Nonlinear mixture autoregressive model: economic applications

The aim of this dissertation is to model economic variables by a mixture autoregressive (MAR) model. The MAR model is a generalization of linear autoregressive (AR) model. The MAR -model consists of K linear autoregressive components. At any given point of time one of these autoregressive components is randomly selected to generate a new observation for the time series. The mixture probability can be constant over time or a direct function of a some observable variable. Many economic time series contain properties which cannot be described by linear and stationary time series models. A nonlinear autoregressive model such as MAR model can a plausible alternative in the case of these time series. In this dissertation the MAR model is used to model stock market bubbles and a relationship between inflation and the interest rate. In the case of the inflation rate we arrived at the MAR model where inflation process is less mean reverting in the case of high inflation than in the case of normal inflation. The interest rate move one-for-one with expected inflation. We use the data from the Livingston survey as a proxy for inflation expectations. We have found that survey inflation expectations are not perfectly rational. According to our results information stickiness play an important role in the expectation formation. We also found that survey participants have a tendency to underestimate inflation. A MAR model has also used to model stock market bubbles and crashes. This model has two regimes: the bubble regime and the error correction regime. In the error correction regime price depends on a fundamental factor, the price-dividend ratio, and in the bubble regime, price is independent of fundamentals. In this model a stock market crash is usually caused by a regime switch from a bubble regime to an error-correction regime. According to our empirical results bubbles are related to a low inflation. Our model also imply that bubbles have influences investment return distribution in both short and long run.

The function of Bmps and Runx2 in normal tooth development and in the pathogenesis of cleidocranial dysplasia

The development of many embryonic organs is regulated by reciprocal and sequential epithelial-mesenchymal interactions. These interactions are mediated by conserved signaling pathways that are reiteratively used. Cleidocranial dysplasia (CCD) is a congenital syndrome where both bone and tooth development is affected. The syndrome is characterized by short stature, abnormal clavicles, general bone dysplasia, and supernumerary teeth. CCD is caused by mutations in RUNX2, a transcription factor that is a key regulator of osteoblast differentiation and bone formation. The first aim of this study was to analyse the expression of a family of key signal molecules, Bone morphogenetic protein (Bmp) at different stages of tooth development. Bmps have a variety of functions and they were originally discovered as signals inducing ectopic bone formation. We performed a comparative in situ hybridisation analysis of the mRNA expression of Bmp2-7 from initiation of tooth development to differentiation of dental hard tissues. The expression patterns indicated that the Bmps signal between the epithelial and mesenchymal tissues during initiation and morphogenesis of tooth development, as well as during the differentiation of odontoblasts and ameloblasts. Furthermore, they are also part of the signalling networks whereby the enamel knot regulates the patterning of tooth cusps. The second aim was to study the role of Runx2 during tooth development and thereby to gain better understanding of the pathogenesis of the tooth phenotype in CCD. We analysed the tooth phenotype of Runx2 knockout mice and examined the patterns and regulation of Runx2 gene expression.. The teeth of wild-type and Runx2 mutant mice were compared by several methods including in situ hybridisation, tissue culture, bead implantation experiments, and epithelial-mesenchymal recombination studies. Phenotypic analysis of Runx2 -/- mutant tooth development showed that teeth failed to advance beyond the bud stage. Runx2 expression was restricted to dental mesenchyme between the bud and early bell stages of tooth development and it was regulated by epithelial signals, in particular Fgfs. We searched for downstream targets of Runx2 by comparative in situ hybridisation analysis. The expression of Fgf3 was downregulated in the mesenchyme of Runx2 -/- teeth. Shh expression was absent from the enamel knot in the lower molars of Runx2 -/- and reduced in the upper molars. In conclusion, these studies showed that Runx2 regulates key epithelial-mesenchymal interactions that control advancing tooth morphogenesis and histodifferentiation of the epithelial enamel organ. In addition, in the upper molars of Runx2 mutants extra buddings occured at the palatal side of the tooth bud. We suggest that Runx2 acts as an inhibitor of successional tooth formation by preventing advancing development of the buds. Accordingly, we propose that RUNX2 haploinsuffiency in humans causes incomplete inhibition of successional tooth formation and as a result supernumerary teeth.

Molecular Interactions Chlorin Assemblies and NMR Separations

Photosynthesis is a chemical process in which the energy of the light quanta is transformed into chemical energy. Chlorophyll (Chl) molecules play a key role in photosynthesis; they function in the antennae systems and in the photosynthetic reaction center where the primary charge separation (CS) takes place. Bio-inspired mimicry of the CS is an essential unit in dye-sensitized solar cells. Aim of this study was to design and develop electron donor-acceptor (EDA) pairs from Chls and fullerenes (C60) or carbon nanotubes (CNT). The supramolecular approach was chosen, as long synthetic sequences required by the covalent approach lead to long reaction schemes and low yields. Here, a π-interaction between soluble CNTs and Chl was used in EDA construction. Also, a beta-face selective two-point bound Chl-C60 EDA was introduced. In addition, the photophysical properties of the supramolecular EDA dyads were analyzed. In organic chemistry, nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectroscopy is the most vital analytical technique in use. Multi-dimensional NMR experiments have enabled a structural analysis of complex natural products and proteins. However, in mixture analysis NMR is still facing difficulties. In many cases overlapping signals can t be resolved even with the help of multi-dimensional experiments. In this work, an NMR tool based on simple host-guest chemistry between analytes and macromolecules was developed. Diffusion ordered NMR spectroscopy (DOSY) measures the mobilities of compounds in an NMR sample. In a liquid state NMR sample, each of the analytes has a characteristic diffusion coefficient, which is proportional to the size of the analyte. With normal DOSY experiment, provided that the diffusion coefficients of the analytes differ enough, individual spectra of analytes can be extracted. When similar sized analytes differ chemically, an additive can be introduced into the sample. Since macromolecules in a liquid state NMR sample can be considered practically stationary, even faint supramolecular interaction can change the diffusion coefficient of the analyte sufficiently for a successful resolution in DOSY. In this thesis, polyvinylpyrrolidone and polyethyleneglycol enhanced DOSY NMR techniques, which enable mixture analysis of similar in size but chemically differing natural products, are introduced.

Neuromagnetic studies on cortical somatosensory functions in infants and children : Normal development and effect of early brain lesions

Until recently, objective investigation of the functional development of the human brain in vivo was challenged by the lack of noninvasive research methods. Consequently, fairly little is known about cortical processing of sensory information even in healthy infants and children. Furthermore, mechanisms by which early brain insults affect brain development and function are poorly understood. In this thesis, we used magnetoencephalography (MEG) to investigate development of cortical somatosensory functions in healthy infants, very premature infants at risk for neurological disorders, and adolescents with hemiplegic cerebral palsy (CP). In newborns, stimulation of the hand activated both the contralateral primary (SIc) and secondary somatosensory cortices (SIIc). The activation patterns differed from those of adults, however. Some of the earliest SIc responses, constantly present in adults, were completely lacking in newborns and the effect of sleep stage on SIIc responses differed. These discrepancies between newborns and adults reflect the still developmental stage of the newborns’ somatosensory system. Its further maturation was demonstrated by a systematic transformation of the SIc response pattern with age. The main early adult­like components were present by age two. In very preterm infants, at term age, the SIc and SIIc were activated at similar latencies as in healthy fullterm newborns, but the SIc activity was weaker in the preterm group. The SIIc response was absent in four out of the six infants with brain lesions of the underlying hemisphere. Determining the prognostic value of this finding remains a subject for future studies, however. In the CP adolescents with pure subcortical lesions, contrasting their unilateral symptoms, the SIc responses of both hemispheres differed from those of controls: For example the distance between SIc representation areas for digits II and V was shorter bilaterally. In four of the five CP patients with cortico­subcortical brain lesions, no normal early SIc responses were evoked by stimulation of the palsied hand. The varying differences in neuronal functions, underlying the common clinical symptoms, call for investigation of more precisely designed rehabilitation strategies resting on knowledge about individual functional alterations in the sensorimotor networks.

Acquisition of focus by normal hearing and Cochlear implanted children

Two experiments investigated the perception of compound vs. phrasal stress and narrow focus in normally hearing children and children with Cochlear Implants (CI). Additionally, we investigated whether musical experience would predict children’s performance in these tasks. The results showed no difference between CI and normal-hearing (NH) children in either experiment. However, whereas we found no clear effect of age in the children’s stress detection, there was a clear age related trajectory in the ability to recognise (narrow) focus. Moreover, this trend was similar to what has been found previously for English children. Importantly, prior music experience was significantly linked to CI children’s perception of focus.

An Empirical Study of the Mixture of Time and Movements in Prices

This paper investigates the persistent pattern in the Helsinki Exchanges. The persistent pattern is analyzed using a time and a price approach. It is hypothesized that arrival times are related to movements in prices. Thus, the arrival times are defined as durations and formulated as an Autoregressive Conditional Duration (ACD) model as in Engle and Russell (1998). The prices are defined as price changes and formulated as a GARCH process including duration measures. The research question follows from market microstructure predictions about price intensities defined as time between price changes. The microstructure theory states that long transaction durations might be associated with both no news and bad news. Accordingly, short durations would be related to high volatility and long durations to low volatility. As a result, the spread will tend to be larger under intensive moments. The main findings of this study are 1) arrival times are positively autocorrelated and 2) long durations are associated with low volatility in the market.

DNA damage recognition in the normal epithelium of human prostate and seminal vesicles

Prostate cancer is one of the most prevalent cancer types in men. The development of prostate tumors is known to require androgen exposure, and several pathways governing cell growth are deregulated in prostate tumorigenesis. Recent genetic studies have revealed that complex gene fusions and copy - number alterations are frequent in prostate cancer, a unique feature among solid tumors. These chromosomal aberrations are though to arise as a consequence of faulty repair of DNA double strand breaks (DSB). Most repair mechanisms have been studied in detail in cancer cell lines, but how DNA damage is detected and repaired in normal differentiated human cells has not been widely addressed. The events leading to the gene fusions in prostate cancer are under rigorous studies, as they not only shed light on the basic pathobiologic mechanisms but may also produce molecular targets for prostate cancer treatment and prevention. Prostate and seminal vesicles are part of the male reproductive system. They share similar structure and function but differ dramatically in their cancer incidence. Approximately fifty primary seminal vesicle carcinomas have been reported worldwide. Surprisingly, only little is known on why seminal vesicles are resistant to neoplastic changes. As both tissues are androgen dependent, it is a mystery that androgen signaling would only lead to tumors in prostate tissue. In this work, we set up novel ex vivo human tissue culture models of prostate and seminal vesicles, and used them to study how DNA damage is recognized in normal epithelium. One of the major DNA - damage inducible pathways, mediated by the ATM kinase, was robustly activated in all main cell types of both tissues. Interestingly, we discovered that secretory epithelial cells had less histone variant H2A.X and after DNA damage lower levels of H2AX were phosphorylated on serine 139 (γH2AX) than in basal or stromal cells. γH2AX has been considered essential for efficient DSB repair, but as there were no significant differences in the γH2AX levels between the two tissues, it seems more likely that the role of γH2AX is less important in postmitotic cells. We also gained insight into the regulation of p53, an important transcription factor that protects genomic integrity via multiple mechanisms, in human tissues. DSBs did not lead to a pronounced activation of p53, but treatments causing transcriptional stress, on the other hand, were able to launch a notable p53 response in both tissue types. In general, ex vivo culturing of human tissues provided unique means to study differentiated cells in their relevant tissue context, and is suited for testing novel therapeutic drugs before clinical trials. In order to study how prostate and seminal vesicle epithelial cells are able to activate DNA damage induced cell cycle checkpoints, we used primary cultures of prostate and seminal vesicle epithelial cells. To our knowledge, we are the first to report isolation of human primary seminal vesicle cells. Surprisingly, human prostate epithelial cells did not activate cell cycle checkpoints after DSBs in part due to low levels of Wee1A, a kinase regulating CDK activity, while primary seminal vesicle epithelial cells possessed proficient cell cycle checkpoints and expressed high levels of Wee1A. Similarly, seminal vesicle cells showed a distinct activation of the p53 - pathway after DSBs that did not occur in prostate epithelial cells. This indicates that p53 protein function is under different control mechanisms in the two cell types, which together with proficient cell cycle checkpoints may be crucial in protecting seminal vesicles from endogenous and exogenous DNA damaging factors and, as a consequence, from carcinogenesis. These data indicate that two very similar organs of male reproductive system do not respond to DNA damage similarly. The differentiated, non - replicating cells of both tissues were able to recognize DSBs, but under proliferation human prostate epithelial cells had deficient activation of the DNA damage response. This suggests that prostate epithelium is most vulnerable to accumulating genomic aberrations under conditions where it needs to proliferate, for example after inflammatory cellular damage.

Inhibitory effects of wood extracts on the spoilage flora of marinated poultry meat

Polyphenolic compounds occurring naturally in knotwood of plants are known to have antimicrobial effects. The knots (i.e. the branch bases inside tree stems) and outer branches in pine trees contain a remarkably high concentration of phenolic stilbenes, while lignans are the major phenolic constituents of spruce knots. Large amount of these phenolic compounds can be extracted from wood knots at pulp and paper mills where their presence is undesirable. In Finland, marinating of broiler meat is done not only to increase or add value to the meat, but also to enhance the safety and shelf-life. These products are usually packed under a modified atmosphere for further protection against spoilage microorganisms. However, studies have revealed that addition of marinades to poultry products do not have an inhibitory effect on either some psychrotrophic anaerobic bacteria, such as Brochothrix thermosphacta or lactic acid bacteria associated with spoilage. Also, the activity of pathogenic Campylobacter jejuni is not affected by marinating. The objective of this study was to investigate the inhibitory and lethal activities of extracts from spruce (Picea spp.) and pine (Pinus spp.) knotwood and outer branches that are dissolved in ethanol against the spoilage microorganisms in modified atmosphere packaged marinated broiler products. Modified atmosphere packaged broiler products were separately inoculated with ‘normal’ marinades, marinades with 70% ethanol, marinades with a mixture of spruce and pine extracts dissolved in 70% ethanol or mixture of spruce and pine extracts in powder form. The bacterial colony forming units per gram obtained from each of the samples were analysed on de Man Rogosa and Sharpe agar at days 1, 6, 12 and 15. The results showed that there were significant differences in bacterial colony forming units per gram (P <0.05) between packages with ‘normal’ marinades and packages with extracts added to their marinades on the 12th and 15th day. It can be concluded that the addition of extracts from spruce and pine knotwood to marinades significantly retarded growth of spoilage microorganisms during the 15 day test period. However further research is warranted to characterise and establish the safety and suitability of the compound(s) in spruce and pine knotwood extracts that are responsible for inhibitory or lethal activity against the microbes that may be present in marinated poultry meat.