Application of wavelets to the study of political history

\The idea that social processes develop in a cyclical manner is somewhat like a `Lorelei'. Researchers are lured to it because of its theoretical promise, only to become entangled in (if not wrecked by) messy problems of empirical inference. The reasoning leading to hypotheses of some kind of cycle is often elegant enough, yet the data from repeated observations rarely display the supposed cyclical pattern. (...) In addition, various `schools' seem to exist which frequently arrive at di erent conclusions on the basis of the same data." (van der Eijk and Weber 1987:271). Much of the empirical controversies around these issues arise because of three distinct problems: the coexistence of cycles of di erent periodicities, the possibility of transient cycles and the existence of cycles without xed periodicity. In some cases, there are no reasons to expect any of these phenomena to be relevant. Seasonality caused by Christmas is one such example (Wen 2002). In such cases, researchers mostly rely on spectral analysis and Auto-Regressive Moving-Average (ARMA) models to estimate the periodicity of cycles.1 However, and this is particularly true in social sciences, sometimes there are good theoretical reasons to expect irregular cycles. In such cases, \the identi cation of periodic movement in something like the vote is a daunting task all by itself. When a pendulum swings with an irregular beat (frequency), and the extent of the swing (amplitude) is not constant, mathematical functions like sine-waves are of no use."(Lebo and Norpoth 2007:73) In the past, this di culty has led to two di erent approaches. On the one hand, some researchers dismissed these methods altogether, relying on informal alternatives that do not meet rigorous standards of statistical inference. Goldstein (1985 and 1988), studying the severity of Great power wars is one such example. On the other hand, there are authors who transfer the assumptions of spectral analysis (and ARMA models) into fundamental assumptions about the nature of social phenomena. This type of argument was produced by Beck (1991) who, in a reply to Goldstein (1988), claimed that only \ xed period models are meaningful models of cyclic phenomena".We argue that wavelet analysis|a mathematical framework developed in the mid-1980s (Grossman and Morlet 1984; Goupillaud et al. 1984) | is a very viable alternative to study cycles in political time-series. It has the advantage of staying close to the frequency domain approach of spectral analysis while addressing its main limitations. Its principal contribution comes from estimating the spectral characteristics of a time-series as a function of time, thus revealing how its di erent periodic components may change over time. The rest of article proceeds as follows. In the section \Time-frequency Analysis", we study in some detail the continuous wavelet transform and compare its time-frequency properties with the more standard tool for that purpose, the windowed Fourier transform. In the section \The British Political Pendulum", we apply wavelet analysis to essentially the same data analyzed by Lebo and Norpoth (2007) and Merrill, Grofman and Brunell (2011) and try to provide a more nuanced answer to the same question discussed by these authors: do British electoral politics exhibit cycles? Finally, in the last section, we present a concise list of future directions.

La dimensione di diritto fondamentale della maternità nel Diritto dell’Unione: politiche europee di conciliazione della vita famigliare e della vita professionale in tempo di crisi

Dissertação de mestrado em Direito da União Europeia

Mechanical fatigue performance of PCL-chondroprogenitor constructs after cell culture under bioreactor mechanical stimulus

In tissue engineering of cartilage, polymeric scaffolds are implanted in the damaged tissue and subjected to repeated compression loading cycles. The possibility of failure due to mechanical fatigue has not been properly addressed in these scaffolds. Nevertheless, the macroporous scaffold is susceptible to failure after repeated loading-unloading cycles. This is related to inherent discontinuities in the material due to the micropore structure of the macro-pore walls that act as stress concentration points. In this work, chondrogenic precursor cells have been seeded in Poly-ε-caprolactone (PCL) scaffolds with fibrin and some were submitted to free swelling culture and others to cyclic loading in a bioreactor. After cell culture, all the samples were analyzed for fatigue behavior under repeated loading-unloading cycles. Moreover, some components of the extracellular matrix (ECM) were identified. No differences were observed between samples undergoing free swelling or bioreactor loading conditions, neither respect to matrix components nor to mechanical performance to fatigue. The ECM did not achieve the desired preponderance of collagen type II over collagen type I which is considered the main characteristic of hyaline cartilage ECM. However, prediction in PCL with ECM constructs was possible up to 600 cycles, an enhanced performance when compared to previous works. PCL after cell culture presents an improved fatigue resistance, despite the fact that the measured elastic modulus at the first cycle was similar to PCL with poly(vinyl alcohol) samples. This finding suggests that fatigue analysis in tissue engineering constructs can provide additional information missed with traditional mechanical measurements.

Mosaic maternal ancestry in the Great Lakes region of East Africa

The Great Lakes lie within a region of East Africa with very high human genetic diversity, home of many ethno-linguistic groups usually assumed to be the product of a small number of major dispersals. However, our knowledge of these dispersals relies primarily on the inferences of historical, linguistics and oral traditions, with attempts to match up the archaeological evidence where possible. This is an obvious area to which archaeogenetics can contribute, yet Uganda, at the heart of these developments, has not been studied for mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) variation. Here, we compare mtDNA lineages at this putative genetic crossroads across 409 representatives of the major language groups: Bantu speakers and Eastern and Western Nilotic speakers. We show that Uganda harbours one of the highest mtDNA diversities within and between linguistic groups, with the various groups significantly differentiated from each other. Despite an inferred linguistic origin in South Sudan, the data from the two Nilotic-speaking groups point to a much more complex history, involving not only possible dispersals from Sudan and the Horn but also large-scale assimilation of autochthonous lineages within East Africa and even Uganda itself. The Eastern Nilotic group also carries signals characteristic of West-Central Africa, primarily due to Bantu influence, whereas a much stronger signal in the Western Nilotic group suggests direct West-Central African ancestry. Bantu speakers share lineages with both Nilotic groups, and also harbour East African lineages not found in Western Nilotic speakers, likely due to assimilating indigenous populations since arriving in the region ~3000 years ago.

Da utilização e análise de dados de Geofísica em contextos arqueológicos: o Castro de Sapelos (Boticas) e o Seminário Conciliar de São Pedro e São Paulo (Braga)

Dissertação de mestrado em Arqueologia

Retratos de mulher: construções sociais e representações visuais do feminino

Dissertação de mestrado em Sociologia da Cultura e dos Estilos de Vida

“Safety and health” as a criterion in the choice of tunneling method

Risk management is of paramount importance in the success of tunnelling works and is linked to the tunnelling method and to the constraints of the works. Sequencial Excavation Method (SEM) and Tun-nel Boring Machine (TBM) method have been competing for years. This article, part of a wider study on the influence of the â Safety and Healthâ criterion in the choice of method, reviews the existing literature about the criteria usually employed to choose the tunnelling method and on the criterion â Safety and Healthâ . This crite-rion is particularly important, due to the financial impacts of work accidents and occupational diseases. This article is especially useful to the scientific and technical community, since it synthesizes the relevance of each one of the choice criteria used and it shows why â Safety and Healthâ must be a criterion in the decision mak-ing process to choose the tunnelling method.

Fragmento e ruína: retratos modernos

"Cadernos de literatura comparada, nº. 28 (2013) - Modernismos revisitados, 1912-2012"