How useful is expert opinion for predicting the distribution of a species within and beyond the region of expertise? A case study using brush-tailed rock-wallabiesPetrogale penicillata

1. Species' distribution modelling relies on adequate data sets to build reliable statistical models with high predictive ability. However, the money spent collecting empirical data might be better spent on management. A less expensive source of species' distribution information is expert opinion. This study evaluates expert knowledge and its source. In particular, we determine whether models built on expert knowledge apply over multiple regions or only within the region where the knowledge was derived. 2. The case study focuses on the distribution of the brush-tailed rock-wallaby Petrogale penicillata in eastern Australia. We brought together from two biogeographically different regions substantial and well-designed field data and knowledge from nine experts. We used a novel elicitation tool within a geographical information system to systematically collect expert opinions. The tool utilized an indirect approach to elicitation, asking experts simpler questions about observable rather than abstract quantities, with measures in place to identify uncertainty and offer feedback. Bayesian analysis was used to combine field data and expert knowledge in each region to determine: (i) how expert opinion affected models based on field data and (ii) how similar expert-informed models were within regions and across regions. 3. The elicitation tool effectively captured the experts' opinions and their uncertainties. Experts were comfortable with the map-based elicitation approach used, especially with graphical feedback. Experts tended to predict lower values of species occurrence compared with field data. 4. Across experts, consensus on effect sizes occurred for several habitat variables. Expert opinion generally influenced predictions from field data. However, south-east Queensland and north-east New South Wales experts had different opinions on the influence of elevation and geology, with these differences attributable to geological differences between these regions. 5. Synthesis and applications. When formulated as priors in Bayesian analysis, expert opinion is useful for modifying or strengthening patterns exhibited by empirical data sets that are limited in size or scope. Nevertheless, the ability of an expert to extrapolate beyond their region of knowledge may be poor. Hence there is significant merit in obtaining information from local experts when compiling species' distribution models across several regions.

Introduction to the development of the ISPCAN child abuse screening tools

The World Report on Children and Violence, (Pinheiro, 2006) was produced at the request of the UN Secretary General and the UN General Assembly. This report recommended improvement in research on child abuse. ISPCAN representatives took this charge and developed 3 new instruments. We describe this background and introduce three new measures designed to assess the incidence and prevalence of child abuse and neglect.

Trauma and Injury Severity Score (TRISS) coefficients 2009 revision

Background: Currently used Trauma and Injury Severity Score (TRISS) coefficients, which measure probability of survival (Ps), were derived from the Major Trauma Outcome Study (MTOS) in 1995 and are now unlikely to be optimal. This study aims to estimate new TRISS coefficients using a contemporary database of injured patients presenting to emergency departments in the United States; and to compare these against the MTOS coefficients.---------- Methods: Data were obtained from the National Trauma Data Bank (NTDB) and the NTDB National Sample Project (NSP). TRISS coefficients were estimated using logistic regression. Separate coefficients were derived from complete case and multistage multiple imputation analyses for each NTDB and NSP dataset. Associated Ps over Injury Severity Score values were graphed and compared by age (adult ≥ 15 years; pediatric < 15 years) and injury mechanism (blunt; penetrating) groups. Area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic curves was used to assess coefficients’ predictive performance.---------- Results: Overall 1,072,033 NTDB and 1,278,563 weighted NSP injury events were included, compared with 23,177 used in the original MTOS analyses. Large differences were seen between results from complete case and imputed analyses. For blunt mechanism and adult penetrating mechanism injuries, there were similarities between coefficients estimated on imputed samples, and marked divergences between associated Ps estimated and those from the MTOS. However, negligible differences existed between area under the receiver operating characteristic curves estimates because the overwhelming majority of patients had minor trauma and survived. For pediatric penetrating mechanism injuries, variability in coefficients was large and Ps estimates unreliable.---------- Conclusions: Imputed NTDB coefficients are recommended as the TRISS coefficients 2009 revision for blunt mechanism and adult penetrating mechanism injuries. Coefficients for pediatric penetrating mechanism injuries could not be reliably estimated.

The accidental mentor : Australian rural nurses developing supportive relationships in the workplace

improved rural nurse retention as an outcome of recognising and developing such supportive relationships in the workplace. Strategies include: performance review and development processes that account for all forms of supportive relationships conducted in the workplace; recognising the importance of developing supportive relationships and allocating time for these; and continuing professional development designed to meet local needs for developing a culture of support in the workplace.

Scaling analysis of unsteady natural convection boundary layer for ramp heating

A scaling analysis for the natural convection boundary layer adjacent to an inclined semi-infinite plate subject to a non-instantaneous heating in the form of an imposed wall temperature which increases linearly up to a prescribed steady value over a prescribed time is reported. The development of the flow from start-up to a steady-state has been described based on scaling analyses and verified by numerical simulations. The analysis reveals that, if the period of temperature growth on the wall is sufficiently long, the boundary layer reaches a quasisteady mode before the growth of the temperature is completed. In this mode the thermal boundary layer at first grows in thickness and then contracts with increasing time. However, if the imposed wall temperature growth period is sufficiently short, the boundary layer develops differently, but after the wall temperature growth is completed, the boundary layer develops as though the start up had been instantaneous. The steady state values of the boundary layer for both cases are ultimately the same.

Association of inducible nitric oxide synthase with asthma severity, total serum immunoglobulin E and blood eosinophil levels

Background Nitric oxide is released by immune, epithelial and endothelial cells, and plays an important part in the pathophysiology of asthma. Objective To investigate the association of inducible nitric oxide synthases (iNOS) gene repeat polymorphisms with asthma. Methods 230 families with asthma (842 individuals) were recruited to identify and establish the genetic association of iNOS repeats with asthma and associated phenotypes. Serum nitric oxide levels in selected individuals were measured and correlated with specific genotypes. Multiple logistic regression analysis was performed to determine the effect of age and sex. Results A total of four repeats—a (CCTTT)n promoter repeat, a novel intron 2 (GT)n repeat (BV680047), an intron 4 (GT)n repeat (AFM311ZB1) and an intron 5 (CA)n repeat (D17S1878)—were identified and genotyped. A significant transmission distortion to the probands with asthma was seen for allele 3 of the AFM311ZB1 gene (p = 0.006). This allele was also found to be significantly associated with percentage blood eosinophils (p<0.001) and asthma severity (p = 0.04). Moreover, it was functionally correlated with high serum nitric oxide levels (p = 0.006). Similarly, the promoter repeat was found to be associated with serum total immunoglobulin (Ig)E (p = 0.028). Individuals carrying allele 4 of this repeat have high serum IgE (p<0.001) and nitric oxide levels (p = 0.03). Conclusion This is the first study to identify the repeat polymorphisms in the iNOS gene that are associated with severity of asthma and eosinophils. The functional relevance of the associated alleles with serum nitric oxide levels was also shown. Therefore, these results could be valuable in elucidating the role of nitric oxide in asthma pathogenesis.

Outsourcing strategies for radical innovations: does industry clockspeed make a difference?

Purpose – To determine whether or not clockspeed is an important variable in outsourcing strategies throughout the development of radical innovations. Design/methodology/approach – An internet-based survey of manufacturing firms from all over the world. Findings – An industry's clockspeed does not play a significant role in the success or failure of a particular outsourcing strategy for a radical innovation. Research limitations/implications – Conclusions from earlier research in this area are not necessarily industry-specific. Practical implications – Lessons learned via previous investigations about the computer industry need not be confined to that sector. Vertical integration may be a more robust outsourcing strategy when developing a radical innovation in industries of all clockspeeds. Originality/value – Previous research efforts in this field focused on a single technology jump, but this approach may have overlooked a potentially important variable: industry clockspeed. Thus, this investigation explores whether clockspeed is an important factor.

Vibrational spectroscopic study of multianion mineral clinotyrolite Ca2Cu9[(As,S)O4]4(OH)10•10(H2O)

The molecular structure of the mixed anion mineral Clinotyrolite Ca2Cu9[(As,S)O4]4(OH)10•10(H2O) has been determined by the combination of Raman and infrared spectroscopy. Characteristic bands associated with arsenate, sulphate and hydroxyl units are identified. Broad bands in the OH stretching region are observed and are resolved into component bands. Estimates of hydrogen bond distances were made using a Libowitzky function and both short and long hydrogen bonds are identified. Two intense Raman bands at 842 and ~796 cm-1 are assigned to the ν1 (AsO4)3- symmetric stretching and ν3 (AsO4)3- antisymmetric stretching modes. The comparatively sharp Raman band at 980 cm-1 is assigned to the ν1 (SO4)2- symmetric stretching mode and a broad Raman spectral profile centred upon 1100 cm-1 is attributed to the ν3 (SO4)2- antisymmetric stretching mode.

Empirical IEEE 802.11p performance evaluation on test tracks

IEEE 802.11p is the new standard for inter-vehicular communications (IVC) using the 5.9 GHz frequency band; it is planned to be widely deployed to enable cooperative systems. 802.11p uses and performance have been studied theoretically and in simulations over the past years. Unfortunately, many of these results have not been confirmed by on-tracks experimentation. In this paper, we describe field trials of 802.11p technology with our test vehicles. Metrics such as maximum range, latency and frame loss are examined.

Human factors at the interface between road and rail systems

Railway level crossings present an arguably unique interface between two transport systems that differ markedly in their performance characteristics, their degrees of regulation and their safety cultures. Railway level crossings also differ dramatically in the importance they represent as safety issues for the two modes. For rail, they are the location of a large proportion of fatalities within the system and are therefore the focus of much safety concern. For the road system, they comprise only a few percent of all fatalities, although the potential for catastrophic outcomes exist. Rail operators and regulators have traditionally required technologies to be failsafe and to demonstrate high levels of reliability. The resultant level of complexity and cost has both limited their extent of application and led to a need to better understand how motorists comprehend and respond to these systems.

Melt-textured YBa2Cu3O7-x wires having plate-like grains

YBCO wires which consist of well oriented plate-like fine grains are fabricated using a moving furnace to achieve higher mechanical strength. Melt-texturing experiments have been undertaken on YBCO wires with two different compositions: YBa1.5Cu2.9O7-x, and YBa1.8Cu3.0O7-x. Wires are extruded from a mixture of precursor powders (formed by a coprecipitation process) then textured by firing in a moving furnace. Size of secondary phases such as barium cuprate and copper oxide, and overall composition of the sample affect the orientation of the fine grains. At zero magnetic field, the YBa1.5Cu2.9O7-x wire shows the highest critical current density of 1,450 Acm-2 and 8,770 Acm-2 at 77K and 4.2K, respectively. At 1 T, critical current densities of 30 Acm-2 and 200 Acm-2, respectively, are obtained at 77K and 4.2K. Magnetisation curves are also obtained for one sample to evaluate critical current density using the Bean model. Analysis of the microstructure indicates that the starting composition of the green body significantly affects the achievement of grain alignment via melt-texturing processes.

The power of art, the power of entertainment

The question of the relationship between culture and power continues to exercise researchers. In this paper I argue that it is useful to consider the differences between ‘art’ and ‘entertainment’ as systems of culture, each involving a distinct set of power relationships between producers and audiences. Art wants to change audiences; entertainment wants to be changed by audiences. From these different starting points a series of differences unfold in the power possessed by producers and audiences. Artists pride themselves in not involving the audience in the process of making art. By contrast, entertainment wants audiences to contribute to the making of texts. As to the question of who controls the range of what forms of culture are available, it seems that entertainment consumers – unlike art consumers – are ill-disciplined. Historical evidence demonstrates that if legal corporate providers do not offer the kinds of entertainment they want, they will turn to illegal sources. The different ways in which ‘art’ and ‘entertainment’ function as cultural systems suggest that we must rethink our positions on ‘media power’.

Sunlight and other determinants of circulating 25-hydroxyvitamin D levels in black and white participants in a nationwide U.S. study

Circulating 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25(OH)D), a marker for vitamin D status, is associated with bone health and possibly cancers and other diseases; yet, the determinants of 25(OH)D status, particularly ultraviolet radiation (UVR) exposure, are poorly understood. Determinants of 25(OH)D were analyzed in a subcohort of 1,500 participants of the US Radiologic Technologists (USRT) Study that included whites (n 842), blacks (n 646), and people of other races/ethnicities (n 12). Participants were recruited monthly (20082009) across age, sex, race, and ambient UVR level groups. Questionnaires addressing UVR and other exposures were generally completed within 9 days of blood collection. The relation between potential determinants and 25(OH)D levels was examined through regression analysis in a random two-thirds sample and validated in the remaining one third. In the regression model for the full study population, age, race, body mass index, some seasons, hours outdoors being physically active, and vitamin D supplement use were associated with 25(OH)D levels. In whites, generally, the same factors were explanatory. In blacks, only age and vitamin D supplement use predicted 25(OH)D concentrations. In the full population, determinants accounted for 25 of circulating 25(OH)D variability, with similar correlations for subgroups. Despite detailed data on UVR and other factors near the time of blood collection, the ability to explain 25(OH)D was modest.

Metabolite profiling and pathway analysis of acute hepatitis rats by UPLC-ESI MS combined with pattern recognition methods

BACKGROUND & AIMS Metabolomics is comprehensive analysis of low-molecular-weight endogenous metabolites in a biological sample. It could enable mapping of perturbations of early biochemical changes in diseases and hence provide an opportunity to develop predictive biomarkers that could provide valuable insights into the mechanisms of diseases. The aim of this study was to elucidate the changes in endogenous metabolites and to phenotype the metabolic profiling of d-galactosamine (GalN)-inducing acute hepatitis in rats by UPLC-ESI MS. METHODS The systemic biochemical actions of GalN administration (ip, 400 mg/kg) have been investigated in male wistar rats using conventional clinical chemistry, liver histopathology and metabolomic analysis of UPLC- ESI MS of urine. The urine was collected predose (-24 to 0 h) and 0-24, 24-48, 48-72, 72-96 h post-dose. Mass spectrometry of the urine was analysed visually and via conjunction with multivariate data analysis. RESULTS Results demonstrated that there was a time-dependent biochemical effect of GalN dosed on the levels of a range of low-molecular-weight metabolites in urine, which was correlated with developing phase of the GalN-inducing acute hepatitis. Urinary excretion of beta-hydroxybutanoic acid and citric acid was decreased following GalN dosing, whereas that of glycocholic acid, indole-3-acetic acid, sphinganine, n-acetyl-l-phenylalanine, cholic acid and creatinine excretion was increased, which suggests that several key metabolic pathways such as energy metabolism, lipid metabolism and amino acid metabolism were perturbed by GalN. CONCLUSION This metabolomic investigation demonstrates that this robust non-invasive tool offers insight into the metabolic states of diseases.