Nonlinear ensemble prediction of chaotic daily rainfall

The significance of treating rainfall as a chaotic system instead of a stochastic system for a better understanding of the underlying dynamics has been taken up by various studies recently. However, an important limitation of all these approaches is the dependence on a single method for identifying the chaotic nature and the parameters involved. Many of these approaches aim at only analyzing the chaotic nature and not its prediction. In the present study, an attempt is made to identify chaos using various techniques and prediction is also done by generating ensembles in order to quantify the uncertainty involved. Daily rainfall data of three regions with contrasting characteristics (mainly in the spatial area covered), Malaprabha, Mahanadi and All-India for the period 1955-2000 are used for the study. Auto-correlation and mutual information methods are used to determine the delay time for the phase space reconstruction. Optimum embedding dimension is determined using correlation dimension, false nearest neighbour algorithm and also nonlinear prediction methods. The low embedding dimensions obtained from these methods indicate the existence of low dimensional chaos in the three rainfall series. Correlation dimension method is done on th phase randomized and first derivative of the data series to check whether the saturation of the dimension is due to the inherent linear correlation structure or due to low dimensional dynamics. Positive Lyapunov exponents obtained prove the exponential divergence of the trajectories and hence the unpredictability. Surrogate data test is also done to further confirm the nonlinear structure of the rainfall series. A range of plausible parameters is used for generating an ensemble of predictions of rainfall for each year separately for the period 1996-2000 using the data till the preceding year. For analyzing the sensitiveness to initial conditions, predictions are done from two different months in a year viz., from the beginning of January and June. The reasonably good predictions obtained indicate the efficiency of the nonlinear prediction method for predicting the rainfall series. Also, the rank probability skill score and the rank histograms show that the ensembles generated are reliable with a good spread and skill. A comparison of results of the three regions indicates that although they are chaotic in nature, the spatial averaging over a large area can increase the dimension and improve the predictability, thus destroying the chaotic nature. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Boundary value problems for third-order nonlinear ordinary differential equations

In this paper, we describe how to analyze boundary value problems for third-order nonlinear ordinary differential equations over an infinite interval. Several physical problems of interest are governed by such systems. The seminumerical schemes described here offer some advantages over solutions obtained by using traditional methods such as finite differences, shooting method, etc. These techniques also reveal the analytic structure of the solution function. For illustrative purposes, several physical problems, mainly drawn from fluid mechanics, are considered; they clearly demonstrate the efficiency of the techniques presented here.

Existence and approximations of solutions to some fractional order functional integral equations

In this paper we shall study a fractional order functional integral equation. In the first part of the paper, we proved the existence and uniqueness of mile and global solutions in a Banach space. In the second part of the paper, we used the analytic semigroups theory oflinear operators and the fixed point method to establish the existence, uniqueness and convergence of approximate solutions of the given problem in a separable Hilbert space. We also proved the existence and convergence of Faedo-Galerkin approximate solution to the given problem. Finally, we give an example.

Semigroups on Frechet spaces and equations with infinite delays

In this paper, we show existence and uniqueness of a solution to a functional differential equation with infinite delay. We choose an appropriate Frechet space so as to cover a large class of functions to be used as initial functions to obtain existence and uniqueness of solutions.

Prediction of estrus cyclicity in Asian elephants (Elephas maximus) through estimation of fecal progesterone metabolite: development of an enzyme-linked immuno-sorbent assay

Asian elephants (Dephas maximus), prominent ``flagship species'', arelisted under the category of endangered species (EN - A2c, ver. 3.1, IUCN Red List 2009) and there is a need for their conservation This requires understanding demographic and reproductive dynamics of the species. Monitoring reproductive status of any species is traditionally being carried out through invasive blood sampling and this is restrictive for large animals such as wild or semi-captive elephants due to legal. ethical, and practical reasons Hence. there is a need for a non-invasive technique to assess reproductive cyclicity profiles of elephants. which will help in the species' conservation strategies In this study. we developed an indirect competitive enzyme linked immuno-sorbent assay (ELISA) to estimate the concentration of one of the progesterone-metabolites i.e, allopregnanolone (5 alpha-P-3OH) in fecal samples of As elephants We validated the assay which had a sensitivity of 0.25 mu M at 90% binding with an EC50 value of 1 37 mu M Using female elephants. kept under semi-captive conditions in the forest camps of Mudumalar Wildlife Sanctuary, Tamil Nadu and Bandipur National Park, Karnataka, India. we measured fecal progesterone-metabolite (5 alpha-P-3OH) concentrations in six an and showed their clear correlation with those of scrum progesterone measured by a standard radio-immuno assay. Statistical analyses using a Linear Mixed Effect model showed a positive correlation (P < 0 1) between the profiles of fecal 5 alpha-P-3OH (range 0 5-10 mu g/g) and serum progesterone (range: 0 1-1 8 ng/mL) Therefore, our studies show, for the first time, that the fecal progesterone-metabolite assay could be exploited to predict estrus cyclicity and to potentially assess the reproductive status of captive and free-ranging female Asian elephants, thereby helping to plan their breeding strategy (C) 2010 Elsevier Inc.All rights reserved.

Boundary value problems for third-order nonlinear ordinary differential equations

In this paper, we describe how to analyze boundary value problems for third-order nonlinear ordinary differential equations over an infinite interval. Several physical problems of interest are governed by such systems. The seminumerical schemes described here offer some advantages over solutions obtained by using traditional methods such as finite differences, shooting method, etc. These techniques also reveal the analytic structure of the solution function. For illustrative purposes, several physical problems, mainly drawn from fluid mechanics, are considered; they clearly demonstrate the efficiency of the techniques presented here.

Comparative study of some constitutive equations characterising non-Newtonian fluids

This paper compares, in a general way, the predictions of the constitutive equations given by Rivlin and Ericksen, Oldroyd, and Walters. Whether we consider the rotational problems in cylindrical co-ordinates or in spherical polar co-ordinates, the effect of the non-Newtonicity on the secondary flows is collected in a single parameterα which can be explicitly expressed in terms of the non-Newtonian parameters that occur in each of the above-mentioned constitutive equations. Thus, for a given value ofα, all the three fluids will have identical secondary flows. It is only through the study of appropriate normal stresses that a Rivlin-Ericksen fluid can be distinguished from the other two fluids which are indistinguishable as long as this non-Newtonian parameter has the same value.

Numerical procedure for second order non-linear ordinary differential equations and application to heat transfer problem

In this paper, we have first given a numerical procedure for the solution of second order non-linear ordinary differential equations of the type y″ = f (x;y, y′) with given initial conditions. The method is based on geometrical interpretation of the equation, which suggests a simple geometrical construction of the integral curve. We then translate this geometrical method to the numerical procedure adaptable to desk calculators and digital computers. We have studied the efficacy of this method with the help of an illustrative example with known exact solution. We have also compared it with Runge-Kutta method. We have then applied this method to a physical problem, namely, the study of the temperature distribution in a semi-infinite solid homogeneous medium for temperature-dependent conductivity coefficient.

Use of Abel integral equations in water wave scattering by two surface-piercing barriers

In this paper the classical problem of water wave scattering by two partially immersed plane vertical barriers submerged in deep water up to the same depth is investigated. This problem has an exact but complicated solution and an approximate solution in the literature of linearised theory of water waves. Using the Havelock expansion for the water wave potential, the problem is reduced here to solving Abel integral equations having exact solutions. Utilising these solutions,two sets of expressions for the reflection and transmission coefficients are obtained in closed forms in terms of computable integrals in contrast to the results given in the literature which,involved six complicated integrals in terms of elliptic functions. The two different expressions for each coefficient produce almost the same numerical results although it has not been possible to prove their equivalence analytically. The reflection coefficient is depicted against the wave number in a number of figures which almost coincide with the figures available in the literature wherein the problem was solved approximately by employing complementary approximations. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Prediction of swelling pressure of soil using artificial intelligence techniques

The swelling pressure of soil depends upon various soil parameters such as mineralogy, clay content, Atterberg's limits, dry density, moisture content, initial degree of saturation, etc. along with structural and environmental factors. It is very difficult to model and analyze swelling pressure effectively taking all the above aspects into consideration. Various statistical/empirical methods have been attempted to predict the swelling pressure based on index properties of soil. In this paper, the computational intelligence techniques artificial neural network and support vector machine have been used to develop models based on the set of available experimental results to predict swelling pressure from the inputs; natural moisture content, dry density, liquid limit, plasticity index, and clay fraction. The generalization of the model to new set of data other than the training set of data is discussed which is required for successful application of a model. A detailed study of the relative performance of the computational intelligence techniques has been carried out based on different statistical performance criteria.

Prediction of swelling pressure of soil using artificial intelligence techniques

The swelling pressure of soil depends upon various soil parameters such as mineralogy, clay content, Atterberg's limits, dry density, moisture content, initial degree of saturation, etc. along with structural and environmental factors. It is very difficult to model and analyze swelling pressure effectively taking all the above aspects into consideration. Various statistical/empirical methods have been attempted to predict the swelling pressure based on index properties of soil. In this paper, the computational intelligence techniques artificial neural network and support vector machine have been used to develop models based on the set of available experimental results to predict swelling pressure from the inputs; natural moisture content, dry density, liquid limit, plasticity index, and clay fraction. The generalization of the model to new set of data other than the training set of data is discussed which is required for successful application of a model. A detailed study of the relative performance of the computational intelligence techniques has been carried out based on different statistical performance criteria.