Climate change and agriculture: theory and application of mitigation policies

Agriculture’s contribution to climate change is controversial as it is a significant source of greenhouse gases but also a sink of carbon. Hence its economic and technological potential to mitigate climate change have been argued to be noteworthy. However, social profitability of emission mitigation is a result from factors among emission reductions such as surface water quality impact or profit from production. Consequently, to value comprehensive results of agricultural climate emission mitigation practices, these co-effects to environment and economics should be taken into account. The objective of this thesis was to develop an integrated economic and ecological model to analyse the social welfare of crop cultivation in Finland on distinctive cultivation technologies, conventional tillage and conservation tillage (no-till). Further, we ask whether it would be privately or socially profitable to allocate some of barley cultivation for alternative land use, such as green set-aside or afforestation, when production costs, GHG’s and water quality impacts are taken into account. In the theoretical framework we depict the optimal input use and land allocation choices in terms of environmental impacts and profit from production and derive the optimal tax and payment policies for climate and water quality friendly land allocation. The empirical application of the model uses Finnish data about production cost and profit structure and environmental impacts. According to our results, given emission mitigation practices are not self-evidently beneficial for farmers or society. On the contrary, in some cases alternative land allocation could even reduce social welfare, profiting conventional crop cultivation. This is the case regarding mineral soils such as clay and silt soils. On organic agricultural soils, climate mitigation practices, in this case afforestation and green fallow give more promising results, decreasing climate emissions and nutrient runoff to water systems. No-till technology does not seem to profit climate mitigation although it does decrease other environmental impacts. Nevertheless, the data behind climate emission mitigation practices impact to production and climate is limited and partly contradictory. More specific experiment studies on interaction of emission mitigation practices and environment would be needed. Further study would be important. Particularly area specific production and environmental factors and also food security and safety and socio-economic impacts should be taken into account.

Below-ground processes in meadow soil under elevated ozone and carbon dioxide : - Greenhouse gas fluxes, N cycling and microbial communities

This thesis focuses on how elevated CO2 and/or O3 affect the below-ground processes in semi-natural vegetation, with an emphasis on greenhouse gases, N cycling and microbial communities. Meadow mesocosms mimicking lowland hay meadows in Jokioinen, SW Finland, were enclosed in open-top chambers and exposed to ambient and elevated levels of O3 (40-50 ppb) and/or CO2 (+100 ppm) for three consecutive growing season, while chamberless plots were used as chamber controls. Chemical and microbiological analyses as well as laboratory incubations of the mesocosm soils under different treatments were used to study the effects of O3 and/or CO2. Artificially constructed mesocosms were also compared with natural meadows with regards to GHG fluxes and soil characteristics. In addition to research conducted at the ecosystem level (i.e. the mesocosm study), soil microbial communities were also examined in a pot experiment with monocultures of individual species. By comparing mesocosms with similar natural plant assemblage, it was possible to demonstrate that artificial mesocosms simulated natural habitats, even though some differences were found in the CH4 oxidation rate, soil mineral N, and total C and N concentrations in the soil. After three growing seasons of fumigations, the fluxes of N2O, CH4, and CO2 were decreased in the NF+O3 treatment, and the soil NH4+-N and mineral N concentrations were lower in the NF+O3 treatment than in the NF control treatment. The mesocosm soil microbial communities were affected negatively by the NF+O3 treatment, as the total, bacterial, actinobacterial, and fungal PLFA biomasses as well as the fungal:bacterial biomass ratio decreased under elevated O3. In the pot survey, O3 decreased the total, bacterial, actinobacterial, and mycorrhizal PLFA biomasses in the bulk soil and affected the microbial community structure in the rhizosphere of L. pratensis, whereas the bulk soil and rhizosphere of the other monoculture, A. capillaris, remained unaffected by O3. Elevated CO2 caused only minor and insignificant changes in the GHG fluxes, N cycling, and the microbial community structure. In the present study, the below-ground processes were modified after three years of moderate O3 enhancement. A tentative conclusion is that a decrease in N availability may have feedback effects on plant growth and competition and affect the N cycling of the whole meadow ecosystem. Ecosystem level changes occur slowly, and multiplication of the responses might be expected in the long run.

Use of biomass fuels in the brick-making industries of Sudan: Implications for deforestation and greenhouse gas emission

The study focuses on the potential roles of the brick making industries in Sudan in deforestation and greenhouse gas emission due to the consumption of biofuels. The results were based on the observation of 25 brick making industries from three administrative regions in Sudan namely, Khartoum, Kassala and Gezira. The methodological approach followed the procedures outlined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). For predicting a serious deforestation scenario, it was also assumed that all of wood use for this particular purpose is from unsustainable sources. The study revealed that the total annual quantity of fuelwood consumed by the surveyed brick making industries (25) was 2,381 t dm. Accordingly, the observed total potential deforested wood was 10,624 m3, in which the total deforested round wood was 3,664 m3 and deforested branches was 6,961 m3. The study observed that a total of 2,990 t biomass fuels (fuelwood and dung cake) consumed annually by the surveyed brick making industries for brick burning. Consequently, estimated total annual emissions of greenhouse gases were 4,832 t CO2, 21 t CH4, 184 t CO, 0.15 t N20, 5 t NOX and 3.5 t NO while the total carbon released in the atmosphere was 1,318 t. Altogether, the total annual greenhouse gases emissions from biomass fuels burning was 5,046 t; of which 4,104 t from fuelwood and 943 t from dung cake burning. According to the results, due to the consumption of fuelwood in the brick making industries (3,450 units) of Sudan, the amount of wood lost from the total growing stock of wood in forests and trees in Sudan annually would be 1,466,000 m3 encompassing 505,000 m3 round wood and 961,000 m3 branches annually. By considering all categories of biofuels (fuelwood and dung cake), it was estimated that, the total emissions from all the brick making industries of Sudan would be 663,000 t CO2, 2,900 t CH4, 25,300 t CO, 20 t N2O, 720 t NOX and 470 t NO per annum, while the total carbon released in the atmosphere would be 181,000 t annually.

Aerobic carbon-cycle related microbial communities in boreal peatlands: responses to water-level drawdown

Boreal peatlands represent a considerable portion of the global carbon (C) pool. Water-level drawdown (WLD) causes peatland drying and induces a vegetation change, which affects the decomposition of soil organic matter and the release of greenhouse gases (CO2 and CH4). The objective of this thesis was to study the microbial communities related to the C cycle and their response to WLD in two boreal peatlands. Both sampling depth and site type had a strong impact on all microbial communities. In general, bacteria dominated the deeper layers of the nutrient-rich fen and the wettest surfaces of the nutrient-poor bog sites, whereas fungi seemed more abundant in the drier surfaces of the bog. WLD clearly affected the microbial communities but the effect was dependent on site type. The fungal and methane-oxidizing bacteria (MOB) community composition changed at all sites but the actinobacterial community response was apparent only in the fen after WLD. Microbial communities became more similar among sites after long-term WLD. Litter quality had a large impact on community composition, whereas the effects of site type and WLD were relatively minor. The decomposition rate of fresh organic matter was influenced slightly by actinobacteria, but not at all by fungi. Field respiration measurements in the northern fen indicated that WLD accelerates the decomposition of soil organic matter. In addition, a correlation between activity and certain fungal sequences indicated that community composition affects the decomposition of older organic matter in deeper peat layers. WLD had a negative impact on CH4 oxidation, especially in the oligotrophic fen. Fungal sequences were matched to taxa capable of utilizing a broad range of substrates. Most of the actinobacterial sequences could not be matched to characterized taxa in reference databases. This thesis represents the first investigation of microbial communities and their response to WLD among a variety of boreal peatland habitats. The results indicate that microbial community responses to WLD are complex but dependent on peatland type, litter quality, depth, and variable among microbes.

The role of lakes in carbon cycling in boreal catchments

Lakes are an important component of ecosystem carbon cycle through both organic carbon sequestration and carbon dioxide and methane emissions, although they cover only a small fraction of the Earth's surface area. Lake sediments are considered to be one of rather perma-nent sinks of carbon in boreal regions and furthermore, freshwater ecosystems process large amounts of carbon originating from terrestrial sources. These carbon fluxes are highly uncer-tain especially in the changing climate. -- The present study provides a large-scale view on carbon sources and fluxes in boreal lakes situated in different landscapes. We present carbon concentrations in water, pools in lake se-diments, and carbon gas (CO2 and CH4) fluxes from lakes. The study is based on spatially extensive and randomly selected Nordic Lake Survey (NLS) database with 874 lakes. The large database allows the identification of the various factors (lake size, climate, and catchment land use) determining lake water carbon concentrations, pools and gas fluxes in different types of lakes along a latitudinal gradient from 60oN to 69oN. Lakes in different landscapes vary in their carbon quantity and quality. Carbon (C) content (total organic and inorganic carbon) in lakes is highest in agriculture and peatland dominated areas. In peatland rich areas organic carbon dominated in lakes but in agricultural areas both organic and inorganic C concentrations were high. Total inorganic carbon in the lake water was strongly dependent on the bedrock and soil quality in the catchment, especially in areas where human influence in the catchment is low. In inhabited areas both agriculture and habitation in the catchment increase lake TIC concentrations, since in the disturbed soils both weathering and leaching are presumably more efficient than in pristine areas. TOC concentrations in lakes were related to either catchment sources, mainly peatlands, or to retention in the upper watercourses. Retention as a regulator of the TOC concentrations dominated in southern Finland, whereas the peatland sources were important in northern Finland. The homogeneous land use in the north and the restricted catchment sources of TOC contribute to the close relationship between peatlands and the TOC concentrations in the northern lakes. In southern Finland the more favorable climate for degradation and the multiple sources of TOC in the mixed land use highlight the importance of retention. Carbon processing was intensive in the small lakes. Both CO2 emission and the Holocene C pool in sediments per square meter of the lake area were highest in the smallest lakes. How-ever, because the total area of the small lakes on the areal level is limited, the large lakes are important units in C processing in the landscape. Both CO2 and CH4 concentrations and emissions were high in eutrophic lakes. High availability of nutrients and the fresh organic matter enhance degradation in these lakes. Eutrophic lakes are often small and shallow, enabling high contact between the water column and the sediment. At the landscape level, the lakes in agricultural areas are often eutrophic due to fertile soils and fertilization of the catchments, and therefore they also showed the highest CO2 and CH4 concentrations. Export from the catchments and in-lake degradation were suggested to be equally important sources of CO2 and CH4 in fall when the lake water column was intensively mixed and the transport of sub-stances from the catchment was high due to the rainy season. In the stagnant periods, especially in the winter, in-lake degradation as a gas source was highlighted due to minimal mixing and limited transport of C from the catchment. The strong relationship between the annual CO2 level of lakes and the annual precipitation suggests that climate change can have a major impact on C cycling in the catchments. Increase in precipitation enhances DOC export from the catchments and leads to increasing greenhouse gas emissions from lakes. The total annual CO2 emission from Finnish lakes was estimated to be 1400 Gg C a-1. The total lake sediment C pool in Finland was estimated to be 0.62 Pg, giving an annual sink in Finnish lakes of 65 Gg C a-1.

Country-scale carbon accounting of the vegetation and mineral soils of Finland

The increase in global temperature has been attributed to increased atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHG), mainly that of CO2. The threat of severe and complex socio-economic and ecological implications of climate change have initiated an international process that aims to reduce emissions, to increase C sinks, and to protect existing C reservoirs. The famous Kyoto protocol is an offspring of this process. The Kyoto protocol and its accords state that signatory countries need to monitor their forest C pools, and to follow the guidelines set by the IPCC in the preparation, reporting and quality assessment of the C pool change estimates. The aims of this thesis were i) to estimate the changes in carbon stocks vegetation and soil in the forests in Finnish forests from 1922 to 2004, ii) to evaluate the applied methodology by using empirical data, iii) to assess the reliability of the estimates by means of uncertainty analysis, iv) to assess the effect of forest C sinks on the reliability of the entire national GHG inventory, and finally, v) to present an application of model-based stratification to a large-scale sampling design of soil C stock changes. The applied methodology builds on the forest inventory measured data (or modelled stand data), and uses statistical modelling to predict biomasses and litter productions, as well as a dynamic soil C model to predict the decomposition of litter. The mean vegetation C sink of Finnish forests from 1922 to 2004 was 3.3 Tg C a-1, and in soil was 0.7 Tg C a-1. Soil is slowly accumulating C as a consequence of increased growing stock and unsaturated soil C stocks in relation to current detritus input to soil that is higher than in the beginning of the period. Annual estimates of vegetation and soil C stock changes fluctuated considerably during the period, were frequently opposite (e.g. vegetation was a sink but soil was a source). The inclusion of vegetation sinks into the national GHG inventory of 2003 increased its uncertainty from between -4% and 9% to ± 19% (95% CI), and further inclusion of upland mineral soils increased it to ± 24%. The uncertainties of annual sinks can be reduced most efficiently by concentrating on the quality of the model input data. Despite the decreased precision of the national GHG inventory, the inclusion of uncertain sinks improves its accuracy due to the larger sectoral coverage of the inventory. If the national soil sink estimates were prepared by repeated soil sampling of model-stratified sample plots, the uncertainties would be accounted for in the stratum formation and sample allocation. Otherwise, the increases of sampling efficiency by stratification remain smaller. The highly variable and frequently opposite annual changes in ecosystem C pools imply the importance of full ecosystem C accounting. If forest C sink estimates will be used in practice average sink estimates seem a more reasonable basis than the annual estimates. This is due to the fact that annual forest sinks vary considerably and annual estimates are uncertain, and they have severe consequences for the reliability of the total national GHG balance. The estimation of average sinks should still be based on annual or even more frequent data due to the non-linear decomposition process that is influenced by the annual climate. The methodology used in this study to predict forest C sinks can be transferred to other countries with some modifications. The ultimate verification of sink estimates should be based on comparison to empirical data, in which case the model-based stratification presented in this study can serve to improve the efficiency of the sampling design.

Carbon dioxide and methane exchange between a boreal pristine lake and the atmosphere

Lakes serve as sites for terrestrially fixed carbon to be remineralized and transferred back to the atmosphere. Their role in regional carbon cycling is especially important in the Boreal Zone, where lakes can cover up to 20% of the land area. Boreal lakes are often characterized by the presence of a brown water colour, which implies high levels of dissolved organic carbon from the surrounding terrestrial ecosystem, but the load of inorganic carbon from the catchment is largely unknown. Organic carbon is transformed to methane (CH4) and carbon dioxide (CO2) in biological processes that result in lake water gas concentrations that increase above atmospheric equilibrium, thus making boreal lakes as sources of these important greenhouse gases. However, flux estimates are often based on sporadic sampling and modelling and actual flux measurements are scarce. Thus, the detailed temporal flux dynamics of greenhouse gases are still largely unknown. ----- One aim here was to reveal the natural dynamics of CH4 and CO2 concentrations and fluxes in a small boreal lake. The other aim was to test the applicability of a measuring technique for CO2 flux, i.e. the eddy covariance (EC) technique, and a computational method for estimation of primary production and community respiration, both commonly used in terrestrial research, in this lake. Continuous surface water CO2 concentration measurements, also needed in free-water applications to estimate primary production and community respiration, were used over two open water periods in a study of CO2 concentration dynamics. Traditional methods were also used to measure gas concentration and fluxes. The study lake, Valkea-Kotinen, is a small, humic, headwater lake within an old-growth forest catchment with no local anthropogenic disturbance and thus possible changes in gas dynamics reflect the natural variability in lake ecosystems. CH4 accumulated under the ice and in the hypolimnion during summer stratification. The surface water CH4 concentration was always above atmospheric equilibrium and thus the lake was a continuous source of CH4 to the atmosphere. However, the annual CH4 fluxes were small, i.e. 0.11 mol m-2 yr-1, and the timing of fluxes differed from that of other published estimates. The highest fluxes are usually measured in spring after ice melt but in Lake Valkea-Kotinen CH4 was effectively oxidised in spring and highest effluxes occurred in autumn after summer stratification period. CO2 also accumulated under the ice and the hypolimnetic CO2 concentration increased steadily during stratification period. The surface water CO2 concentration was highest in spring and in autumn, whereas during the stable stratification it was sometimes under atmospheric equilibrium. It showed diel, daily and seasonal variation; the diel cycle was clearly driven by light and thus reflected the metabolism of the lacustrine ecosystem. However, the diel cycle was sometimes blurred by injection of hypolimnetic water rich in CO2 and the surface water CO2 concentration was thus controlled by stratification dynamics. The highest CO2 fluxes were measured in spring, autumn and during those hypolimnetic injections causing bursts of CO2 comparable with the spring and autumn fluxes. The annual fluxes averaged 77 (±11 SD) g C m-2 yr-1. In estimating the importance of the lake in recycling terrestrial carbon, the flux was normalized to the catchment area and this normalized flux was compared with net ecosystem production estimates of -50 to 200 g C m-2 yr-1 from unmanaged forests in corresponding temperature and precipitation regimes in the literature. Within this range the flux of Lake Valkea-Kotinen yielded from the increase in source of the surrounding forest by 20% to decrease in sink by 5%. The free water approach gave primary production and community respiration estimates of 5- and 16-fold, respectively, compared with traditional bottle incubations during a 5-day testing period in autumn. The results are in parallel with findings in the literature. Both methods adopted from the terrestrial community also proved useful in lake studies. A large percentage of the EC data was rejected, due to the unfulfilled prerequisites of the method. However, the amount of data accepted remained large compared with what would be feasible with traditional methods. Use of the EC method revealed underestimation of the widely used gas exchange model and suggests simultaneous measurements of actual turbulence at the water surface with comparison of the different gas flux methods to revise the parameterization of the gas transfer velocity used in the models.

Silvicultural decisions based on simulation-optimization systems

Forest management is facing new challenges under climate change. By adjusting thinning regimes, conventional forest management can be adapted to various objectives of utilization of forest resources, such as wood quality, forest bioenergy, and carbon sequestration. This thesis aims to develop and apply a simulation-optimization system as a tool for an interdisciplinary understanding of the interactions between wood science, forest ecology, and forest economics. In this thesis, the OptiFor software was developed for forest resources management. The OptiFor simulation-optimization system integrated the process-based growth model PipeQual, wood quality models, biomass production and carbon emission models, as well as energy wood and commercial logging models into a single optimization model. Osyczka s direct and random search algorithm was employed to identify optimal values for a set of decision variables. The numerical studies in this thesis broadened our current knowledge and understanding of the relationships between wood science, forest ecology, and forest economics. The results for timber production show that optimal thinning regimes depend on site quality and initial stand characteristics. Taking wood properties into account, our results show that increasing the intensity of thinning resulted in lower wood density and shorter fibers. The addition of nutrients accelerated volume growth, but lowered wood quality for Norway spruce. Integrating energy wood harvesting into conventional forest management showed that conventional forest management without energy wood harvesting was still superior in sparse stands of Scots pine. Energy wood from pre-commercial thinning turned out to be optimal for dense stands. When carbon balance is taken into account, our results show that changing carbon assessment methods leads to very different optimal thinning regimes and average carbon stocks. Raising the carbon price resulted in longer rotations and a higher mean annual increment, as well as a significantly higher average carbon stock over the rotation.

Metsän kiertoajan vaikutus hiilensidontaan ja metsänkasvatuksen kannattavuuteen

Cost-effective mitigation of climate change is essential for both climate and environmental policy. Forest rotation age is one of the silvicultural measures by which the forest carbon stocks can be influenced with in accordance with the Kyoto Protocol, Article 3.4. The purpose of this study is to evaluate how forest rotation age affects carbon sequestration and the profitability of forestry. The relation between the forest rotation period optimizing forest owners’ discounted net returns over time and rotations which are 10, 20 and 30 years longer than the optimal rotation is examined. In addition, the cost of lengthening the rotation period is studied as well as whether carbon sequestration revenues can improve the profitability of forestry. The data used in the study consist of 16 stands located in Southern Finland. The main tree species in these stands were Norway spruce and Scots pine. Forest simulation tool MOTTI was used in the analysis. The results indicate that by lengthening the rotation period forest carbon stocks increase. However, as the rotation period is lengthened by more than 10 years, as a result of the diminishing growth curve, the rate of carbon sequestration slows down. The average discounted cost of carbon sequestration varied between 2.4 – 14.1 €/tCO2. Carbon sequestration rates in spruce stands were higher and the costs lower than those obtained from pine stands. The absence of carbon trading schemes is an obstacle for the commercialization of forest carbon sinks. In the future, research should concentrate on analysing what kind of operational models of carbon trading could be feasible in Finland.

Energiapuuharvennus osana metsänkasvatusta ja ilmastonmuutoksen hillitsemistä

The aim of this study was to compare the differences between forest management incorporating energy wood thinning and forest management based on silvicultural recommendations (baseline). Energy wood thinning was substituted for young stand thinning and the first commercial thinning of industrial wood. The study was based on the forest stand data from Southern Finland, which were simulated by the MOTTI-simulator. The main interest was to find out the climatic benefits resulting from carbon sequestration and energy substitution. The value of energy wood was set to substitute it for coal as an alternative energy fuel (emission trade). Other political instruments (Kemera subsidies) were also analysed. The largest carbon dioxide emission reductions were achieved as a combination of carbon sequestration and energy substitution (on average, a 26-90 % increase in discounted present value in the beginning of rotation) compared to the baseline. Energy substitution increased emission reductions more effectively than carbon sequestration, when maintaining dense young stands. According to the study, energy wood thinning as a part of forest management was more profitable than the baseline when the value of carbon dioxide averaged more than 15 €/CO2 and other political subsidies were unchanged. Alternatively, the price of energy wood should on average exceed 21 €/m3 on the roadside in order to be profitable in the absence of political instruments. The most cost-efficient employment of energy wood thinning occured when the dominant height was 12 meters, when energy substitution was taken into account. According to alternative forest management, thinning of sapling stands could be done earlier or less intensely than thinning based on silvicultural recommendations and the present criteria of subsidies. Consequently, the first commercial thinning could be profitable to carry out either as harvesting of industrial wood or energy wood, or as integrated harvesting depending on the costs of the harvesting methods available and the price level of small-size industrial wood compared to energy wood.

Suomen maatalouden tuottamat kasvihuonekaasujen päästöt eri politiikkaskenaarioissa

Climate change is the single biggest environmental problem in the world at the moment. Although the effects are still not fully understood and there is considerable amount of uncertainty, many na-tions have decided to mitigate the change. On the societal level, a planner who tries to find an eco-nomically optimal solution to an environmental pollution problem seeks to reduce pollution from the sources where reductions are most cost-effective. This study aims to find out how effective the instruments of the agricultural policy are in the case of climate change mitigation in Finland. The theoretical base of this study is the neoclassical economic theory that is based on the assumption of a rational economic agent who maximizes his own utility. This theoretical base has been widened towards the direction clearly essential to the matter: the theory of environmental eco-nomics. Deeply relevant to this problem and central in the theory of environmental economics are the concepts of externalities and public goods. What are also relevant are the problems of global pollution and non-point-source pollution. Econometric modelling was the method that was applied to this study. The Finnish part of the AGMEMOD-model, covering the whole EU, was used for the estimation of the development of pollution. This model is a seemingly recursive, partially dynamic partial-equilibrium model that was constructed to predict the development of Finnish agricultural production of the most important products. For the study, I personally updated the model and also widened its scope in some relevant matters. Also, I devised a table that can calculate the emissions of greenhouse gases according to the rules set by the IPCC. With the model I investigated five alternative scenarios in comparison to the base-line scenario of Agenda 2000 agricultural policy. The alternative scenarios were: 1) the CAP reform of 2003, 2) free trade on agricultural commodities, 3) technological change, 4) banning the cultivation of organic soils and 5) the combination of the last three scenarios as the maximal achievement in reduction. The maximal achievement in the alternative scenario 5 was 1/3 of the level achieved on the base-line scenario. CAP reform caused only a minor reduction when com-pared to the base-line scenario. Instead, the free trade scenario and the scenario of technological change alone caused a significant reduction. The biggest single reduction was achieved by banning the cultivation of organic land. However, this was also the most questionable scenario to be real-ized, the reasons for this are further elaborated in the paper. The maximal reduction that can be achieved in the Finnish agricultural sector is about 11 % of the emission reduction that is needed to comply with the Kyoto protocol.

Forest inventory-based large-scale forest biomass and carbon budget assessment: new enhanced methods and use of remote sensing for verification

In recent years, concern has arisen over the effects of increasing carbon dioxide (CO2) in the earth's atmosphere due to the burning of fossil fuels. One way to mitigate increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration and climate change is carbon sequestration to forest vegeta-tion through photosynthesis. Comparable regional scale estimates for the carbon balance of forests are therefore needed for scientific and political purposes. The aim of the present dissertation was to improve methods for quantifying and verifying inventory-based carbon pool estimates of the boreal forests in the mineral soils. Ongoing forest inventories provide a data based on statistically sounded sampling for estimating the level of carbon stocks and stock changes, but improved modelling tools and comparison of methods are still needed. In this dissertation, the entire inventory-based large-scale forest carbon stock assessment method was presented together with some separate methods for enhancing and comparing it. The enhancement methods presented here include ways to quantify the biomass of understorey vegetation as well as to estimate the litter production of needles and branches. In addition, the optical remote sensing method illustrated in this dis-sertation can be used to compare with independent data. The forest inventory-based large-scale carbon stock assessment method demonstrated here provided reliable carbon estimates when compared with independent data. Future ac-tivity to improve the accuracy of this method could consist of reducing the uncertainties regarding belowground biomass and litter production as well as the soil compartment. The methods developed will serve the needs for UNFCCC reporting and the reporting under the Kyoto Protocol. This method is principally intended for analysts or planners interested in quantifying carbon over extensive forest areas.

Analyzing changes in macro-level drivers of country-specific emissions : The role of consumption, technology and trade

Industrial ecology is an important field of sustainability science. It can be applied to study environmental problems in a policy relevant manner. Industrial ecology uses ecosystem analogy; it aims at closing the loop of materials and substances and at the same time reducing resource consumption and environmental emissions. Emissions from human activities are related to human interference in material cycles. Carbon (C), nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) are essential elements for all living organisms, but in excess have negative environmental impacts, such as climate change (CO2, CH4 N2O), acidification (NOx) and eutrophication (N, P). Several indirect macro-level drivers affect emissions change. Population and affluence (GDP/capita) often act as upward drivers for emissions. Technology, as emissions per service used, and consumption, as economic intensity of use, may act as drivers resulting in a reduction in emissions. In addition, the development of country-specific emissions is affected by international trade. The aim of this study was to analyse changes in emissions as affected by macro-level drivers in different European case studies. ImPACT decomposition analysis (IPAT identity) was applied as a method in papers I III. The macro-level perspective was applied to evaluate CO2 emission reduction targets (paper II) and the sharing of greenhouse gas emission reduction targets (paper IV) in the European Union (EU27) up to the year 2020. Data for the study were mainly gathered from official statistics. In all cases, the results were discussed from an environmental policy perspective. The development of nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions was analysed in the Finnish energy sector during a long time period, 1950 2003 (paper I). Finnish emissions of NOx began to decrease in the 1980s as the progress in technology in terms of NOx/energy curbed the impact of the growth in affluence and population. Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions related to energy use during 1993 2004 (paper II) were analysed by country and region within the European Union. Considering energy-based CO2 emissions in the European Union, dematerialization and decarbonisation did occur, but not sufficiently to offset population growth and the rapidly increasing affluence during 1993 2004. The development of nitrogen and phosphorus load from aquaculture in relation to salmonid consumption in Finland during 1980 2007 was examined, including international trade in the analysis (paper III). A regional environmental issue, eutrophication of the Baltic Sea, and a marginal, yet locally important source of nutrients was used as a case. Nutrient emissions from Finnish aquaculture decreased from the 1990s onwards: although population, affluence and salmonid consumption steadily increased, aquaculture technology improved and the relative share of imported salmonids increased. According to the sustainability challenge in industrial ecology, the environmental impact of the growing population size and affluence should be compensated by improvements in technology (emissions/service used) and with dematerialisation. In the studied cases, the emission intensity of energy production could be lowered for NOx by cleaning the exhaust gases. Reorganization of the structure of energy production as well as technological innovations will be essential in lowering the emissions of both CO2 and NOx. Regarding the intensity of energy use, making the combustion of fuels more efficient and reducing energy use are essential. In reducing nutrient emissions from Finnish aquaculture to the Baltic Sea (paper III) through technology, limits of biological and physical properties of cultured fish, among others, will eventually be faced. Regarding consumption, salmonids are preferred to many other protein sources. Regarding trade, increasing the proportion of imports will outsource the impacts. Besides improving technology and dematerialization, other viewpoints may also be needed. Reducing the total amount of nutrients cycling in energy systems and eventually contributing to NOx emissions needs to be emphasized. Considering aquaculture emissions, nutrient cycles can be partly closed through using local fish as feed replacing imported feed. In particular, the reduction of CO2 emissions in the future is a very challenging task when considering the necessary rates of dematerialisation and decarbonisation (paper II). Climate change mitigation may have to focus on other greenhouse gases than CO2 and on the potential role of biomass as a carbon sink, among others. The global population is growing and scaling up the environmental impact. Population issues and growing affluence must be considered when discussing emission reductions. Climate policy has only very recently had an influence on emissions, and strong actions are now called for climate change mitigation. Environmental policies in general must cover all the regions related to production and impacts in order to avoid outsourcing of emissions and leakage effects. The macro-level drivers affecting changes in emissions can be identified with the ImPACT framework. Statistics for generally known macro-indicators are currently relatively well available for different countries, and the method is transparent. In the papers included in this study, a similar method was successfully applied in different types of case studies. Using transparent macro-level figures and a simple top-down approach are also appropriate in evaluating and setting international emission reduction targets, as demonstrated in papers II and IV. The projected rates of population and affluence growth are especially worth consideration in setting targets. However, sensitivities in calculations must be carefully acknowledged. In the basic form of the ImPACT model, the economic intensity of consumption and emission intensity of use are included. In seeking to examine consumption but also international trade in more detail, imports were included in paper III. This example demonstrates well how outsourcing of production influences domestic emissions. Country-specific production-based emissions have often been used in similar decomposition analyses. Nevertheless, trade-related issues must not be ignored.

Canopy processes, fluxes and microclimate in a pine forest

Interaction between forests and the atmosphere occurs by radiative and turbulent transport. The fluxes of energy and mass between surface and the atmosphere directly influence the properties of the lower atmosphere and in longer time scales the global climate. Boreal forest ecosystems are central in the global climate system, and its responses to human activities, because they are significant sources and sinks of greenhouse gases and of aerosol particles. The aim of the present work was to improve our understanding on the existing interplay between biologically active canopy, microenvironment and turbulent flow and quantify. In specific, the aim was to quantify the contribution of different canopy layers to whole forest fluxes. For this purpose, long-term micrometeorological and ecological measurements made in a Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris) forest at SMEAR II research station in Southern Finland were used. The properties of turbulent flow are strongly modified by the interaction between the canopy elements: momentum is efficiently absorbed in the upper layers of the canopy, mean wind speed and turbulence intensities decrease rapidly towards the forest floor and power spectra is modulated by spectral short-cut . In the relative open forest, diabatic stability above the canopy explained much of the changes in velocity statistics within the canopy except in strongly stable stratification. Large eddies, ranging from tens to hundred meters in size, were responsible for the major fraction of turbulent transport between a forest and the atmosphere. Because of this, the eddy-covariance (EC) method proved to be successful for measuring energy and mass exchange inside a forest canopy with exception of strongly stable conditions. Vertical variations of within canopy microclimate, light attenuation in particular, affect strongly the assimilation and transpiration rates. According to model simulations, assimilation rate decreases with height more rapidly than stomatal conductance (gs) and transpiration and, consequently, the vertical source-sink distributions for carbon dioxide (CO2) and water vapor (H2O) diverge. Upscaling from a shoot scale to canopy scale was found to be sensitive to chosen stomatal control description. The upscaled canopy level CO2 fluxes can vary as much as 15 % and H2O fluxes 30 % even if the gs models are calibrated against same leaf-level dataset. A pine forest has distinct overstory and understory layers, which both contribute significantly to canopy scale fluxes. The forest floor vegetation and soil accounted between 18 and 25 % of evapotranspiration and between 10 and 20 % of sensible heat exchange. Forest floor was also an important deposition surface for aerosol particles; between 10 and 35 % of dry deposition of particles within size range 10 30 nm occurred there. Because of the northern latitudes, seasonal cycle of climatic factors strongly influence the surface fluxes. Besides the seasonal constraints, partitioning of available energy to sensible and latent heat depends, through stomatal control, on the physiological state of the vegetation. In spring, available energy is consumed mainly as sensible heat and latent heat flux peaked about two months later, in July August. On the other hand, annual evapotranspiration remains rather stable over range of environmental conditions and thus any increase of accumulated radiation affects primarily the sensible heat exchange. Finally, autumn temperature had strong effect on ecosystem respiration but its influence on photosynthetic CO2 uptake was restricted by low radiation levels. Therefore, the projected autumn warming in the coming decades will presumably reduce the positive effects of earlier spring recovery in terms of carbon uptake potential of boreal forests.

Suokasvillisuuden vaste muuttuvaan ilmastoon: kokeellinen tutkimus kuivumisen vaikutuksesta

Soilla on merkittävä rooli ilmastonmuutoksen hillitsemisessä suuren hiilivarastonsa sekä ekosysteemin ja ilmakehän välisen kaasunvaihdon ansiosta. Ilmastonmuutoksen ennustetaan vaikuttavan suokasvillisuuteen ja suon toimintaan epäsuorasti. Vedenpinnan ennustetaan laskevan 14–21 cm johtuen kasveista ja avoimilta pinnoilta tapahtuvan haihdunnan lisääntymisestä lämpötilan noustessa, mikäli sadanta ei lisäänny. Aiemmat vedenpinnan laskun jälkeistä kasvillisuutta seuranneet tutkimukset ovat osoittaneet, että putkilokasvit hyötyvät alhaisemmasta vedenpinnan tasosta ja että kuljuun sopeutuneet rahkasammalet kärsivät kuivuneista oloista. Kasvillisuuden runsaussuhteiden muuttumisen lisäksi kasviyhteisöjen monimuotoisuus vähenee. Erityisen herkkiä vedenpinnan laskulle ovat olleet välipinta- ja kuljurahkasammalet ja sarat. Funktionaalisten kasviryhmien vasteiden selvittämiksesi käytettiin BACI (before-after-control-impact) –tutkimusotetta. Tutkimuksessa oli kolme verrokkialaa ja kolme käsittelyalaa, joissa vedenpintaa oli laskettu 14–21 senttimetriin. Lisäksi vertailukohdaksi tutkimuksessa oli mukana kolme alaa, joissa oli tehty metsäojitus n. 50 vuotta sitten. Nämä toistot sijaitsivat meso-, oligo ombrotrofisilla suotyypeillä Oriveden Lakkasuolla. Kasvillisuus kartoitettiin ja vedenpinnat mitattiin aloilta ennen käsittelyä vuonna 2000 sekä vuosina 2001–2003 ja 2009. Aineisto analysoitiin TWINSPAN- (PC-Ord), PRC ja DCA (CANOCO)-monimuuttujamenetelmillä. Tulokset osoittivat, että verrokki- ja käsittelyalat olivat samanlaisia lähtökohdiltaan, joten niitä voitiin käsittelyn jälkeen verrata toisiinsa. Kasvillisuuden rakenne vaihteli vuosien välillä myös verrokkialoilla, mikä osoittaa kasvien sopeutumiskyvyn muuttuviin sääoloihin (lämpötila, sademäärä). Vuosi 2003 erottui tutkimuksessa alhaisella vedenpinnantasolla, mutta toisaalta myös ainavihantien varpujen suuren peittävyyden osalta. Vuoteen 2009 mennessä kasvillisuuden erityisesti sarojen peittävyys väheni. Ravinteikkaimmilla toistoilla kasvillisuuden vasteet vaikuttivat olevan vahvemmat kuin vähäravinteisilla toistoilla. Kasviryhmistä kulju- ja välipintasammalilla oli vahvimmat vasteetvedenpinnan laskuun ja mätäslajeilla heikoimmat. Tulosten mukaan kasviryhmien vasteet vaihtelevat riippuen tarkasteltavasta aikajaksosta: ensimmäiset kolme vuotta käsittelyn jälkeen suo oli häiriötilassa ja vasta sen jälkeen kasvillisuus sopeutui muuttuneisiin oloihin.