223 resultados para load forecasting
Resumo:
The effects of suspension parameters and driving conditions on dynamic load-sharing of longitudinal-connected air suspensions of a tri-axle semi-trailer are investigated in this study. A novel nonlinear model of a multi-axle semi-trailer with longitudinal-connected air suspensions is formulated based on fluid mechanics and thermodynamics and validated through test results. The effects of road surface conditions, driving speeds, air line inside diameter and connector inside diameter on dynamic load-sharing capability of the semi-trailer were analyzed in terms of load-sharing criteria. Simulation results indicate that, when larger air lines and connectors are employed, the DLSC (Dynamic Load-Sharing Coefficient) optimization ratio reaches its peak value when the road roughness is medium. The optimization ratio fluctuates in a complex manner as driving speed increases. The results also indicate that if the air line inside diameter is always assumed to be larger than the connector inside diameter, the influence of air line inside diameter on load-sharing is more significant than that of the connector inside diameter. The proposed approach can be used for further study of the influence of additional factors (such as vehicle load, static absolute air pressure and static height of air spring) on load-sharing and the control methods for multi-axle air suspensions with longitudinal air line.
Resumo:
The occurrence of extreme movements in the spot price of electricity represents a significant source of risk to retailers. A range of approaches have been considered with respect to modelling electricity prices; these models, however, have relied on time-series approaches, which typically use restrictive decay schemes placing greater weight on more recent observations. This study develops an alternative, semi-parametric method for forecasting, which uses state-dependent weights derived from a kernel function. The forecasts that are obtained using this method are accurate and therefore potentially useful to electricity retailers in terms of risk management.
Resumo:
This paper provides details on comparative testing of axle-to-chassis forces of two heavy vehicles (HVs) based on an experimental programme carried out in 2007. Dynamic forces at the air springs were measured against speed and roughness values for the test roads used. One goal of that programme was to determine whether dynamic axle-to-chassis forces could be reduced by using larger-than-standard diameter longitudinal air lines. This paper presents a portion of the methodology, analysis and results from that programme. Two analytical techniques and their results are presented. The first uses correlation coefficients of the forces between air springs and the second is a student’s t-test. These were used to determine the causality surrounding improved dynamic load sharing between heavy vehicle air springs with larger air lines installed longitudinally compared with the standard sized air lines installed on the majority of air-sprung heavy vehicles.
Resumo:
Articular cartilage is the load-bearing tissue that consists of proteoglycan macromolecules entrapped between collagen fibrils in a three-dimensional architecture. To date, the drudgery of searching for mathematical models to represent the biomechanics of such a system continues without providing a fitting description of its functional response to load at micro-scale level. We believe that the major complication arose when cartilage was first envisaged as a multiphasic model with distinguishable components and that quantifying those and searching for the laws that govern their interaction is inadequate. To the thesis of this paper, cartilage as a bulk is as much continuum as is the response of its components to the external stimuli. For this reason, we framed the fundamental question as to what would be the mechano-structural functionality of such a system in the total absence of one of its key constituents-proteoglycans. To answer this, hydrated normal and proteoglycan depleted samples were tested under confined compression while finite element models were reproduced, for the first time, based on the structural microarchitecture of the cross-sectional profile of the matrices. These micro-porous in silico models served as virtual transducers to produce an internal noninvasive probing mechanism beyond experimental capabilities to render the matrices micromechanics and several others properties like permeability, orientation etc. The results demonstrated that load transfer was closely related to the microarchitecture of the hyperelastic models that represent solid skeleton stress and fluid response based on the state of the collagen network with and without the swollen proteoglycans. In other words, the stress gradient during deformation was a function of the structural pattern of the network and acted in concert with the position-dependent compositional state of the matrix. This reveals that the interaction between indistinguishable components in real cartilage is superimposed by its microarchitectural state which directly influences macromechanical behavior.
Resumo:
This paper investigates: - correlation between transit route passenger loading and travel distance - its implications on quality of service (QoS) and resource productivity. It uses Automatic Fare Collection (AFC) data across a weekday on a premium bus line in Brisbane, Australia. A composite load-distance factor is proposed as a new measure for profiling transit route on-board passenger comfort QoS. Understanding these measures and their correlation is important for planning, design, and operational activities.
Resumo:
This paper investigates quality of service and resource productivity implications of transit route passenger loading and travel distance. Weekday Automatic Fare Collection data for a premium radial bus route in Brisbane, Australia, is used to investigate correlation between load factor and distance factor. Relationships between boardings and transit work indicate that distance factor generally increases with load factor. Time series analysis is then presented by examining each direction on an hour by hour basis. Inbound correlation is medium to strong across the entire span of service and strong for daytime services up to 19:30, while outbound correlation is strong across the entire span. Passengers tend to be making longer distance, peak direction commuter trips under the least comfortable conditions under stretched peak schedules than off-peak. Therefore productivity gains may be possible by adjusting fleet utilization during off-peak times. Weekday profiles by direction are established for a composite load-distance factor. A threshold corresponding to standing passengers on the Maximum Load Segment reveals that on-board loading and travel distance combined are more severe during the morning inbound peak than evening outbound peak, although the sharpness of the former suggests that encouraging shoulder peak travel during the morning would be more effective than evening peak. Further research suggested includes: consideration of travel duration factor, relating noise within hour to Peak Hour Factor, profiling load-distance factor across a range of case studies, and relating load-distance factor threshold to line length.
Resumo:
BACKGROUND Mosquito-borne diseases are climate sensitive and there has been increasing concern over the impact of climate change on future disease risk. This paper projected the potential future risk of Barmah Forest virus (BFV) disease under climate change scenarios in Queensland, Australia. METHODS/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS We obtained data on notified BFV cases, climate (maximum and minimum temperature and rainfall), socio-economic and tidal conditions for current period 2000-2008 for coastal regions in Queensland. Grid-data on future climate projections for 2025, 2050 and 2100 were also obtained. Logistic regression models were built to forecast the otential risk of BFV disease distribution under existing climatic, socio-economic and tidal conditions. The model was applied to estimate the potential geographic distribution of BFV outbreaks under climate change scenarios. The predictive model had good model accuracy, sensitivity and specificity. Maps on potential risk of future BFV disease indicated that disease would vary significantly across coastal regions in Queensland by 2100 due to marked differences in future rainfall and temperature projections. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE We conclude that the results of this study demonstrate that the future risk of BFV disease would vary across coastal regions in Queensland. These results may be helpful for public health decision making towards developing effective risk management strategies for BFV disease control and prevention programs in Queensland.
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To enhance the performance of the k-nearest neighbors approach in forecasting short-term traffic volume, this paper proposed and tested a two-step approach with the ability of forecasting multiple steps. In selecting k-nearest neighbors, a time constraint window is introduced, and then local minima of the distances between the state vectors are ranked to avoid overlappings among candidates. Moreover, to control extreme values’ undesirable impact, a novel algorithm with attractive analytical features is developed based on the principle component. The enhanced KNN method has been evaluated using the field data, and our comparison analysis shows that it outperformed the competing algorithms in most cases.
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This research is carried out by using finite element modelling of building prototypes with three different layouts (rectangular, octagonal and L-shaped) for three different heights (98.0 m, 147.0 m and 199.5 m) for the optimization of lateral load-resisting systems in composite high-rise buildings. Variations of lateral bracings (different number and varied placement along model height of belt-truss and outrigger floors) with RCC (reinforced cement concrete) core wall are used in composite high-rise building models. Prototypes of composite buildings are analysed for dynamic wind and seismic loads. The effects on serviceability (deflection and frequency) of models are studied and conclusions are deduced.
Resumo:
Fire safety has become an important part in structural design due to the ever increasing loss of properties and lives during fires. Conventionally the fire rating of load bearing wall systems made of Light gauge Steel Frames (LSF) is determined using fire tests based on the standard time-temperature curve in ISO834 [1]. However, modern commercial and residential buildings make use of thermoplastic materials, which mean considerably high fuel loads. Hence a detailed fire research study into the fire performance of LSF walls was undertaken using realistic design fire curves developed based on Eurocode parametric [2] and Barnett’s BFD [3] curves using both full scale fire tests and numerical studies. It included LSF walls without cavity insulation, and the recently developed externally insulated composite panel system. This paper presents the details of finite element models developed to simulate the full scale fire tests of LSF wall panels under realistic design fires. Finite element models of LSF walls exposed to realistic design fires were developed, and analysed under both transient and steady state fire conditions using the measured stud time-temperature curves. Transient state analyses were performed to simulate fire test conditions while steady state analyses were performed to obtain the load ratio versus time and failure temperature curves of LSF walls. Details of the developed finite element models and the results including the axial deformation and lateral deflection versus time curves, and the stud failure modes and times are presented in this paper. Comparison with fire test results demonstrate the ability of developed finite element models to predict the performance and fire resistance ratings of LSF walls under realistic design fires.
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Performance of urban transit systems may be quantified and assessed using transit capacity and productive capacity in planning, design and operational management activities. Bunker (4) defines important productive performance measures of an individual transit service and transit line, which are extended in this paper to quantify efficiency and operating fashion of transit services and lines. Comparison of a hypothetical bus line’s operation during a morning peak hour and daytime hour demonstrates the usefulness of productiveness efficiency and passenger transmission efficiency, passenger churn and average proportion line length traveled to the operator in understanding their services’ and lines’ productive performance, operating characteristics, and quality of service. Productiveness efficiency can flag potential pass-up activity under high load conditions, as well as ineffective resource deployment. Proportion line length traveled can directly measure operating fashion. These measures can be used to compare between lines/routes and, within a given line, various operating scenarios and time horizons to target improvements. The next research stage is investigating within-line variation using smart card passenger data and field observation of pass-ups. Insights will be used to further develop practical guidance to operators.
Resumo:
This article content analyzes music in tourism TV commercials from 95 regions and countries to identify their general acoustic characteristics. The objective is to offer a general guideline in the postproduction of tourism TV commercials. It is found that tourism TV commercials tend to be produced in a faster tempo with beats per minute close to 120, which is rare to be found in general TV commercials. To compensate for the faster tempo (increased aural information load), less scenes (longer duration per scene) were edited into the footage. Production recommendations and future research are presented.
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With new developments in battery technologies, increasing application of Battery Energy Storage System (BESS) in power system is anticipated in near future. BESS has already been used for primary frequency regulation in the past. This paper examines the feasibility of using BESS with load shedding, in application for large disturbances in power system. Load shedding is one of the conventional ways during large disturbances, and the performance of frequency control will increase in combination with BESS application. According to the latest news, BESS which are applied in high power side will be employed in practice in next 5 year. A simple low order SMR model is used as a test system, while an incremental model of BESS is applied in this paper. As continuous disturbances are not the main concern in this paper, df/dt is not considered in article.
Resumo:
This paper proposes a new distributed coordination approach to make load leveling, using Energy Storage Units (ESUs) in LV network. The proposed distributed control strategy is based on consensus algorithm which shares the required active power equally among the ESUs with respect to their rating. To show the effectiveness of the proposed approach, a typical radial LV network is simulated as a case study.