9 resultados para worst-case analysis
em Helda - Digital Repository of University of Helsinki
Resumo:
Digital elevation models (DEMs) have been an important topic in geography and surveying sciences for decades due to their geomorphological importance as the reference surface for gravita-tion-driven material flow, as well as the wide range of uses and applications. When DEM is used in terrain analysis, for example in automatic drainage basin delineation, errors of the model collect in the analysis results. Investigation of this phenomenon is known as error propagation analysis, which has a direct influence on the decision-making process based on interpretations and applications of terrain analysis. Additionally, it may have an indirect influence on data acquisition and the DEM generation. The focus of the thesis was on the fine toposcale DEMs, which are typically represented in a 5-50m grid and used in the application scale 1:10 000-1:50 000. The thesis presents a three-step framework for investigating error propagation in DEM-based terrain analysis. The framework includes methods for visualising the morphological gross errors of DEMs, exploring the statistical and spatial characteristics of the DEM error, making analytical and simulation-based error propagation analysis and interpreting the error propagation analysis results. The DEM error model was built using geostatistical methods. The results show that appropriate and exhaustive reporting of various aspects of fine toposcale DEM error is a complex task. This is due to the high number of outliers in the error distribution and morphological gross errors, which are detectable with presented visualisation methods. In ad-dition, the use of global characterisation of DEM error is a gross generalisation of reality due to the small extent of the areas in which the decision of stationarity is not violated. This was shown using exhaustive high-quality reference DEM based on airborne laser scanning and local semivariogram analysis. The error propagation analysis revealed that, as expected, an increase in the DEM vertical error will increase the error in surface derivatives. However, contrary to expectations, the spatial au-tocorrelation of the model appears to have varying effects on the error propagation analysis depend-ing on the application. The use of a spatially uncorrelated DEM error model has been considered as a 'worst-case scenario', but this opinion is now challenged because none of the DEM derivatives investigated in the study had maximum variation with spatially uncorrelated random error. Sig-nificant performance improvement was achieved in simulation-based error propagation analysis by applying process convolution in generating realisations of the DEM error model. In addition, typology of uncertainty in drainage basin delineations is presented.
Resumo:
Biological invasions are considered as one of the greatest threats to biodiversity, as they may lead to disruption and homogenization of natural communities, and in the worst case, to native species extinctions. The introduction of gene modified organisms (GMOs) to agricultural, fisheries and forestry practices brings them into contact with natural populations. GMOs may appear as new invasive species if they are able to (1) invade into natural habitats or (2) hybridize with their wild relatives. The benefits of GMOs, such as increased yield or decreased use of insecticides or herbicides in cultivation, may thus be reduced due the potential risks they may cause. A careful ecological risk analysis therefore has to precede any responsible GMO introduction. In this thesis I study ecological invasion in relation to GMOs, and what kind of consequences invasion may have in natural populations. A set of theoretical models that combine life-history evolution, population dynamics, and population genetics were developed for the hazard identification part of ecological risks assessment of GMOs. In addition, the potential benefits of GMOs in management of an invasive pest were analyzed. In the first study I showed that a population that is fluctuating due to scramble-type density dependence (due to, e.g., nutrient competition in plants) may be invaded by a population that is relatively more limited by a resource (e.g., light in plants) that is a cause of contest-type density dependence. This result emphasises the higher risk of invasion in unstable environments. The next two studies focused on escape of a growth hormone (GH) transgenic fish into a natural population. The results showed that previous models may have given too pessimistic a view of the so called Trojan gene -effect, where the invading genotype is harmful for the population as a whole. The previously suggested population extinctions did not occur in my studies, since the changes in mating preferences caused by the GH-fish were be ameliorated by decreased level of competition. The GH-invaders may also have to exceed a threshold density before invasion can be successful. I also showed that the prevalence of mature parr (aka. sneaker) strategy among GH-fish may have clear effect on invasion outcome. The fourth study assessed the risks and developed methods against the invasion of the Colorado Potato Beetle (CPB, Leptinotarsa decemlineata). I showed that the eradication of CPB is most important for the prevention of their establishment, but the cultivation of transgenic Bt-potato could also be effective. In general, my results emphasise that invasion of transgenic species or genotypes to be possible under certain realistic conditions and resulting in competitive exclusion, population decline through outbreeding depression and genotypic displacement of native species. Ecological risk assessment should regard the decline and displacement of the wild genotype by an introduced one as a consequence that is as serious as the population extinction. It will also be crucial to take into account different kinds of behavioural differences among species when assessing the possible hazards that GMOs may cause if escaped. The benefits found of GMO crops effectiveness in pest management may also be too optimistic since CPB may evolve resistance to Bt-toxin. The models in this thesis could be further applied in case specific risk assessment of GMOs by supplementing them with detailed data of the species biology, the effect of the transgene introduced to the species, and also the characteristics of the populations or the environments in the risk of being invaded.
Resumo:
The aim of this research is to define what kind of characters and images of teachers appear in Finnish school novels describing social changes and educational political reform from the 1930s to the 1990s written by teachers, particularly grammar school teachers. As comparison material, I use school novels written by Swedish school teachers, in which the changes in Swedish society and educational system and their expressions in the characters of teachers of the school novels are studied. The main focus of my study is centred particularly on school novels in which the images of grammar school teachers are described during times of school reform. From these starting points, the main objectives of the study are novels written by Finnish school teachers Anneli Toijala and Sampo Haahtela and Swedish school teacher Hugo Swensson, who was inspired by Haahtela. The research is qualitative multidisciplinary case analysis. The research method is content analysis, and the approach is hermeneutic. The research is divided into eight main chapters. After the introduction I introduce the essential concepts of my research. In the third main chapter I define the research function. In that context, besides the research objectives, I introduce former research on character description in literature, I define the methodological solutions with grounds and present the research material. Both literary research methods and sociological terminology are applied in the research alongside with pedagogical research. The research results show that images of teachers are diverse. At one end of the spectrum these represent immature pictures of teachers withdrawn into the routines of everyday life; at the other, they advance and reflect the reformist teacher. This becomes clearly evident when comparing the teacher "monsters" of the classic authors to the educational optimists at the end of the 20th century. The results show that the images of teachers in school novels are almost without exception coherent, psychologically credible and consistent, and hardly any different from the images of teachers in the Swedish school novels used as comparison material. On the contrary, plenty of similarities are found. The comprehensive school reform, educational political discourse and teachers' feelings are realistically clarified in the school novels that describe the period. Keywords: literature image, school reform, school novel, teacher image, reflection, internal co-operation in school
Resumo:
Background. In Finland, the incidence of type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM) is the highest in the world, and it continues to increase steadily. No effective preventative interventions exist either for individuals at high risk or for the population as a whole. In addition to problems with daily lifelong insulin replacement therapy, T1DM patients with long-lasting disease suffer from various diabetes related complications. The complications can lead to severe impairments and reductions in functional capacity and quality of life and in the worst case they can be fatal. Longitudinal studies on the costs of T1DM are extremely rare, especially in Finland. Typically, in these studies, distinctions between the various types of diabetes have not been made, and costs have not been calculated separately for the sexes. Aims. The aim of this study was to describe inpatient hospital care and costs of inpatient care in a cohort of 5,166 T1DM patients by sex during 1973-1998 in Finland. Inpatient care and costs of care due to T1DM without complications, due to T1DM with complications and due to other causes were calculated separately. Material and Methods. The study population consisted of all Finnish T1DM patients diagnosed before the age of 18 years between January 1st in 1965 and December 31st in 1979 and derived from the Finnish population based T1DM register (N=5,120 in 1979 and N=4,701 in 1997). Data on hospitalisations were obtained from the Finnish Hospital Discharge Register. Results. In the early stages of T1DM, the majority of the use of inpatient care was due to the treatment of T1DM without complications. There were enormous increases in the use of inpatient care for certain complications when T1DM lasted longer (from 9.5 years to 16.5 years). For women, the yearly number of bed-days for renal complications increased 4.8-fold, for peripheral vascular disease 4.3-fold and for ophthalmic complications 2.5-fold. For men, the corresponding increases were as follows: 5-fold, 6.9-fold and 2.5-fold. The yearly bed-days for glaucoma increased 8-fold, nephropathy 7-fold and microangiopathy 6-fold in the total population. During these 7 years, the yearly numbers of bed-days for T1DM without complications dropped dramatically. The length of stay in inpatient care decreased notably, but hospital visits became more frequent when the length of duration of T1DM increased from 9.5 years to 16.5 years. The costs of treatments due to complications increased when T1DM lasted longer. Costs due to inpatient care of complications in the cohort 2.5-folded as duration of T1DM increased from 9.5 years to 16.5 years, while the total costs of inpatient care in the cohort dropped by 22% due to an 80% decrease in the costs of care of T1DM without complications. Treating complications of female patients was more expensive than treating complications of men when T1DM had lasted 9.5 years; the mean annual costs for inpatient care of a female diabetic (any cause) were 1,642 , and the yearly costs of care of complications were 237 . The corresponding yearly mean costs for a male patient were 1,198 and 167 . Treating complications of female patients was more expensive than that of male patients also when the duration of diabetes was 16.5 years, although the difference in average annual costs between sexes was somewhat smaller. Conclusions. In the early phases of T1DM, the treatment of T1DM without complications causes a considerable amount of hospital bed-days. The use of inpatient care due to complications of T1DM strongly increases with ageing of patients. The economic burden of inpatient care of T1DM is substantial.
Resumo:
This paper challenges the predominant view that legitimation is merely a specific phase in merger or acquisition processes. We argue that a better understanding of postmerger organizational dynamics calls for conceptualization of discursive legitimation as an inherent part of unfolding merger processes. In particular, we focus on the recursive relationship between legitimation and organizational action. We have two objectives: to outline a theoretical model that helps one to understand the dynamics of discursive legitimation and organizational action in postmerger organizations, and to examine a revealing case to distinguish the inherent risks and problems in discursive legitimation. Our case analysis focuses on the merger between the French pharmaceutical companies BioMérieux and Pierre Fabre. We adopt a critical multimethod approach and distinguish specific discursive dynamics and pathological tendencies in this case. The analysis highlights the unintended consequences of discursive legitimation, the central role of sensegiving and sensehiding in discursive legitimation, the inherently political nature of legitimation and the risks associated with politicization, the special problems associated with fashionable discourses and the role of the media, the use of specific discursive strategies for legitimation and delegitimation, and the crucial role of actual integration results. This analysis adds to the existing research on mergers and acquisitions by treating discursive legitimation as part of the merger dynamics. In particular, our case analysis provides a new explanation for merger failure. We also believe that the recursive model connecting discursive legitimation and delegitimation strategies to concrete organizational action makes a more general contribution to our understanding of organizational legitimation.
Resumo:
This paper challenges the predominant view that legitimation is merely a specific phase in merger or acquisition processes. We argue that a better understanding of postmerger organizational dynamics calls for conceptualization of discursive legitimation as an inherent part of unfolding merger processes. In particular, we focus on the recursive relationship between legitimation and organizational action. We have two objectives: to outline a theoretical model that helps one to understand the dynamics of discursive legitimation and organizational action in postmerger organizations, and to examine a revealing case to distinguish the inherent risks and problems in discursive legitimation. Our case analysis focuses on the merger between the French pharmaceutical companies BioMérieux and Pierre Fabre. We adopt a critical multimethod approach and distinguish specific discursive dynamics and pathological tendencies in this case. The analysis highlights the unintended consequences of discursive legitimation, the central role of sensegiving and sensehiding in discursive legitimation, the inherently political nature of legitimation and the risks associated with politicization, the special problems associated with fashionable discourses and the role of the media, the use of specific discursive strategies for legitimation and delegitimation, and the crucial role of actual integration results. This analysis adds to the existing research on mergers and acquisitions by treating discursive legitimation as part of the merger dynamics. In particular, our case analysis provides a new explanation for merger failure. We also believe that the recursive model connecting discursive legitimation and delegitimation strategies to concrete organizational action makes a more general contribution to our understanding of organizational legitimation.
Resumo:
Cosmopolitan ideals have been on the philosophical agenda for several millennia but the end of the Cold War started a new discussion on state sovereignty, global democracy, the role of international law and global institutions. The Westphalian state system in practice since the 17th century is transforming and the democracy deficit needs new solutions. An impetus has been the fact that in the present world, an international body representing global citizens does not exist. In this Master’s thesis, the possibility of establishing a world parliament is examined. In a case analysis, 17 models on world parliament from two journals, a volume of essays and two other publications are discussed. Based on general observations, the models are divided into four thematic groups. The models are analyzed with an emphasis on feasible and probable elements. Further, a new scenario with a time frame of thirty years is proposed based on the methodology of normative futures studies, taking special interest in causal relationships and actions leading to change. The scenario presents three gradual steps that each need to be realized before a sustainable world parliament is established. The theoretical framework is based on social constructivism, and changes in international and multi-level governance are examined with the concepts of globalization, democracy and sovereignty. A feasible, desirable and credible world parliament is constituted gradually by implying electoral, democratic and legal measures for members initially from exclusively democratic states, parliamentarians, non-governmental organizations and other groups. The parliament should be located outside the United Nations context, since a new body avoids the problem of inefficiency currently prevailing in the UN. The main objectives of the world parliament are to safeguard peace and international law and to offer legal advice in cases when international law has been violated. A feasible world parliament is advisory in the beginning but it is granted legislative powers in the future. The number of members in the world parliament could also be extended following the example of the EU enlargement process.
Resumo:
Aiempien tutkimusten mukaan keskustayrittäjien kielteinen asenne on olennaisesti vaikeuttanut kävelykatujen toteuttamista kaupunkikeskustoissa. Yrittäjät pelkäävät ostokykyisten asiakkaiden kaikkoavan ja liikevaihtonsa pienenevän kävelykeskustauudistusten myötä. Yrittäjien kielteiset asenteet ovat usein myös painottuneet suuriin kaupunkeihin. Etenkin ydinkeskustassa sijaitsevat kadunvarsiliikeyrittäjät ovat kokeneet kävelykadut ongelmiksi. Tämän tutkimuksen tavoitteena on selvittää, mikä on ydinkeskustan kadunvarsiliikeyrittäjien näkemys Helsingin kävelykeskustan suunnittelusta, millaisena ydinkeskustan kadunvarsiliikeyrittäjät näkevät sijaintikatunsa kävelykeskustan suunnittelupäämäärien kautta tarkasteltuna, ja onko kävelykatuyrittäjien ja kävelykatujen ulkopuolella sijaitsevien yrittäjien näkemysten välillä eroja. Taustana tälle tarkastellaan Helsingin kävelykeskustaa pohjoismaisessa kontekstissa, ja käydään läpi Helsingin kävelykeskustan suunnittelun ja rakentumisen historiaa ja päämääriä. Tutkimuksen aineisto koostuu Helsingin ydinkeskustan kadunvarsiliikeyrittäjille tehdystä kyselystä, kävelykeskustoihin liittyvistä tutkimuksista ja selvityksistä, kaupunkisuunnitteluun ja -tutkimukseen liittyvästä tutkimuskirjallisuudesta, sanomalehtiartikkeleista, ydinkeskustassa tehdystä empiirisestä havainnoinnista ja kahdesta asiantuntijahaastattelusta. Kyselyaineistoa analysoidaan tutkimuksessa tilastollisten menetelmien avulla. Helsingin kävelykeskustan suunnittelu ja rakentuminen on ollut pitkällinen prosessi. Vuoden 1 989 kävelykeskustan periaatesuunnitelmasta on konkretisoitunut Kluuvikatu ja Mikonkatu. Keskustatunnelihanke on vaakalaudalla, minkä vuoksi kävelykeskustan uuden periaatesuunnitelman toteutuminen on epävarmaa. Kävelykeskustan rakentuminen kuitenkin etenee. Keskuskatu ja Kalevankadun itäpää muutetaan kävelykaduiksi ja ydinkeskustan jalankulkuympäristöä parannetaan ja kehitetään jatkuvasti. Tällä hetkellä kävelykeskustan suunnittelun painopiste on Aleksanterinkadun kortteleiden ympäristössä, ja suunnittelun tärkeimpiä päämääriä ovat viihtyisyyden, turvallisuuden, kaupallisen vetovoimaisuuden ja saavutettavuuden parantaminen. Kyselyyn vastanneiden yrittäjien mielestä kävelykeskustaa tulisi laajentaa, sillä laajemman kävelykeskustan nähdään kasvattavan liikevaihtoa ja lisäävän yleisesti ydinkeskustan vetovoimaa. Kävelykatuyrittäjien näkemykset kävelykeskustan suunnittelusta ja kehittämisestä olivat kävelykatujen ulkopuolisia yrittäjiä kielteisempiä. Em. yrittäjien asenteisiin vaikuttavat oletettavasti tutkituilla kävelykaduilla ilmenneet ongelmat. Kyse voi myös olla siitä, että uusien kävelykatujen rakentaminen haittaa kävelykatujen saavutettavuutta. Kadunvarsiliikeyrittäjien yleinen suhtautuminen kävelykeskustan kehittämiseen ja suunnittelupäämääriin on kuitenkin pääosin positiivista. Jatkotutkimuksen kannalta olisi kiinnostavaa selvittää, onko muiden ydinkeskustassa toimivien yritysten, kuten esimerkiksi tavaratalojen ja kauppakeskusten johdon ja kiinteistösijoittajien ja -omistajien suhtautuminen kävelykeskustan kehittämiseen myös positiivista. Tämän lisäksi olisi mielenkiintoista selvittää keskustan käyttäjien ja keskustassa asuvien asenteita kävelykeskustan suunnitteluun, ja verrata tuloksia tässä tutkimuksessa selvitettyihin kadunvarsiliikeyrittäjien näkemyksiin.
Resumo:
Nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) are essential elements for all living organisms. However, in excess, they contribute to several environmental problems such as aquatic and terrestrial eutrophication. Globally, human action has multiplied the volume of N and P cycling since the onset of industrialization. The multiplication is a result of intensified agriculture, increased energy consumption and population growth. Industrial ecology (IE) is a discipline, in which human interaction with the ecosystems is investigated using a systems analytical approach. The main idea behind IE is that industrial systems resemble ecosystems, and, like them, industrial systems can then be described using material, energy and information flows and stocks. Industrial systems are dependent on the resources provided by the biosphere, and these two cannot be separated from each other. When studying substance flows, the aims of the research from the viewpoint of IE can be, for instance, to elucidate the ways how the cycles of a certain substance could be more closed and how the flows of a certain substance could be decreased per unit of production (= dematerialization). In Finland, N and P are studied widely in different ecosystems and environmental emissions. A holistic picture comparing different societal systems is, however, lacking. In this thesis, flows of N and P were examined in Finland using substance flow analysis (SFA) in the following four subsystems: I) forest industry and use of wood fuels, II) food production and consumption, III) energy, and IV) municipal waste. A detailed analysis at the end of the 1990s was performed. Furthermore, historical development of the N and P flows was investigated in the energy system (III) and the municipal waste system (IV). The main research sources were official statistics, literature, monitoring data, and expert knowledge. The aim was to identify and quantify the main flows of N and P in Finland in the four subsystems studied. Furthermore, the aim was to elucidate whether the nutrient systems are cyclic or linear, and to identify how these systems could be more efficient in the use and cycling of N and P. A final aim was to discuss how this type of an analysis can be used to support decision-making on environmental problems and solutions. Of the four subsystems, the food production and consumption system and the energy system created the largest N flows in Finland. For the creation of P flows, the food production and consumption system (Paper II) was clearly the largest, followed by the forest industry and use of wood fuels and the energy system. The contribution of Finland to N and P flows on a global scale is low, but when compared on a per capita basis, we are one of the largest producers of these flows, with relatively high energy and meat consumption being the main reasons. Analysis revealed the openness of all four systems. The openness is due to the high degree of internationality of the Finnish markets, the large-scale use of synthetic fertilizers and energy resources and the low recycling rate of many waste fractions. Reduction in the use of fuels and synthetic fertilizers, reorganization of the structure of energy production, reduced human intake of nutrients and technological development are crucial in diminishing the N and P flows. To enhance nutrient recycling and replace inorganic fertilizers, recycling of such wastes as wood ash and sludge could be promoted. SFA is not usually sufficiently detailed to allow specific recommendations for decision-making to be made, but it does yield useful information about the relative magnitude of the flows and may reveal unexpected losses. Sustainable development is a widely accepted target for all human action. SFA is one method that can help to analyse how effective different efforts are in leading to a more sustainable society. SFA's strength is that it allows a holistic picture of different natural and societal systems to be drawn. Furthermore, when the environmental impact of a certain flow is known, the method can be used to prioritize environmental policy efforts.