Best practices in prediction for decision-making : lessons from the atmospheric and earth sciences

Predictions that result from scientific research hold great appeal for decision-makers who are grappling with complex and controversial environmental issues, by promising to enhance their ability to determine a need for and outcomes of alternative decisions. A problem exists in that decision-makers and scientists in the public and private sectors solicit, produce, and use such predictions with little understanding of their accuracy or utility, and often without systematic evaluation or mechanisms of accountability. In order to contribute to a more effective role for ecological science in support of decision-making, this paper discusses three ``best practices'' for quantitative ecosystem modeling and prediction gleaned from research on modeling, prediction, and decision-making in the atmospheric and earth sciences. The lessons are distilled from a series of case studies and placed into the specific context of examples from ecological science.

Examination of pencil beam predictions of small-field dose using dosimetry film and Monte Carlo simulations

The iPlan treatment planning sys-tem uses a pencil beam algorithm, with density cor-rections, to predict the doses delivered by very small (stereotactic) radiotherapy fields. This study tests the accuracy of dose predictions made by iPlan, for small-field treatments delivered to a planar solid wa-ter phantom and to heterogeneous human tissue using the BrainLAB m3 micro-multileaf collimator.

In vivo evaluation of an ultra-thin polycaprolactone film as a wound dressing

The use of ultra-thin films as dressings for cutaneous wounds could prove advantageous in terms of better conformity to wound topography and improved vapour transmission. For this purpose, ultra-thin poly(epsilon-caprolactone) (PCL) films of 5-15 microm thickness were fabricated via a biaxial stretching technique. To evaluate their in vivo biocompatibility and feasibility as an external wound dressing, PCL films were applied over full and partial-thickness wounds in rat and pig models. Different groups of PCL films were used: untreated, NaOH-treated, untreated with fibrin, NaOH-treated with perforations, and NaOH-treated with fibrin and S-nitrosoglutathione. Wounds with no external dressings were used as controls. Wound contraction rate, histology and biomechanical analyses were carried out. Wounds re-epithelialized completely at a comparable rate. Formation of a neo-dermal layer and re-epithelialization were observed in all the wounds. A lower level of fibrosis was observed when PCL films were used, compared to the control wounds. Ultimate tensile strength of the regenerated tissue in rats reached 50-60% of that in native rat skin. Results indicated that biaxially-stretched PCL films did not induce inflammatory reactions when used in vivo as a wound dressing and supported the normal wound healing process in full and partial-thickness wounds.

Predicting dry eye using non-invasive techniques of tear film surface assessment

PURPOSE. To measure tear film surface quality in healthy and dry eye subjects using three noninvasive techniques of tear film quality assessment and to establish the ability of these noninvasive techniques to predict dry eye. METHODS. Thirty four subjects participated in the study, and were classified as dry eye or normal, based on standard clinical assessments. Three non-invasive techniques were applied for measurement of tear film surface quality: dynamic-area high-speed videokeratoscopy (HSV), wavefront sensing (DWS) and lateral shearing interferometry (LSI). The measurements were performed in both natural blinking conditions (NBC) and in suppressed blinking conditions (SBC). RESULTS. In order to investigate the capability of each method to discriminate dry eye subjects from normal subjects, the receiver operating curve (ROC) was calculated and then the area under the curve (AUC) was extracted. The best result was obtained for the LSI technique (AUC=0.80 in SBC and AUC=0.73 in NBC), which was followed by HSV (AUC=0.72 in SBC and AUC=0.71 in NBC). The best result for DWS was AUC=0.64 obtained for changes in vertical coma in suppressed blinking conditions, while for normal blinking conditions the results were poorer. CONCLUSIONS. Non-invasive techniques of tear film surface assessment can be used for predicting dry eye and this can be achieved in natural blinking as well as suppressed blinking conditions. In this study, LSI showed the best detection performance, closely followed by the dynamic-area HSV. The wavefront sensing technique was less powerful, particularly in natural blinking conditions.

Lateral shearing interferometry, dynamic wavefront sensing, and high-speed videokeratoscopy for noninvasive assessment of tear film surface characteristics : a comparitive study

There are several noninvasive techniques for assessing the kinetics of tear film, but no comparative studies have been conducted to evaluate their efficacies. Our aim is to test and compare techniques based on high-speed videokeratoscopy (HSV), dynamic wavefront sensing (DWS), and lateral shearing interferometry (LSI). Algorithms are developed to estimate the tear film build-up time TBLD, and the average tear film surface quality in the stable phase of the interblink interval TFSQAv. Moderate but significant correlations are found between TBLD measured with LSI and DWS based on vertical coma (Pearson's r2=0.34, p<0.01) and higher order rms (r2=0.31, p<0.01), as well as between TFSQAv measured with LSI and HSV (r2=0.35, p<0.01), and between LSI and DWS based on the rms fit error (r2=0.40, p<0.01). No significant correlation is found between HSV and DWS. All three techniques estimate tear film build-up time to be below 2.5 sec, and they achieve a remarkably close median value of 0.7 sec. HSV appears to be the most precise method for measuring tear film surface quality. LSI appears to be the most sensitive method for analyzing tear film build-up.

Treating an unhealthy organisational culture : the implications of the Bundaberg Hospital inquiry for managerial ethical decision making

This paper explores the interplay between individual values, espoused organisational values and the values of the organisational culture in practice in light of a recent Royal Commission in Queensland, Australia, which highlighted systematic failures in patient care. The lack of congruence among values at these levels impacts upon the ethical decision making of health managers. The presence of institutional ethics regimes such as the Public Sector Ethics Act 1994 (Qld) and agency codes of conduct are not sufficient to counteract the negative influence of informal codes of practice that undermine espoused organisational values and community standards. The ethical decision-making capacity of health care managers remains at the front line in the battle against unethical and unprofessional practice. What is known about the topic? Value congruence theory focusses on the conflicts between individual and organisational values. Congruence between individual values, espoused values and values expressed in everyday practice can only be achieved by ensuring that such shared values are an ever-present factor in managerial decision making. What does this paper add? The importance of value congruence in building and sustaining a healthy organisational culture is confirmed by the evidence presented in the Bundaberg Hospital Inquiry. The presence of strong individual values among staff and strong espoused values in line with community expectations and backed up by legislation and ethics regimes were not, in themselves, sufficient to ensure a healthy organisational culture and prevent unethical, and possibly illegal, behaviour. What are the implications for practitioners? Managers must incorporate ethics in decision making to establish and maintain the nexus between individual and organisational values that is a vital component of a healthy organisational culture.

Working time arrangements and recreation : making time for weekends when working long hours

Work time spread across the entire week, rather than the conventional five day working week, has meant that workers are now less able to utilise longer stretches of recreation time especially in gaining access to a full two-day break over a weekend. This paper explores the issues contributing to workers' acquisition of longer recreation time. It seeks to determine the effects of this acquisition on the quality of working and non-working time for the employee through a study of work-life balance in the construction industry. It finds that weekends are more important to achieving work-life balance than shorter days over a six-day week when working long hours. Further, 'personal time' is a key element in achieving satisfactory work-life balance for employees, and this type of 'time' is often forgone in trying to integrate the necessary and desired non-work activities in the shorter time available to workers.

Geographical information systems : an effective planning and decision-making platform for community health coalitions in Australia

The development of locally-based healthcare initiatives, such as community health coalitions that focus on capacity building programs and multi-faceted responses to long-term health problems, have become an increasingly important part of the public health landscape. As a result of their complexity and the level of investment, it has become necessary to develop innovative ways to help manage these new healthcare approaches. Geographical Information Systems (GIS) have been suggested as one of the innovative approaches that will allow community health coalitions to better manage and plan their activities. The focus of this paper is to provide a commentary on the use of GIS as a tool for community coalitions and discuss some of the potential benefits and issues surrounding the development of these tools.

Making space and place for the knowledge economy : knowledge-based development of Australian cities

The impact of what has been broadly labelled the knowledge economy has been such that, even in the absence of precise measurement, it is the undoubted dynamo of today’s global market, and an essential part of any global city. The socio-economic importance of knowledge production in a knowledge economy is clear, and it is an emerging social phenomenon and research agenda in geographical studies. Knowledge production, and where, how and by whom it is produced, is an urban phenomenon that is poorly understood in an era of strong urbanisation. This paper focuses on knowledge community precincts as the catalytic magnet infrastructures impacting on knowledge production in cities. The paper discusses the increasing importance of knowledge-based urban development within the paradigm of the knowledge economy, and the role of knowledge community precincts as instruments to seed the foundation of knowledge production in cities. This paper explores the knowledge based urban development, and particularly knowledge community precinct development, potentials of Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane, and benchmarks this against that of Boston, Massachusetts.

Patterns, heuristics for architectural design support: making use of evolutionary modelling in design

Software used by architectural and industrial designers – has moved from becoming a tool for drafting, towards use in verification, simulation, project management and project sharing remotely. In more advanced models, parameters for the designed object can be adjusted so a family of variations can be produced rapidly. With advances in computer aided design technology, numerous design options can now be generated and analyzed in real time. However the use of digital tools to support design as an activity is still at an early stage and has largely been limited in functionality with regard to the design process. To date, major CAD vendors have not developed an integrated tool that is able to both leverage specialized design knowledge from various discipline domains (known as expert knowledge systems) and support the creation of design alternatives that satisfy different forms of constraints. We propose that evolutionary computing and machine learning be linked with parametric design techniques to record and respond to a designer’s own way of working and design history. It is expected that this will lead to results that impact on future work on design support systems-(ergonomics and interface) as well as implicit constraint and problem definition for problems that are difficult to quantify.

Making space and place for knowledge production : socio-spatial development of knowledge community precincts

In the knowledge era the importance of making space and place for knowledge production is clearly understood worldwide by many city administrations that are keen on restructuring their cities as highly competitive and creative places. Consequently, knowledge-based urban development and socio-spatial development of knowledge community precincts have taken their places among the emerging agendas of the urban planning and development practice. This chapter explores these emerging issues and scrutinizes the development of knowledge community precincts that have important economic, social and cultural dimensions on the formation of competitive and creative urban regions. The chapter also sheds light on the new challenges for planning discipline, and discusses the need for and some specifics of a new planning paradigm suitable for dealing with 21st Century’s socio-economic development and urbanization problems.

Board members’ contribution to strategic decision-making in small firms

This article explores how the boards of small firms actually undertake to perform strategic tasks. Board strategic involvement has seldom been investigated in the context of small firms. We seek to make a contribution by investigating antecedents of board strategic involvement. The antecedents are “board working style” and “board quality attributes”, which go beyond the board composition features of board size, CEO duality, the ratio of non-executive to executive directors and ownership. Hypotheses were tested on a sample of 497 Norwegian firms (from 5 to 30 employees). Our results show that board working style and board quality attributes rather than board composition features enhance board strategic involvement. Moreover, board quality attributes outperform board working style in fostering board strategic involvement

Development of a PDLLA-based stereolithography resin for making tissue engineering scaffolds

The use of porous structures as tissue engineering scaffolds imposes high demands on the pore architecture. Stereolithography is a rapid prototyping method based on photo-polymerisation, that can be utilised to make 3D constructs with high spatial control. In this study, biodegradable resins were developed that can find application in stereolithography. Poly(D,L-lactide) (PDLLA) oligomers were synthesised and functionalised with methacrylate end-groups. By mixing the resulting macromers with a diluent, photo-initiator and inhibitor, lowviscosity resins were obtained that were photocrosslinked to yield stiff and strong degradable poly(lactide) networks. Also, porous scaffolds were fabricated on a stereolithography apparatus (SLA) from a nondegradable resin.