Complex symbolic sequence clustering and multiple classifiers for predictive process monitoring

This paper addresses the following predictive business process monitoring problem: Given the execution trace of an ongoing case,and given a set of traces of historical (completed) cases, predict the most likely outcome of the ongoing case. In this context, a trace refers to a sequence of events with corresponding payloads, where a payload consists of a set of attribute-value pairs. Meanwhile, an outcome refers to a label associated to completed cases, like, for example, a label indicating that a given case completed “on time” (with respect to a given desired duration) or “late”, or a label indicating that a given case led to a customer complaint or not. The paper tackles this problem via a two-phased approach. In the first phase, prefixes of historical cases are encoded using complex symbolic sequences and clustered. In the second phase, a classifier is built for each of the clusters. To predict the outcome of an ongoing case at runtime given its (uncompleted) trace, we select the closest cluster(s) to the trace in question and apply the respective classifier(s), taking into account the Euclidean distance of the trace from the center of the clusters. We consider two families of clustering algorithms – hierarchical clustering and k-medoids – and use random forests for classification. The approach was evaluated on four real-life datasets.

Bayesian methodology for genetics of complex diseases

Genetic research of complex diseases is a challenging, but exciting, area of research. The early development of the research was limited, however, until the completion of the Human Genome and HapMap projects, along with the reduction in the cost of genotyping, which paves the way for understanding the genetic composition of complex diseases. In this thesis, we focus on the statistical methods for two aspects of genetic research: phenotype definition for diseases with complex etiology and methods for identifying potentially associated Single Nucleotide Polymorphisms (SNPs) and SNP-SNP interactions. With regard to phenotype definition for diseases with complex etiology, we firstly investigated the effects of different statistical phenotyping approaches on the subsequent analysis. In light of the findings, and the difficulties in validating the estimated phenotype, we proposed two different methods for reconciling phenotypes of different models using Bayesian model averaging as a coherent mechanism for accounting for model uncertainty. In the second part of the thesis, the focus is turned to the methods for identifying associated SNPs and SNP interactions. We review the use of Bayesian logistic regression with variable selection for SNP identification and extended the model for detecting the interaction effects for population based case-control studies. In this part of study, we also develop a machine learning algorithm to cope with the large scale data analysis, namely modified Logic Regression with Genetic Program (MLR-GEP), which is then compared with the Bayesian model, Random Forests and other variants of logic regression.

Evidence for CRHR1 in multiple sclerosis using supervised machine learning and meta-analysis in 12 566 individuals

The primary genetic risk factor in multiple sclerosis (MS) is the HLA-DRB1*1501 allele; however, much of the remaining genetic contribution to MS has yet to be elucidated. Several lines of evidence support a role for neuroendocrine system involvement in autoimmunity which may, in part, be genetically determined. Here, we comprehensively investigated variation within eight candidate hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal (HPA) axis genes and susceptibility to MS. A total of 326 SNPs were investigated in a discovery dataset of 1343 MS cases and 1379 healthy controls of European ancestry using a multi-analytical strategy. Random Forests, a supervised machine-learning algorithm, identified eight intronic SNPs within the corticotrophin-releasing hormone receptor 1 or CRHR1 locus on 17q21.31 as important predictors of MS. On the basis of univariate analyses, six CRHR1 variants were associated with decreased risk for disease following a conservative correction for multiple tests. Independent replication was observed for CRHR1 in a large meta-analysis comprising 2624 MS cases and 7220 healthy controls of European ancestry. Results from a combined meta-analysis of all 3967 MS cases and 8599 controls provide strong evidence for the involvement of CRHR1 in MS. The strongest association was observed for rs242936 (OR = 0.82, 95% CI = 0.74-0.90, P = 9.7 × 10-5). Replicated CRHR1 variants appear to exist on a single associated haplotype. Further investigation of mechanisms involved in HPA axis regulation and response to stress in MS pathogenesis is warranted. © The Author 2010. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved.

Supplementary material : large scale read classification for next generation sequencing

Next Generation Sequencing (NGS) has revolutionised molecular biology, resulting in an explosion of data sets and an increasing role in clinical practice. Such applications necessarily require rapid identification of the organism as a prelude to annotation and further analysis. NGS data consist of a substantial number of short sequence reads, given context through downstream assembly and annotation, a process requiring reads consistent with the assumed species or species group. Highly accurate results have been obtained for restricted sets using SVM classifiers, but such methods are difficult to parallelise and success depends on careful attention to feature selection. This work examines the problem at very large scale, using a mix of synthetic and real data with a view to determining the overall structure of the problem and the effectiveness of parallel ensembles of simpler classifiers (principally random forests) in addressing the challenges of large scale genomics.

Large scale read classification for next generation sequencing

Next Generation Sequencing (NGS) has revolutionised molecular biology, resulting in an explosion of data sets and an increasing role in clinical practice. Such applications necessarily require rapid identification of the organism as a prelude to annotation and further analysis. NGS data consist of a substantial number of short sequence reads, given context through downstream assembly and annotation, a process requiring reads consistent with the assumed species or species group. Highly accurate results have been obtained for restricted sets using SVM classifiers, but such methods are difficult to parallelise and success depends on careful attention to feature selection. This work examines the problem at very large scale, using a mix of synthetic and real data with a view to determining the overall structure of the problem and the effectiveness of parallel ensembles of simpler classifiers (principally random forests) in addressing the challenges of large scale genomics.

Practical path planning and obstacle avoidance for autonomous mowing

There is a need for systems which can autonomously perform coverage tasks on large outdoor areas. Unfortunately, the state-of-the-art is to use GPS based localization, which is not suitable for precise operations near trees and other obstructions. In this paper we present a robotic platform for autonomous coverage tasks. The system architecture integrates laser based localization and mapping using the Atlas Framework with Rapidly-Exploring Random Trees path planning and Virtual Force Field obstacle avoidance. We demonstrate the performance of the system in simulation as well as with real world experiments.

Robotic detection and tracking of Crown-Of-Thorns starfish

This paper presents a novel vision-based underwater robotic system for the identification and control of Crown-Of-Thorns starfish (COTS) in coral reef environments. COTS have been identified as one of the most significant threats to Australia's Great Barrier Reef. These starfish literally eat coral, impacting large areas of reef and the marine ecosystem that depends on it. Evidence has suggested that land-based nutrient runoff has accelerated recent outbreaks of COTS requiring extensive use of divers to manually inject biological agents into the starfish in an attempt to control population numbers. Facilitating this control program using robotics is the goal of our research. In this paper we introduce a vision-based COTS detection and tracking system based on a Random Forest Classifier (RFC) trained on images from underwater footage. To track COTS with a moving camera, we embed the RFC in a particle filter detector and tracker where the predicted class probability of the RFC is used as an observation probability to weight the particles, and we use a sparse optical flow estimation for the prediction step of the filter. The system is experimentally evaluated in a realistic laboratory setup using a robotic arm that moves a camera at different speeds and heights over a range of real-size images of COTS in a reef environment.

Variations in MIMO-OFDM channel capacity due to random human movement in an indoor environment

Channel measurements and simulations have been carried out to observe the effects of pedestrian movement on multiple-input multiple-output orthogonal frequency division multiplexing (MIMO-OFDM) channel capacity. An in-house built MIMO-OFDM packet transmission demonstrator equipped with four transmitters and four receivers has been utilized to perform channel measurements at 5.2 GHz. Variations in the channel capacity dynamic range have been analysed for 1 to 10 pedestrians and different antenna arrays (2 × 2, 3 × 3 and 4 × 4). Results show a predicted 5.5 bits/s/Hz and a measured 1.5 bits/s/Hz increment in the capacity dynamic range with the number of pedestrian and the number of antennas in the transmitter and receiver array.