Real-Time Bayesian Analysis of Ground Motion Envelopes for Earthquake Early Warning

Current earthquake early warning systems usually make magnitude and location predictions and send out a warning to the users based on those predictions. We describe an algorithm that assesses the validity of the predictions in real-time. Our algorithm monitors the envelopes of horizontal and vertical acceleration, velocity, and displacement. We compare the observed envelopes with the ones predicted by Cua & Heaton's envelope ground motion prediction equations (Cua 2005). We define a "test function" as the logarithm of the ratio between observed and predicted envelopes at every second in real-time. Once the envelopes deviate beyond an acceptable threshold, we declare a misfit. Kurtosis and skewness of a time evolving test function are used to rapidly identify a misfit. Real-time kurtosis and skewness calculations are also inputs to both probabilistic (Logistic Regression and Bayesian Logistic Regression) and nonprobabilistic (Least Squares and Linear Discriminant Analysis) models that ultimately decide if there is an unacceptable level of misfit. This algorithm is designed to work at a wide range of amplitude scales. When tested with synthetic and actual seismic signals from past events, it works for both small and large events.

Periodic solutions of integro-differential equations which arise in population dynamics

The problem of the existence and stability of periodic solutions of infinite-lag integra-differential equations is considered. Specifically, the integrals involved are of the convolution type with the dependent variable being integrated over the range (- ∞,t), as occur in models of population growth. It is shown that Hopf bifurcation of periodic solutions from a steady state can occur, when a pair of eigenvalues crosses the imaginary axis. Also considered is the existence of traveling wave solutions of a model population equation allowing spatial diffusion in addition to the usual temporal variation. Lastly, the stability of the periodic solutions resulting from Hopf bifurcation is determined with aid of a Floquet theory.

The first chapter is devoted to linear integro-differential equations with constant coefficients utilizing the method of semi-groups of operators. The second chapter analyzes the Hopf bifurcation providing an existence theorem. Also, the two-timing perturbation procedure is applied to construct the periodic solutions. The third chapter uses two-timing to obtain traveling wave solutions of the diffusive model, as well as providing an existence theorem. The fourth chapter develops a Floquet theory for linear integro-differential equations with periodic coefficients again using the semi-group approach. The fifth chapter gives sufficient conditions for the stability or instability of a periodic solution in terms of the linearization of the equations. These results are then applied to the Hopf bifurcation problem and to a certain population equation modeling periodically fluctuating environments to deduce the stability of the corresponding periodic solutions.

Exact solutions and transformation properties of nonlinear partial differential equations from general relativity

Various families of exact solutions to the Einstein and Einstein-Maxwell field equations of General Relativity are treated for situations of sufficient symmetry that only two independent variables arise. The mathematical problem then reduces to consideration of sets of two coupled nonlinear differential equations.

The physical situations in which such equations arise include: a) the external gravitational field of an axisymmetric, uncharged steadily rotating body, b) cylindrical gravitational waves with two degrees of freedom, c) colliding plane gravitational waves, d) the external gravitational and electromagnetic fields of a static, charged axisymmetric body, and e) colliding plane electromagnetic and gravitational waves. Through the introduction of suitable potentials and coordinate transformations, a formalism is presented which treats all these problems simultaneously. These transformations and potentials may be used to generate new solutions to the Einstein-Maxwell equations from solutions to the vacuum Einstein equations, and vice-versa.

The calculus of differential forms is used as a tool for generation of similarity solutions and generalized similarity solutions. It is further used to find the invariance group of the equations; this in turn leads to various finite transformations that give new, physically distinct solutions from old. Some of the above results are then generalized to the case of three independent variables.

The stability of traveling wave solutions of parabolic equations

A method for determining by inspection the stability or instability of any solution u(t,x) = ɸ(x-ct) of any smooth equation of the form u_t = f(u_(xx),u_x,u where ∂/∂a f(a,b,c) > 0 for all arguments a,b,c, is developed. The connection between the mean wavespeed of solutions u(t,x) and their initial conditions u(0,x) is also explored. The mean wavespeed results and some of the stability results are then extended to include equations which contain integrals and also to include some special systems of equations. The results are applied to several physical examples.

I. Exact solution of some nonlinear evolution equations. II. The similarity solution for the Korteweg-De Vries equation and the related Painleve Transcendent

In Part I, a method for finding solutions of certain diffusive dispersive nonlinear evolution equations is introduced. The method consists of a straightforward iteration procedure, applied to the equation as it stands (in most cases), which can be carried out to all terms, followed by a summation of the resulting infinite series, sometimes directly and other times in terms of traces of inverses of operators in an appropriate space.

We first illustrate our method with Burgers' and Thomas' equations, and show how it quickly leads to the Cole-Hopft transformation, which is known to linearize these equations.

We also apply this method to the Korteweg and de Vries, nonlinear (cubic) Schrödinger, Sine-Gordon, modified KdV and Boussinesq equations. In all these cases the multisoliton solutions are easily obtained and new expressions for some of them follow. More generally we show that the Marcenko integral equations, together with the inverse problem that originates them, follow naturally from our expressions.

Only solutions that are small in some sense (i.e., they tend to zero as the independent variable goes to ∞) are covered by our methods. However, by the study of the effect of writing the initial iterate u_1 = u_(1)(x,t) as a sum u_1 = ^∼/u_1 + ^≈/u_1 when we know the solution which results if u_1 = ^∼/u_1, we are led to expressions that describe the interaction of two arbitrary solutions, only one of which is small. This should not be confused with Backlund transformations and is more in the direction of performing the inverse scattering over an arbitrary “base” solution. Thus we are able to write expressions for the interaction of a cnoidal wave with a multisoliton in the case of the KdV equation; these expressions are somewhat different from the ones obtained by Wahlquist (1976). Similarly, we find multi-dark-pulse solutions and solutions describing the interaction of envelope-solitons with a uniform wave train in the case of the Schrodinger equation.

Other equations tractable by our method are presented. These include the following equations: Self-induced transparency, reduced Maxwell-Bloch, and a two-dimensional nonlinear Schrodinger. Higher order and matrix-valued equations with nonscalar dispersion functions are also presented.

In Part II, the second Painleve transcendent is treated in conjunction with the similarity solutions of the Korteweg-de Vries equat ion and the modified Korteweg-de Vries equation.

Existence, uniqueness, and stability of solutions of a class of nonlinear partial differential equations

In this study we investigate the existence, uniqueness and asymptotic stability of solutions of a class of nonlinear integral equations which are representations for some time dependent non- linear partial differential equations. Sufficient conditions are established which allow one to infer the stability of the nonlinear equations from the stability of the linearized equations. Improved estimates of the domain of stability are obtained using a Liapunov Functional approach. These results are applied to some nonlinear partial differential equations governing the behavior of nonlinear continuous dynamical systems.

New variational principles for systems of partial differential equations

The question of finding variational principles for coupled systems of first order partial differential equations is considered. Using a potential representation for solutions of the first order system a higher order system is obtained. Existence of a variational principle follows if the original system can be transformed to a self-adjoint higher order system. Existence of variational principles for all linear wave equations with constant coefficients having real dispersion relations is established. The method of adjoining some of the equations of the original system to a suitable Lagrangian function by the method of Lagrange multipliers is used to construct new variational principles for a class of linear systems. The equations used as side conditions must satisfy highly-restrictive integrability conditions. In the more difficult nonlinear case the system of two equations in two independent variables can be analyzed completely. For systems determined by two conservation laws the side condition must be a conservation law in addition to satisfying the integrability conditions.

Numerical solution of parabolic equations by the box scheme

The box scheme proposed by H. B. Keller is a numerical method for solving parabolic partial differential equations. We give a convergence proof of this scheme for the heat equation, for a linear parabolic system, and for a class of nonlinear parabolic equations. Von Neumann stability is shown to hold for the box scheme combined with the method of fractional steps to solve the two-dimensional heat equation. Computations were performed on Burgers' equation with three different initial conditions, and Richardson extrapolation is shown to be effective.

Boundary value problems for stochastic differential equations

A theory of two-point boundary value problems analogous to the theory of initial value problems for stochastic ordinary differential equations whose solutions form Markov processes is developed. The theory of initial value problems consists of three main parts: the proof that the solution process is markovian and diffusive; the construction of the Kolmogorov or Fokker-Planck equation of the process; and the proof that the transistion probability density of the process is a unique solution of the Fokker-Planck equation.

It is assumed here that the stochastic differential equation under consideration has, as an initial value problem, a diffusive markovian solution process. When a given boundary value problem for this stochastic equation almost surely has unique solutions, we show that the solution process of the boundary value problem is also a diffusive Markov process. Since a boundary value problem, unlike an initial value problem, has no preferred direction for the parameter set, we find that there are two Fokker-Planck equations, one for each direction. It is shown that the density of the solution process of the boundary value problem is the unique simultaneous solution of this pair of Fokker-Planck equations.

This theory is then applied to the problem of a vibrating string with stochastic density.

Arithmetic of cyclotomic fields and Fermat-type equations

Let l be any odd prime, and ζ a primitive l-th root of unity. Let C_l be the l-Sylow subgroup of the ideal class group of Q(ζ). The Teichmüller character w : Z_l → Z^*_l is given by w(x) = x (mod l), where w(x) is a p-1-st root of unity, and x ∈ Z_l. Under the action of this character, C_l decomposes as a direct sum of C^((i))_l, where C^((i))_l is the eigenspace corresponding to w^i. Let the order of C^((3))_l be l^h_3). The main result of this thesis is the following: For every n ≥ max( 1, h_3 ), the equation x^(ln) + y^(ln) + z^(ln) = 0 has no integral solutions (x,y,z) with l ≠ xyz. The same result is also proven with n ≥ max(1,h_5), under the assumption that C_l^((5)) is a cyclic group of order l^h_5. Applications of the methods used to prove the above results to the second case of Fermat's last theorem and to a Fermat-like equation in four variables are given.

The proof uses a series of ideas of H.S. Vandiver ([Vl],[V2]) along with a theorem of M. Kurihara [Ku] and some consequences of the proof of lwasawa's main conjecture for cyclotomic fields by B. Mazur and A. Wiles [MW]. In [V1] Vandiver claimed that the first case of Fermat's Last Theorem held for l if l did not divide the class number h^+ of the maximal real subfield of Q(e^(2πi/i)). The crucial gap in Vandiver's attempted proof that has been known to experts is explained, and complete proofs of all the results used from his papers are given.

Multiscale model reduction methods for deterministic and stochastic partial differential equations

Partial differential equations (PDEs) with multiscale coefficients are very difficult to solve due to the wide range of scales in the solutions. In the thesis, we propose some efficient numerical methods for both deterministic and stochastic PDEs based on the model reduction technique.

For the deterministic PDEs, the main purpose of our method is to derive an effective equation for the multiscale problem. An essential ingredient is to decompose the harmonic coordinate into a smooth part and a highly oscillatory part of which the magnitude is small. Such a decomposition plays a key role in our construction of the effective equation. We show that the solution to the effective equation is smooth, and could be resolved on a regular coarse mesh grid. Furthermore, we provide error analysis and show that the solution to the effective equation plus a correction term is close to the original multiscale solution.

For the stochastic PDEs, we propose the model reduction based data-driven stochastic method and multilevel Monte Carlo method. In the multiquery, setting and on the assumption that the ratio of the smallest scale and largest scale is not too small, we propose the multiscale data-driven stochastic method. We construct a data-driven stochastic basis and solve the coupled deterministic PDEs to obtain the solutions. For the tougher problems, we propose the multiscale multilevel Monte Carlo method. We apply the multilevel scheme to the effective equations and assemble the stiffness matrices efficiently on each coarse mesh grid. In both methods, the $\KL$ expansion plays an important role in extracting the main parts of some stochastic quantities.

For both the deterministic and stochastic PDEs, numerical results are presented to demonstrate the accuracy and robustness of the methods. We also show the computational time cost reduction in the numerical examples.

Progress in numerical modeling of non-premixed combustion

Progress is made on the numerical modeling of both laminar and turbulent non-premixed flames. Instead of solving the transport equations for the numerous species involved in the combustion process, the present study proposes reduced-order combustion models based on local flame structures.

For laminar non-premixed flames, curvature and multi-dimensional diffusion effects are found critical for the accurate prediction of sooting tendencies. A new numerical model based on modified flamelet equations is proposed. Sooting tendencies are calculated numerically using the proposed model for a wide range of species. These first numerically-computed sooting tendencies are in good agreement with experimental data. To further quantify curvature and multi-dimensional effects, a general flamelet formulation is derived mathematically. A budget analysis of the general flamelet equations is performed on an axisymmetric laminar diffusion flame. A new chemistry tabulation method based on the general flamelet formulation is proposed. This new tabulation method is applied to the same flame and demonstrates significant improvement compared to previous techniques.

For turbulent non-premixed flames, a new model to account for chemistry-turbulence interactions is proposed. %It is found that these interactions are not important for radicals and small species, but substantial for aromatic species. The validity of various existing flamelet-based chemistry tabulation methods is examined, and a new linear relaxation model is proposed for aromatic species. The proposed relaxation model is validated against full chemistry calculations. To further quantify the importance of aromatic chemistry-turbulence interactions, Large-Eddy Simulations (LES) have been performed on a turbulent sooting jet flame. %The aforementioned relaxation model is used to provide closure for the chemical source terms of transported aromatic species. The effects of turbulent unsteadiness on soot are highlighted by comparing the LES results with a separate LES using fully-tabulated chemistry. It is shown that turbulent unsteady effects are of critical importance for the accurate prediction of not only the inception locations, but also the magnitude and fluctuations of soot.

Structure Prediction of G-Protein Coupled Receptors

G-protein coupled receptors (GPCRs) form a large family of proteins and are very important drug targets. They are membrane proteins, which makes computational prediction of their structure challenging. Homology modeling is further complicated by low sequence similarly of the GPCR superfamily.

In this dissertation, we analyze the conserved inter-helical contacts of recently solved crystal structures, and we develop a unified sequence-structural alignment of the GPCR superfamily. We use this method to align 817 human GPCRs, 399 of which are nonolfactory. This alignment can be used to generate high quality homology models for the 817 GPCRs.

To refine the provided GPCR homology models we developed the Trihelix sampling method. We use a multi-scale approach to simplify the problem by treating the transmembrane helices as rigid bodies. In contrast to Monte Carlo structure prediction methods, the Trihelix method does a complete local sampling using discretized coordinates for the transmembrane helices. We validate the method on existing structures and apply it to predict the structure of the lactate receptor, HCAR1. For this receptor, we also build extracellular loops by taking into account constraints from three disulfide bonds. Docking of lactate and 3,5-dihydroxybenzoic acid shows likely involvement of three Arg residues on different transmembrane helices in binding a single ligand molecule.

Protein structure prediction relies on accurate force fields. We next present an effort to improve the quality of charge assignment for large atomic models. In particular, we introduce the formalism of the polarizable charge equilibration scheme (PQEQ) and we describe its implementation in the molecular simulation package Lammps. PQEQ allows fast on the fly charge assignment even for reactive force fields.

Generalizations and extensions of the Fokker-Planck-Kolmogorov equations

The problem of determining probability density functions of general transformations of random processes is considered in this thesis. A method of solution is developed in which partial differential equations satisfied by the unknown density function are derived. These partial differential equations are interpreted as generalized forms of the classical Fokker-Planck-Kolmogorov equations and are shown to imply the classical equations for certain classes of Markov processes. Extensions of the generalized equations which overcome degeneracy occurring in the steady-state case are also obtained.

The equations of Darling and Siegert are derived as special cases of the generalized equations thereby providing unity to two previously existing theories. A technique for treating non-Markov processes by studying closely related Markov processes is proposed and is seen to yield the Darling and Siegert equations directly from the classical Fokker-Planck-Kolmogorov equations.

As illustrations of their applicability, the generalized Fokker-Planck-Kolmogorov equations are presented for certain joint probability density functions associated with the linear filter. These equations are solved for the density of the output of an arbitrary linear filter excited by Markov Gaussian noise and for the density of the output of an RC filter excited by the Poisson square wave. This latter density is also found by using the extensions of the generalized equations mentioned above. Finally, some new approaches for finding the output probability density function of an RC filter-limiter-RC filter system driven by white Gaussian noise are included. The results in this case exhibit the data required for complete solution and clearly illustrate some of the mathematical difficulties inherent to the use of the generalized equations.

Equivalent differential equations for nonlinear dynamical systems

A technique for obtaining approximate periodic solutions to nonlinear ordinary differential equations is investigated. The approach is based on defining an equivalent differential equation whose exact periodic solution is known. Emphasis is placed on the mathematical justification of the approach. The relationship between the differential equation error and the solution error is investigated, and, under certain conditions, bounds are obtained on the latter. The technique employed is to consider the equation governing the exact solution error as a two point boundary value problem. Among other things, the analysis indicates that if an exact periodic solution to the original system exists, it is always possible to bound the error by selecting an appropriate equivalent system.

Three equivalence criteria for minimizing the differential equation error are compared, namely, minimum mean square error, minimum mean absolute value error, and minimum maximum absolute value error. The problem is analyzed by way of example, and it is concluded that, on the average, the minimum mean square error is the most appropriate criterion to use.

A comparison is made between the use of linear and cubic auxiliary systems for obtaining approximate solutions. In the examples considered, the cubic system provides noticeable improvement over the linear system in describing periodic response.

A comparison of the present approach to some of the more classical techniques is included. It is shown that certain of the standard approaches where a solution form is assumed can yield erroneous qualitative results.