16 resultados para Prediction theory.
em Universidade do Minho
Resumo:
The computation of the optical conductivity of strained and deformed graphene is discussed within the framework of quantum field theory in curved spaces. The analytical solutions of the Dirac equation in an arbitrary static background geometry for one dimensional periodic deformations are computed, together with the corresponding Dirac propagator. Analytical expressions are given for the optical conductivity of strained and deformed graphene associated with both intra and interbrand transitions. The special case of small deformations is discussed and the result compared to the prediction of the tight-binding model.
Resumo:
Electric Vehicles (EVs) have limited energy storage capacity and the maximum autonomy range is strongly dependent of the driver's behaviour. Due to the fact of that batteries cannot be recharged quickly during a journey, it is essential that a precise range prediction is available to the driver of the EV. With this information, it is possible to check if the desirable destination is achievable without a stop to charge the batteries, or even, if to reach the destination it is necessary to perform an optimized driving (e.g., cutting the air-conditioning, among others EV parameters). The outcome of this research work is the development of an Electric Vehicle Assistant (EVA). This is an application for mobile devices that will help users to take efficient decisions about route planning, charging management and energy efficiency. Therefore, it will contribute to foster EVs adoption as a new paradigm in the transportation sector.
Resumo:
This paper aims at developing a collision prediction model for three-leg junctions located in national roads (NR) in Northern Portugal. The focus is to identify factors that contribute for collision type crashes in those locations, mainly factors related to road geometric consistency, since literature is scarce on those, and to research the impact of three modeling methods: generalized estimating equations, random-effects negative binomial models and random-parameters negative binomial models, on the factors of those models. The database used included data published between 2008 and 2010 of 177 three-leg junctions. It was split in three groups of contributing factors which were tested sequentially for each of the adopted models: at first only traffic, then, traffic and the geometric characteristics of the junctions within their area of influence; and, lastly, factors which show the difference between the geometric characteristics of the segments boarding the junctionsâ area of influence and the segment included in that area were added. The choice of the best modeling technique was supported by the result of a cross validation made to ascertain the best model for the three sets of researched contributing factors. The models fitted with random-parameters negative binomial models had the best performance in the process. In the best models obtained for every modeling technique, the characteristics of the road environment, including proxy measures for the geometric consistency, along with traffic volume, contribute significantly to the number of collisions. Both the variables concerning junctions and the various national highway segments in their area of influence, as well as variations from those characteristics concerning roadway segments which border the already mentioned area of influence have proven their relevance and, therefore, there is a rightful need to incorporate the effect of geometric consistency in the three-leg junctions safety studies.
Resumo:
Hospitals are nowadays collecting vast amounts of data related with patient records. All this data hold valuable knowledge that can be used to improve hospital decision making. Data mining techniques aim precisely at the extraction of useful knowledge from raw data. This work describes an implementation of a medical data mining project approach based on the CRISP-DM methodology. Recent real-world data, from 2000 to 2013, were collected from a Portuguese hospital and related with inpatient hospitalization. The goal was to predict generic hospital Length Of Stay based on indicators that are commonly available at the hospitalization process (e.g., gender, age, episode type, medical specialty). At the data preparation stage, the data were cleaned and variables were selected and transformed, leading to 14 inputs. Next, at the modeling stage, a regression approach was adopted, where six learning methods were compared: Average Prediction, Multiple Regression, Decision Tree, Artificial Neural Network ensemble, Support Vector Machine and Random Forest. The best learning model was obtained by the Random Forest method, which presents a high quality coefficient of determination value (0.81). This model was then opened by using a sensitivity analysis procedure that revealed three influential input attributes: the hospital episode type, the physical service where the patient is hospitalized and the associated medical specialty. Such extracted knowledge confirmed that the obtained predictive model is credible and with potential value for supporting decisions of hospital managers.
Resumo:
Customer lifetime value (LTV) enables using client characteristics, such as recency, frequency and monetary (RFM) value, to describe the value of a client through time in terms of profitability. We present the concept of LTV applied to telemarketing for improving the return-on-investment, using a recent (from 2008 to 2013) and real case study of bank campaigns to sell long- term deposits. The goal was to benefit from past contacts history to extract additional knowledge. A total of twelve LTV input variables were tested, un- der a forward selection method and using a realistic rolling windows scheme, highlighting the validity of five new LTV features. The results achieved by our LTV data-driven approach using neural networks allowed an improvement up to 4 pp in the Lift cumulative curve for targeting the deposit subscribers when compared with a baseline model (with no history data). Explanatory knowledge was also extracted from the proposed model, revealing two highly relevant LTV features, the last result of the previous campaign to sell the same product and the frequency of past client successes. The obtained results are particularly valuable for contact center companies, which can improve pre- dictive performance without even having to ask for more information to the companies they serve.
Resumo:
Dissertação de mestrado integrado em Psicologia
Resumo:
This article describes a search for high-mass resonances decaying to a pair of photons using a sample of 20.3 fb−1 of pp collisions at s√=8 TeV recorded with the ATLAS detector at the Large Hadron Collider. The data are found to be in agreement with the Standard Model prediction, and limits are reported in the framework of the Randall-Sundrum model. This theory leads to the prediction of graviton states, the lightest of which could be observed at the Large Hadron Collider. A lower limit of 2.66 (1.41) TeV at 95% confidence level is set on the mass of the lightest graviton for couplings of k/M¯¯¯¯Pl=0.1 (0.01).
Resumo:
Due to the fact that different injection molding conditions tailor the mechanical response of the thermoplastic material, such effect must be considered earlier in the product development process. The existing approaches implemented in different commercial software solutions are very limited in their capabilities to estimate the influence of processing conditions on the mechanical properties. Thus, the accuracy of predictive simulations could be improved. In this study, we demonstrate how to establish straightforward processing-impact property relationships of talc-filled injection-molded polypropylene disc-shaped parts by assessing the thermomechanical environment (TME). To investigate the relationship between impact properties and the key operative variables (flow rate, melt and mold temperature, and holding pressure), the design of experiments approach was applied to systematically vary the TME of molded samples. The TME is characterized on computer flow simulation outputsanddefined bytwo thermomechanical indices (TMI): the cooling index (CI; associated to the core features) and the thermo-stress index (TSI; related to the skin features). The TMI methodology coupled to an integrated simulation program has been developed as a tool to predict the impact response. The dynamic impact properties (peak force, peak energy, and puncture energy) were evaluated using instrumented falling weight impact tests and were all found to be similarly affected by the imposed TME. The most important molding parameters affecting the impact properties were found to be the processing temperatures (melt andmold). CI revealed greater importance for the impact response than TSI. The developed integrative tool provided truthful predictions for the envisaged impact properties.
Resumo:
This Letter reports a measurement of the exclusive γγ→ℓ+ℓ−(ℓ=e,μ) cross-section in proton--proton collisions at a centre-of-mass energy of 7 TeV by the ATLAS experiment at the LHC, based on an integrated luminosity of 4.6 fb−1. For the electron or muon pairs satisfying exclusive selection criteria, a fit to the dilepton acoplanarity distribution is used to extract the fiducial cross-sections. The cross-section in the electron channel is determined to be σexcl.γγ→e+e−=0.428±0.035(stat.)±0.018(syst.) pb for a phase-space region with invariant mass of the electron pairs greater than 24 GeV, in which both electrons have transverse momentum pT>12 GeV and pseudorapidity |η|<2.4. For muon pairs with invariant mass greater than 20 GeV, muon transverse momentum pT>10 GeV and pseudorapidity |η|<2.4, the cross-section is determined to be σexcl.γγ→μ+μ−=0.628±0.032(stat.)±0.021(syst.) pb. When proton absorptive effects due to the finite size of the proton are taken into account in the theory calculation, the measured cross-sections are found to be consistent with the theory prediction.
Resumo:
The identification of new and druggable targets in bacteria is a critical endeavour in pharmaceutical research of novel antibiotics to fight infectious agents. The rapid emergence of resistant bacteria makes today's antibiotics more and more ineffective, consequently increasing the need for new pharmacological targets and novel classes of antibacterial drugs. A new model that combines the singular value decomposition technique with biological filters comprised of a set of protein properties associated with bacterial drug targets and similarity to protein-coding essential genes of E. coli has been developed to predict potential drug targets in the Enterobacteriaceae family [1]. This model identified 99 potential target proteins amongst the studied bacterial family, exhibiting eight different functions that suggest that the disruption of the activities of these proteins is critical for cells. Out of these candidates, one was selected for target confirmation. To find target modulators, receptor-based pharmacophore hypotheses were built and used in the screening of a virtual library of compounds. Postscreening filters were based on physicochemical and topological similarity to known Gram-negative antibiotics and applied to the retrieved compounds. Screening hits passing all filters were docked into the proteins catalytic groove and 15 of the most promising compounds were purchased from their chemical vendors to be experimentally tested in vitro. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first attempt to rationalize the search of compounds to probe the relevance of this candidate as a new pharmacological target.
Resumo:
The normalized differential cross section for top-quark pair production in association with at least one jet is studied as a function of the inverse of the invariant mass of the tt¯+1-jet system. This distribution can be used for a precise determination of the top-quark mass since gluon radiation depends on the mass of the quarks. The experimental analysis is based on proton--proton collision data collected by the ATLAS detector at the LHC with a centre-of-mass energy of 7 TeV corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 4.6 fb−1. The selected events were identified using the lepton+jets top-quark-pair decay channel, where lepton refers to either an electron or a muon. The observed distribution is compared to a theoretical prediction at next-to-leading-order accuracy in quantum chromodynamics using the pole-mass scheme. With this method, the measured value of the top-quark pole mass, mpolet, is: mpolet =173.7 ± 1.5 (stat.) ± 1.4 (syst.) +1.0−0.5 (theory) GeV. This result represents the most precise measurement of the top-quark pole mass to date.
Resumo:
Currently, the quality of the Indonesian national road network is inadequate due to several constraints, including overcapacity and overloaded trucks. The high deterioration rate of the road infrastructure in developing countries along with major budgetary restrictions and high growth in traffic have led to an emerging need for improving the performance of the highway maintenance system. However, the high number of intervening factors and their complex effects require advanced tools to successfully solve this problem. The high learning capabilities of Data Mining (DM) are a powerful solution to this problem. In the past, these tools have been successfully applied to solve complex and multi-dimensional problems in various scientific fields. Therefore, it is expected that DM can be used to analyze the large amount of data regarding the pavement and traffic, identify the relationship between variables, and provide information regarding the prediction of the data. In this paper, we present a new approach to predict the International Roughness Index (IRI) of pavement based on DM techniques. DM was used to analyze the initial IRI data, including age, Equivalent Single Axle Load (ESAL), crack, potholes, rutting, and long cracks. This model was developed and verified using data from an Integrated Indonesia Road Management System (IIRMS) that was measured with the National Association of Australian State Road Authorities (NAASRA) roughness meter. The results of the proposed approach are compared with the IIRMS analytical model adapted to the IRI, and the advantages of the new approach are highlighted. We show that the novel data-driven model is able to learn (with high accuracy) the complex relationships between the IRI and the contributing factors of overloaded trucks
Resumo:
A modified version of the metallic-phase pseudofermion dynamical theory (PDT) of the 1D Hubbard model is introduced for the spin dynamical correlation functions of the half-filled 1D Hubbard model Mott– Hubbard phase. The Mott–Hubbard insulator phase PDT is applied to the study of the model longitudinal and transverse spin dynamical structure factors at finite magnetic field h, focusing in particular on the sin- gularities at excitation energies in the vicinity of the lower thresholds. The relation of our theoretical results to both condensed-matter and ultra-cold atom systems is discussed.
Resumo:
We study the low frequency absorption cross section of spherically symmetric nonextremal d-dimensional black holes. In the presence of α′ corrections, this quantity must have an explicit dependence on the Hawking temperature of the form 1/TH. This property of the low frequency absorption cross section is shared by the D1-D5 system from type IIB superstring theory already at the classical level, without α′ corrections. We apply our formula to the simplest example, the classical d-dimensional Reissner-Nordstr¨om solution, checking that the obtained formula for the cross section has a smooth extremal limit. We also apply it for a d-dimensional Tangherlini-like solution with α′3 corrections.
Resumo:
We analyze the low frequency absorption cross section of minimally coupled massless scalar fields by different kinds of charged static black holes in string theory, namely the D1–D5 system in d=5 and a four dimensional dyonic four-charged black hole. In each case we show that this cross section always has the form of some parameter of the solution divided by the black hole Hawking temperature. We also verify in each case that, despite its explicit temperature dependence, such quotient is finite in the extremal limit, giving a well defined cross section. We show that this precise explicit temperature dependence also arises in the same cross section for black holes with string \alpha' corrections: it is actually induced by them.