Application of wavelets to the study of political history

\The idea that social processes develop in a cyclical manner is somewhat like a `Lorelei'. Researchers are lured to it because of its theoretical promise, only to become entangled in (if not wrecked by) messy problems of empirical inference. The reasoning leading to hypotheses of some kind of cycle is often elegant enough, yet the data from repeated observations rarely display the supposed cyclical pattern. (...) In addition, various `schools' seem to exist which frequently arrive at di erent conclusions on the basis of the same data." (van der Eijk and Weber 1987:271). Much of the empirical controversies around these issues arise because of three distinct problems: the coexistence of cycles of di erent periodicities, the possibility of transient cycles and the existence of cycles without xed periodicity. In some cases, there are no reasons to expect any of these phenomena to be relevant. Seasonality caused by Christmas is one such example (Wen 2002). In such cases, researchers mostly rely on spectral analysis and Auto-Regressive Moving-Average (ARMA) models to estimate the periodicity of cycles.1 However, and this is particularly true in social sciences, sometimes there are good theoretical reasons to expect irregular cycles. In such cases, \the identi cation of periodic movement in something like the vote is a daunting task all by itself. When a pendulum swings with an irregular beat (frequency), and the extent of the swing (amplitude) is not constant, mathematical functions like sine-waves are of no use."(Lebo and Norpoth 2007:73) In the past, this di culty has led to two di erent approaches. On the one hand, some researchers dismissed these methods altogether, relying on informal alternatives that do not meet rigorous standards of statistical inference. Goldstein (1985 and 1988), studying the severity of Great power wars is one such example. On the other hand, there are authors who transfer the assumptions of spectral analysis (and ARMA models) into fundamental assumptions about the nature of social phenomena. This type of argument was produced by Beck (1991) who, in a reply to Goldstein (1988), claimed that only \ xed period models are meaningful models of cyclic phenomena".We argue that wavelet analysis|a mathematical framework developed in the mid-1980s (Grossman and Morlet 1984; Goupillaud et al. 1984) | is a very viable alternative to study cycles in political time-series. It has the advantage of staying close to the frequency domain approach of spectral analysis while addressing its main limitations. Its principal contribution comes from estimating the spectral characteristics of a time-series as a function of time, thus revealing how its di erent periodic components may change over time. The rest of article proceeds as follows. In the section \Time-frequency Analysis", we study in some detail the continuous wavelet transform and compare its time-frequency properties with the more standard tool for that purpose, the windowed Fourier transform. In the section \The British Political Pendulum", we apply wavelet analysis to essentially the same data analyzed by Lebo and Norpoth (2007) and Merrill, Grofman and Brunell (2011) and try to provide a more nuanced answer to the same question discussed by these authors: do British electoral politics exhibit cycles? Finally, in the last section, we present a concise list of future directions.

Aplicação da teoria das opções reais em análise de projetos estratégicos: um estudo de caso sobre o valor da opção de prosseguir com os investimentos no programa de desenvolvimento de submarinos da Marinha do Brasil

Dissertação de mestrado em Estudos de Gestão

Escola, democracia e autonomia: uma análise das políticas e práticas no cotidiano escolar

Tese de Doutoramento em Ciências da Educação - Especialidade em Política Educativa

Álbuns narrativos e aprendizagens no pré-escolar. Um estudo de caso

Tese de Doutoramento em Estudos da Criança (área de especialização em Literatura para a Infância).

Radio mobility in the digital era: interactivity, participation and content share possibilities in Iberian broadcasters

In the context of the scientific research into radio, recent years have encouraged many theories about the meaning of a post-radio (Oliveira & Portela, 2011), thus enlisting several parameters regarding the inclusion of contemporary radio in the digital and online environments. This digital migration has led to the development of mobile applications for radio, broadening the communicative potential of audiences (Aguado, Feijoo & Martínez, 2013), as well as promoting convergence of interactive content among listeners-users. Aware of this opportunity, the main broadcasters in Spain and Portugal have broadened their radiophonic scope to the mobile platform, especially geared towards smartphones through the development of mobile applications, commonly known as apps (Cerezo, 2010). As a symbol of a culture in permanent changing, smartphones not only provide greater easiness in terms of access and interaction, but also afford larger opportunities for disseminating content among audiences, a phenomenon that some studies have labelled as user distributed content (Villi, 2012). This article presents an exploratory analysis of the current policies of the main Spanish and Portuguese radio broadcasters regarding mobile applications, evaluating the different levels of interaction and participation in these platforms. This observation led to the conclusion, among other findings, that the mobile platform represents a supplementary channel for traditional FM radio, rather than a new medium with its own language and expression.

Um estudo sobre gênero no Brasil do século XIX: o caso Anna Jansen, a Rainha do Maranhão

Dissertação de mestrado em Contabilidade

The impact of carbon source in Candida albicans virulence: participation of RLM1 in pathogen host interaction

Dissertação de mestrado em Genética Molecular

ACL injuries identifiable for pre-participation imagiological analysis: Risk factors

Identification of pre-participation risk factors for noncontact anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) injuries has been attracting a great deal of interest in the sports medicine and traumatology communities. Appropriate methods that enable predicting which patients could benefit from pre- ventive strategies are most welcome. This would enable athlete-specific training and conditioning or tailored equipment in order to develop appropriate strategies to reduce incidence of injury. In order to accomplish these goals, the ideal system should be able to assess both anatomic and functional features. Complementarily, the screening method must be cost-effective and suited for widespread application. Anatomic study protocol requiring only standard X rays could answer some of such demands. Dynamic MRI/CT evaluation and electronically assisted pivot-shift evaluation can be powerful tools providing complementary information. These upcoming insights, when validated and properly combined, envision changing pre-participation knee examination in the near future. Herein different methods (validated or under research) aiming to improve the capacity to identify persons/athletes with higher risk for ACL injury are overviewed. 

Enquadramento para a compreensão dos impactos do Open Government Data

Dissertação de mestrado integrado em Engenharia e Gestão de Sistemas de Informação

External and internal dynamics in the EU's counter-terrorism policy: a political and legal analysis

Tese de Doutoramento em Ciência Política e Relações Internacionais

The Portuguese programme one laptop per child: political, educational and social impact

In 2008, the XVII Portuguese Constitutional Government launched the ‘e.escolinha’ programme, within the Technological Plan for Education, which set out the distribution of a computer, called ‘Magalhães’, designed for chil-dren attending the 1st cycle of basic education. Suspended in 2011 by the XIX Government, this programme has allowed, however, almost 500 000 children to have access to a personal computer. It was expected that this political measure would “revolutionise” the national education system by bringing changes to the pedagogical practices of teachers and the learning processes of children and by achieving educational success, in general. Based on documental analysis and on a set of interviews with key decision-makers in conceiving, implementing and monitoring this governmental initiative, the fi rst part of this chapter presents and analyses the ‘e.escolinha’ initiative and the policies be-hind that governmental programme, seeking to disassemble those objectives and provide some insights into the relationship between discourses, rhetoric, and reality. After that, the chapter focuses on children’s uses and practices with the ‘Magalhães’ laptop, at school and at home. Based on the results of questionnaires fi lled in by approximately 1500 children from 32 First Cycle public schools of the municipality of Braga (north of Portugal) and also from questionnaires applied to their parents and teachers, this chapter intends to analyse the real impact of this initiative for children, family and school. It also seeks to discuss the contribution of this educational policy to children’s digital literacy and also to their own and their families’ social and digital inclusion. To understand if it represented an added value to teachers’ pedagogical practice is another of its aims. The fi ndings point out a major focus on technology and access rather than on uses and competences or even on social, educational and cultural change. In fact, a major conclusion is the existence of a strong gap between the policy and the practices, typical of a top-down policy design. This study is an integrant part of a research project titled “Navigating with ‘Magalhães’: Study on the Impact of Digital Media in Schoolchildren” conducted at the University of Minho, Portugal, financed by the Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology [PTDC/CCI-COM/101381/2008] and co-funded by the European Regional Development Fund [COMPETE: FCOMP-01-0124-FEDER-009056].

Perspetivas públicas em relação aos biobancos médicos e para investigação científica em Portugal

Dissertação de mestrado em Crime, Diferença e Desigualdade

Europa: uma questão profana ou sagrada?: estudo sobre as relações entre o poder político e as religiões no âmbito do processo de integração europeia

Dissertação de mestrado em Direito da União Europeia

O reforço da democracia local no âmbito da reforma da administração autárquica

Dissertação de mestrado em Direito das Autarquias Locais

Listening to the public: enacting power : citizen access, Standing and influence in public participation discourses

Public participation in environmental governance is typically associated with citizen access to power despite many closures and limitations having been identified in participatory processes. This article proposes an analytical framework to analyse discursive practices involved in public consultation processes. Critical Discourse Analysis is used to examine and appraise citizens’ access, standing and influence. We apply that framework to a ‘notice and comment’ process on a hydroelectric power plan in Portugal and show that it was discursively managed to justify the decision of constructing 10 large dams and to reject critical or alternative views. Citizens’ access, standing and influence were constrained through diverse discursive practices which (re)produced very unequal power relationsbetween policy proponents and participating individuals. More generally, the article illustrates the potential of Critical Discourse Analysis to assess voice(s) in policy processes. Focusing on argumentative, interactional and rhetorical levels, and how they are interwoven in public consultation discourses, the proposed framework is conceivably applicable in other studies.