Application of wavelets to the study of political history

\The idea that social processes develop in a cyclical manner is somewhat like a `Lorelei'. Researchers are lured to it because of its theoretical promise, only to become entangled in (if not wrecked by) messy problems of empirical inference. The reasoning leading to hypotheses of some kind of cycle is often elegant enough, yet the data from repeated observations rarely display the supposed cyclical pattern. (...) In addition, various `schools' seem to exist which frequently arrive at di erent conclusions on the basis of the same data." (van der Eijk and Weber 1987:271). Much of the empirical controversies around these issues arise because of three distinct problems: the coexistence of cycles of di erent periodicities, the possibility of transient cycles and the existence of cycles without xed periodicity. In some cases, there are no reasons to expect any of these phenomena to be relevant. Seasonality caused by Christmas is one such example (Wen 2002). In such cases, researchers mostly rely on spectral analysis and Auto-Regressive Moving-Average (ARMA) models to estimate the periodicity of cycles.1 However, and this is particularly true in social sciences, sometimes there are good theoretical reasons to expect irregular cycles. In such cases, \the identi cation of periodic movement in something like the vote is a daunting task all by itself. When a pendulum swings with an irregular beat (frequency), and the extent of the swing (amplitude) is not constant, mathematical functions like sine-waves are of no use."(Lebo and Norpoth 2007:73) In the past, this di culty has led to two di erent approaches. On the one hand, some researchers dismissed these methods altogether, relying on informal alternatives that do not meet rigorous standards of statistical inference. Goldstein (1985 and 1988), studying the severity of Great power wars is one such example. On the other hand, there are authors who transfer the assumptions of spectral analysis (and ARMA models) into fundamental assumptions about the nature of social phenomena. This type of argument was produced by Beck (1991) who, in a reply to Goldstein (1988), claimed that only \ xed period models are meaningful models of cyclic phenomena".We argue that wavelet analysis|a mathematical framework developed in the mid-1980s (Grossman and Morlet 1984; Goupillaud et al. 1984) | is a very viable alternative to study cycles in political time-series. It has the advantage of staying close to the frequency domain approach of spectral analysis while addressing its main limitations. Its principal contribution comes from estimating the spectral characteristics of a time-series as a function of time, thus revealing how its di erent periodic components may change over time. The rest of article proceeds as follows. In the section \Time-frequency Analysis", we study in some detail the continuous wavelet transform and compare its time-frequency properties with the more standard tool for that purpose, the windowed Fourier transform. In the section \The British Political Pendulum", we apply wavelet analysis to essentially the same data analyzed by Lebo and Norpoth (2007) and Merrill, Grofman and Brunell (2011) and try to provide a more nuanced answer to the same question discussed by these authors: do British electoral politics exhibit cycles? Finally, in the last section, we present a concise list of future directions.

An agent-based model to assess the attractiveness of industrial estates

This article describes the main approaches adopted in a study focused on planning industrial estates on a sub-regional scale. The study was supported by an agent-based model, using firms as agents to assess the attractiveness of industrial estates. The simulation was made by the NetLogo toolkit and the environment represents a geographical space. Three scenarios and four hypotheses were used in the simulation to test the impact of different policies on the attractiveness of industrial estates. Policies were distinguished by the level of municipal coordination at which they were implemented and by the type of intervention. In the model, the attractiveness of industrial estates was based on the level of facilities, amenities, accessibility and on the price of land in each industrial estate. Firms are able to move and relocate whenever they find an attractive estate. The relocating firms were selected by their size, location and distance to an industrial estate. Results show that a coordinated policy among municipalities is the most efficient policy to promote advanced-qualified estates. In these scenarios, it was observed that more industrial estates became attractive, more firms were relocated and more vacant lots were occupied. Furthermore, the results also indicate that the promotion of widespread industrial estates with poor-quality infrastructures and amenities is an inefficient policy to attract firms.

Business intelligence in banking: A literature analysis from 2002 to 2013 using Text Mining and latent Dirichlet allocation

telligence applications for the banking industry. Searches were performed in relevant journals resulting in 219 articles published between 2002 and 2013. To analyze such a large number of manuscripts, text mining techniques were used in pursuit for relevant terms on both business intelligence and banking domains. Moreover, the latent Dirichlet allocation modeling was used in or- der to group articles in several relevant topics. The analysis was conducted using a dictionary of terms belonging to both banking and business intelli- gence domains. Such procedure allowed for the identification of relationships between terms and topics grouping articles, enabling to emerge hypotheses regarding research directions. To confirm such hypotheses, relevant articles were collected and scrutinized, allowing to validate the text mining proce- dure. The results show that credit in banking is clearly the main application trend, particularly predicting risk and thus supporting credit approval or de- nial. There is also a relevant interest in bankruptcy and fraud prediction. Customer retention seems to be associated, although weakly, with targeting, justifying bank offers to reduce churn. In addition, a large number of ar- ticles focused more on business intelligence techniques and its applications, using the banking industry just for evaluation, thus, not clearly acclaiming for benefits in the banking business. By identifying these current research topics, this study also highlights opportunities for future research.

Os efeitos do ambiente térmico: avaliação subjetiva e numérica

Dissertação de mestrado integrado em Engenharia e Gestão Industrial

Search for massive supersymmetric particles decaying to many jets using the ATLAS detector in pp collisions at s√=8TeV

Results of a search for decays of massive particles to fully hadronic final states are presented. This search uses 20.3 fb−1 of data collected by the ATLAS detector in s√=8TeV proton--proton collisions at the LHC. Signatures based on high jet multiplicities without requirements on the missing transverse momentum are used to search for R-parity-violating supersymmetric gluino pair production with subsequent decays to quarks. The analysis is performed using a requirement on the number of jets, in combination with separate requirements on the number of b-tagged jets, as well as a topological observable formed from the scalar sum of the mass values of large-radius jets in the event. Results are interpreted in the context of all possible branching ratios of direct gluino decays to various quark flavors. No significant deviation is observed from the expected Standard Model backgrounds estimated using jet-counting as well as data-driven templates of the total-jet-mass spectra. Gluino pair decays to ten or more quarks via intermediate neutralinos are excluded for a gluino with mass mg~<1TeV for a neutralino mass mχ~01=500GeV. Direct gluino decays to six quarks are excluded for mg~<917GeV for light-flavor final states, and results for various flavor hypotheses are presented.

Search for new phenomena in the dijet mass distribution using pp collision data at s√=8 TeV with the ATLAS detector

Dijet events produced in LHC proton--proton collisions at a center-of-mass energy s√=8 TeV are studied with the ATLAS detector using the full 2012 data set, with an integrated luminosity of 20.3 fb−1. Dijet masses up to about 4.5 TeV are probed. No resonance-like features are observed in the dijet mass spectrum. Limits on the cross section times acceptance are set at the 95% credibility level for various hypotheses of new phenomena in terms of mass or energy scale, as appropriate. This analysis excludes excited quarks with a mass below 4.09 TeV, color-octet scalars with a mass below 2.72 TeV, heavy W′ bosons with a mass below 2.45 TeV, chiral W∗ bosons with a mass below 1.75 TeV, and quantum black holes with six extra space-time dimensions with threshold mass below 5.82 TeV.

Search for production of vector-like quark pairs and of four top quarks in the lepton-plus-jets final state in pp collisions at root 8=8 TeV with the ATLAS detector

A search for pair production of vector-like quarks, both up-type (T) and down-type (B), as well as for four-top-quark production, is presented. The search is based on pp collisions at s√=8 TeV recorded in 2012 with the ATLAS detector at the CERN Large Hadron Collider and corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 20.3 fb−1. Data are analysed in the lepton-plus-jets final state, characterised by an isolated electron or muon with high transverse momentum, large missing transverse momentum and multiple jets. Dedicated analyses are performed targeting three cases: a T quark with significant branching ratio to a W boson and a b-quark (TT¯→Wb+X), and both a T quark and a B quark with significant branching ratio to a Higgs boson and a third-generation quark (TT¯→Ht+X and BB¯→Hb+X respectively). No significant excess of events above the Standard Model expectation is observed, and 95% CL lower limits are derived on the masses of the vector-like T and B quarks under several branching ratio hypotheses assuming contributions from T→Wb, Zt, Ht and B→Wt, Zb, Hb decays. The 95% CL observed lower limits on the T quark mass range between 715 GeV and 950 GeV for all possible values of the branching ratios into the three decay modes, and are the most stringent constraints to date. Additionally, the most restrictive upper bounds on four-top-quark production are set in a number of new physics scenarios.

Determination of spin and parity of the Higgs boson in the WW∗→eνμν decay channel with the ATLAS detector

Studies of the spin and parity quantum numbers of the Higgs boson in the WW∗→eνμν final state are presented, based on proton--proton collision data collected by the ATLAS detector at the Large Hadron Collider, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 20.3 fb−1 at a centre-of-mass energy of s√=8 TeV. The Standard Model spin-parity JCP=0++ hypothesis is compared with alternative hypotheses for both spin and CP. The case where the observed resonance is a mixture of the Standard-Model-like Higgs boson and CP-even (JCP=0++) or CP-odd (JCP=0+−) Higgs boson in scenarios beyond the Standard Model is also studied. The data are found to be consistent with the Standard Model prediction and limits are placed on alternative spin and CP hypotheses, including CP mixing in different scenarios.

Prediction of drug targets in human pathogens

The identification of new and druggable targets in bacteria is a critical endeavour in pharmaceutical research of novel antibiotics to fight infectious agents. The rapid emergence of resistant bacteria makes today's antibiotics more and more ineffective, consequently increasing the need for new pharmacological targets and novel classes of antibacterial drugs. A new model that combines the singular value decomposition technique with biological filters comprised of a set of protein properties associated with bacterial drug targets and similarity to protein-coding essential genes of E. coli has been developed to predict potential drug targets in the Enterobacteriaceae family [1]. This model identified 99 potential target proteins amongst the studied bacterial family, exhibiting eight different functions that suggest that the disruption of the activities of these proteins is critical for cells. Out of these candidates, one was selected for target confirmation. To find target modulators, receptor-based pharmacophore hypotheses were built and used in the screening of a virtual library of compounds. Postscreening filters were based on physicochemical and topological similarity to known Gram-negative antibiotics and applied to the retrieved compounds. Screening hits passing all filters were docked into the proteins catalytic groove and 15 of the most promising compounds were purchased from their chemical vendors to be experimentally tested in vitro. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first attempt to rationalize the search of compounds to probe the relevance of this candidate as a new pharmacological target.

Strategies to regulate myopia progression with contact lenses: a review

Purpose: Higher myopic refractive errors are associated with serious ocular complications that can put visual function at risk. There is respective interest in slowing and if possible stopping myopia progression before it reaches a level associated with increased risk of secondary pathology. The purpose of this report was to review our understanding of the rationale(s) and success of contact lenses (CLs) used to reduce myopia progression. Methods: A review commenced by searching the PubMed database. The inclusion criteria stipulated publications of clinical trials evaluating the efficacy of CLs in regulating myopia progression based on the primary endpoint of changes in axial length measurements and published in peerreviewed journals. Other publications from conference proceedings or patents were exceptionally considered when no peer-review articles were available. Results: The mechanisms that presently support myopia regulation with CLs are based on the change of relative peripheral defocus and changing the foveal image quality signal to potentially interfere with the accommodative system. Ten clinical trials addressing myopia regulation with CLs were reviewed, including corneal refractive therapy (orthokeratology), peripheral gradient lenses, and bifocal (dual-focus) and multifocal lenses. Conclusions: CLs were reported to be well accepted, consistent, and safe methods to address myopia regulation in children. Corneal refractive therapy (orthokeratology) is so far the method with the largest demonstrated efficacy in myopia regulation across different ethnic groups. However, factors such as patient convenience, the degree of initial myopia, and non-CL treatments may also be considered. The combination of different strategies (i.e., central defocus, peripheral defocus, spectral filters, pharmaceutical delivery, and active lens-borne illumination) in a single device will present further testable hypotheses exploring how different mechanisms can reinforce or compete with each other to improve or reduce myopia regulation with CLs.

Direito Eleitoral e inelegibilidades por desvio de conduta: reflexões a partir da experiência brasileira

Dissertação de mestrado em Direito Administrativo

Facilitative effects of bi-hemispheric tDCS in cognitive deficits of Parkinson Disease patients

Parkinson’s disease (PD) is a progressive neurodegenerative disorder, primarily characterized by motor symptoms such as tremor, rigidity, bradykinesia, stiffness, slowness and impaired equilibrium. Although the motor symptoms have been the focus in PD, slight cognitive deficits are commonly found in non-demented and non-depressed PD patients, even in early stages of the disease, which have been linked to the subsequent development of pathological dementia. Thus, strongly reducing the quality of life (QoL). Both levodopa therapy and deep brain stimulation (DBS) have yield controversial results concerning the cognitive symptoms amelioration in PD patients. That does not seems to be the case with transcranial direct current stimulation (tDCS), although better stimulation parameters are needed. Therefore we hypothesize that simultaneously delivering cathodal tDCS (or ctDCS), over the right prefrontal cortex delivered with anodal tDCS (or atDCS) to left prefrontal cortex could be potentially beneficial for PD patients, either by mechanisms of homeostatic plasticity and by increases in the extracellular dopamine levels over the striatum.

Estudo da influência cultural no Design de Calçado

Dissertação de mestrado em Design e Marketing

Social entrepreneurship: does institutional environment make a difference?

The purpose of this paper is to contribute to a better understanding of the link between social entrepreneurs and institutional environment in Portugal. A quantitative approach is used in the study, and primary data were collected through an online survey. A questionnaire was emailed to, both, Portuguese Non-Governmental organizations and projects available on the Portuguese social stock exchange. In the analysis of the data were used descriptive statistics, factorial analysis and t-student tests to validate (or not) the research hypotheses. The results show that a favorable institutional environment has a low importance in the decision to develop social initiatives. This conclusion supports the idea that many social entrepreneurs can emerge even in developing regions where the institutional environment is weak. Therefore, social entrepreneurship could be an instrument of regional development and contribute to attenuate the social and economic differences among Portuguese regions.

O processo de adoção e implementação do Orçamento Participativo: os casos de Braga e Guimarães

Dissertação de mestrado em Administração Pública (área de especialização em Gestão Pública)