Climate change and agriculture: theory and application of mitigation policies

Agriculture’s contribution to climate change is controversial as it is a significant source of greenhouse gases but also a sink of carbon. Hence its economic and technological potential to mitigate climate change have been argued to be noteworthy. However, social profitability of emission mitigation is a result from factors among emission reductions such as surface water quality impact or profit from production. Consequently, to value comprehensive results of agricultural climate emission mitigation practices, these co-effects to environment and economics should be taken into account. The objective of this thesis was to develop an integrated economic and ecological model to analyse the social welfare of crop cultivation in Finland on distinctive cultivation technologies, conventional tillage and conservation tillage (no-till). Further, we ask whether it would be privately or socially profitable to allocate some of barley cultivation for alternative land use, such as green set-aside or afforestation, when production costs, GHG’s and water quality impacts are taken into account. In the theoretical framework we depict the optimal input use and land allocation choices in terms of environmental impacts and profit from production and derive the optimal tax and payment policies for climate and water quality friendly land allocation. The empirical application of the model uses Finnish data about production cost and profit structure and environmental impacts. According to our results, given emission mitigation practices are not self-evidently beneficial for farmers or society. On the contrary, in some cases alternative land allocation could even reduce social welfare, profiting conventional crop cultivation. This is the case regarding mineral soils such as clay and silt soils. On organic agricultural soils, climate mitigation practices, in this case afforestation and green fallow give more promising results, decreasing climate emissions and nutrient runoff to water systems. No-till technology does not seem to profit climate mitigation although it does decrease other environmental impacts. Nevertheless, the data behind climate emission mitigation practices impact to production and climate is limited and partly contradictory. More specific experiment studies on interaction of emission mitigation practices and environment would be needed. Further study would be important. Particularly area specific production and environmental factors and also food security and safety and socio-economic impacts should be taken into account.

Assessment and mitigation of agricultural water pollution

Yhteenveto: Maatalouden aiheuttama vesistönkuormitus ja sen vähentäminen

Use of wetland buffer areas to reduce nitrogen transport from forested catchments: Retention capacity, emissions of N2O and CH4 and vegetation composition dynamics

The use of buffer areas in forested catchments has been actively researched during the last 15 years; but until now, the research has mainly concentrated on the reduction of sediment and phosphorus loads, instead of nitrogen (N). The aim of this thesis was to examine the use of wetland buffer areas to reduce the nitrogen transport in forested catchments and to investigate the environmental impacts involved in their use. Besides the retention capacity, particular attention was paid to the main factors contributing to the N retention, the potential for increased N2O emissions after large N loading, the effects of peatland restoration for use as buffer areas on CH4 emissions, as well as the vegetation composition dynamics induced by the use of peatlands as buffer areas. To study the capacity of buffer areas to reduce N transport in forested catchments, we first used large artificial loadings of N, and then studied the capacity of buffer areas to reduce ammonium (NH4-N) export originating from ditch network maintenance areas in forested catchments. The potential for increased N2O emissions were studied using the closed chamber technique and a large artificial N loading at five buffer areas. Sampling for CH4 emissions and methane-cycling microbial populations were done on three restored buffer areas and on three buffers constructed on natural peatlands. Vegetation composition dynamics was studied at three buffer areas between 1996 and 2009. Wetland buffer areas were efficient in retaining inorganic N from inflow. The key factors contributing to the retention were the size and the length of the buffer, the hydrological loading and the rate of nutrient loading. Our results show that although the N2O emissions may increase temporarily to very high levels after a large N loading into the buffer area, the buffer areas in forested catchments should be viewed as insignificant sources of N2O. CH4 fluxes were substantially higher from buffers constructed on natural peatlands than from the restored buffer areas, probably because of the slow recovery of methanogens after restoration. The use of peatlands as buffer areas was followed by clear changes in plant species composition and the largest changes occurred in the upstream parts of the buffer areas and the wet lawn-level surfaces, where the contact between the vegetation and the through-flow waters was closer than for the downstream parts and dry hummock sites. The changes in the plant species composition may be an undesired phenomenon especially in the case of the mires representing endangered mire site types, and therefore the construction of new buffer areas should be primarily directed into drained peatland areas.

Sensitivity of wetland methane emissions to model assumptions: application and model testing against site observations

Abstract. Methane emissions from natural wetlands and rice paddies constitute a large proportion of atmospheric methane, but the magnitude and year-to-year variation of these methane sources is still unpredictable. Here we describe and evaluate the integration of a methane biogeochemical model (CLM4Me; Riley et al., 2011) into the Community Land Model 4.0 (CLM4CN) in order to better explain spatial and temporal variations in methane emissions. We test new functions for soil pH and redox potential that impact microbial methane production in soils. We also constrain aerenchyma in plants in always-inundated areas in order to better represent wetland vegetation. Satellite inundated fraction is explicitly prescribed in the model because there are large differences between simulated fractional inundation and satellite observations. A rice paddy module is also incorporated into the model, where the fraction of land used for rice production is explicitly prescribed. The model is evaluated at the site level with vegetation cover and water table prescribed from measurements. Explicit site level evaluations of simulated methane emissions are quite different than evaluating the grid cell averaged emissions against available measurements. Using a baseline set of parameter values, our model-estimated average global wetland emissions for the period 1993–2004 were 256 Tg CH4 yr−1, and rice paddy emissions in the year 2000 were 42 Tg CH4 yr−1. Tropical wetlands contributed 201 Tg CH4 yr−1, or 78 % of the global wetland flux. Northern latitude (>50 N) systems contributed 12 Tg CH4 yr−1. We expect this latter number may be an underestimate due to the low high-latitude inundated area captured by satellites and unrealistically low high-latitude productivity and soil carbon predicted by CLM4. Sensitivity analysis showed a large range (150–346 Tg CH4 yr−1) in predicted global methane emissions. The large range was sensitive to: (1) the amount of methane transported through aerenchyma, (2) soil pH (± 100 Tg CH4 yr−1), and (3) redox inhibition (± 45 Tg CH4 yr−1).

Community Pharmacies and the Needs of Mobile EU Citizens - A study on Finns living in Spain

Migration within the European Union (EU) has increased since the Union was established. Community pharmacies provide open access to health care services and can be the first, most frequently used or even the only contact with a nation s health care system among mobile community residents. In some of the mass-migration areas in Southern Europe, most of the customers may represent mobile citizens of foreign background. This has not always been taken into consideration in the development of community pharmacy services. Mobile patients have been on the EU's health policy agenda, but they have seldom been mentioned in the context of community pharmacies. In most of the EU member states, governments control the specific legislation concerning community pharmacies and there is no harmonised pharmaceutical policy or consistent minimal standards for community pharmacy services in the EU. The aim of this study was to understand medication use, the role of community pharmacies and the symptom mitigation process of mobile community residents. Finns living in Spain were used as an example to examine how community pharmacies in a EU member state meet the needs of mobile community residents. The data were collected by a survey in 2002 (response rate 53%, n= 533) and by five focus group discussions in 2006 (n=30). A large number (70%) of the respondents had moved to Spain for health reasons and suffered from chronic morbidity. Community pharmacies had an important role in the healthcare of mobile community residents and the respondents were mostly satisfied with these services. However, several medication safety risks related to community pharmacy practices were identified: 1) Availability of prescription medicines without prescription (e.g., antibiotics, sleeping pills, Viagra®, asthma medications, cardiovascular medicines, psoriasis medicines and analgesics); 2) Irrational use of medicines (e.g., 41% of antibiotic users had bought their antibiotics without a prescription, and the most common reasons for antibiotic self-medication were symptomatic common colds and sore throats); 3) Language barriers between patients and pharmacy professionals; 4) Lack of medication counselling; 5) Unqualified pharmacy personnel providing pharmacotherapy. A fifth of the respondents reported experiencing problems during pharmacy visits in Spain, and the lack of a common language was the source of most of these problems. The findings of this study indicate that regulations and their enforcement can play a crucial role in actually assuring the rational and safe use of medicines. These results can be used in the development of pharmaceutical and healthcare policies in the EU. It is important to define consistent minimum standards for community pharmacy services in the EU. Then, the increasing number of mobile community residents could access safe and high quality health care services, including community pharmacy services, in every member state within the EU.

Burnt area mapping in insular Southeast Asia using medium resolution satellite imagery

Burnt area mapping in humid tropical insular Southeast Asia using medium resolution (250-500m) satellite imagery is characterized by persisting cloud cover, wide range of land cover types, vast amount of wetland areas and highly varying fire regimes. The objective of this study was to deepen understanding of three major aspects affecting the implementation and limits of medium resolution burnt area mapping in insular Southeast Asia: 1) fire-induced spectral changes, 2) most suitable multitemporal compositing methods and 3) burn scars patterns and size distribution. The results revealed a high variation in fire-induced spectral changes depending on the pre-fire greenness of burnt area. It was concluded that this variation needs to be taken into account in change detection based burnt area mapping algorithms in order to maximize the potential of medium resolution satellite data. Minimum near infrared (MODIS band 2, 0.86μm) compositing method was found to be the most suitable for burnt area mapping purposes using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data. In general, medium resolution burnt area mapping was found to be usable in the wetlands of insular Southeast Asia, whereas in other areas the usability was seriously jeopardized by the small size of burn scars. The suitability of medium resolution data for burnt area mapping in wetlands is important since recently Southeast Asian wetlands have become a major point of interest in many fields of science due to yearly occurring wild fires that not only degrade these unique ecosystems but also create regional haze problem and release globally significant amounts of carbon into the atmosphere due to burning peat. Finally, super-resolution MODIS images were tested but the test failed to improve the detection of small scars. Therefore, super-resolution technique was not considered to be applicable to regional level burnt area mapping in insular Southeast Asia.

Metsän kiertoajan vaikutus hiilensidontaan ja metsänkasvatuksen kannattavuuteen

Cost-effective mitigation of climate change is essential for both climate and environmental policy. Forest rotation age is one of the silvicultural measures by which the forest carbon stocks can be influenced with in accordance with the Kyoto Protocol, Article 3.4. The purpose of this study is to evaluate how forest rotation age affects carbon sequestration and the profitability of forestry. The relation between the forest rotation period optimizing forest owners’ discounted net returns over time and rotations which are 10, 20 and 30 years longer than the optimal rotation is examined. In addition, the cost of lengthening the rotation period is studied as well as whether carbon sequestration revenues can improve the profitability of forestry. The data used in the study consist of 16 stands located in Southern Finland. The main tree species in these stands were Norway spruce and Scots pine. Forest simulation tool MOTTI was used in the analysis. The results indicate that by lengthening the rotation period forest carbon stocks increase. However, as the rotation period is lengthened by more than 10 years, as a result of the diminishing growth curve, the rate of carbon sequestration slows down. The average discounted cost of carbon sequestration varied between 2.4 – 14.1 €/tCO2. Carbon sequestration rates in spruce stands were higher and the costs lower than those obtained from pine stands. The absence of carbon trading schemes is an obstacle for the commercialization of forest carbon sinks. In the future, research should concentrate on analysing what kind of operational models of carbon trading could be feasible in Finland.

Essays on socially optimal phosphorus policies in crop production

Phosphorus is a nutrient needed in crop production. While boosting crop yields it may also accelerate eutrophication in the surface waters receiving the phosphorus runoff. The privately optimal level of phosphorus use is determined by the input and output prices, and the crop response to phosphorus. Socially optimal use also takes into account the impact of phosphorus runoff on water quality. Increased eutrophication decreases the economic value of surface waters by Deteriorating fish stocks, curtailing the potential for recreational activities and by increasing the probabilities of mass algae blooms. In this dissertation, the optimal use of phosphorus is modelled as a dynamic optimization problem. The potentially plant available phosphorus accumulated in soil is treated as a dynamic state variable, the control variable being the annual phosphorus fertilization. For crop response to phosphorus, the state variable is more important than the annual fertilization. The level of this state variable is also a key determinant of the runoff of dissolved, reactive phosphorus. Also the loss of particulate phosphorus due to erosion is considered in the thesis, as well as its mitigation by constructing vegetative buffers. The dynamic model is applied for crop production on clay soils. At the steady state, the analysis focuses on the effects of prices, damage parameterization, discount rate and soil phosphorus carryover capacity on optimal steady state phosphorus use. The economic instruments needed to sustain the social optimum are also analyzed. According to the results the economic incentives should be conditioned on soil phosphorus values directly, rather than on annual phosphorus applications. The results also emphasize the substantial effects the differences in varying discount rates of the farmer and the social planner have on optimal instruments. The thesis analyzes the optimal soil phosphorus paths from its alternative initial levels. It also examines how erosion susceptibility of a parcel affects these optimal paths. The results underline the significance of the prevailing soil phosphorus status on optimal fertilization levels. With very high initial soil phosphorus levels, both the privately and socially optimal phosphorus application levels are close to zero as the state variable is driven towards its steady state. The soil phosphorus processes are slow. Therefore, depleting high phosphorus soils may take decades. The thesis also presents a methodologically interesting phenomenon in problems of maximizing the flow of discounted payoffs. When both the benefits and damages are related to the same state variable, the steady state solution may have an interesting property, under very general conditions: The tail of the payoffs of the privately optimal path as well as the steady state may provide a higher social welfare than the respective tail of the socially optimal path. The result is formalized and an applied to the created framework of optimal phosphorus use.

Suomen maatalouden tuottamat kasvihuonekaasujen päästöt eri politiikkaskenaarioissa

Climate change is the single biggest environmental problem in the world at the moment. Although the effects are still not fully understood and there is considerable amount of uncertainty, many na-tions have decided to mitigate the change. On the societal level, a planner who tries to find an eco-nomically optimal solution to an environmental pollution problem seeks to reduce pollution from the sources where reductions are most cost-effective. This study aims to find out how effective the instruments of the agricultural policy are in the case of climate change mitigation in Finland. The theoretical base of this study is the neoclassical economic theory that is based on the assumption of a rational economic agent who maximizes his own utility. This theoretical base has been widened towards the direction clearly essential to the matter: the theory of environmental eco-nomics. Deeply relevant to this problem and central in the theory of environmental economics are the concepts of externalities and public goods. What are also relevant are the problems of global pollution and non-point-source pollution. Econometric modelling was the method that was applied to this study. The Finnish part of the AGMEMOD-model, covering the whole EU, was used for the estimation of the development of pollution. This model is a seemingly recursive, partially dynamic partial-equilibrium model that was constructed to predict the development of Finnish agricultural production of the most important products. For the study, I personally updated the model and also widened its scope in some relevant matters. Also, I devised a table that can calculate the emissions of greenhouse gases according to the rules set by the IPCC. With the model I investigated five alternative scenarios in comparison to the base-line scenario of Agenda 2000 agricultural policy. The alternative scenarios were: 1) the CAP reform of 2003, 2) free trade on agricultural commodities, 3) technological change, 4) banning the cultivation of organic soils and 5) the combination of the last three scenarios as the maximal achievement in reduction. The maximal achievement in the alternative scenario 5 was 1/3 of the level achieved on the base-line scenario. CAP reform caused only a minor reduction when com-pared to the base-line scenario. Instead, the free trade scenario and the scenario of technological change alone caused a significant reduction. The biggest single reduction was achieved by banning the cultivation of organic land. However, this was also the most questionable scenario to be real-ized, the reasons for this are further elaborated in the paper. The maximal reduction that can be achieved in the Finnish agricultural sector is about 11 % of the emission reduction that is needed to comply with the Kyoto protocol.

Integration of natural hazards, risk and climate change into spatial planning practices

Most countries of Europe, as well as many countries in other parts of the world, are experiencing an increased impact of natural hazards. It is often speculated, but not yet proven, that climate change might influence the frequency and magnitude of certain hydro-meteorological natural hazards. What has certainly been observed is a sharp increase in financial losses caused by natural hazards worldwide. Eventhough Europe appears to be a space that is not affected by natural hazards to such catastrophic extents as other parts of the world are, the damages experienced here are certainly increasing too. Natural hazards, climate change and, in particular, risks have therefore recently been put high on the political agenda of the EU. In the search for appropriate instruments for mitigating impacts of natural hazards and climate change, as well as risks, the integration of these factors into spatial planning practices is constantly receiving higher attention. The focus of most approaches lies on single hazards and climate change mitigation strategies. The current paradigm shift of climate change mitigation to adaptation is used as a basis to draw conclusions and recommendations on what concepts could be further incorporated into spatial planning practices. Especially multi-hazard approaches are discussed as an important approach that should be developed further. One focal point is the definition and applicability of the terms natural hazard, vulnerability and risk in spatial planning practices. Especially vulnerability and risk concepts are so many-fold and complicated that their application in spatial planning has to be analysed most carefully. The PhD thesis is based on six published articles that describe the results of European research projects, which have elaborated strategies and tools for integrated communication and assessment practices on natural hazards and climate change impacts. The papers describe approaches on local, regional and European level, both from theoretical and practical perspectives. Based on these, passed, current and future potential spatial planning applications are reviewed and discussed. In conclusion it is recommended to shift from single hazard assessments to multi-hazard approaches, integrating potential climate change impacts. Vulnerability concepts should play a stronger role than present, and adaptation to natural hazards and climate change should be more emphasized in relation to mitigation. It is outlined that the integration of risk concepts in planning is rather complicated and would need very careful assessment to ensure applicability. Future spatial planning practices should also consider to be more interdisciplinary, i.e. to integrate as many stakeholders and experts as possible to ensure the sustainability of investments.

Gene flow from transgenic plant populations: models and applications for risk assessment

The future use of genetically modified (GM) plants in food, feed and biomass production requires a careful consideration of possible risks related to the unintended spread of trangenes into new habitats. This may occur via introgression of the transgene to conventional genotypes, due to cross-pollination, and via the invasion of GM plants to new habitats. Assessment of possible environmental impacts of GM plants requires estimation of the level of gene flow from a GM population. Furthermore, management measures for reducing gene flow from GM populations are needed in order to prevent possible unwanted effects of transgenes on ecosystems. This work develops modeling tools for estimating gene flow from GM plant populations in boreal environments and for investigating the mechanisms of the gene flow process. To describe spatial dimensions of the gene flow, dispersal models are developed for the local and regional scale spread of pollen grains and seeds, with special emphasis on wind dispersal. This study provides tools for describing cross-pollination between GM and conventional populations and for estimating the levels of transgenic contamination of the conventional crops. For perennial populations, a modeling framework describing the dynamics of plants and genotypes is developed, in order to estimate the gene flow process over a sequence of years. The dispersal of airborne pollen and seeds cannot be easily controlled, and small amounts of these particles are likely to disperse over long distances. Wind dispersal processes are highly stochastic due to variation in atmospheric conditions, so that there may be considerable variation between individual dispersal patterns. This, in turn, is reflected to the large amount of variation in annual levels of cross-pollination between GM and conventional populations. Even though land-use practices have effects on the average levels of cross-pollination between GM and conventional fields, the level of transgenic contamination of a conventional crop remains highly stochastic. The demographic effects of a transgene have impacts on the establishment of trangenic plants amongst conventional genotypes of the same species. If the transgene gives a plant a considerable fitness advantage in comparison to conventional genotypes, the spread of transgenes to conventional population can be strongly increased. In such cases, dominance of the transgene considerably increases gene flow from GM to conventional populations, due to the enhanced fitness of heterozygous hybrids. The fitness of GM plants in conventional populations can be reduced by linking the selectively favoured primary transgene to a disfavoured mitigation transgene. Recombination between these transgenes is a major risk related to this technique, especially because it tends to take place amongst the conventional genotypes and thus promotes the establishment of invasive transgenic plants in conventional populations.