Application of wavelets to the study of political history

\The idea that social processes develop in a cyclical manner is somewhat like a `Lorelei'. Researchers are lured to it because of its theoretical promise, only to become entangled in (if not wrecked by) messy problems of empirical inference. The reasoning leading to hypotheses of some kind of cycle is often elegant enough, yet the data from repeated observations rarely display the supposed cyclical pattern. (...) In addition, various `schools' seem to exist which frequently arrive at di erent conclusions on the basis of the same data." (van der Eijk and Weber 1987:271). Much of the empirical controversies around these issues arise because of three distinct problems: the coexistence of cycles of di erent periodicities, the possibility of transient cycles and the existence of cycles without xed periodicity. In some cases, there are no reasons to expect any of these phenomena to be relevant. Seasonality caused by Christmas is one such example (Wen 2002). In such cases, researchers mostly rely on spectral analysis and Auto-Regressive Moving-Average (ARMA) models to estimate the periodicity of cycles.1 However, and this is particularly true in social sciences, sometimes there are good theoretical reasons to expect irregular cycles. In such cases, \the identi cation of periodic movement in something like the vote is a daunting task all by itself. When a pendulum swings with an irregular beat (frequency), and the extent of the swing (amplitude) is not constant, mathematical functions like sine-waves are of no use."(Lebo and Norpoth 2007:73) In the past, this di culty has led to two di erent approaches. On the one hand, some researchers dismissed these methods altogether, relying on informal alternatives that do not meet rigorous standards of statistical inference. Goldstein (1985 and 1988), studying the severity of Great power wars is one such example. On the other hand, there are authors who transfer the assumptions of spectral analysis (and ARMA models) into fundamental assumptions about the nature of social phenomena. This type of argument was produced by Beck (1991) who, in a reply to Goldstein (1988), claimed that only \ xed period models are meaningful models of cyclic phenomena".We argue that wavelet analysis|a mathematical framework developed in the mid-1980s (Grossman and Morlet 1984; Goupillaud et al. 1984) | is a very viable alternative to study cycles in political time-series. It has the advantage of staying close to the frequency domain approach of spectral analysis while addressing its main limitations. Its principal contribution comes from estimating the spectral characteristics of a time-series as a function of time, thus revealing how its di erent periodic components may change over time. The rest of article proceeds as follows. In the section \Time-frequency Analysis", we study in some detail the continuous wavelet transform and compare its time-frequency properties with the more standard tool for that purpose, the windowed Fourier transform. In the section \The British Political Pendulum", we apply wavelet analysis to essentially the same data analyzed by Lebo and Norpoth (2007) and Merrill, Grofman and Brunell (2011) and try to provide a more nuanced answer to the same question discussed by these authors: do British electoral politics exhibit cycles? Finally, in the last section, we present a concise list of future directions.

A educação para a saúde em meio escolar como veículo construtor para a mudança de comportamentos alimentares

Relatório de estágio de mestrado em Educação Pré-Escolar e Ensino do 1º Ciclo do Ensino Básico

Aprender a debater: o debate como atividade de interação e de participação democrática

Relatório de estágio de mestrado em Ensino de Inglês e de Espanhol no 3º Ciclo do Ensino Básico e no Ensino Secundário

Escola, democracia e autonomia: uma análise das políticas e práticas no cotidiano escolar

Tese de Doutoramento em Ciências da Educação - Especialidade em Política Educativa

Perceções de docentes do ensino básico e secundário sobre o papel da supervisão pedagógica enquanto contexto de desenvolvimento profissional: um estudo com professores de geografia

Tese de Doutoramento em Ciências da Educação (área de especialização em Supervisão Pedagógica)

Temporal analysis of CHAVE collection

Lecture Notes in Computer Science, 9309

Analysis of portuguese residential buildings’ needs and proposed solutions

The Portuguese housing sector experienced a significant growth throughout the 20th century, particularly in the last quarter, after the democratic revolution in 1974. In fact, the number of buildings built between 1970 and 1990 is more than one third of the buildings actually existing in Portugal. Therefore most of them were built before the publication of the first regulation concerning the energy efficiency in buildings. Regarding this scenario, it would be expected that rehabilitation activities would represent most of the current construction activities. However, given some remaining barriers from old social policies, this situation is not observed; actually building retrofitting is the least significant sector, accentuating the degradation level of major part of the Portuguese housing stock. Several studies show that the main problems are found in the buildings envelope elements, such as roofs and façades. Based on this context, the aim of this paper is to introduce some examples of building retrofitting systems that, adapted to the Portuguese main needs and requirements may represent sustainable solutions to overcome the identified needs of Portuguese buildings' envelope.

Culturas de escola e celebração da excelência: cartografia das distinções em Portugal

As orientações de política educativa de âmbito global têm colocado no centro das suas prioridades a promoção da excelência, da qualidade e da eficácia dos sistemas de ensino e formação. Este texto propõe-se debater o impacto desta agenda na realidade educativa portuguesa a partir de um olhar sobre a política em estado prático, isto é, sobre os mecanismos de apropriação ocorridos no espaço organizacional e sua articulação com as especificidades culturais da escola. À luz deste enfoque, pretende-se compreender de que forma a cultura de escola redefine localmente a sua missão educativa, ajustando-a aos propósitos democráticos e igualitários e/ou às exigências de promoção da excelência e do mérito. Partindo da hipótese de que as dimensões culturais exercem um papel central na recontextualização das políticas educativas, procurou-se identificar no sistema educativo português o alcance de um dos rituais mais expressivos da missão da escola: os rituais de distinção dos melhores alunos. Da análise de conteúdo efetuada a cerca de 1500 documentos produzidos no contexto das escolas públicas com ensino secundário, resultou um mapeamento nacional dos rituais de distinção. As conclusões apontam para uma forte adesão das instituições com ensino secundário aos rituais de distinção ou de reconhecimento público do mérito. Contudo, nem a sua configuração nem os critérios de seleção apresentam um carácter uniforme, o que nos aponta para a existência de distintas concetualizações de excelência decorrentes das diferentes culturas de escola e do seu papel na definição da sua política e do seu critério de sucesso.

Challenges and confusion in media regulation: a four-country comparison

[Excerto] ln this chapter we discuss recent developments and challenges in European media and communication policy, focusing on the period following the 2008 global financial crisis. We are especially interested in the implications of the financial crisis and its political repercussions nationally (austerity measures and cuts to public services, growing anti-politics sentiments and widespread dissatisfaction with free-market capitalism and representative democracy) for media and communication policy, understood here in a broad sense, so as to include ali electronic communications, such as the Internet, mobile communications, social media etc. Our overarching concern is with the implications of developments in media and communication policy for the democratic functions of the media in Europe (...).

Cosméticos no Youtube: marcas vs youtubers: em estudo exploratório

Dissertação de mestrado em Design de Comunicação de Moda

Frameworks no desenvolvimento de software: o caso da Elevation da PRIMAVERA BSS

Dissertação de mestrado integrado em Engenharia e Gestão de Sistemas de Informação

Políticas, processos e atores de privatização da educação em Portugal: apontamentos

Procurou-se contribuir para esboçar uma problemática de pesquisa em torno da privatização em educação, no quadro das relações entre o Estado e os domínios público e privado e tomando como horizonte a construção do direito fundamental à educação e do bem-estar social, situados no Portugal democrático. Argumentou-se que o Estado e as políticas públicas têm, nestes 40 anos, desempenhado um papel central naqueles processos. Durante muito tempo, com fases e combinações distintas, pode observar-se uma espécie de duplicidade na ação estatal, com o acento tónico ora na expansão e consolidação do sistema público, ora no apoio e sustentação de atores e dinâmicas de ampliação do espaço e da influência privados, às vezes assumindo simultaneamente uma e outra orientação em setores diferenciados. Sugere-se, no entanto, que, desde 2011, no quadro de políticas regressivas austeritárias de ajustamento estrutural, com origem na União Europeia, se assistiu a uma rutura em favor de um projeto societal neoliberal radical que, a ser bem sucedido, procura instituir um sistema educativo pobre para pobres e alterar o estatuto e o papel do direito à educação e do sistema público que constitucionalmente o realiza.

HPV DNA testing with cytology triage in cervical cancer screening: Influence of revealing HPV infection status

BACKGROUND: Knowledge of cervical human papillomavirus (HPV) status might influence a cytotechnician's assessment of cellular abnormalities. The authors compared original cytotechnicians' Papanicolaou (Pap) readings for which HPV status was concealed with Pap rereads for which HPV status was revealed separately for 3 screening populations. METHODS: Previously collected cervical Pap smears and clinical data were obtained from the Canadian Cervical Cancer Screening Trial (study A), the Democratic Republic of Congo Community-Based Screening Study (study B), and the Brazilian Investigation into Nutrition and Cervical Cancer Prevention (study C). Smears were reread with knowledge of HPV status for all HPV-positive women as well as a sample of HPV-negative women. Diagnostic performance of Pap cytology was compared between original readings and rereads. RESULTS: A total of 1767 Pap tests were reread. Among 915 rereads for HPV-positive women, the contrast between "revealed" and "concealed" Pap readings demonstrated revisions from negative to positive results for 109 women (cutoff was atypical squamous cells of undetermined significance or worse) and 124 women (cutoff was low-grade squamous intraepithelial lesions [LSIL] or worse). For a disease threshold of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia of grade 2 or worse, specificity significantly declined at the atypical squamous cells of undetermined significance cutoff for studies A (86.6% to 75.3%) and C (42.5% to 15.5%), and at the LSIL cutoff for study C (61.9% to 37.6%). Sensitivity remained nearly unchanged between readings, except in study C, in which reread performance was superior (91.3% vs 71.9% for the LSIL cutoff). CONCLUSIONS: A reduction in the diagnostic accuracy of Pap cytology was observed when revealing patients' cervical HPV status, possibly due to a heightened awareness of potential abnormalities, which led to more false-positive results. Cancer (Cancer Cytopathol) 2015. (c) 2015 American Cancer Society.

Desafios de uma comunidade minoritária: os apoios sociais na comunidade cigana de Barcelos

Dissertação de mestrado em Crime Diferença e Desigualdade

A insolvência no contexto dos grupos de sociedades

Dissertação de mestrado em Direito dos Contratos e da Empresa