Design and testing of stand-specific bucking instructions for use on modern cut-to-length harvesters

This study addresses three important issues in tree bucking optimization in the context of cut-to-length harvesting. (1) Would the fit between the log demand and log output distributions be better if the price and/or demand matrices controlling the bucking decisions on modern cut-to-length harvesters were adjusted to the unique conditions of each individual stand? (2) In what ways can we generate stand and product specific price and demand matrices? (3) What alternatives do we have to measure the fit between the log demand and log output distributions, and what would be an ideal goodness-of-fit measure? Three iterative search systems were developed for seeking stand-specific price and demand matrix sets: (1) A fuzzy logic control system for calibrating the price matrix of one log product for one stand at a time (the stand-level one-product approach); (2) a genetic algorithm system for adjusting the price matrices of one log product in parallel for several stands (the forest-level one-product approach); and (3) a genetic algorithm system for dividing the overall demand matrix of each of the several log products into stand-specific sub-demands simultaneously for several stands and products (the forest-level multi-product approach). The stem material used for testing the performance of the stand-specific price and demand matrices against that of the reference matrices was comprised of 9 155 Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.) sawlog stems gathered by harvesters from 15 mature spruce-dominated stands in southern Finland. The reference price and demand matrices were either direct copies or slightly modified versions of those used by two Finnish sawmilling companies. Two types of stand-specific bucking matrices were compiled for each log product. One was from the harvester-collected stem profiles and the other was from the pre-harvest inventory data. Four goodness-of-fit measures were analyzed for their appropriateness in determining the similarity between the log demand and log output distributions: (1) the apportionment degree (index), (2) the chi-square statistic, (3) Laspeyres quantity index, and (4) the price-weighted apportionment degree. The study confirmed that any improvement in the fit between the log demand and log output distributions can only be realized at the expense of log volumes produced. Stand-level pre-control of price matrices was found to be advantageous, provided the control is done with perfect stem data. Forest-level pre-control of price matrices resulted in no improvement in the cumulative apportionment degree. Cutting stands under the control of stand-specific demand matrices yielded a better total fit between the demand and output matrices at the forest level than was obtained by cutting each stand with non-stand-specific reference matrices. The theoretical and experimental analyses suggest that none of the three alternative goodness-of-fit measures clearly outperforms the traditional apportionment degree measure. Keywords: harvesting, tree bucking optimization, simulation, fuzzy control, genetic algorithms, goodness-of-fit

Determinants of farmer retirement and farm succession in Finland

In the past decade, the Finnish agricultural sector has undergone rapid structural changes. The number of farms has decreased and the average farm size has increased when the number of farms transferred to new entrants has decreased. Part of the structural change in agriculture is manifested in early retirement programmes. In studying farmers exit behaviour in different countries, institutional differences, incentive programmes and constraints are found to matter. In Finland, farmers early retirement programmes were first introduced in 1974 and, during the last ten years, they have been carried out within the European Union framework for these programmes. The early retirement benefits are farmer specific and de-pend on the level of pension insurance the farmer has paid over his active farming years. In order to predict the future development of the agricultural sector, farmers have been frequently asked about their future plans and their plans for succession. However, the plans the farmers made for succession have been found to be time inconsistent. This study estimates the value of farmers stated succession plans in predicting revealed succession decisions. A stated succession plan exists when a farmer answers in a survey questionnaire that the farm is going to be transferred to a new entrant within a five-year period. The succession is revealed when the farm is transferred to a suc-cessor. Stated and revealed behaviour was estimated as a recursive Binomial Probit Model, which accounts for the censoring of the decision variables and controls for a potential correlation between the two equations. The results suggest that the succession plans, as stated by elderly farmers in the questionnaires, do not provide information that is significant and valuable in predicting true, com-pleted successions. Therefore, farmer exit should be analysed based on observed behaviour rather than on stated plans and intentions. As farm retirement plays a crucial role in determining the characteristics of structural change in agriculture, it is important to establish the factors which determine an exit from farming among eld-erly farmers and how off-farm income and income losses affect their exit choices. In this study, the observed choice of pension scheme by elderly farmers was analysed by a bivariate probit model. Despite some variations in significance and the effects of each factor, the ages of the farmer and spouse, the age and number of potential successors, farm size, income loss when retiring and the location of the farm together with the production line were found to be the most important determi-nants of early retirement and the transfer or closure of farms. Recently, the labour status of the spouse has been found to contribute significantly to individual retirement decisions. In this study, the effect of spousal retirement and economic incentives related to the timing of a farming couple s early retirement decision were analysed with a duration model. The results suggest that an expected pension in particular advances farm transfers. It was found that on farms operated by a couple, both early retirement and farm succession took place more often than on farms operated by a single person. However, the existence of a spouse delayed the timing of early retirement. Farming couples were found to co-ordinate their early retirement decisions when they both exit through agricultural retirement programmes, but such a co-ordination did not exist when one of the spouses retired under other pension schemes. Besides changes in the agricultural structure, the share and amount of off-farm income of a farm family s total income has also increased. In the study, the effect of off-farm income on farmers retirement decisions, in addition to other financial factors, was analysed. The unknown parameters were first estimated by a switching-type multivariate probit model and then by the simulated maxi-mum likelihood (SML) method, controlling for farmer specific fixed effects and serial correlation of the errors. The results suggest that elderly farmers off-farm income is a significant determinant in a farmer s choice to exit and close down the farm. However, off-farm income only has a short term effect on structural changes in agriculture since it does not significantly contribute to the timing of farm successions.

Factors controlling the surface energy budget over snow and ice

Polar Regions are an energy sink of the Earth system, as the Sun rays do not reach the Poles for half of the year, and hit them only at very low angles for the other half of the year. In summer, solar radiation is the dominant energy source for the Polar areas, therefore even small changes in the surface albedo strongly affect the surface energy balance and, thus, the speed and amount of snow and ice melting. In winter, the main heat sources for the atmosphere are the cyclones approaching from lower latitudes, and the atmosphere-surface heat transfer takes place through turbulent mixing and longwave radiation, the latter dominated by clouds. The aim of this thesis is to improve the knowledge about the surface and atmospheric processes that control the surface energy budget over snow and ice, with particular focus on albedo during the spring and summer seasons, on horizontal advection of heat, cloud longwave forcing, and turbulent mixing during the winter season. The critical importance of a correct albedo representation in models is illustrated through the analysis of the causes for the errors in the surface and near-surface air temperature produced in a short-range numerical weather forecast by the HIRLAM model. Then, the daily and seasonal variability of snow and ice albedo have been examined by analysing field measurements of albedo, carried out in different environments. On the basis of the data analysis, simple albedo parameterizations have been derived, which can be implemented into thermodynamic sea ice models, as well as numerical weather prediction and climate models. Field measurements of radiation and turbulent fluxes over the Bay of Bothnia (Baltic Sea) also allowed examining the impact of a large albedo change during the melting season on surface energy and ice mass budgets. When high contrasts in surface albedo are present, as in the case of snow covered areas next to open water, the effect of the surface albedo heterogeneity on the downwelling solar irradiance under overcast condition is very significant, although it is usually not accounted for in single column radiative transfer calculations. To account for this effect, an effective albedo parameterization based on three-dimensional Monte Carlo radiative transfer calculations has been developed. To test a potentially relevant application of the effective albedo parameterization, its performance in the ground-based retrieval of cloud optical depth was illustrated. Finally, the factors causing the large variations of the surface and near-surface temperatures over the Central Arctic during winter were examined. The relative importance of cloud radiative forcing, turbulent mixing, and lateral heat advection on the Arctic surface temperature were quantified through the analysis of direct observations from Russian drifting ice stations, with the lateral heat advection calculated from reanalysis products.

Modeling and Forecasting Implied Volatility: Implications for Trading, Pricing, and Risk Management

Modeling and forecasting of implied volatility (IV) is important to both practitioners and academics, especially in trading, pricing, hedging, and risk management activities, all of which require an accurate volatility. However, it has become challenging since the 1987 stock market crash, as implied volatilities (IVs) recovered from stock index options present two patterns: volatility smirk(skew) and volatility term-structure, if the two are examined at the same time, presents a rich implied volatility surface (IVS). This implies that the assumptions behind the Black-Scholes (1973) model do not hold empirically, as asset prices are mostly influenced by many underlying risk factors. This thesis, consists of four essays, is modeling and forecasting implied volatility in the presence of options markets’ empirical regularities. The first essay is modeling the dynamics IVS, it extends the Dumas, Fleming and Whaley (DFW) (1998) framework; for instance, using moneyness in the implied forward price and OTM put-call options on the FTSE100 index, a nonlinear optimization is used to estimate different models and thereby produce rich, smooth IVSs. Here, the constant-volatility model fails to explain the variations in the rich IVS. Next, it is found that three factors can explain about 69-88% of the variance in the IVS. Of this, on average, 56% is explained by the level factor, 15% by the term-structure factor, and the additional 7% by the jump-fear factor. The second essay proposes a quantile regression model for modeling contemporaneous asymmetric return-volatility relationship, which is the generalization of Hibbert et al. (2008) model. The results show strong negative asymmetric return-volatility relationship at various quantiles of IV distributions, it is monotonically increasing when moving from the median quantile to the uppermost quantile (i.e., 95%); therefore, OLS underestimates this relationship at upper quantiles. Additionally, the asymmetric relationship is more pronounced with the smirk (skew) adjusted volatility index measure in comparison to the old volatility index measure. Nonetheless, the volatility indices are ranked in terms of asymmetric volatility as follows: VIX, VSTOXX, VDAX, and VXN. The third essay examines the information content of the new-VDAX volatility index to forecast daily Value-at-Risk (VaR) estimates and compares its VaR forecasts with the forecasts of the Filtered Historical Simulation and RiskMetrics. All daily VaR models are then backtested from 1992-2009 using unconditional, independence, conditional coverage, and quadratic-score tests. It is found that the VDAX subsumes almost all information required for the volatility of daily VaR forecasts for a portfolio of the DAX30 index; implied-VaR models outperform all other VaR models. The fourth essay models the risk factors driving the swaption IVs. It is found that three factors can explain 94-97% of the variation in each of the EUR, USD, and GBP swaption IVs. There are significant linkages across factors, and bi-directional causality is at work between the factors implied by EUR and USD swaption IVs. Furthermore, the factors implied by EUR and USD IVs respond to each others’ shocks; however, surprisingly, GBP does not affect them. Second, the string market model calibration results show it can efficiently reproduce (or forecast) the volatility surface for each of the swaptions markets.

Essays on Stock Option Compensation and the Role of Incentives and Risk (summary section only)

Managerial pay-for-performance sensitivity has increased rapidly around the world. Early empirical research showed that pay-for-performance sensitivity resulting from stock ownership and stock options appeared to be quite low during the 1970s and early 1980s in the U.S. However, recent empirical research from the U.S. shows an enormous increase in pay-for-performance sensitivity. The global trend has also reached Finland, where stock options have become a major ingredient of executive compensation. The fact that stock options seem to be an appealing form of remuneration from a theoretical point of view combined with the observation that the use of this compensation form has increased significantly during the recent years, implies that research on the dynamics of stock option compensation is highly relevant for the academic community, as well as for practitioners and regulators. The research questions of the thesis are analyzed in four separate essays. The first essay examines whether stock option compensation practices of Finnish firms are consistent with predictions from principal-agent theory. The second essay explores one of the major puzzles in the compensation literature by studying determinants of stock option contract design. In theory, optimal contract design should vary according to firm characteristics. However, in the U.S., variation in contract design seems to be surprisingly low, a phenomenon generally attributed to tax and accounting considerations. In Finland, however, firms are not subject to stringent contracting restrictions, and the variation in contract design tends, in fact, to be quite substantial. The third essay studies the impact of price- and risk incentives arising from stock option compensation on firm investment. In addition, the essay explores one of the most debated questions in the literature, in particular, the relation between incentives and firm performance. Finally, several strands of literature in both economics and corporate finance hypothesize that economic uncertainty is related to corporate decision-making. Previous research has shown that risk tends to slow down firm investment. In the fourth essay, it is hypothesized that firm risk slows down growth from a more universal perspective. Consistent with this view, it is shown that risk not only tends to slow down firm investment, but also employment growth. Moreover, the essay explores whether the nature of firms’ compensation policies, in particular, whether firms make use of stock option compensation, affects the relation between risk and firm growth. In summary, the four essays contribute to the current understanding of stock options as a form of equity incentives, and how incentives and risk affect corporate decision-making. By this, the thesis promotes the knowledge related to the modern theory of the firm.

Harvesting undelimbed Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) from first thinnings for integrated production of kraft pulp and energy

The present study evaluates the feasibility of undelimbed Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) for integrated production of pulp and energy in a kraft pulp mill from the technical, economic and environmental points of view, focusing on the potential of bundle harvesting. The feasibility of tree sections for pulp production was tested by conducting an industrial wood-handling experiment, laboratory cooking and bleaching trials, using conventional small-diameter Scots pine pulpwood as a reference. These trials showed that undelimbed Scots pine sections can be processed in favourable conditions as a blend with conventional small-diameter pulpwood without reducing the pulp quality. However, fibre losses at various phases of the process may increase when using undelimbed material. In the economic evaluation, both pulp production and wood procurement costs were considered, using the relative wood paying capability of a kraft pulp mill as a determinant. The calculations were made for three Scots pine first-thinning stands with the breast-height diameter of the removal (6 12 cm) as the main distinctive factor. The supply chains included in the comparison were based on cut-to-length harvesting, whole-tree harvesting and bundle harvesting (whole-tree bundling). With the current ratio of pulp and energy prices, the wood paying capability declines with an increase in the proportion of the energy fraction of the raw material. The supply system based on the cut-to-length method was the most efficient option, resulting in the highest residual value at stump in most cases. A decline in the pulp price and an increase in the energy price improved the competitiveness of the whole-tree systems. With short truck transportation distances and low pulp prices, however, the harvesting of loose whole trees can result in higher residual value at stump in small-diameter stands. While savings in transportation costs did not compensate for the high cutting and compaction costs by the second prototype of the bundle harvester, an increase in transportation distances improved its competitiveness. Since harvesting undelimbed assortments increases nutrient export from the site, which can affect soil productivity, the whole-tree alternatives included in the present study cannot be recommended on infertile peatlands and mineral soils. The harvesting of loose whole trees or bundled whole trees implies a reduction in protective logging residues and an increase in site traffic or payloads. These factors increase the risk of soil damage, especially on peat soils with poor bearing capacity. Within the wood procurement parameters which were examined, the CO2 emissions of the supply systems varied from 13 27 kg m3. Compaction of whole trees into bundles reduced emissions from transportation by 30 39%, but these reductions were insufficient to compensate for the increased emissions from cutting and compaction.

Dietary habits and obesity: the role of emotional and cognitive factors

In post-industrialised societies, food is more plentiful, accessible and palatable than ever before and technological development has reduced the need for physical activity. Consequently, the prevalence of obesity is increasing, which is problematic as obesity is related to a number of diseases. Various psychological and social factors have an important influence on dietary habits and the development of obesity in the current food-rich and sedentary environments. The present study concentrates on the associations of emotional and cognitive factors with dietary intake and obesity as well as on the role these factors play in socioeconomic disparities in diet. Many people cognitively restrict their food intake to prevent weight gain or to lose weight, but research on whether restrained eating is a useful weight control strategy has produced conflicting findings. With respect to emotional factors, the evidence is accumulating that depressive symptoms are related to less healthy dietary intake and obesity, but the mechanisms explaining these associations remain unclear. Furthermore, it is not fully understood why socioeconomically disadvantaged individuals tend to have unhealthier dietary habits and the motives underlying food choices (e.g., price and health) could be relevant in this respect. The specific aims of the study were to examine 1) whether obesity status and dieting history moderate the associations of restrained eating with overeating tendencies, self-control and obesity indicators; 2) whether the associations of depressive symptoms with unhealthier dietary intake and obesity are attributable to a tendency for emotional eating and a low level of physical activity self-efficacy; and 3) whether the absolute or relative importance of food choice motives (health, pleasure, convenience, price, familiarity and ethicality) contribute to the socioeconomic disparities in dietary habits. The study was based on a large population-based sample of Finnish adults: the participants were men (N=2325) and women (N=2699) aged 25-74 who took part in the DILGOM (Dietary, Lifestyle and Genetic Determinants of Obesity and Metabolic Syndrome) sub-study of the National FINRISK Study 2007. The participants weight, height, waist circumference and body fat percentage were measured in a health examination. Psychological eating styles (the Three-Factor Eating Questionnaire-R18), food choice motives (a shortened version of the Food Choice Questionnaire), depressive symptoms (the Center for Epidemiological Studies Depression Scale) and self-control (the Brief Self-Control Scale) were measured with pre-existing questionnaires. A validated food frequency questionnaire was used to assess the average consumption of sweet and non-sweet energy-dense foods and vegetables/fruit. Self-reported total years of education and gross household income were used as indicators of socioeconomic position. The results indicated that 1) restrained eating was related to a lower body mass index, waist circumference, emotional eating and uncontrolled eating, and to a higher self-control in obese participants and current/past dieters. In contrast, the associations were the opposite in normal weight individuals and those who had never dieted. Thus, restrained eating may be related to better weight control among obese individuals and those with dieting experiences, while among others it may function as an indicator of problems with eating and an attempt to solve them. 2) Emotional eating and depressive symptoms were both related to less healthy dietary intake, and the greater consumption of energy-dense sweet foods among participants with elevated depressive symptoms was attributable to the susceptibility for emotional eating. In addition, emotional eating and physical activity self-efficacy were both important in explaining the positive association between depressive symptoms and obesity. 3) The lower vegetable/fruit intake and higher energy-dense food intake among individuals with a low socioeconomic position were partly explained by the higher priority they placed on price and familiarity and the lower priority they gave to health motives in their daily food choices. In conclusion, although policy interventions to change the obesogenic nature of the current environment are definitely needed, knowledge of the factors that hinder or facilitate people s ability to cope with the food-rich environment is also necessary. This study implies that more emphasis should be placed on various psychological and social factors in weight control programmes and interventions.

Ryhmäidentiteetin mittaaminen verkkoroolipelissä World of Warcraft

The objective of the study was to explore the dimensions of group identity in the guilds of World of Warcraft. Previous research shows that social interaction has an important role in playing games for many players. Social identities are an important aspect of self-concept and since group related cues are more salient than personal clues in computer-mediated communication, the social gaming experience was approached through group identity. In the study a new scale will be developed to measure the group identity in games. Secondary goal is to study how different guild attributes affect the group identity and third goal is to explore the connection between group identity and gaming experience and amount of play. Subjects were 1203 guild members and 106 players not in a guild. The data was gathered by an Internet survey which measured group identity with nine scales, gaming experience with three scales and guild attributes with four scales. Also various background data was gathered. The construct of group identity was analyzed with explorative factor analysis. The typical experiences of group identity was analyzed with cluster analysis and effects of guild attributes with multivariate analysis of covariance. As a result of the study a new scale was developed which measured group identity on six dimensions: self-stereotyping, public and private evaluation, importance, interconnection of self and others and awareness of content. Group identity was experienced strongest in elder middle-sized guilds that had formal rules and that emphasized social interaction. The players with strong group identity had more positive gaming experience and played World of Warcraft more per week than the players who were not in a guild or identified to guild weakly. This result encourages game developers to produce environments that enhance group identity as it seems to increase the enjoyment in games. As a whole this study proposes that group identity in guilds is constructed from the same elements as in traditional groups. If this is truly the case, guild membership may have similar positive effects on individual’s mental well-being as traditional positively evaluated group memberships have.

HPLC analysis of plant sterol oxidation products

Increased interest in the cholesterol-lowering effect of plant sterols has led to development of plant sterol-enriched foods. When products are enriched, the safety of the added components must be evaluated. In the case of plant sterols, oxidation is the reaction of main concern. In vitro studies have indicated that cholesterol oxides may have harmful effects. Due their structural similarity, plant sterol oxidation products may have similar health implications. This study concentrated on developing high-performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) methods that enable the investigation of formation of both primary and secondary oxidation products and thus can be used for oxidation mechanism studies of plant sterols. The applicability of the methods for following the oxidation reactions of plant sterols was evaluated by using oxidized stigmasterol and sterol mixture as model samples. An HPLC method with ultraviolet and fluorescence detection (HPLC-UV-FL) was developed. It allowed the specific detection of hydroperoxides with FL detection after post-column reagent addition. The formation of primary and secondary oxidation products and amount of unoxidized sterol could be followed by using UV detection. With the HPLC-UV-FL method, separation between oxides was essential and oxides of only one plant sterol could be quantified in one run. Quantification with UV can lead to inaccuracy of the results since the number of double bonds had effect on the UV absorbance. In the case of liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry (LC-MS), separation of oxides with different functionalities was important because some oxides of the same sterol have similar molecular weight and moreover epimers have similar fragmentation behaviour. On the other hand, coelution of different plant sterol oxides with the same functional group was acceptable since they differ in molecular weights. Results revealed that all studied plant sterols and cholesterol seem to have similar fragmentation behaviour, with only relative ion abundances being slightly different. The major advantage of MS detection coupled with LC separation is the capability to analyse totally or partly coeluting analytes if these have different molecular weights. The HPLC-UV-FL and LC-MS methods were demonstrated to be suitable for studying the photo-oxidation and thermo-oxidation reactions of plant sterols. The HPLC-UV-FL method was able to show different formation rates of hydroperoxides during photo-oxidation. The method also confirmed that plant sterols have similar photo-oxidation behaviour to cholesterol. When thermo-oxidation of plant sterols was investigated by HPLC-UV-FL and LC-MS, the results revealed that the formation and decomposition of individual hydroperoxides and secondary oxidation products could be studied. The methods used revealed that all of the plant sterols had similar thermo-oxidation behaviour when compared with each other, and the predominant reactions and oxidation rates were temperature dependent. Overall, these findings showed that with these LC methods the oxidation mechanisms of plant sterols can be examined in detail, including the formation and degradation of individual hydroperoxides and secondary oxidation products, with less sample pretreatment and without derivatization.

Nitrogen dynamics of organic farming in a crop rotation based on red clover (Trifolium pratense) leys

In agricultural systems which rely on organic sources of nitrogen (N), of which the primary source is biological N fixation (BNF), it is extremely important to use N as efficiently as possible with minimal losses to the environment. The amount of N through BNF should be maximised and the availability of the residual N after legumes should be synchronised to the subsequent plant needs in the crop rotation. Six field experiments in three locations in Finland were conducted in 1994-2006 to determine the productivity and amount of BNF in red clover-grass leys of different ages. The residual effects of the leys for subsequent cereals as well as the N leaching risk were studied by field measurements and by simulation using the CoupModel. N use efficiency (NUE) and N balances were also calculated. The yields of red clover-grass leys were highest in the two-year-old leys (6 700 kg ha-1) under study, but the differences between 2- and 3-year old leys were not high in most cases. BNF (90 kg ha-1 in harvested biomass) correlated strongly with red clover dry matter yield, as the proportion of red clover N derived from the atmosphere (> 85%) was high in our conditions of organically farmed field with low soil mineral N. A red clover content of over 40% in dry matter is targeted to avoid negative N-balances and to gain N for the subsequent crop. Surprisingly, the leys had no significant effect on the yields and N uptake of the two subsequent cereals (winter rye or spring wheat, followed by spring oats). On the other hand, yield and C:N of leys, as well as BNF-N and total-N incorporated into the soil influenced on subsequent cereal yields. NUE of cereals from incorporated ley crop residues was rather high, varying from 30% to 80% (mean 48%). The mineral N content of soil in the profile of 0-90 cm was low, mainly 15-30 kg ha-1. Simulation of N dynamics by CoupModel functioned satisfactorily and is considered a useful tool to estimate N flows in cropping systems relying on organic N sources. Understanding the long-term influence of cultivation history and soil properties on N dynamics remains to be a challenge to further research.

Properties of Ammonium Nitrate based fertilisers

The text is divided into three parts; Properties, Application and Safety of Ammonium Nitrate (AN) based fertilisers. In Properties, the structures and phase transitions of ammonium and potassium nitrate are reviewed. The consequences of phase transitions affect the proper use of fertilisers. Therefore the products must be stabilised against the volume changes and consequent loss of bulk density and hardness, formation of dust and finally caking of fertilisers. The effect of different stabilisers is discussed. Magnesium nitrate, ammonium sulphate and potassium nitrate are presented as a good compromise. In the Application part, the solid solutions in the systems (K+,NH4+)NO3- and (NH4+,K+)(Cl-,NO3-) are presented based on studies made with DSC and XRD. As there are clear limits for solute content in the solvent lattice, a number of disproportionation transitions exist in these process phases, e.g., N3 (solid solution isomorphous to NH4NO3-III) disproportionates to phases K3 (solid solution isomorphous to KNO3-III) and K2 (solid solution isomorphous to KNO3-II). In the crystallisation experiments, the formation of K3 depends upon temperature and the ratio K/(K+NH4). The formation of phases K3, N3, and K2 was modelled as a function of temperature and the mole ratios. In introducing chlorides, two distinct maxima for K3 were found. Confirmed with commercial potash samples, the variables affecting the reaction of potassium chloride with AN are the particle size, time, temperature, moisture content and amount of organic coating. The phase diagrams obtained by crystallisation studies were compared with a number of commercial fertilisers and, with regard to phase composition, the temperature and moisture content are critical when the formation and stability of solid solutions are considered. The temperature where the AN-based fertiliser is solidified affects the amount of compounds crystallised at that point. In addition, the temperature where the final moisture is evaporated affects the amount and type of solid solution formed at this temperature. The amount of remaining moisture affects the stability of the K3 phase. The K3 phase is dissolved by the moisture and recrystallised into the quantities of K3, which is stable at the temperature where the sample is kept. The remaining moisture should not be free; it should be bound as water in the final product. The temperatures during storage also affect the quantity of K3 phase. As presented in the figures, K3 phase is not stable at temperatu¬res below 30 °C. If the temperature is about 40 °C, the K3 phase can be formed due to the remaining moisture. In the Safety part, self-sustaining decomposition (SSD), oxidising and energetic properties of fertilisers are discussed. Based on the consequence analysis of SSD, early detection of decomposition in warehouses and proper temperature control in the manufacturing process is important. SSD and oxidising properties were found in compositions where K3 exists. It is assumed that potassium nitrate forms a solid matrix in which AN can decompose. The oxidising properties can be affected by the form of the product. Granular products are inherently less oxidising. Finally energetic properties are reviewed. The composition of the fertiliser has an importance based on theoretical calculations supported by experimental studies. Materials such as carbonates and sulphates act as diluents. An excess of ammonium ions acts as a fuel although this is debatable. Based on the experimental work, the physical properties have a major importance over the composition. A high bulk density is of key importance for detonation resistance.

A Cointegration Approach to Topics in Empirical Macroeconomics (summary section only)

Mikael Juselius’ doctoral dissertation covers a range of significant issues in modern macroeconomics by empirically testing a number of important theoretical hypotheses. The first essay presents indirect evidence within the framework of the cointegrated VAR model on the elasticity of substitution between capital and labor by using Finnish manufacturing data. Instead of estimating the elasticity of substitution by using the first order conditions, he develops a new approach that utilizes a CES production function in a model with a 3-stage decision process: investment in the long run, wage bargaining in the medium run and price and employment decisions in the short run. He estimates the elasticity of substitution to be below one. The second essay tests the restrictions implied by the core equations of the New Keynesian Model (NKM) in a vector autoregressive model (VAR) by using both Euro area and U.S. data. Both the new Keynesian Phillips curve and the aggregate demand curve are estimated and tested. The restrictions implied by the core equations of the NKM are rejected on both U.S. and Euro area data. These results are important for further research. The third essay is methodologically similar to essay 2, but it concentrates on Finnish macro data by adopting a theoretical framework of an open economy. Juselius’ results suggests that the open economy NKM framework is too stylized to provide an adequate explanation for Finnish inflation. The final essay provides a macroeconometric model of Finnish inflation and associated explanatory variables and it estimates the relative importance of different inflation theories. His main finding is that Finnish inflation is primarily determined by excess demand in the product market and by changes in the long-term interest rate. This study is part of the research agenda carried out by the Research Unit of Economic Structure and Growth (RUESG). The aim of RUESG it to conduct theoretical and empirical research with respect to important issues in industrial economics, real option theory, game theory, organization theory, theory of financial systems as well as to study problems in labor markets, macroeconomics, natural resources, taxation and time series econometrics. RUESG was established at the beginning of 1995 and is one of the National Centers of Excellence in research selected by the Academy of Finland. It is financed jointly by the Academy of Finland, the University of Helsinki, the Yrjö Jahnsson Foundation, Bank of Finland and the Nokia Group. This support is gratefully acknowledged.

A modell of socially optimal hydro reservoir usage - yelding socially optimal outcomes in nordic electricity markets

An extensive electricity transmission network facilitates electricity trading between Finland, Sweden, Norway and Denmark. Currently most of the area's power generation is traded at NordPool, where the trading volumes have steadily increased since the early 1990's, when the exchange was founded. The Nordic electricity is expected to follow the current trend and further integrate with the other European electricity markets. Hydro power is the source for roughly a half of the supply in the Nordic electricity market and most of the hydro is generated in Norway. The dominating role of hydro power distinguishes the Nordic electricity market from most of the other market places. Production of hydro power varies mainly due to hydro reservoirs and demand for electricity. Hydro reservoirs are affected by water inflows that differ each year. The hydro reservoirs explain remarkably the behaviour of the Nordic electricity markets. Therefore among others, Kauppi and Liski (2008) have developed a model that analyzes the behaviour of the markets using hydro reservoirs as explanatory factors. Their model includes, for example, welfare loss due to socially suboptimal hydro reservoir usage, socially optimal electricity price, hydro reservoir storage and thermal reservoir storage; that are referred as outcomes. However, the model does not explain the real market condition but rather an ideal situation. In the model the market is controlled by one agent, i.e. one agent controls all the power generation reserves; it is referred to as a socially optimal strategy. Article by Kauppi and Liski (2008) includes an assumption where an individual agent has a certain fraction of market power, e.g. 20 % or 30 %. In order to maintain the focus of this thesis, this part of their paper is omitted. The goal of this thesis is two-fold. Firstly we expand the results from the socially optimal strategy for years 2006-08, as the earlier study finishes in 2005. The second objective is to improve on the methods from the previous study. This thesis results several outcomes (SPOT-price and welfare loss, etc.) due to socially optimal actions. Welfare loss is interesting as it describes the inefficiency of the market. SPOT-price is an important output for the market participants as it often has an effect on end users' electricity bills. Another function is to modify and try to improve the model by means of using more accurate input data, e.g. by considering pollution trade rights effect on input data. After modifications to the model, new welfare losses are calculated and compared with the same results before the modifications. The hydro reservoir has the higher explanatory significance in the model followed by thermal power. In Nordic markets, thermal power reserves are mostly nuclear power and other thermal sources (coal, natural gas, oil, peat). It can be argued that hydro and thermal reservoirs determine electricity supply. Roughly speaking, the model takes into account electricity demand and supply, and several parameters related to them (water inflow, oil price, etc.), yielding finally the socially optimal outcomes. The author of this thesis is not aware of any similar model being tested before. There have been some other studies that are close to the Kauppi and Liski (2008) model, but those have a somewhat different focus. For example, a specific feature in the model is the focus on long-run capacity usage that differs from the previous studies on short-run market power. The closest study to the model is from California's wholesale electricity markets that, however, uses different methodology. Work is constructed as follows.

Blue mussel beds as biodiversity hotspots on the rocky shores of the northern Baltic Sea

ABSTRACT The Baltic Sea is a vulnerable ecosystem currently undergoing a number of changes, both natural and human induced. The changes are likely to affect the species found on these shores, e.g. their distribution and interactions with other species. Blue mussels (Mytilus trossulus x Mytilus edulis) provide one of the main biogenic hard structures on the shallow shores of the Baltic Sea where they aggregate into dense beds and provide a number of resources for over 40 associated macrofaunal species, thus functioning as ecosystem engineers. The blue mussel, being a marine species, is highly likely to be affected by any changes in sea water salinity, circulation and/or water balance. These changes could trickle down also to affect the associated macrofaunal communities. The aims of this thesis were three-fold: first, I examined and described the macrofaunal communities found within blue mussel patches since the fauna associated with mussel patches had never been described in the study area prior to this thesis. Second, I explored how changes in mussel density, size as well as patch size and shape would affect the mussel communities. Finally, I tested how general landscape theories derived from terrestrial studies function in blue mussel systems. Theories included the structural heterogeneity hypothesis, species-area relationships, edge effects and patch isolation effects. The work shows that blue mussels in the northern Baltic Sea have an indisputable function as diversity hotspots and that the faunal assemblages found in mussel patches are extremely rich and unique. Further on, it shows that changes in mussel biomass, size, patch size and amount of edge have the potential to alter the faunal assemblages and diversity within patches. Finally, it shows that although some landscape theories, such as the structural heterogeneity hypothesis, seem to apply also in blue mussel communities, others cannot be directly applied due to the different prevailing conditions in the study system. This is a pioneering work looking at diversity shaping processes on the rocky shores of the Gulf of Finland, making up over 40% of the total water basin. A focus on niche construction, positive facilitation effects and ecosystem engineering could provide new insights and methods for conservation biology, but before this can be done, we need to fully understand the circumstances under which a species becomes an ecosystem engineer and recognize the systems in which it functions.