Application of wavelets to the study of political history

\The idea that social processes develop in a cyclical manner is somewhat like a `Lorelei'. Researchers are lured to it because of its theoretical promise, only to become entangled in (if not wrecked by) messy problems of empirical inference. The reasoning leading to hypotheses of some kind of cycle is often elegant enough, yet the data from repeated observations rarely display the supposed cyclical pattern. (...) In addition, various `schools' seem to exist which frequently arrive at di erent conclusions on the basis of the same data." (van der Eijk and Weber 1987:271). Much of the empirical controversies around these issues arise because of three distinct problems: the coexistence of cycles of di erent periodicities, the possibility of transient cycles and the existence of cycles without xed periodicity. In some cases, there are no reasons to expect any of these phenomena to be relevant. Seasonality caused by Christmas is one such example (Wen 2002). In such cases, researchers mostly rely on spectral analysis and Auto-Regressive Moving-Average (ARMA) models to estimate the periodicity of cycles.1 However, and this is particularly true in social sciences, sometimes there are good theoretical reasons to expect irregular cycles. In such cases, \the identi cation of periodic movement in something like the vote is a daunting task all by itself. When a pendulum swings with an irregular beat (frequency), and the extent of the swing (amplitude) is not constant, mathematical functions like sine-waves are of no use."(Lebo and Norpoth 2007:73) In the past, this di culty has led to two di erent approaches. On the one hand, some researchers dismissed these methods altogether, relying on informal alternatives that do not meet rigorous standards of statistical inference. Goldstein (1985 and 1988), studying the severity of Great power wars is one such example. On the other hand, there are authors who transfer the assumptions of spectral analysis (and ARMA models) into fundamental assumptions about the nature of social phenomena. This type of argument was produced by Beck (1991) who, in a reply to Goldstein (1988), claimed that only \ xed period models are meaningful models of cyclic phenomena".We argue that wavelet analysis|a mathematical framework developed in the mid-1980s (Grossman and Morlet 1984; Goupillaud et al. 1984) | is a very viable alternative to study cycles in political time-series. It has the advantage of staying close to the frequency domain approach of spectral analysis while addressing its main limitations. Its principal contribution comes from estimating the spectral characteristics of a time-series as a function of time, thus revealing how its di erent periodic components may change over time. The rest of article proceeds as follows. In the section \Time-frequency Analysis", we study in some detail the continuous wavelet transform and compare its time-frequency properties with the more standard tool for that purpose, the windowed Fourier transform. In the section \The British Political Pendulum", we apply wavelet analysis to essentially the same data analyzed by Lebo and Norpoth (2007) and Merrill, Grofman and Brunell (2011) and try to provide a more nuanced answer to the same question discussed by these authors: do British electoral politics exhibit cycles? Finally, in the last section, we present a concise list of future directions.

A confraria do comentário do futebol na TV: evolução dos programas televisivos feitos com adeptos dos maiores clubes portugueses

Em Portugal, os programas de televisão feitos com adeptos notáveis de três grandes clubes de futebol correspondem a um formato com menos de uma década e meia de existência: apareceram primeiro na RTP2 e, logo a seguir, na SIC. Os canais generalistas rapidamente os adoptaram como conteúdos privilegiados para atrair audiência. Hoje constituem âncoras das grelhas dos três canais temáticos de informação, rivalizando entre si nos comentadores permanentes que conseguem fixar em estúdio. Apresentados por jornalistas, estes programas criam momentos de grande polémica e, com isso, marcam, de certa forma, a agenda do campo do futebol. Neste artigo, explicamos a génese destes formatos, traçamos o seu percurso na TV portuguesa e, através de entrevistas aos seus responsáveis editoriais, analisamos a estratégia que seguem na construção do alinhamento, discutimos a distância que mantêm dos clubes que comentam e perspectivamos formas de evolução deste tipo de conteúdos televisivos. Uma linha sobressai neste trabalho: quem participa nestes programas é uma elite de comentadores que se apresentam como adeptos do Futebol Clube do Porto, do Sporting e do Benfica, mas que mais não são do que uma confraria do comentário do futebol que semanalmente contribui para a construção de um espaço público cada vez mais rarefeito em torno daquilo que se discute no futebol.

Vision-based hand Wheel-chair control

Several studies have shown that people with disabilities benefit substantially from access to a means of independent mobility and assistive technology. Researchers are using technology originally developed for mobile robots to create easier to use wheelchairs. With this kind of technology people with disabilities can gain a degree of independence in performing daily life activities. In this work a computer vision system is presented, able to drive a wheelchair with a minimum number of finger commands. The user hand is detected and segmented with the use of a kinect camera, and fingertips are extracted from depth information, and used as wheelchair commands.

Da 'portugalidade' à lusofonia

Tese de Doutoramento em Ciências da Comunicação (Especialidade em Teoria da Cultura)

Aging and Alzheimer's disease: Searching for novel molecular cues

Tese de Doutoramento em Ciências da Saúde

A implementação do modelo de atendimento à diversidade como resposta eficaz ao apoio a alunos com necessidades especiais na região norte de Portugal

Tese de Doutoramento em Estudos da Criança (área de especialização em Educação Especial)

Discursos para a Independência: a Escócia e o Referendo de 2014

Dissertação de mestrado em Ciência Política

Promoting independent living and recreation in life through ambient assisted living technology

The increase in life expectancy with a decrease in birth rates is contributing to the ageing of the European population. This phenomenon, coupled with greater awareness of the quality of life, the need to have cost-efficient assistive care, the intention of people to live independently in their homes, and the technological developments in recent decades, have contributed to the emergence of the concept of ambient assisted living (AAL). AAL solutions aim to provide healthy and safe ageing to users through promoting independence in performing daily activities and interacting with technology, taking into consideration the deterioration of the users’ capabilities and the reduced costs of the solutions. In this chapter, AAL developments of monitoring activities of daily living (ADLs) and participation in a virtual community with the selected stakeholders are introduced, their roadmap with the expected technological developments are described, and the expected impact of these solutions on the end users of the developed solutions are discussed. This enables a real user guidance structure that represents the different needs and limitations of each user, presenting a highly structured project based on personas and possible solutions for them. The AAL4ALL Ambient Assisted Living for All (ALL4ALL) project is considered here as a case study to analyze and illustrate the ALL concepts discussed in this chapter.

Measuring university-to-work success: development of a new scale

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to develop a subjective multidimensional measure of early career success during university-to-work transition. Design/methodology/approach – The construct of university-to-work success (UWS) was defined in terms of intrinsic and extrinsic career outcomes, and a three-stage study was conducted to create a new scale. Findings – A preliminary set of items was developed and tested by judges. Results showed the items had good content validity. Factor analyses indicated a four-factor structure and a second-order model with subscales to assess: career insertion and satisfaction, confidence in career future, income and financial independence, and adaptation to work. Third, the authors sought to confirm the hypothesized model examining the comparative fit of the scale and two alternative models. Results showed that fits for both the first- and second-order models were acceptable. Research limitations/implications – The proposed model has sound psychometric qualities, although the validated version of the scale was not able to incorporate all constructs envisaged by the initial theoretical model. Results indicated some direction for further refinement. Practical implications – The scale could be used as a tool for self-assessment or as an outcome measure to assess the efficacy of university-to-work programs in applied settings. Originality/value – This study provides a useful single measure to assess early career success during the university-to-work transition, and might facilitate testing of causal models which could help identify factors relevant for successful transition.

Análise estratégica da internacionalização da APFF- Administração do Porto da Figueira da Foz

Relatório de estágio de mestrado em Negócios Internacionais

Desenvolvimento de um Módulo Habitacional “embrionário” “Plug-in” de habitação unifamiliar

Dissertação de mestrado integrado em Arquitectura

Divulgação de informação sobre o governo das sociedades em Portugal: Extensão e determinantes

Tese de Doutoramento em Contabilidade

A crise política da Província de Goiás e o movimento separatista do Norte no período da independência do Brasil, 1820-1824

Dissertação de mestrado em História

As crianças-soldado na Serra Leoa e na Libéria: estudo comparado sobre o papel da ONU como provedor de segurança humana

Dissertação de mestrado em Relações Internacionais

Do kemalismo ao neo-otomanismo: o desenvolvimento político e a «Nova Turquia» de Recep Tayyip Erdogan (2003-2014)

Dissertação de mestrado em Ciência Política