Specification and testing of multiplicative time-varying GARCH models with applications

In this article, we develop a specification technique for building multiplicative time-varying GARCH models of Amado and Teräsvirta (2008, 2013). The variance is decomposed into an unconditional and a conditional component such that the unconditional variance component is allowed to evolve smoothly over time. This nonstationary component is defined as a linear combination of logistic transition functions with time as the transition variable. The appropriate number of transition functions is determined by a sequence of specification tests. For that purpose, a coherent modelling strategy based on statistical inference is presented. It is heavily dependent on Lagrange multiplier type misspecification tests. The tests are easily implemented as they are entirely based on auxiliary regressions. Finite-sample properties of the strategy and tests are examined by simulation. The modelling strategy is illustrated in practice with two real examples: an empirical application to daily exchange rate returns and another one to daily coffee futures returns.

Titanium oxide adhesion layer for high temperature annealed Si/Si3N4/TiOx/Pt/LiCoO2 battery structures

This work describes the influence of a high annealing temperature of about 700C on the Si(substrate)/Si3N4/TiOx/Pt/LiCoO2 multilayer system for the fabrication of all-solid-state lithium ion thin film microbatteries. Such microbatteries typically utilize lithium cobalt oxide (LiCoO2) as cathode material with a platinum (Pt) current collector. Silicon nitride (Si3N4) is used to act as a barrier against Li diffusion into the substrate. For a good adherence between Si3N4 and Pt, commonly titanium (Ti) is used as intermediate layer. However, to achieve crystalline LiCoO2 the multilayer system has to be annealed at high temperature. This post-treatment initiates Ti diffusion into the Pt-collector and an oxidation to TiOx, leading to volume expansion and adhesion failures. To solve this adhesion problem, we introduce titanium oxide (TiOx) as an adhesion layer, avoiding the diffusion during the annealing process. LiCoO2, Pt and Si3N4 layers were deposited by magnetron sputtering and the TiOx layer by thermal oxidation of Ti layers deposited by e-beam technique. Asdeposited and annealed multilayer systems using various TiOx layer thicknesses were studied by scanning electron microscopy (SEM) and time-of-flight secondary ion mass spectrometry (ToF-SIMS) and x-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS). The results revealed that an annealing process at temperature of 700C leads to different interactions of Ti atoms between the layers, for various TiOx layer thicknesses (25–45 nm).

Fine time scaling of purifying selection on human nonsynonymous mtDNA mutations based on the worldwide population tree and mother-child pairs

A high-resolution mtDNA phylogenetic tree allowed us to look backward in time to investigate purifying selection. Purifying selection was very strong in the last 2,500 years, continuously eliminating pathogenic mutations back until the end of the Younger Dryas (∼11,000 years ago), when a large population expansion likely relaxed selection pressure. This was preceded by a phase of stable selection until another relaxation occurred in the out-of-Africa migration. Demography and selection are closely related: expansions led to relaxation of selection and higher pathogenicity mutations significantly decreased the growth of descendants. The only detectible positive selection was the recurrence of highly pathogenic nonsynonymous mutations (m.3394T>C-m.3397A>G-m.3398T>C) at interior branches of the tree, preventing the formation of a dinucleotide STR (TATATA) in the MT-ND1 gene. At the most recent time scale in 124 mother-children transmissions, purifying selection was detectable through the loss of mtDNA variants with high predicted pathogenicity. A few haplogroup-defining sites were also heteroplasmic, agreeing with a significant propensity in 349 positions in the phylogenetic tree to revert back to the ancestral variant. This nonrandom mutation property explains the observation of heteroplasmic mutations at some haplogroup-defining sites in sequencing datasets, which may not indicate poor quality as has been claimed.

Thin films composed of Ag nanoclusters dispersed in TiO2: Influence of composition and thermal annealing on the microstructure and physical responses

Noble metal powders containing gold and silver have been used for many centuries, providing different colours in the windows of the medieval cathedrals and in ancient Roman glasses. Nowadays, the interest in nanocomposite materials containing noble nanoparticles embedded in dielectric matrices is related with their potential use for a wide range of advanced technological applications. They have been proposed for environmental and biological sensing, tailoring colour of functional coatings, or for surface enhanced Raman spectroscopy. Most of these applications rely on the so-called localised surface plasmon resonance absorption, which is governed by the type of the noble metal nanoparticles, their distribution, size and shape and as well as of the dielectric characteristics of the host matrix. The aim of this work is to study the influence of the composition and thermal annealing on the morphological and structural changes of thin films composed of Ag metal clusters embedded in a dielectric TiO2 matrix. Since changes in size, shape and distribution of the clusters are fundamental parameters for tailoring the properties of plasmonic materials, a set of films with different Ag concentrations was prepared. The optical properties and the thermal behaviour of the films were correlated with the structural and morphological changes promoted by annealing. The films were deposited by DC magnetron sputtering and in order to promote the clustering of the Ag nanoparticles the as-deposited samples were subjected to an in-air annealing protocol. It was demonstrated that the clustering of metallic Ag affects the optical response spectrum and the thermal behaviour of the films.

Microstructural evolution of Au/TiO2 nanocomposite films: The influence of Au concentration and thermal annealing

Nanocomposite thin films consisting of a dielectric matrix, such as titanium oxide (TiO2), with embedded gold (Au) nanoparticles were prepared and will be analysed and discussed in detail in the present work. The evolution of morphological and structural features was studied for a wide range of Au concentrations and for annealing treatments in air, for temperatures ranging from 200 to 800 °C. Major findings revealed that for low Au atomic concentrations (at.%), there are only traces of clustering, and just for relatively high annealing temperatures, T ≥ 500 °C. Furthermore, the number of Au nanoparticles is extremely low, even for the highest annealing temperature, T = 800 °C. It is noteworthy that the TiO2 matrix also crystallizes in the anatase phase for annealing temperatures above 300 °C. For intermediate Au contents (5 at.% ≤ CAu ≤ 15 at.%), the formation of gold nanoclusters was much more evident, beginning at lower annealing temperatures (T ≥ 200 °C) with sizes ranging from 2 to 25 nm as the temperature increased. A change in the matrix crystallization from anatase to rutile was also observed in this intermediate range of compositions. For the highest Au concentrations (> 20 at.%), the films tended to form relatively larger clusters, with sizes above 20 nm (for T ≥ 400 °C). It is demonstrated that the structural and morphological characteristics of the films are strongly affected by the annealing temperature, as well as by the particular amounts, size and distribution of the Au nanoparticles dispersed in the TiO2 matrix.

Evolution of the functional properties of titanium–silver thin films for biomedical applications: Influence of in-vacuum annealing

In this work, the thermal stability of TiAgx thin films, deposited by magnetron sputtering, was evaluated, envisaging their application in biomedical devices, namely as electrodes for biosignal acquisition. Based on the composition and microstructural characterization, a set of four representative TiAgx thin films was selected in order to infer whether they are thermally stable in terms of functional properties. In order to achieve this purpose, the structural and morphological evolution of the films with annealing temperature was correlated with their electrical, mechanical and thermal properties. Two distinct zones were identified and two samples from each zone were extensively analysed. In the first zone (zone I), Ti was the main component (Ti-rich zone) while in the second, zone II, the Ag content was more significant. The selected samples were annealed in vacuum at four different temperatures up to 500 oC. For the samples produced within zone I, small microstructural changes were observed due to the recrystallization of the Ti structure and grain size increment. Also, no significant changes were observed with annealing temperature regarding the f l ’ functional properties, being thermally stable up to 500 oC. For higher Ag contents (zone II) the energy supplied by thermal treatments was sufficient to activate the crystallization of Ti-Ag intermetallic phases. A strong increase of the grain size of these phases was also reported. The structural and morphological organization proved to be determinant for the physical responses of the TiAgx system. The hardness and Y g’s modulus were significantly improved with the formation of the intermetallic phases. The silver addition and annealing treatments also played an important role in the electrical conductivity of the films, which was once again improved by the formation of Ti-Ag phases. The thermal diffusivity of the films was practically unchanged with the heat-treatment. This set of results shows that this intermetallic-like thin film system has good thermal stability up to high temperatures (as high as 500 oC), which in case of the highest Ag content zone is particularly evident for electrical and mechanical properties, showing an important improvement. Hardness increases about three times, while resistivity values become half of those from the lowest Ag contents zone. These set of characteristics are consistent with the targeted applications, namely in terms of biomedical sensing devices.

Multifunctional Ti–Me (Me=Al, Cu) thin film systems for biomedical sensing devices

Ti-Me binary intermetallic thin films based on a titanium matrix doped with increasing amounts of Me (Me = Al, Cu) were prepared by magnetron sputtering (under similar conditions), aiming their application in biomedical sensing devices. The differences observed on the composition and on the micro(structural) features of the films, attributed to changes in the discharge characteristics, were correlated with the electrical properties of the intermetallic systems (Ti-Al and Ti-Cu). For the same Me exposed areas placed on the Ti target (ranging from 0.25 cm2 to 20 cm2) the Cu content increased from 3.5 at.% to 71.7 at.% in the Ti-Cu system and the Al content, in Ti-Al films, ranged from 11 to 45 at.%. The structural characterization evidenced the formation of metastable Ti-Me intermetallic phases for Al/Ti atomic ratios above 0.20 and for Cu/Ti ratios above 0.25. For lower Me concentrations, the effect of the α-Ti(Me) structure domains the overall structure. With the increase amount of the Me into Ti structure a clear trend for amorphization was observed. For both systems it was observed a significant decrease of the electrical resistivity with increasing Me/Ti atomic ratios (higher than 0.5 for Al/Ti atomic ratio and higher than 1.3 for Cu/Ti atomic ratio). Although similar trends were observed in the resistivity evolution for both systems, the Ti-Cu films presented lower resistivity values in comparison to Ti-Al system.

Historical analysis of the Brazilian cervical cancer screening program from 2006 to 2013: a time for reflection

BACKGROUND: The Cervical Cancer Database of the Brazilian National Health Service (SISCOLO) contains information regarding all cervical cytological tests and, if properly explored, can be used as a tool for monitoring and managing the cervical cancer screening program. The aim of this study was to perform a historical analysis of the cervical cancer screening program in Brazil from 2006 to 2013. MATERIAL AND METHODS: The data necessary to calculate quality indicators were obtained from the SISCOLO, a Brazilian health system tool. Joinpoint analysis was used to calculate the annual percentage change. RESULTS: We observed important trends showing decreased rates of low-grade squamous intraepithelial lesions (LSIL) and high-grade squamous intraepithelial lesions (HSIL) and an increased rate of rejected exams from 2009 to 2013. The index of positivity was maintained at levels below those indicated by international standards; very low frequencies of unsatisfactory cases were observed over the study period, which partially contradicts the low rate of positive cases. The number of positive cytological diagnoses was below that expected, considering that developed countries with low frequencies of cervical cancer detect more lesions annually. CONCLUSIONS: The evolution of indicators from 2006 to 2013 suggests that actions must be taken to improve the effectiveness of cervical cancer control in Brazil.

Real-time monitoring of progression towards renal failure in primary care patients

First published online: December 16, 2014.

Investigations on relational control of time perception

Tese de Doutoramento em Psicologia Básica

Da pós-neotelevisão: a reconfiguração do prime-time nos canais generalistas portugueses

"Colecção: Comunicação e sociedade - 12"

Blow-up and finite time extinction for p(x, t)-curl systems arising in electromagnetism

"Available online 22 March 2016"

First- and second-time parents’ couple relationship: from pregnancy to second year postpartum

First- and second-time parents’ couple relationships were studied from early pregnancy to the second year postpartum. The Relationship Questionnaire (RQ) was administered to Portuguese couples (N = 82), first- or second-time parents, at the first, second and third pregnancy trimester, childbirth, 3 and 18 months postpartum. Adverse changes in positive and negative partner relationship dimensions were reported from early pregnancy to the second year postpartum by all participants; in the same way by mothers and fathers and by first- and second-time parents. Second-time parents reported a worse couple relationship (lower RQ-positive scores) than first-time parents, but only during pregnancy. Results from the present study suggest a decline in partner relationship quality during the transition to parenthood both in mothers and fathers, as well as in first- and second-time parents.

Predicting triage waiting time in maternity emergency care by means of data mining

Healthcare organizations often benefit from information technologies as well as embedded decision support systems, which improve the quality of services and help preventing complications and adverse events. In Centro Materno Infantil do Norte (CMIN), the maternal and perinatal care unit of Centro Hospitalar of Oporto (CHP), an intelligent pre-triage system is implemented, aiming to prioritize patients in need of gynaecology and obstetrics care in two classes: urgent and consultation. The system is designed to evade emergency problems such as incorrect triage outcomes and extensive triage waiting times. The current study intends to improve the triage system, and therefore, optimize the patient workflow through the emergency room, by predicting the triage waiting time comprised between the patient triage and their medical admission. For this purpose, data mining (DM) techniques are induced in selected information provided by the information technologies implemented in CMIN. The DM models achieved accuracy values of approximately 94% with a five range target distribution, which not only allow obtaining confident prediction models, but also identify the variables that stand as direct inducers to the triage waiting times.

Real-Time models to predict the use of vasopressors in monitored patients

The needs of reducing human error has been growing in every field of study, and medicine is one of those. Through the implementation of technologies is possible to help in the decision making process of clinics, therefore to reduce the difficulties that are typically faced. This study focuses on easing some of those difficulties by presenting real-time data mining models capable of predicting if a monitored patient, typically admitted in intensive care, will need to take vasopressors. Data Mining models were induced using clinical variables such as vital signs, laboratory analysis, among others. The best model presented a sensitivity of 94.94%. With this model it is possible reducing the misuse of vasopressors acting as prevention. At same time it is offered a better care to patients by anticipating their treatment with vasopressors.