I. Impact spallation experiments: fracture patterns and spall velocities. II. Craters in carbonate rocks: an electron paramagnetic resonance analysis of shock damage

This work is divided into two independent papers.

PAPER 1.

Spall velocities were measured for nine experimental impacts into San Marcos gabbro targets. Impact velocities ranged from 1 to 6.5 km/sec. Projectiles were iron, aluminum, lead, and basalt of varying sizes. The projectile masses ranged from a 4 g lead bullet to a 0.04 g aluminum sphere. The velocities of fragments were measured from high-speed films taken of the events. The maximum spall velocity observed was 30 m/sec, or 0.56 percent of the 5.4 km/sec impact velocity. The measured velocities were compared to the spall velocities predicted by the spallation model of Melosh (1984). The compatibility between the spallation model for large planetary impacts and the results of these small scale experiments are considered in detail.

The targets were also bisected to observe the pattern of internal fractures. A series of fractures were observed, whose location coincided with the boundary between rock subjected to the peak shock compression and a theoretical "near surface zone" predicted by the spallation model. Thus, between this boundary and the free surface, the target material should receive reduced levels of compressive stress as compared to the more highly shocked region below.

PAPER 2.

Carbonate samples from the nuclear explosion crater, OAK, and a terrestrial impact crater, Meteor Crater, were analyzed for shock damage using electron para- magnetic resonance, EPR. The first series of samples for OAK Crater were obtained from six boreholes within the crater, and the second series were ejecta samples recovered from the crater floor. The degree of shock damage in the carbonate material was assessed by comparing the sample spectra to spectra of Solenhofen limestone, which had been shocked to known pressures.

The results of the OAK borehole analysis have identified a thin zone of highly shocked carbonate material underneath the crater floor. This zone has a maximum depth of approximately 200 ft below sea floor at the ground zero borehole and decreases in depth towards the crater rim. A layer of highly shocked material is also found on the surface in the vicinity of the reference bolehole, located outside the crater. This material could represent a fallout layer. The ejecta samples have experienced a range of shock pressures.

It was also demonstrated that the EPR technique is feasible for the study of terrestrial impact craters formed in carbonate bedrock. The results for the Meteor Crater analysis suggest a slight degree of shock damage present in the β member of the Kaibab Formation exposed in the crater walls.

Investigation of hypervelocity impact phenomena using real-time concurrent diagnostics

Hypervelocity impact of meteoroids and orbital debris poses a serious and growing threat to spacecraft. To study hypervelocity impact phenomena, a comprehensive ensemble of real-time concurrently operated diagnostics has been developed and implemented in the Small Particle Hypervelocity Impact Range (SPHIR) facility. This suite of simultaneously operated instrumentation provides multiple complementary measurements that facilitate the characterization of many impact phenomena in a single experiment. The investigation of hypervelocity impact phenomena described in this work focuses on normal impacts of 1.8 mm nylon 6/6 cylinder projectiles and variable thickness aluminum targets. The SPHIR facility two-stage light-gas gun is capable of routinely launching 5.5 mg nylon impactors to speeds of 5 to 7 km/s. Refinement of legacy SPHIR operation procedures and the investigation of first-stage pressure have improved the velocity performance of the facility, resulting in an increase in average impact velocity of at least 0.57 km/s. Results for the perforation area indicate the considered range of target thicknesses represent multiple regimes describing the non-monotonic scaling of target perforation with decreasing target thickness. The laser side-lighting (LSL) system has been developed to provide ultra-high-speed shadowgraph images of the impact event. This novel optical technique is demonstrated to characterize the propagation velocity and two-dimensional optical density of impact-generated debris clouds. Additionally, a debris capture system is located behind the target during every experiment to provide complementary information regarding the trajectory distribution and penetration depth of individual debris particles. The utilization of a coherent, collimated illumination source in the LSL system facilitates the simultaneous measurement of impact phenomena with near-IR and UV-vis spectrograph systems. Comparison of LSL images to concurrent IR results indicates two distinctly different phenomena. A high-speed, pressure-dependent IR-emitting cloud is observed in experiments to expand at velocities much higher than the debris and ejecta phenomena observed using the LSL system. In double-plate target configurations, this phenomena is observed to interact with the rear-wall several micro-seconds before the subsequent arrival of the debris cloud. Additionally, dimensional analysis presented by Whitham for blast waves is shown to describe the pressure-dependent radial expansion of the observed IR-emitting phenomena. Although this work focuses on a single hypervelocity impact configuration, the diagnostic capabilities and techniques described can be used with a wide variety of impactors, materials, and geometries to investigate any number of engineering and scientific problems.

Statistical and econometric analysis of the treatment of HIV/AIDS

The epidemic of HIV/AIDS in the United States is constantly changing and evolving, starting from patient zero to now an estimated 650,000 to 900,000 Americans infected. The nature and course of HIV changed dramatically with the introduction of antiretrovirals. This discourse examines many different facets of HIV from the beginning where there wasn't any treatment for HIV until the present era of highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART). By utilizing statistical analysis of clinical data, this paper examines where we were, where we are and projections as to where treatment of HIV/AIDS is headed.

Chapter Two describes the datasets that were used for the analyses. The primary database utilized was collected by myself from an outpatient HIV clinic. The data included dates from 1984 until the present. The second database was from the Multicenter AIDS Cohort Study (MACS) public dataset. The data from the MACS cover the time between 1984 and October 1992. Comparisons are made between both datasets.

Chapter Three discusses where we were. Before the first anti-HIV drugs (called antiretrovirals) were approved, there was no treatment to slow the progression of HIV. The first generation of antiretrovirals, reverse transcriptase inhibitors such as AZT (zidovudine), DDI (didanosine), DDC (zalcitabine), and D4T (stavudine) provided the first treatment for HIV. The first clinical trials showed that these antiretrovirals had a significant impact on increasing patient survival. The trials also showed that patients on these drugs had increased CD4+ T cell counts. Chapter Three examines the distributions of CD4 T cell counts. The results show that the estimated distributions of CD4 T cell counts are distinctly non-Gaussian. Thus distributional assumptions regarding CD4 T cell counts must be taken, into account when performing analyses with this marker. The results also show the estimated CD4 T cell distributions for each disease stage: asymptomatic, symptomatic and AIDS are non-Gaussian. Interestingly, the distribution of CD4 T cell counts for the asymptomatic period is significantly below that of the CD4 T cell distribution for the uninfected population suggesting that even in patients with no outward symptoms of HIV infection, there exists high levels of immunosuppression.

Chapter Four discusses where we are at present. HIV quickly grew resistant to reverse transcriptase inhibitors which were given sequentially as mono or dual therapy. As resistance grew, the positive effects of the reverse transcriptase inhibitors on CD4 T cell counts and survival dissipated. As the old era faded a new era characterized by a new class of drugs and new technology changed the way that we treat HIV-infected patients. Viral load assays were able to quantify the levels of HIV RNA in the blood. By quantifying the viral load, one now had a faster, more direct way to test antiretroviral regimen efficacy. Protease inhibitors, which attacked a different region of HIV than reverse transcriptase inhibitors, when used in combination with other antiretroviral agents were found to dramatically and significantly reduce the HIV RNA levels in the blood. Patients also experienced significant increases in CD4 T cell counts. For the first time in the epidemic, there was hope. It was hypothesized that with HAART, viral levels could be kept so low that the immune system as measured by CD4 T cell counts would be able to recover. If these viral levels could be kept low enough, it would be possible for the immune system to eradicate the virus. The hypothesis of immune reconstitution, that is bringing CD4 T cell counts up to levels seen in uninfected patients, is tested in Chapter Four. It was found that for these patients, there was not enough of a CD4 T cell increase to be consistent with the hypothesis of immune reconstitution.

In Chapter Five, the effectiveness of long-term HAART is analyzed. Survival analysis was conducted on 213 patients on long-term HAART. The primary endpoint was presence of an AIDS defining illness. A high level of clinical failure, or progression to an endpoint, was found.

Chapter Six yields insights into where we are going. New technology such as viral genotypic testing, that looks at the genetic structure of HIV and determines where mutations have occurred, has shown that HIV is capable of producing resistance mutations that confer multiple drug resistance. This section looks at resistance issues and speculates, ceterus parabis, where the state of HIV is going. This section first addresses viral genotype and the correlates of viral load and disease progression. A second analysis looks at patients who have failed their primary attempts at HAART and subsequent salvage therapy. It was found that salvage regimens, efforts to control viral replication through the administration of different combinations of antiretrovirals, were not effective in 90 percent of the population in controlling viral replication. Thus, primary attempts at therapy offer the best change of viral suppression and delay of disease progression. Documentation of transmission of drug-resistant virus suggests that the public health crisis of HIV is far from over. Drug resistant HIV can sustain the epidemic and hamper our efforts to treat HIV infection. The data presented suggest that the decrease in the morbidity and mortality due to HIV/AIDS is transient. Deaths due to HIV will increase and public health officials must prepare for this eventuality unless new treatments become available. These results also underscore the importance of the vaccine effort.

The final chapter looks at the economic issues related to HIV. The direct and indirect costs of treating HIV/AIDS are very high. For the first time in the epidemic, there exists treatment that can actually slow disease progression. The direct costs for HAART are estimated. It is estimated that the direct lifetime costs for treating each HIV infected patient with HAART is between $353,000 to $598,000 depending on how long HAART prolongs life. If one looks at the incremental cost per year of life saved it is only $101,000. This is comparable with the incremental costs per year of life saved from coronary artery bypass surgery.

Policy makers need to be aware that although HAART can delay disease progression, it is not a cure and HIV is not over. The results presented here suggest that the decreases in the morbidity and mortality due to HIV are transient. Policymakers need to be prepared for the eventual increase in AIDS incidence and mortality. Costs associated with HIV/AIDS are also projected to increase. The cost savings seen recently have been from the dramatic decreases in the incidence of AIDS defining opportunistic infections. As patients who have been on HAART the longest start to progress to AIDS, policymakers and insurance companies will find that the cost of treating HIV/AIDS will increase.

Interpretation of lunar topography : impact cratering and surface roughness

This work seeks to understand past and present surface conditions on the Moon using two different but complementary approaches: topographic analysis using high-resolution elevation data from recent spacecraft missions and forward modeling of the dominant agent of lunar surface modification, impact cratering. The first investigation focuses on global surface roughness of the Moon, using a variety of statistical parameters to explore slopes at different scales and their relation to competing geological processes. We find that highlands topography behaves as a nearly self-similar fractal system on scales of order 100 meters, and there is a distinct change in this behavior above and below approximately 1 km. Chapter 2 focuses this analysis on two localized regions: the lunar south pole, including Shackleton crater, and the large mare-filled basins on the nearside of the Moon. In particular, we find that differential slope, a statistical measure of roughness related to the curvature of a topographic profile, is extremely useful in distinguishing between geologic units. Chapter 3 introduces a numerical model that simulates a cratered terrain by emplacing features of characteristic shape geometrically, allowing for tracking of both the topography and surviving rim fragments over time. The power spectral density of cratered terrains is estimated numerically from model results and benchmarked against a 1-dimensional analytic model. The power spectral slope is observed to vary predictably with the size-frequency distribution of craters, as well as the crater shape. The final chapter employs the rim-tracking feature of the cratered terrain model to analyze the evolving size-frequency distribution of craters under different criteria for identifying "visible" craters from surviving rim fragments. A geometric bias exists that systematically over counts large or small craters, depending on the rim fraction required to count a given feature as either visible or erased.