Stochastic linear multistep methods for the simulation of chemical kinetics

In this paper, we introduce the Stochastic Adams-Bashforth (SAB) and Stochastic Adams-Moulton (SAM) methods as an extension of the tau-leaping framework to past information. Using the theta-trapezoidal tau-leap method of weak order two as a starting procedure, we show that the k-step SAB method with k >= 3 is order three in the mean and correlation, while a predictor-corrector implementation of the SAM method is weak order three in the mean but only order one in the correlation. These convergence results have been derived analytically for linear problems and successfully tested numerically for both linear and non-linear systems. A series of additional examples have been implemented in order to demonstrate the efficacy of this approach.

Quantification of stability in an agility drill using linear and nonlinear measures of variability

This study implemented linear and nonlinear methods of measuring variability to determine differences in stability of two groups of skilled (n = 10) and unskilled (n = 10) participants performing 3m forward/backward shuttle agility drill. We also determined whether stability measures differed between the forward and backward segments of the drill. Finally, we sought to investigate whether local dynamic stability, measured using largest finite-time Lyapunov exponents, changed from distal to proximal lower extremity segments. Three-dimensional coordinates of five lower extremity markers data were recorded. Results revealed that the Lyapunov exponents were lower (P < 0.05) for skilled participants at all joint markers indicative of higher levels of local dynamic stability. Additionally, stability of motion did not differ between forward and backward segments of the drill (P > 0.05), signifying that almost the same control strategy was used in forward and backward directions by all participants, regardless of skill level. Furthermore, local dynamic stability increased from distal to proximal joints (P < 0.05) indicating that stability of proximal segments are prioritized by the neuromuscular control system. Finally, skilled participants displayed greater foot placement standard deviation values (P < 0.05), indicative of adaptation to task constraints. The results of this study provide new methods for sport scientists, coaches to characterize stability in agility drill performance.

Refractive indices used by the Haag-Streit Lenstar to calculate axial biometric dimensions

PURPOSE To estimate refractive indices used by the Lenstar biometer to translate measured optical path lengths into geometrical path lengths within the eye. METHODS Axial lengths of model eyes were determined using the IOLMaster and Lenstar biometers; comparing those lengths gave an overall eye refractive index estimate for the Lenstar. Using the Lenstar Graphical User Interface, we noticed that boundaries between media could be manipulated and opposite changes in optical path lengths on either side of the boundary could be introduced. Those ratios were combined with the overall eye refractive index to estimate separate refractive indices. Furthermore, Haag-Streit provided us with a template to obtain 'air thicknesses' to compare with geometrical distances. RESULTS The axial length estimates obtained using the IOLMaster and the Lenstar agreed to within 0.01 mm. Estimates of group refractive indices used in the Lenstar were 1.340, 1.341, 1.415, and 1.354 for cornea, aqueous, lens, and overall eye, respectively. Those refractive indices did not match those of schematic eyes, but were close in the cases of aqueous and lens. Linear equations relating air thicknesses to geometrical thicknesses were consistent with our findings. CONCLUSION The Lenstar uses different refractive indices for different ocular media. Some of the refractive indices, such as that for the cornea, are not physiological; therefore, it is likely that the calibrations in the instrument correspond to instrument-specific corrections and are not the real optical path lengths.

The root locus method: application to linear stability analysis and design of cooperative car-following models

A global framework for linear stability analyses of traffic models, based on the dispersion relation root locus method, is presented and is applied taking the example of a broad class of car-following (CF) models. This approach is able to analyse all aspects of the dynamics: long waves and short wave behaviours, phase velocities and stability features. The methodology is applied to investigate the potential benefits of connected vehicles, i.e. V2V communication enabling a vehicle to send and receive information to and from surrounding vehicles. We choose to focus on the design of the coefficients of cooperation which weights the information from downstream vehicles. The coefficients tuning is performed and different ways of implementing an efficient cooperative strategy are discussed. Hence, this paper brings design methods in order to obtain robust stability of traffic models, with application on cooperative CF models

Temperature variation between neighboring days and mortality: a distributed lag non-linear analysis

Objectives To investigate whether a sudden temperature change between neighboring days has significant impact on mortality. Methods A Poisson generalized linear regression model combined with a distributed lag non-linear models was used to estimate the association of temperature change between neighboring days with mortality in a subtropical Chinese city during 2008–2012. Temperature change was calculated as the current day’s temperature minus the previous day’s temperature. Results A significant effect of temperature change between neighboring days on mortality was observed. Temperature increase was significantly associated with elevated mortality from non-accidental and cardiovascular diseases, while temperature decrease had a protective effect on non-accidental mortality and cardiovascular mortality. Males and people aged 65 years or older appeared to be more vulnerable to the impact of temperature change. Conclusions Temperature increase between neighboring days has a significant adverse impact on mortality. Further health mitigation strategies as a response to climate change should take into account temperature variation between neighboring days.

Estimation of the time of a linear trend in monitoring survival time

Change point estimation is recognized as an essential tool of root cause analyses within quality control programs as it enables clinical experts to search for potential causes of change in hospital outcomes more effectively. In this paper, we consider estimation of the time when a linear trend disturbance has occurred in survival time following an in-control clinical intervention in the presence of variable patient mix. To model the process and change point, a linear trend in the survival time of patients who underwent cardiac surgery is formulated using hierarchical models in a Bayesian framework. The data are right censored since the monitoring is conducted over a limited follow-up period. We capture the effect of risk factors prior to the surgery using a Weibull accelerated failure time regression model. We use Markov Chain Monte Carlo to obtain posterior distributions of the change point parameters including the location and the slope size of the trend and also corresponding probabilistic intervals and inferences. The performance of the Bayesian estimator is investigated through simulations and the result shows that precise estimates can be obtained when they are used in conjunction with the risk-adjusted survival time cumulative sum control chart (CUSUM) control charts for different trend scenarios. In comparison with the alternatives, step change point model and built-in CUSUM estimator, more accurate and precise estimates are obtained by the proposed Bayesian estimator over linear trends. These superiorities are enhanced when probability quantification, flexibility and generalizability of the Bayesian change point detection model are also considered.

Linear programming for large-scale Markov decision problems

We consider the problem of controlling a Markov decision process (MDP) with a large state space, so as to minimize average cost. Since it is intractable to compete with the optimal policy for large scale problems, we pursue the more modest goal of competing with a low-dimensional family of policies. We use the dual linear programming formulation of the MDP average cost problem, in which the variable is a stationary distribution over state-action pairs, and we consider a neighborhood of a low-dimensional subset of the set of stationary distributions (defined in terms of state-action features) as the comparison class. We propose a technique based on stochastic convex optimization and give bounds that show that the performance of our algorithm approaches the best achievable by any policy in the comparison class. Most importantly, this result depends on the size of the comparison class, but not on the size of the state space. Preliminary experiments show the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm in a queuing application.

Linear and weakly nonlinear stability analyses of cooperative car-following models

Stability analyses have been widely used to better understand the mechanism of traffic jam formation. In this paper, we consider the impact of cooperative systems (a.k.a. connected vehicles) on traffic dynamics and, more precisely, on flow stability. Cooperative systems are emerging technologies enabling communication between vehicles and/or with the infrastructure. In a distributed communication framework, equipped vehicles are able to send and receive information to/from other equipped vehicles. Here, the effects of cooperative traffic are modeled through a general bilateral multianticipative car-following law that improves cooperative drivers' perception of their surrounding traffic conditions within a given communication range. Linear stability analyses are performed for a broad class of car-following models. They point out different stability conditions in both multianticipative and nonmultianticipative situations. To better understand what happens in unstable conditions, information on the shock wave structure is studied in the weakly nonlinear regime by the mean of the reductive perturbation method. The shock wave equation is obtained for generic car-following models by deriving the Korteweg de Vries equations. We then derive traffic-state-dependent conditions for the sign of the solitary wave (soliton) amplitude. This analytical result is verified through simulations. Simulation results confirm the validity of the speed estimate. The variation of the soliton amplitude as a function of the communication range is provided. The performed linear and weakly nonlinear analyses help justify the potential benefits of vehicle-integrated communication systems and provide new insights supporting the future implementation of cooperative systems.

Improved linear cryptanalysis of reduced-round SIMON-32 and SIMON-48

In this paper we analyse two variants of SIMON family of light-weight block ciphers against variants of linear cryptanalysis and present the best linear cryptanalytic results on these variants of reduced-round SIMON to date. We propose a time-memory trade-off method that finds differential/linear trails for any permutation allowing low Hamming weight differential/linear trails. Our method combines low Hamming weight trails found by the correlation matrix representing the target permutation with heavy Hamming weight trails found using a Mixed Integer Programming model representing the target differential/linear trail. Our method enables us to find a 17-round linear approximation for SIMON-48 which is the best current linear approximation for SIMON-48. Using only the correlation matrix method, we are able to find a 14-round linear approximation for SIMON-32 which is also the current best linear approximation for SIMON-32. The presented linear approximations allow us to mount a 23-round key recovery attack on SIMON-32 and a 24-round Key recovery attack on SIMON-48/96 which are the current best results on SIMON-32 and SIMON-48. In addition we have an attack on 24 rounds of SIMON-32 with marginal complexity.

Two linear beetle-type scanning tunneling microscopes

Two beetle-type scanning tunneling microscopes are described. Both designs have the thermal stability of the Besocke beetle and the simplicity of the Wilms beetle. Moreover, sample holders were designed that also allow both semiconductor wafers and metal single crystals to be studied. The coarse approach is a linear motion of the beetle towards the sample using inertial slip–stick motion. Ten wires are required to control the position of the beetle and scanner and measure the tunneling current. The two beetles were built with different sized piezolegs, and the vibrational properties of both beetles were studied in detail. It was found, in agreement with previous work, that the beetle bending mode is the lowest principal eigenmode. However, in contrast to previous vibrational studies of beetle-type scanning tunneling microscopes, we found that the beetles did not have the “rattling” modes that are thought to arise from the beetle sliding or rocking between surface asperities on the raceway. The mass of our beetles is 3–4 times larger than the mass of beetles where rattling modes have been observed. We conjecture that the mass of our beetles is above a “critical beetle mass.” This is defined to be the beetle mass that attenuates the rattling modes by elastically deforming the contact region to the extent that the rattling modes cannot be identified as distinct modes in cross-coupling measurements.

Iterative estimating equations: Linear convergence and asymptotic properties

We propose an iterative estimating equations procedure for analysis of longitudinal data. We show that, under very mild conditions, the probability that the procedure converges at an exponential rate tends to one as the sample size increases to infinity. Furthermore, we show that the limiting estimator is consistent and asymptotically efficient, as expected. The method applies to semiparametric regression models with unspecified covariances among the observations. In the special case of linear models, the procedure reduces to iterative reweighted least squares. Finite sample performance of the procedure is studied by simulations, and compared with other methods. A numerical example from a medical study is considered to illustrate the application of the method.

Analysing commercial catch and effort data from a penaeid trawl fishery: A comparison of linear models, mixed models, and generalised estimating equations approaches

Statistical methods are often used to analyse commercial catch and effort data to provide standardised fishing effort and/or a relative index of fish abundance for input into stock assessment models. Achieving reliable results has proved difficult in Australia's Northern Prawn Fishery (NPF), due to a combination of such factors as the biological characteristics of the animals, some aspects of the fleet dynamics, and the changes in fishing technology. For this set of data, we compared four modelling approaches (linear models, mixed models, generalised estimating equations, and generalised linear models) with respect to the outcomes of the standardised fishing effort or the relative index of abundance. We also varied the number and form of vessel covariates in the models. Within a subset of data from this fishery, modelling correlation structures did not alter the conclusions from simpler statistical models. The random-effects models also yielded similar results. This is because the estimators are all consistent even if the correlation structure is mis-specified, and the data set is very large. However, the standard errors from different models differed, suggesting that different methods have different statistical efficiency. We suggest that there is value in modelling the variance function and the correlation structure, to make valid and efficient statistical inferences and gain insight into the data. We found that fishing power was separable from the indices of prawn abundance only when we offset the impact of vessel characteristics at assumed values from external sources. This may be due to the large degree of confounding within the data, and the extreme temporal changes in certain aspects of individual vessels, the fleet and the fleet dynamics.

Leveraging Lean Production Philosophy for Rationalising a Non-Linear Representation of Construction Specifications

This paper presents an approach, based on Lean production philosophy, for rationalising the processes involved in the production of specification documents for construction projects. Current construction literature erroneously depicts the process for the creation of construction specifications as a linear one. This traditional understanding of the specification process often culminates in process-wastes. On the contrary, the evidence suggests that though generalised, the activities involved in producing specification documents are nonlinear. Drawing on the outcome of participant observation, this paper presents an optimised approach for representing construction specifications. Consequently, the actors typically involved in producing specification documents are identified, the processes suitable for automation are highlighted and the central role of tacit knowledge is integrated into a conceptual template of construction specifications. By applying the transformation, flow, value (TFV) theory of Lean production the paper argues that value creation can be realised by eliminating the wastes associated with the traditional preparation of specification documents with a view to integrating specifications in digital models such as Building Information Models (BIM). Therefore, the paper presents an approach for rationalising the TFV theory as a method for optimising current approaches for generating construction specifications based on a revised specification writing model.

J.W.Lindt’s Colonial man and Aborigine image from the GRAFTON ALBUM : “On chemistry and optics all does not depend, art must with these in triple union blend”

J.W.Lindt’s Colonial man and Aborigine image from the GRAFTON ALBUM: “On chemistry and optics all does not depend, art must with these in triple union blend” (text from J.W. Lindt’s photographic backing card) In this paper, I follow an argument that Lindt held a position in his particular colonial environment where he was simultaneously both an insider and an outsider and that such a position may be considered prerequisite in stimulating exchange. A study of the transition of J.W. Lindt in Grafton, N.S.W. in the 1860s from a traveller to a migrant and subsequently to a professional photographer, as well as Lindt’s photographic career, which evolved through strategic action and technical approaches to photography, bears witness to his cultural relativity. One untitled photograph from this period of work constructs a unique commentary of Australian colonial life that illustrates a non-hegemonic position, particularly as it was included in one of the first albums of photographs of Aborigines that Lindt gifted to an illustrious person (in this case the Mayor of Grafton). As in his other studio constructions, props and backdrops were arranged and sitters were positioned with care, but this photograph is the only one in the album that includes a non-Aborigine in a relationship to an Aborigine. An analysis of the props, technical details of the album and the image suggests a reconciliatory aspect that thwarts the predominant attitudes towards Aborigines in the area at that time.

Miniscleral lens wear influences corneal curvature and optics

Purpose Transient changes in corneal topography associated with soft and conventional or reverse geometry rigid contact lens wear have been well documented; however, only a few studies have examined the influence of scleral contact lens wear upon the cornea. Therefore, in this study, we examined the influence of modern miniscleral contact lenses, which land entirely on the sclera and overlying tissues, upon anterior corneal curvature and optics. Methods Anterior corneal topography and elevation data were acquired using Scheimpflug imaging (Pentacam HR, Oculus) immediately prior to and following 8 hours of miniscleral contact lens wear in 15 young healthy adults (mean age 22 ± 3 years, 8 East Asian, 7 Caucasian) with normal corneae. Corneal diurnal variations were accounted for using data collected on a dedicated measurement day without contact lens wear. Corneal clearance was quantified using an optical coherence tomographer (RS-3000, Nidek) following lens insertion and after 8 hours of lens wear. Results Although corneal clearance was maintained throughout the 8 hour lens wear period, significant corneal flattening (up to 0.08 ± 0.04 mm) was observed, primarily in the superior mid-peripheral cornea, which resulted in a slight increase in against-the-rule corneal astigmatism (mean +0.02/-0.15 x 94 for an 8 mm diameter). Higher order aberration terms of horizontal coma, vertical coma and spherical aberration all underwent significant changes for an 8 mm corneal diameter (p ≤ 0.01), which typically resulted in a decrease in RMS error values (mean change in total higher order RMS -0.035 ± 0.046 µm for an 8 mm diameter). There was no association between the magnitude of change in central or mid-peripheral corneal clearance during lens wear and the observed changes in corneal curvature (p > 0.05). However, Asian participants displayed a significantly greater reduction in corneal clearance (p = 0.04) and greater superior-nasal corneal flattening compared to Caucasians (p = 0.048). Conclusions Miniscleral contact lenses that vault the cornea induce significant changes in anterior corneal surface topography and higher order aberrations following 8 hours of lens wear. The region of greatest corneal flattening was observed in the superior-nasal mid-periphery, more so in Asian participants. Practitioners should be aware that corneal measurements obtained following miniscleral lens removal may mask underlying corneal steepening.