22,727 CRC cases aged 20–84 years diagnosed from 1997–2007. Results Area-level disadvantage and geographic remoteness were independently associated with CRC survival. After full multivariate adjustment (both levels), patients from remote (odds Ratio [OR]: 1.24, 95%CrI: 1.07-1.42) and more disadvantaged quintiles (OR = 1.12, 1.15, 1.20, 1.23 for Quintiles 4, 3, 2 and 1 respectively) had lower CRC-specific survival than major cities and least disadvantaged areas. Similar associations were found for all-cause survival. Area disadvantage accounted for a substantial amount of the all-cause variation between areas. Conclusions We have demonstrated that the area-level inequalities in survival of colorectal cancer patients cannot be explained by the measured individual-level characteristics of the patients or their cancer and remain after adjusting for cancer stage. Further research is urgently needed to clarify the factors that underlie the survival differences, including the importance of geographical differences in clinical management of CRC.

The impact of the clean development mechanism (CDM) on the cost price of wind power electricity : a China study

As a renewable energy source, wind power is playing an increasingly important role in China’s electricity supply. Meanwhile, China is also the world’s largest market for Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) wind power projects. Based on the data of 27 wind power projects of Inner Mongolia registered with the Executive Board of the United Nations (EB) in 2010, this paper constructs a financial model of Net Present Value (NPV) to analyze the cost of wind power electricity. A sensitivity analysis is then conducted to examine the impact of different variables with and without Certified Emission Reduction (CER) income brought about by the CDM. It is concluded that the CDM, along with static investment and annual wind electricity production, is one of the most significant factors in promoting the development of wind power in China. Additionally, wind power is envisaged as a practical proposition for competing with thermal power if the appropriate actions identified in the paper are made.

The need for legislative reform of the privity doctrine in commercial contracts in Malaysia : a comparative analysis

This thesis commences with the proposition that the first limb of the doctrine of privity causes injustice to third party beneficiaries in Malaysia, particularly in commercial contracts. The doctrine of privity has been the subject of criticism by the judiciary and academic commentators in common law jurisdictions, mainly directed at the first limb of the doctrine, whereby only parties to a contract can sue and be sued. The first limb prevents a third party from enforcing benefits conferred on them by those contracts thereby resulting in third parties suffering loss and injustice to those parties. In several common law countries, such as England, Australia, New Zealand and Singapore, legislative reform of the doctrine has occurred. The legislative reform has abrogated to a significant extent the doctrine of privity in commercial contracts. Malaysia is a common law country, where the doctrine of privity is still applied to contracts. An analysis of Malaysian case law demonstrates that the most affected third party beneficiaries are those seeking to enforce insurance and construction contracts. While a small number of other third parties to commercial contracts, such as agreements to pay for work done, sale and purchase agreements and tenancy agreements are also affected, the detriment is not as significant. As a consequence, this thesis focuses primarily on the impact of the doctrine of privity on commercial contracts in the areas of insurance and construction in Malaysia The thesis aims to recommend appropriate reforms to address the injustices arising from the privity doctrine for third parties seeking to obtain the benefit of insurance and construction contracts, which may also benefit third parties to other types of commercial contracts. While the Malaysian insurance, consumer protection, negotiable instruments and agency laws allow third party beneficiaries to enforce benefits in contracts, the rights are found to be inadequate. As not all third parties seeking to enforce an insurance or construction contract can rely upon the legislation, the injustice arising from the doctrine of privity remains and needs to be addressed. To achieve this aim, a comparative analysis of the rights of third party beneficiaries under insurance and construction contracts in Malaysia, Australia and England is undertaken. The results of the analysis are used to identify appropriate elements for a legislative framework guided by the three essential criteria for effective law reform developed in the thesis. The three criteria are certainty, public interest and justice. The thesis recommends first the enactment of general legislation applicable to all commercial contracts including insurance contracts. Secondly, the thesis recommends specific targeted legislation to address the injustice faced by third party beneficiaries in construction contracts.

Malnutrition and its impact on cost of hospitalization, length of stay, readmission and 3-year mortality

Background & aims The confounding effect of disease on the outcomes of malnutrition using diagnosis-related groups (DRG) has never been studied in a multidisciplinary setting. This study aims to determine the impact of malnutrition on hospitalisation outcomes, controlling for DRG. Methods Subjective Global Assessment was used to assess the nutritional status of 818 patients within 48 hours of admission. Prospective data were collected on cost of hospitalisation, length of stay (LOS), readmission and mortality up to 3 years post-discharged using National Death Register data. Mixed model analysis and conditional logistic regression matching by DRG were carried out to evaluate the association between nutritional status and outcomes, with the results adjusted for gender, age and race. Results Malnourished patients (29%) had longer hospital stays (6.9±7.3 days vs. 4.6±5.6 days, p<0.001) and were more likely to be readmitted within 15 days (adjusted relative risk = 1.9, 95%CI 1.1–3.2, p=0.025). Within a DRG, the mean difference between actual cost of hospitalisation and the average cost for malnourished patients was greater than well-nourished patients (p=0.014). Mortality was higher in malnourished patients at 1 year (34% vs. 4.1 %), 2 years (42.6% vs. 6.7%) and 3 years (48.5% vs. 9.9%); p<0.001 for all. Overall, malnutrition was a significant predictor of mortality (adjusted hazard ratio = 4.4, 95%CI 3.3-6.0, p<0.001). Conclusions Malnutrition was evident in up to one third of inpatients and led to poor hospitalisation outcomes, even after matching for DRG. Strategies to prevent and treat malnutrition in the hospital and post-discharge are needed.

Rural self-reliance: the impact on health experiences of people living with type II diabetes in rural Queensland, Australia

Objective: The objective of the study was to explore whether and how rural culture influences type II diabetes management and to better understand the social processes that rural people construct in coping with diabetes and its complications. In particular, the study aimed to analyse the interface and interactions between rural people with type II diabetes and the Australian health care system, and to develop a theoretical understanding that reflects constructs that may be more broadly applicable. Methods: The study applied constructivist grounded theory methods within an interpretive interactionist framework. Data from 39 semi-structured interviews with rural and urban type II diabetes patients and a mix of rural health care providers were analysed to develop a theoretical understanding of the social processes that define diabetes management in that context. Results: The analysis suggests that although type II diabetes imposes limitations that require adjustment and adaptation, these processes are actively negotiated by rural people within the environmental context to fit the salient social understandings of autonomy and self-reliance. Thus, people normalized self-reliant diabetes management behaviours because this was congruent with the rural culture. Factors that informed the actions of normalization were relationships between participants and health care professionals, support, and access to individual resources. Conclusions: The findings point to ways in which rural self-reliance is conceived as the primary strategy of diabetes management. People face the paradox of engaging with a health care system that at the same time maximizes individual responsibility for health and minimizes the social support by which individuals manage the condition. The emphasis on self-reliance gives some legitimacy to a lack of prevention and chronic care services. Success of diabetes management behaviours is, however, contingent on relative resources. Where there is good primary care, there develops a number of downstream effects including a sense of empowerment to manage difficult rural environmental circumstances. This has particular bearing on health outcomes for people with fewer resources.

Nondiscretionary residential water use : the impact of habits and water-efficient technologies

Several studies published in the last few decades have demonstrated a low price-elasticity for residential water use. In particular, it has been shown that there is a quantity of water demanded that remains constant regardless of prices and other economic factors. In this research, we characterise residential water demand based on a Stone-Geary utility function. This specification is not only theory-compatible but can also explicitly model a minimum level of consumption not dependent on prices or income. This is described as minimum threshold or nondiscretionary water use. Additionally, the Stone-Geary framework is used to model the subsistence level of water consumption that is dependent on the temporal evolution of consumer habits and stock of physical capital. The main aim of this study is to analyse the impact of water-saving habits and water-efficient technologies on residential water demand, while additionally focusing attention on nondiscretionary uses. This is informed by an empirical application using data from a survey conducted among residents of Brisbane City Council, Australia. The results will be especially useful in the design of water tariffs and other water-saving policies.

The impact of mining and smelting activities on property values : a study of Mount Isa city, Queensland, Australia

Much publicity has been given to the problem of high levels of environmental contaminants, most notably high blood lead concentration levels among children in the city of Mount Isa because of mining and smelting activities. The health impacts from mining-related pollutants are now well documented. This includes published research being discussed in an editorial of the Medical Journal of Australia (see Munksgaard et al. 2010). On the other hand, negative impacts on property prices, although mentioned, have not been examined to date. This study rectifies this research gap. This study uses a hedonic property price approach to examine the impact of mining- and smelting-related pollution on nearby property prices. The hypothesis is that those properties closer to the lead and copper smelters have lower property (house) prices than those farther away. The results of the study show that the marginal willingness to pay to be farther from the pollution source is AUS $13 947 per kilometre within the 4 km radius selected. The study has several policy implications, which are discussed briefly. We used ordinary least squares, geographically weighted regression, spatial error and spatial autoregressive or spatial lag models for this analysis.

A theory of process modelling impact

Process modelling – the design and use of graphical documentations of an organisation’s business processes – is a key method to document and use information about business processes. Still, despite current interest in process modelling, this research area faces essential challenges. Key unanswered questions concern the impact of process modelling in organisational practice, and the mechanisms through which impacts are developed. To answer these questions and to provide a better understanding of process modelling impact, I turn to the concept of affordances. Affordances describe the possibilities for goal-oriented action that technical objects offer to specified users. This notion has received growing attention from IS researchers. I report on my efforts to further develop the IS discipline’s understanding of affordances and impacts from informational objects, such as process models used by analysts for purposes of information systems analysis and design. Specifically, I seek to extend existing theory on the emergence and actualisation of affordances. I develop a research model that describes the process by which affordances are perceived and actualised and explain their dependence on available information and actualisation effort. I present my plans for operationalising and testing this research model empirically, and provide details about my design of a full-cycle, mixed methods study currently in progress.