32 resultados para prediction interval (Lis)

em Helda - Digital Repository of University of Helsinki


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Sepsis is associated with a systemic inflammatory response. It is characterised by an early proinflammatory response and followed by a state of immunosuppression. In order to improve the outcome of patients with infection and sepsis, novel therapies that influence the systemic inflammatory response are being developed and utilised. Thus, an accurate and early diagnosis of infection and evaluation of immune state are crucial. In this thesis, various markers of systemic inflammation were studied with respect to enhancing the diagnostics of infection and of predicting outcome in patients with suspected community-acquired infection. A total of 1092 acutely ill patients admitted to a university hospital medical emergency department were evaluated, and 531 patients with a suspicion of community-acquired infection were included for the analysis. Markers of systemic inflammation were determined from a blood sample obtained simultaneously with a blood culture sample on admission to hospital. Levels of phagocyte CD11b/CD18 and CD14 expression were measured by whole blood flow cytometry. Concentrations of soluble CD14, interleukin (IL)-8, and soluble IL-2 receptor α (sIL-2Rα) were determined by ELISA, those of sIL-2R, IL-6, and IL-8 by a chemiluminescent immunoassay, that of procalcitonin by immunoluminometric assay, and that of C-reactive protein by immunoturbidimetric assay. Clinical data were collected retrospectively from the medical records. No marker of systemic inflammation, neither CRP, PCT, IL-6, IL-8, nor sIL-2R predicted bacteraemia better than did the clinical signs of infection, i.e., the presence of infectious focus or fever or both. IL-6 and PCT had the highest positive likelihood ratios to identify patients with hidden community-acquired infection. However, the use of a single marker failed to detect all patients with infection. A combination of markers including a fast-responding reactant (CD11b expression), a later-peaking reactant (CRP), and a reactant originating from inflamed tissues (IL-8) detected all patients with infection. The majority of patients (86.5%) with possible but not verified infection showed levels exceeding at least one cut-off limit of combination, supporting the view that infection was the cause of their acute illness. The 28-day mortality of patients with community-acquired infection was low (3.4%). On admission to hospital, the low expression of cell-associated lipopolysaccharide receptor CD14 (mCD14) was predictive for 28-day mortality. In the patients with severe forms of community-acquired infection, namely pneumonia and sepsis, high levels of soluble CD14 alone did not predict mortality, but a high sCD14 level measured simultaneously with a low mCD14 raised the possibility of poor prognosis. In conclusion, to further enhance the diagnostics of hidden community-acquired infection, a combination of inflammatory markers is useful; 28-day mortality is associated with low levels of mCD14 expression at an early phase of the disease.

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The dissertation consists of three essays on misplanning wealth and health accumulation. The conventional economics assumes that individual's intertemporal preferences are exponential (exponential preferences, EP). Recent findings in behavioural economics have shown that, actually, people do discount near future relatively heavier than distant future. This implies hyperbolic intertemporal preferences (HP). Essays I and II concentrate especially on the effects of a delayed completion of tasks, a feature of behaviour that HP enables. Essay III uses current Finnish data to analyse the evolvement of the quality adjusted life years (QALYs) and inconsistencies in measuring that. Essay I studies the existence effects of a lucrative retirement savings program (SP) on the retirement savings of different individual types having HP. If the individual does not know that he will have HP also in the future, i.e. he is the naïve, for certain conditions, he delays the enrolment on SP until he abandons it. Very interesting finding is that the naïve retires then poorer in the presence than in the absence of SP. For the same conditions, the individual who knows that he will have HP also in the future, i.e. he is the sophisticated, gains from the existence of SP, and retires with greater retirement savings in the presence than in the absence of SP. Finally, capabilities to learn from past behaviour and about intertemporal preferences improve possibilities to gain from the existence but an adequate time to learn must be then guaranteed. Essay II studies delayed doctor's visits, theirs effects on the costs of a public health care system and government's attempts to control patient behaviour and fund the system. The controlling devices are a consultation fee and a deductible for that. The deductible is effective only for a patient whose diagnosis reveals a disease that would not get cured without the doctor's visit. The naives delay their visits the longest while EP-patients are the quickest visitors. To control the naives, the government should implement a low fee and a high deductible, while for the sophisticates the opposite is true. Finally, if all the types exist in an economy then using an incorrect conventional assumption that all individuals have EP leads to worse situation and requires higher tax rates than assuming incorrectly but unconventionally that only the naives exists. Essay III studies the development of QALYs in Finland 1995/96-2004. The essay concentrates on developing a consistent measure, i.e. independent of discounting, for measuring the age and gender specific QALY-changes and their incidences. For the given time interval, use of a relative change out of an attainable change seems to be almost intact to discounting and reveals that the greatest gains are for older age groups.

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The tackling of coastal eutrophication requires water protection measures based on status assessments of water quality. The main purpose of this thesis was to evaluate whether it is possible both scientifically and within the terms of the European Union Water Framework Directive (WFD) to assess the status of coastal marine waters reliably by using phytoplankton biomass (ww) and chlorophyll a (Chl) as indicators of eutrophication in Finnish coastal waters. Empirical approaches were used to study whether the criteria, established for determining an indicator, are fulfilled. The first criterion (i) was that an indicator should respond to anthropogenic stresses in a predictable manner and has low variability in its response. Summertime Chl could be predicted accurately by nutrient concentrations, but not from the external annual loads alone, because of the rapid affect of primary production and sedimentation close to the loading sources in summer. The most accurate predictions were achieved in the Archipelago Sea, where total phosphorus (TP) and total nitrogen (TN) alone accounted for 87% and 78% of the variation in Chl, respectively. In river estuaries, the TP mass-balance regression model predicted Chl most accurately when nutrients originated from point-sources, whereas land-use regression models were most accurate in cases when nutrients originated mainly from diffuse sources. The inclusion of morphometry (e.g. mean depth) into nutrient models improved accuracy of the predictions. The second criterion (ii) was associated with the WFD. It requires that an indicator should have type-specific reference conditions, which are defined as "conditions where the values of the biological quality elements are at high ecological status". In establishing reference conditions, the empirical approach could only be used in the outer coastal water types, where historical observations of Secchi depth of the early 1900s are available. The most accurate prediction was achieved in the Quark. In the inner coastal water types, reference Chl, estimated from present monitoring data, are imprecise - not only because of the less accurate estimation method but also because the intrinsic characteristics, described for instance by morphometry, vary considerably inside these extensive inner coastal types. As for phytoplankton biomass, the reference values were less accurate than in the case of Chl, because it was possible to estimate reference conditions for biomass only by using the reconstructed Chl values, not the historical Secchi observations. An paleoecological approach was also applied to estimate annual average reference conditions for Chl. In Laajalahti, an urban embayment off Helsinki, strongly loaded by municipal waste waters in the 1960s and 1970s, reference conditions prevailed in the mid- and late 1800s. The recovery of the bay from pollution has been delayed as a consequence of benthic release of nutrients. Laajalahti will probably not achieve the good quality objectives of the WFD on time.    The third criterion (iii) was associated with coastal management including the resources it has available. Analyses of Chl are cheap and fast to carry out compared to the analyses of phytoplankton biomass and species composition; the fact which has an effect on number of samples to be taken and thereby on the reliability of assessments. However, analyses on phytoplankton biomass and species composition provide more metrics for ecological classification, the metrics which reveal various aspects of eutrophication contrary to what Chl alone does.

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Useiden lääkkeiden yhtäaikainen käyttö on nykyään hyvin yleistä, mikä lisää lääkeaineiden haitallisten yhteisvaikutusten riskiä. Lääkeaineiden poistumisessa elimistöstä ovat tärkeässä osassa niitä hajottavat (metaboloivat) maksan sytokromi P450 (CYP) entsyymit. Vasta aivan viime vuosina on havaittu, että CYP2C8-entsyymillä voi olla tärkeä merkitys mm. lääkeaineyhteisvaikutuksissa. Eräät lääkeaineet voivat estää (inhiboida) CYP2C8-entsyymin kautta tapahtuvaa metaboliaa. Tässä työssä selvitettiin CYP2C8-entsyymiä estävien lääkkeiden vaikutusta sellaisten lääkeaineiden pitoisuuksiin, joiden aikaisemman tiedon perusteella arveltiin metaboloituvan CYP2C8-välitteisesti. Näiden lääkeaineiden metaboliaa tutkittiin myös koeputkiolosuhteissa (in vitro -menetelmillä). Lisäksi CYP2C8-entsyymiä estävän lipidilääke gemfibrotsiilin yhteisvaikutusmekanismia tutkittiin selvittämällä interaktion säilymistä koehenkilöillä gemfibrotsiilin annostelun lopettamisen jälkeen. Yhteisvaikutuksia tutkittiin terveillä vapaaehtoisilla koehenkilöillä käyttäen vaihtovuoroista koeasetelmaa. Koehenkilöille annettiin CYP2C8-entsyymiä estävää lääkitystä muutaman päivän ajan ja tämän jälkeen kerta-annos tutkimuslääkettä. Koehenkilöiltä otettiin useita verinäytteitä, joista määritettiin lääkepitoisuudet nestekromatografisilla tai massaspektrometrisillä menetelmillä. Gemfibrotsiili nosti ripulilääke loperamidin pitoisuudet keskimäärin kaksinkertaiseksi. Gemfibrotsiili lisäsi, mutta vain hieman, kipulääke ibuprofeenin pitoisuuksia, eikä sillä ollut mitään vaikutusta unilääke tsopiklonin pitoisuuksiin toisin kuin aiemman kirjallisuuden perusteella oli odotettavissa. Toinen CYP2C8-estäjä, mikrobilääke trimetopriimi, nosti diabeteslääke pioglitatsonin pitoisuuksia keskimäärin noin 40 %. Gemfibrotsiili nosti diabeteslääke repaglinidin pitoisuudet 7-kertaiseksi ja tämä yhteisvaikutus säilyi lähes yhtä voimakkaana vielä 12 tunnin päähän viimeisestä gemfibrotsiiliannoksesta. Tehdyt havainnot ovat käytännön lääkehoidon kannalta merkittäviä ja ne selvittävät CYP2C8-entsyymin merkitystä useiden lääkkeiden metaboliassa. Gemfibrotsiilin tai muiden CYP2C8-entsyymiä estävien lääkkeiden yhteiskäyttö loperamidin kanssa voi lisätä loperamidin tehoa tai haittavaikutuksia. Toisaalta CYP2C8-entsyymin osuus tsopiklonin ja ibuprofeenin metaboliassa näyttää olevan pieni. Trimetopriimi nosti kohtalaisesti pioglitatsonin pitoisuuksia, ja kyseisten lääkkeiden yhteiskäyttö voi lisätä pioglitatsonin annosriippuvaisia haittavaikutuksia. Gemfibrotsiili-repaglinidi-yhteisvaikutuksen päämekanismi in vivo näyttää olevan CYP2C8-entsyymin palautumaton esto. Tämän vuoksi gemfibrotsiilin estovaikutus ja yhteisvaikutusriski säilyvät pitkään gemfibrotsiilin annostelun lopettamisen jälkeen, mikä tulee ottaa huomioon käytettäessä sitä CYP2C8-välitteisesti metaboloituvien lääkkeiden kanssa.

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Septic shock is a common killer in intensive care units (ICU). The most crucial issue concerning the outcome is the early and aggressive start of treatment aimed at normalization of hemodynamics and the early start of antibiotics during the very first hours. The optimal targets of hemodynamic treatment, or impact of hemodynamic treatment on survival after first resuscitation period are less known. The objective of this study was to evaluate different aspects of the hemodynamic pattern in septic shock with special attention to prediction of outcome. In particular components of early treatment and monitoring in the ICU were assessed. A total of 401 patients, 218 with septic shock and 192 with severe sepsis or septic shock were included in the study. The patients were treated in 24 Finnish ICUs during 1999-2005. 295 of the patients were included in the Finnish national epidemiologic Finnsepsis study. We found that the most important hemodynamic variables concerning the outcome were the mean arterial pressures (MAP) and lactate during the first six hours in ICU and the MAP and mixed venous oxygen saturation (SvO2) under 70% during first 48 hours. The MAP levels under 65 mmHg and SvO2 below 70% were the best predictive thresholds. Also the high central venous pressure (CVP) correlated to adverse outcome. We assessed the correlation and agreement of SvO2 and mean central venous oxygen saturation (ScvO2) in septic shock during first day in ICU. The mean SvO2 was below ScvO2 during early sepsis. Bias of difference was 4.2% (95% limits of agreement 8.1% to 16.5%) by Bland-Altman analysis. The difference between saturation values correlated significantly to cardiac index and oxygen delivery. Thus, the ScvO2 can not be used as a substitute of SvO2 in hemodynamic monitoring in ICU. Several biomarkers have been investigated for their ability to help in diagnosis or outcome prediction in sepsis. We assessed the predictive value of N-terminal pro brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) on mortality in severe sepsis or septic shock. The NT-proBNP levels were significantly higher in hospital nonsurvivors. The NT-proBNP 72 hrs after inclusion was independent predictor of hospital mortality. The acute cardiac load contributed to NTproBNP values at admission, but renal failure was the main confounding factor later. The accuracy of NT-proBNP, however, was not sufficient for clinical decision-making concerning the outcome prediction. The delays in start of treatment are associated to poorer prognosis in sepsis. We assessed how the early treatment guidelines were adopted, and what was the impact of early treatment on mortality in septic shock in Finland. We found that the early treatment was not optimal in Finnish hospitals and this reflected to mortality. A delayed initiation of antimicrobial agents was especially associated with unfavorable outcome.

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The outcome of the successfully resuscitated patient is mainly determined by the extent of hypoxic-ischemic cerebral injury, and hypothermia has multiple mechanisms of action in mitigating such injury. The present study was undertaken from 1997 to 2001 in Helsinki as a part of the European multicenter study Hypothermia after cardiac arrest (HACA) to test the neuroprotective effect of therapeutic hypothermia in patients resuscitated from out-of-hospital ventricular fibrillation (VF) cardiac arrest (CA). The aim of this substudy was to examine the neurological and cardiological outcome of these patients, and especially to study and develop methods for prediction of outcome in the hypothermia-treated patients. A total of 275 patients were randomized to the HACA trial in Europe. In Helsinki, 70 patients were enrolled in the study according to the inclusion criteria. Those randomized to hypothermia were actively cooled externally to a core temperature 33 ± 1ºC for 24 hours with a cooling device. Serum markers of ischemic neuronal injury, NSE and S-100B, were sampled at 24, 36, and 48 hours after CA. Somatosensory and brain stem auditory evoked potentials (SEPs and BAEPs) were recorded 24 to 28 hours after CA; 24-hour ambulatory electrocardiography recordings were performed three times during the first two weeks and arrhythmias and heart rate variability (HRV) were analyzed from the tapes. The clinical outcome was assessed 3 and 6 months after CA. Neuropsychological examinations were performed on the conscious survivors 3 months after the CA. Quantitative electroencephalography (Q-EEG) and auditory P300 event-related potentials were studied at the same time-point. Therapeutic hypothermia of 33ºC for 24 hours led to an increased chance of good neurological outcome and survival after out-of-hospital VF CA. In the HACA study, 55% of hypothermia-treated patients and 39% of normothermia-treated patients reached a good neurological outcome (p=0.009) at 6 months after CA. Use of therapeutic hypothermia was not associated with any increase in clinically significant arrhythmias. The levels of serum NSE, but not the levels of S-100B, were lower in hypothermia- than in normothermia-treated patients. A decrease in NSE values between 24 and 48 hours was associated with good outcome at 6 months after CA. Decreasing levels of serum NSE but not of S-100B over time may indicate selective attenuation of delayed neuronal death by therapeutic hypothermia, and the time-course of serum NSE between 24 and 48 hours after CA may help in clinical decision-making. In SEP recordings bilaterally absent N20 responses predicted permanent coma with a specificity of 100% in both treatment arms. Recording of BAEPs provided no additional benefit in outcome prediction. Preserved 24- to 48-hour HRV may be a predictor of favorable outcome in CA patients treated with hypothermia. At 3 months after CA, no differences appeared in any cognitive functions between the two groups: 67% of patients in the hypothermia and 44% patients in the normothermia group were cognitively intact or had only very mild impairment. No significant differences emerged in any of the Q-EEG parameters between the two groups. The amplitude of P300 potential was significantly higher in the hypothermia-treated group. These results give further support to the use of therapeutic hypothermia in patients with sudden out-of-hospital CA.

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Acute renal failure (ARF) is a clinical syndrome characterized by rapidly decreasing glomerular filtration rate, which results in disturbances in electrolyte- and acid-base homeostasis, derangement of extracellular fluid volume, and retention of nitrogenous waste products, and is often associated with decreased urine output. ARF affects about 5-25% of patients admitted to intensive care units (ICUs), and is linked to high mortality and morbidity rates. In this thesis outcome of critically ill patients with ARF and factors related to outcome were evaluated. A total of 1662 patients from two ICUs and one acute dialysis unit in Helsinki University Hospital were included. In study I the prevalence of ARF was calculated and classified according to two ARF-specific scoring methods, the RIFLE classification and the classification created by Bellomo et al. (2001). Study II evaluated monocyte human histocompatibility leukocyte antigen-DR (HLA-DR) expression and plasma levels of one proinflammatory (interleukin (IL) 6) and two anti-inflammatory (IL-8 and IL-10) cytokines in predicting survival of critically ill ARF patients. Study III investigated serum cystatin C as a marker of renal function in ARF and its power in predicting survival of critically ill ARF patients. Study IV evaluated the effect of intermittent hemodiafiltration (HDF) on myoglobin elimination from plasma in severe rhabdomyolysis. Study V assessed long-term survival and health-related quality of life (HRQoL) in ARF patients. Neither of the ARF-specific scoring methods presented good discriminative power regarding hospital mortality. The maximum RIFLE score for the first three days in the ICU was an independent predictor of hospital mortality. As a marker of renal dysfunction, serum cystatin C failed to show benefit compared with plasma creatinine in detecting ARF or predicting patient survival. Neither cystatin C nor plasma concentrations of IL-6, IL-8, and IL-10, nor monocyte HLA-DR expression were clinically useful in predicting mortality in ARF patients. HDF may be used to clear myoglobin from plasma in rhabdomyolysis, especially if the alkalization of diuresis does not succeed. The long-term survival of patients with ARF was found to be poor. The HRQoL of those who survive is lower than that of the age- and gender-matched general population.

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Head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC) is the sixth most common cancer worldwide. Well-known risk factors include tobacco smoking and alcohol consumption. Overall survival has improved, but is still low especially in developing countries. One reason for this is the often advanced stage of the disease at the time of diagnosis, but also lack of reliable prognostic tools to enable individualized patient treatment to improve outcome. To date, the TNM classification still serves as the best disease evaluation criterion, although it does not take into account the molecular basis of the tumor. The need for surrogate molecular markers for more accurate disease prediction has increased research interests in this field. We investigated the prevalence, physical status, and viral load of human papillomavirus (HPV) in HNSCC to determine the impact of HPV on head and neck carcinogenesis. The prevalence and genotyping of HPV were assessed with an SPF10 PCR microtiter plate-based hybridization assay (DEIA), followed by a line probe-based genotyping assay. More than half of the patients had HPV DNA in their tumor specimens. Oncogenic HPV-16 was the most common type, and coinfections with other oncogenic and benign associated types also existed. HPV-16 viral load was unevenly distributed among different tumor sites; the tonsils harbored significantly greater amounts of virus than other sites. Episomal location of HPV-16 was associated with large tumors, and both integrated and mixed forms of viral DNA were detected. In this series, we could not show that the presence of HPV DNA correlated with survival. In addition, we investigated the prevalence and genotype of HPV in laryngeal carcinoma patients in a prospective Nordic multicenter study based on fresh-frozen laryngeal tumor samples to determine whether the tumors were HPV-associated. These patients were also examined and interviewed at diagnosis for known risk factors, such as tobacco smoking and alcohol consumption, and for several other habituations to elucidate their effects on patient survival. HPV analysis was performed with the same protocols as in the first study. Only 4% of the specimens harbored HPV DNA. Heavy drinking was associated with poor survival. Heavy drinking patients were also younger than nonheavy drinkers and had a more advanced stage of disease at diagnosis. Heavy drinkers had worse oral hygiene than nonheavy drinkers; however, poor oral hygiene did not have prognostic significance. History of chronic laryngitis, gastroesophageal reflux disease, and orogenital sex contacts were rare in this series. To clarify why vocal cord carcinomas seldom metastasize, we determined tumor lymph vessel (LVD) and blood vessel (BVD) densities in HNSCC patients. We used a novel lymphatic vessel endothelial marker (LYVE-1 antibody) to locate the lymphatic vessels in HNSCC samples and CD31 to detect the blood microvessels. We found carcinomas of the vocal cords to harbor less lymphatic and blood microvessels than carcinomas arising from sites other than vocal cords. The lymphatic and blood microvessel densities did not correlate with tumor size. High BVD was strongly correlated with high LVD. Neither BVD nor LVD showed any association with survival in our series. The immune system plays an important role in tumorigenesis, as neoplastic cells have to escape the cytotoxic lymphocytes in order to survive. Several candidate HLA class II alleles have been reported to be prognostic in cervical carcinomas, an epithelial malignancy resembling HNSCC. These alleles may have an impact on head and neck carcinomas as well. We determined HLA-DRB1* and -DQB1* alleles in HNSCC patients. Healthy organ donors served as controls. The Inno-LiPA reverse dot-blot kit was used to identify alleles in patient samples. No single haplotype was found to be predictive of either the risk for head and neck cancer, or the clinical course of the disease. However, alleles observed to be prognostic in cervical carcinomas showed a similar tendency in our series. DRB1*03 was associated with node-negative disease at diagnosis. DRB1*08 and DRB1*13 were associated with early-stage disease; DRB1*04 had a lower risk for tumor relapse; and DQB1*03 and DQB1*0502 were more frequent in controls than in patients. However, these associations reached only borderline significance in our HNSCC patients.

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The autonomic nervous system is an important modulator of ventricular repolarization and arrhythmia vulnerability. This study explored the effects of cardiovascular autonomic function tests on repolarization and its heterogeneity, with a special reference to congenital arrhythmogenic disorders typically associated with stress-induced fatal ventricular arrhythmias. The first part explored the effects of standardized autonomic tests on QT intervals in a 12-lead electrocardiogram and in multichannel magnetocardiography in 10 healthy adults. The second part studied the effects of deep breathing, Valsalva manouvre, mental stress, sustained handgrip and mild exercise on QT intervals in asymptomatic patients with LQT1 subtype of the hereditary long QT syndrome (n=9) and in patients with arrhythmogenic right ventricular dysplasia (ARVD, n=9). Even strong sympathetic activation had no effects on spatial QT interval dispersion in healthy subjects, but deep respiratory efforts and Valsalva influenced it in ways that were opposite in electrocardiographic and magnetocardiographic recordings. LQT1 patients showed blunted QT interval and sinus nodal responses to sympathetic challenge, as well as an exaggerated QT prolongation during the recovery phases. LQT1 patients showed a QT interval recovery overshoot in 2.4 ± 1.7 tests compared with 0.8 ± 0.7 in healthy controls (P = 0.02). Valsalva strain prolonged the T wave peak to T wave end interval only in the LQT1 patients, considered to reflect the arrhythmogenic substrate in this syndrome. ARVD patients showed signs of abnormal repolarization in the right ventricle, modulated by abrupt sympathetic activation. An electrocardiographic marker reflecting interventricular dispersion of repolarization was introduced. It showed that LQT1 patients exhibit a repolarization gradient from the left ventricle towards the right ventricle, significantly larger than in controls. In contrast, ARVD patients showed a repolarization gradient from the right ventricle towards the left. Valsalva strain amplified the repolarization gradient in LQT1 patients whereas it transiently reversed it in patients with ARVD. In conclusion, intrathoracic volume and pressure changes influence regional electrocardiographic and magnetocardiographic QT interval measurements differently. Especially recovery phases of standard cardiovascular autonomic functions tests and Valsalva manoeuvre reveal the abnormal repolarization in asymptomatic LQT1 patients. Both LQT1 and ARVD patients have abnormal interventricular repolarization gradients, modulated by abrupt sympathetic activation. Autonomic testing and in particular the Valsalva manoeuvre are potentially useful in unmasking abnormal repolarization in these syndromes.