Cobreaking of Stock Prices and Contagion

Financial crises have shown that dramatic movements in one financial market can have a powerful impact on other markets. The paper proposes to use cobreaking to model comovements between financial markets during crises and to test for conta-gion. It finds evidence of cobreaking between stock returns in developed markets. Finding cobreaking has implications for the diversification of international investments. For emerging mar-ket stock returns the evidence of cobreaking is mainly due to the non-financial event of the 9/11 terrorist attacks in 2001. Fi-nancial crises originating in one emerging market do not spread to other markets, i.e., no contagion.

New Perspectives on the Roman Coinage on the Eastern Limes in the Late Republican and Roman Imperial Period

The Ph.D. thesis discusses the monetary development in Roman Syria and Judaea in the Late Republican and the Early Imperial Period, from a numismatic, archaeological and historical point of view. In effect, the work focuses on the 1st century B.C. to the 1st century A.D., that is, the assumed time of introduction of Roman denarii to the region. The work benefits from the silver coin hoards of Khirbet Qumran recently published by the author. Though discovered as early as 1955 at Qumran, where the famous Dead Sea Scrolls had been found prior to that in 1947, most hoards remained unpublished until 2007. A second important source utilized is the so-called Tax Law from Palmyra in Syria. Its significance lies in the fact that Palmyra used to be one of the most important cities on the Silk Road, along which luxury goods were transported into the Roman Empire and Rome itself. During the research conducted, studies of the provincial coinage of Judaea (A.D. 6-66) shed new light on the authority of the Roman governors in economic and monetary matters in eastern Mediterranean regions. Furthermore, a new suggestion as to the length of the mandate period of Pontius Pilate is made. The extent of Emperor Augustus monetary reforms as well as the military history of Judaea are discussed in the light of new analytical studies, which show that the production of Roman base metal coins appears to have been a highly controlled process, contrary to popular opinion. Statistical calculations related to the coin alloy revealed striking similarities with Roman and other local metalwork found in Israel; a fact previously unknown. Results indicate that both Roman and local metalwork consisted of outstandingly systematized practises and may have exploited the same metal sources. Information: Kenneth Lönnqvist (*25.7.1962) has studied at the University of Helsinki since 1981. Furthermore, Lönnqvist has lived in the Mediterranean countries and the Near East, and made research there at various scientific institutions and universities for ca. 7 years. Contact and sales of thesis: kenneth.lonnqvist@helsinki.fi

Perceived Value of Mobile Service Use and its Consequences

The thesis is positioned in the services marketing field. Previous mobile service research has identified perceived value or relative advantage as a stable predictor of use of services. However, a more detailed view of what customers value in mobile services is needed for marketing diverse types of mobile content and attracting committed customers. The direct relationships between multidimensional value and loyalty constructs have received limited attention in the previous literature, although a multidimensional view is needed for differentiating services. This thesis studies how perceived value of mobile service use affects customer commitment, repurchase intentions, word-of-mouth and willingness to pay. The doctoral thesis consists of three journal articles and one working paper. The four papers have different sub-aims and comprise individual empirical studies. Mixed methods including both personal interviews and survey data collected from end-users of different types of mobile content services are used. The conceptual mobile perceived value model that results from the first explorative empirical study supports a six- dimensional value view. The six dimensions are further categorized into two higher order constructs: content-related perceived value (emotional, social, convenience and monetary value) and context-related (epistemic and conditional value) perceived value. Structural equation modeling is used in the other three studies to validate this framework by analyzing the relationships between context- and content-related value, and how the individual perceived value dimensions affect commitment and behavioral outcomes. Analyzing the direct relationships revealed differences in the effect of perceived value dimensions between information and entertainment mobile service user groups, between effects on commitment, repurchase intentions and word-of-mouth intentions, as well as between effects on commitment to the provider and to the mobile channel as such. This thesis contributes to earlier perceived value literature by structuring the value dimensions into two groups. Most importantly, the thesis contributes to the value and loyalty literature by increasing understanding of how the different dimensions of perceived value directly affect commitment and post-purchase intentions. The results have implications for further theory development in the electronic services field using multidimensional latent constructs, and practical implications for enhancing commitment to content provider and for differentiated marketing strategies in the mobile field. The general conclusion of this thesis is that differentiated value-based marketing of mobile services is essential for attracting committed customers who will use the same providers’ content also in the future. Minna Pihlström is associated with the Centre for Relationship Marketing and Service Management (CERS) at Hanken.

Essays on macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy rules

Economic and Monetary Union can be characterised as a complicated set of legislation and institutions governing monetary and fiscal responsibilities. The measures of fiscal responsibility are to be guided by the Stability and Growth Pact, which sets rules for fiscal policy and makes a discretionary fiscal policy virtually impossible. To analyse the effects of the fiscal and monetary policy mix, we modified the New Keynesian framework to allow for supply effects of fiscal policy. We show that defining a supply-side channel for fiscal policy using an endogenous output gap changes the stabilising properties of monetary policy rules. The stability conditions are affected by fiscal policy, so that the dichotomy between active (passive) monetary policy and passive (active) fiscal policy as stabilising regimes does not hold, and it is possible to have an active monetary - active fiscal policy regime consistent with dynamical stability of the economy. We show that, if we take supply-side effects into ac-count, we get more persistent inflation and output reactions. We also show that the dichotomy does not hold for a variety of different fiscal policy rules based on government debt and budget deficit, using the tax smoothing hypothesis and formulating the tax rules as difference equations. The debt rule with active monetary policy results in indeterminacy, while the deficit rule produces a determinate solution with active monetary policy, even with active fiscal policy. The combination of fiscal requirements in a rule results in cyclical responses to shocks. The amplitude of the cycle is larger with more weight on debt than on deficit. Combining optimised monetary policy with fiscal policy rules means that, under a discretionary monetary policy, the fiscal policy regime affects the size of the inflation bias. We also show that commitment to an optimal monetary policy not only corrects the inflation bias but also increases the persistence of output reactions. With fiscal policy rules based on the deficit we can retain the tax smoothing hypothesis also in a sticky price model.

Impact of hysterectomy or levonorgestrel-releasing intrauterine system on ovarian function, bone, and sexual functioning in menorrhagic patients

The `VuoKKo` trial consisted of 236 women referred and randomised due to menorrhagia in the five university hospitals of Finland between November 1994 and November 1997. Of these women, 117 were randomised to hysterectomy and 119 to use levonorgestrel-releasing intrauterine system (LNG-IUS) to treat this complaint. Their follow-up visits took place six and twelve months after the treatment and five years after the randomisation. The first aim in the primary trial was quality-of-life and monetary aspects, and secondly in the present study to compare ovarian function, bone mineral density (BMD) and sexual functioning after these two treatment options. Ovarian function seemed to decrease after hysterectomy, demonstrated by increased hot flashes and serum follicle-stimulating hormone concentrations twelve months after the operation. Such an increase was not seen among LNG-IUS users. The pulsatility index of intraovarian arteries measured by two-dimensional ultrasound decreased in the hysterectomy group, but not in the LNG-IUS group. The decrease in serum inhibin B concentrations was similar in both groups, while ovarian artery circulation remained unchanged. BMD of the women measured by dual x-ray absorptiometry (DXA) at the lumbar spine and femoral neck at baseline and at five years after treatment showed BMD decrease at the lumbar spine among hysterectomised women, but not among LNG-IUS users. In both groups, BMD at the femoral neck had decreased. Differences between the groups were not, however, significant. Sexual functioning assessed by McCoy s sexual scale showed that sexual satisfaction as well as intercourse frequency had increased and sexual problems decreased among hysterectomised women six months after treatment. Among LNG-IUS users, sexual satisfaction and sexual problems remained unchanged. Although, the two groups did not differ in terms of sexual satisfaction or sexual problems at one-year and five-year follow-ups, LNG-IUS users were less satisfied with their partners than hysterectomised women.

Näkökulmia eurooppalaiseen sosiaalipolitiikkaan : malli, väestö, resurssit ja kommunikaatio

The study analyses European social policy as a political project that proceeds under the guidance of the European Commission. In the name of modernisation, the project aims to build a new idea for the welfare state. To understand the project, it is necessary to distance oneself from both the juridical competence of the European Union and the traditional national welfare state models. The question is about sharing problems, as well as solutions to them: it is the creation and sharing of common views, concepts and images that play a key role in European integration. Drawing on texts and speeches produced by the European Commission, the study throws light on the development of European social policy during the first years of the 2000s. The study "freeze-frames" the welfare debate having its starting points in the nation states in the name of the entity of Europe. The first article approaches the European social model as a story in itself, a preparatory, persuasive narrative that concerns the management of change. The article shows how the audience can be motivated to work towards a set target by using discursive elements in a persuasive manner: the function of a persuasive story is to convince the target audience of the appropriateness of the chosen direction and to shape their identity so that they are favourably disposed to the desired political targets. This is a kind of "intermediate state" where the story, despite its inner contradictions and inaccuracies, succeeds in appearing as an almost self-evident path towards a modern social policy that Europe is currently seen to be in need of. The second article outlines the European social model as a question of governance. Health as a sector of social policy is detached from the old political order, which was based on the welfare state, and is closely linked to economy. At the same time the population is primarily seen as an economic resource. The Commission is working towards a "Europe of Health" that grapples with the problem of governance with the help of the "healthisation" of society, healthy citizenship and health economics. The way the Commission speaks is guided by the Union's powerful interest to act as "Europe" in the field of welfare policy. At the same time, the traditional separateness of health policy is effaced in order to be able to make health policy reforms a part of the Union's wider modernisation targets. The third article then shows the European social policy as its own area of governance. The article uses an approach based on critical discourse analysis in examining the classification systems and presentation styles adopted by Commission communications, as well as the identities that they help build. In analysing the "new start" of the Lisbon strategy from the perspective of social policy, the article shows how the emphasis has shifted from the persuasive arguments for change with necessary common European targets in the early stages of the strategy towards the implementation of reforms: from a narrative to a vision and from a diagnosis to healing. The phase of global competition represents "the modern" with which European society with its culture and ways of life now has to be matched. The Lisbon strategy is a way to direct this societal change, thus building a modern European social policy. The fourth article describes how the Commission uses its communications policy to build practices and techniques of governance and how it persuades citizens to participate in the creation of a European project of change. This also requires a new kind of agency: agents for whom accountability and responsibilities mean integration into and commitment to European society. Accountability is shaped into a decisive factor in implementing the European Union's strategy of change. As such it will displace hierarchical confrontations and emphasise common action with a view to modernising Europe. However, the Union's discourse cannot be described as being a political language that would genuinely rouse and convince the audience at the level of everyday life. Keywords: European social policy, EU policy, European social model, European Commission, modernisation of welfare, welfare state, communications, discoursiveness.

From environmental concerns towards sustainable food provisioning. : Material flow and food consumption scenario studies on sustainability of agri-food systems

Agriculture is an economic activity that heavily relies on the availability of natural resources. Through its role in food production agriculture is a major factor affecting public welfare and health, and its indirect contribution to gross domestic product and employment is significant. Agriculture also contributes to numerous ecosystem services through management of rural areas. However, the environmental impact of agriculture is considerable and reaches far beyond the agroecosystems. The questions related to farming for food production are, thus, manifold and of great public concern. Improving environmental performance of agriculture and sustainability of food production, sustainabilizing food production, calls for application of wide range of expertise knowledge. This study falls within the field of agro-ecology, with interphases to food systems and sustainability research and exploits the methods typical of industrial ecology. The research in these fields extends from multidisciplinary to interdisciplinary and transdisciplinary, a holistic approach being the key tenet. The methods of industrial ecology have been applied extensively to explore the interaction between human economic activity and resource use. Specifically, the material flow approach (MFA) has established its position through application of systematic environmental and economic accounting statistics. However, very few studies have applied MFA specifically to agriculture. The MFA approach was used in this thesis in such a context in Finland. The focus of this study is the ecological sustainability of primary production. The aim was to explore the possibilities of assessing ecological sustainability of agriculture by using two different approaches. In the first approach the MFA-methods from industrial ecology were applied to agriculture, whereas the other is based on the food consumption scenarios. The two approaches were used in order to capture some of the impacts of dietary changes and of changes in production mode on the environment. The methods were applied at levels ranging from national to sector and local levels. Through the supply-demand approach, the viewpoint changed between that of food production to that of food consumption. The main data sources were official statistics complemented with published research results and expertise appraisals. MFA approach was used to define the system boundaries, to quantify the material flows and to construct eco-efficiency indicators for agriculture. The results were further elaborated for an input-output model that was used to analyse the food flux in Finland and to determine its relationship to the economy-wide physical and monetary flows. The methods based on food consumption scenarios were applied at regional and local level for assessing feasibility and environmental impacts of relocalising food production. The approach was also used for quantification and source allocation of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of primary production. GHG assessment provided, thus, a means of crosschecking the results obtained by using the two different approaches. MFA data as such or expressed as eco-efficiency indicators, are useful in describing the overall development. However, the data are not sufficiently detailed for identifying the hot spots of environmental sustainability. Eco-efficiency indicators should not be bluntly used in environmental assessment: the carrying capacity of the nature, the potential exhaustion of non-renewable natural resources and the possible rebound effect need also to be accounted for when striving towards improved eco-efficiency. The input-output model is suitable for nationwide economy analyses and it shows the distribution of monetary and material flows among the various sectors. Environmental impact can be captured only at a very general level in terms of total material requirement, gaseous emissions, energy consumption and agricultural land use. Improving environmental performance of food production requires more detailed and more local information. The approach based on food consumption scenarios can be applied at regional or local scales. Based on various diet options the method accounts for the feasibility of re-localising food production and environmental impacts of such re-localisation in terms of nutrient balances, gaseous emissions, agricultural energy consumption, agricultural land use and diversity of crop cultivation. The approach is applicable anywhere, but the calculation parameters need to be adjusted so as to comply with the specific circumstances. The food consumption scenario approach, thus, pays attention to the variability of production circumstances, and may provide some environmental information that is locally relevant. The approaches based on the input-output model and on food consumption scenarios represent small steps towards more holistic systemic thinking. However, neither one alone nor the two together provide sufficient information for sustainabilizing food production. Environmental performance of food production should be assessed together with the other criteria of sustainable food provisioning. This requires evaluation and integration of research results from many different disciplines in the context of a specified geographic area. Foodshed area that comprises both the rural hinterlands of food production and the population centres of food consumption is suggested to represent a suitable areal extent for such research. Finding a balance between the various aspects of sustainability is a matter of optimal trade-off. The balance cannot be universally determined, but the assessment methods and the actual measures depend on what the bottlenecks of sustainability are in the area concerned. These have to be agreed upon among the actors of the area

"Kyl mä varmaan kohta ymmärrän." : Asunnon suunnittelu -opetusohjelma oppilaiden ajattelun ja oppimisen haastajana peruskoulun kotitalousopetuksessa

"I will soon understand." The House Planning Program as an Enhancer of Pupils´ Thinking Skills and Learning in Home Economics at Comprehensive School The aim of the research was to build a study program for home economics education in order to enhance pupils´ thinking skills. The program was based on the intervention programs or strategies known as Cognitive Acceleration (CA), which are founded on the theories of Jean Piaget, Lev Vygotsky, and Reuven Feuerstein. In addition, Carl Bereiter s theory of knowledge building was integrated to the research. The viewpoint of home economics was based on the multidimensional foundation of home economics science, particularly household technology and house planning. I first analyzed the kind of body of knowledge home economics science and home economics education provides for enhancing thinking skills in home economics. For the study, a CATE (Cognitive Acceleration through Technology Education) program was adapted and modified and a House Planning program was created for home economics classes. The house planning program consisted of five lessons during which pupils learned how to make functional floor plans as well as choose furniture, household appliances and materials for the home. In order to obtain the required data, various classroom experiments were arranged in 2005 with grade 9 pupils at a comprehensive school in Helsinki. All the experiments were videotaped, and five hours of the videotaped material was edited and transcribed for closer examination. The material consisted of all the video-recorded activity of the selected study group. Interaction study and content analysis were used to analyze the data. Following the experiments, a small survey was conducted to solicit pupils´ and teacher´s opinions of the program. The analysis sheds light on the nature of pupils´ interaction and knowledge building in small group activity. Special attention was given to tracking pupils´ interaction during the socalled construction zone activity. The models and qualities of teacher´s aid and support during the lessons were examined as well. The results revealed the versatility of the pupils social interaction and common knowledge building that occurred during the small group activity. The pupils discussions, including their arguments, their sharing of ideas, and the multiple perspectives that emerged reflected home economics knowledge building. The construction zone activity appeared through expressions of cognitive conflict and metacognition. Cognitive conflict was evident in the pupils´ words and involved questioning, doubting and disputing. The metacognitive activity emerged by thinking aloud, choosing the strategies, and negotiating the results. The pupils also coordinated their activity, allocated the responsibility, and systematized their work. The teacher assisted by preparing new themes for the pupils and by participating in the small group work. The teacher´s help during the small group sessions strengthened the pupils activity in the construction zone. The results showed that one can utilize the wide multidisciplinary basis of home economics, which includes scientific knowledge but also the knowledge derived from practical activity and experience. In this study practical activity was undertaken as a planning project the result of which was a plan or a new vision for the house planning situation. The study showed that the House Planning program was able to enhance the pupils´ social interaction and collaboration. The learning environment challenged the pupils in a way that could be a gateway to further developing their thinking skills. The method of analysis created in the study could be a potential tool for examining social interaction, construction zone activity, and knowledge building in other learning environments as well. Key words: home economics, house planning, classroom experiment, thinking skills,cognitive conflict, metacognition, social interaction, knowledge building

Renewable Energy and Climate Policies: Studies in the Forest and Energy Sector

‪This dissertation examines the impacts of energy and climate policies on the energy and forest sectors, focusing on the case of Finland. The thesis consists of an introduction article and four separate studies. The dissertation was motivated by the climate concern and the increasing demand of renewable energy. In particular, the renewable energy consumption and greenhouse gas emission reduction targets of the European Union were driving this work. In Finland, both forest and energy sectors are in key roles in achieving these targets. In fact, the separation between forest and energy sector is diminishing as the energy sector is utilizing increasing amounts of wood in energy production and as the forest sector is becoming more and more important energy producer.‬ ‪The objective of this dissertation is to find out and measure the impacts of climate and energy policies on the forest and energy sectors. In climate policy, the focus is on emissions trading, and in energy policy the dissertation focuses on the promotion of renewable forest-based energy use. The dissertation relies on empirical numerical models that are based on microeconomic theory. Numerical partial equilibrium mixed complementarity problem models were constructed to study the markets under scrutiny. The separate studies focus on co-firing of wood biomass and fossil fuels, liquid biofuel production in the pulp and paper industry, and the impacts of climate policy on the pulp and paper sector.‬ ‪The dissertation shows that the policies promoting wood-based energy may have have unexpected negative impacts. When feed-in tariff is imposed together with emissions trading, in some plants the production of renewable electricity might decrease as the emissions price increases. The dissertation also shows that in liquid biofuel production, investment subsidy may cause high direct policy costs and other negative impacts when compared to other policy instruments. The results of the dissertation also indicate that from the climate mitigation perspective, perfect competition is the favored wood market competition structure, at least if the emissions trading system is not global.‬ ‪In conclusion, this dissertation suggests that when promoting the use of wood biomass in energy production, the favored policy instruments are subsidies that promote directly the renewable energy production (i.e. production subsidy, renewables subsidy or feed-in premium). Also, the policy instrument should be designed to be dependent on the emissions price or on the substitute price. In addition, this dissertation shows that when planning policies to promote wood-based renewable energy, the goals of the policy scheme should be clear before decisions are made on the choice of the policy instruments.‬