Early-onset depressive disorders,related mental health disorders and substance use-A prospective : longitudinal study of Finnish twins born 1983-1987

Early-onset psychiatric illnesses effects scatter to academic achievements as well as functioning in familial and social environments. From a public health point of view, depressive disorders are the most significant mental health disorders that begin in adolescence. Using prospective and longitudinal design, this study aimed to increase the understanding of early-onset depressive disorders, related mental health disorders and developing substance use in a large population-derived sample of adolescent Finnish twins. The participants of this study, FinnTwin12, an ongoing longitudinal population-based study, came from Finnish families with twins born in 1983-87 (exhaustive of five birth cohorts, identified from Finland s Central Population Register). With follow-up ongoing at age 20-24, this thesis assessed adolescent mental health in the first three waves, starting from baseline age 11-12 to follow-ups at age 14 and 17½. Some 5600 twins participated in questionnaire assessments of a wide range of health related behaviors. Mental health was further assessed among an intensively studied subsample of 1852 adolescents, who completed also professionally administered interviews at age 14, which provided data for full DSM-IV/III-R (Diagnostic and Statistical Manual for Mental Health disorders, 4th and 3rd editions) diagnoses. The participation rates of the study were 87-92%. The results of the study suggest, that the diagnostic criteria for major depressive disorder (MDD) may not capture youth with clinically significant early-onset depressive conditions outside clinical settings. Milder cases of depression, namely adolescents fulfilling the diagnostic criteria for minor depressive disorder, a qualitatively similar condition to MDD with fewer symptoms are also associated with marked suicidal thoughts, plans and attempts, recurrences and a high degree of comorbidity. Prospectively and longitudinally, early-onset depressive disorders were of substantial importance in the context of other mental health disorders and substance use behaviors: These data from a large population-derived sample established a substantial overlap between early-onset depressive disorders and attention deficit hyperactivity disorder in adolescent females, both of them significantly predictive for development of substance use among girls. Only in females baseline DSM-IV ADHD symptoms were strong predictors of alcohol abuse and dependence and illicit drug use at age 14 and frequent alcohol use and illicit drug use at age 17.½ when conduct disorder and previous substance use were controlled for. Early-onset depressive disorders were also prospectively and longitudinally associated to daily smoking behavior, smokeless tobacco use, frequent alcohol use and illicit drug use and eating disorders. Analysis of discordant twins suggested that these predictive associations were independent of familial confounds, such as family income, structure and parental models. In sum, early-onset depressive disorders predict subsequent involvement of substance use and psychiatric morbidity. A heightened risk for substance use is substantial also among those depressed below categorical diagnosis of MDD. Whether early recognition and interventions among these young people hold potential for substance use prevention further in their lives has potential public health significance and calls for more research. Data from this population-derived sample with balanced representation of boys and girls, suggested that boys and girls with ADHD behaviors may differ from each other in their vulnerability to substance use and depressive disorders: the data suggest more adverse substance use outcome for girls that was not attenuated by conduct disorder or previous substance use. Further, the prospective associations of early-onset depressive disorders and future elevated levels of addictive substance use is not explained by familial factors supporting future substance use, which could have important implications for substance use prevention.

The social patterning of health, smoking and drinking in Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Finland in 1994-2004

The Baltic countries share public health problems typical of most Eastern European transition economies: morbidity and mortality from non-communicable diseases is higher than in Western European countries. This situation has many similarities compared to a neighbouring country, Finland during the late 1960s. There are reasons to expect that health disadvantage may be increasing among the less advantaged population groups in the Baltic countries. The evidence on social differences in health in the Baltic countries is, however, scattered to studies using different methodologies making comparisons difficult. This study aims to bridge the evidence gap by providing comparable standardized cross-sectional and time trend analyses to the social patterning of variation in health and two key health behaviours i.e. smoking and drinking in Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Finland in 1994-2004 representing Eastern European transition countries and a stable Western European country. The data consisted of similar cross-sectional postal surveys conducted in 1994, 1996, 1998, 2000, 2002 and 2004 on adult populations (aged 20 64 years) in Estonia (n=9049), Latvia (n=7685), Lithuania (n=11634) and Finland (n=18821) in connection with the Finbalt Health Monitor project. The main statistical method was logistic regression analysis. Perceived health was found to be worse among both men and women in the Baltic countries than in Finland. Poor health was associated with older age and lower education in all countries studied. Urbanization and marital status were not consistently related to health. The existing educational inequalities in health remained generally stable over time from 1994 to 2004. In the Baltic countries, however, improvement in perceived health was mainly found among the better educated men and women. Daily smoking was associated with young age, lower education and psychological distress in all countries. Among women smoking was also associated with urbanisation in all countries except Estonia. Among Lithuanian women, the educational gradient in smoking was weakest, and the overall prevalence of smoking increased over time. Drinking was generally associated with young age among men and women, and with education among women. Better educated women were more often frequent drinkers and less educated binge drinkers. The exception was that in Latvian men and women both frequent drinking and binge drinking were associated with low education. In conclusion, the Baltic countries are likely to resemble Western European countries rather than other transition societies. While health inequalities did not markedly change, substantial inequalities do remain, and there were indications of favourable developments mainly among the better educated. Pressures towards increasing health inequalities may therefore be visible in the future, which would be in accordance with the results on smoking and drinking in this study.

Reconstructions of past climates from documentary and natural sources in Finland since the 18th century

In this paper both documentary and natural proxy data have been used to improve the accuracy of palaeoclimatic knowledge in Finland since the 18th century. Early meteorological observations from Turku (1748-1800) were analyzed first as a potential source of climate variability. The reliability of the calculated mean temperatures was evaluated by comparing them with those of contemporary temperature records from Stockholm, St. Petersburg and Uppsala. The resulting monthly, seasonal and yearly mean temperatures from 1748 to 1800 were compared with the present day mean values (1961-1990): the comparison suggests that the winters of the period 1749-1800 were 0.8 ºC colder than today, while the summers were 0.4 ºC warmer. Over the same period, springs were 0.9 ºC and autumns 0.1 ºC colder than today. Despite their uncertainties when compared with modern meteorological data, early temperature measurements offer direct and daily information about the weather for all months of the year, in contrast with other proxies. Secondly, early meteorological observations from Tornio (1737-1749) and Ylitornio (1792-1838) were used to study the temporal behaviour of the climate-tree growth relationship during the past three centuries in northern Finland. Analyses showed that the correlations between ring widths and mid-summer (July) temperatures did not vary significantly as a function of time. Early (June) and late summer (August) mean temperatures were secondary to mid-summer temperatures in controlling the radial growth. According the dataset used, there was no clear signature of temporally reduced sensitivity of Scots pine ring widths to mid-summer temperatures over the periods of early and modern meteorological observations. Thirdly, plant phenological data with tree-rings from south-west Finland since 1750 were examined as a palaeoclimate indicator. The information from the fragmentary, partly overlapping, partly nonsystematically biased plant phenological records of 14 different phenomena were combined into one continuous time series of phenological indices. The indices were found to be reliable indicators of the February to June temperature variations. In contrast, there was no correlation between the phenological indices and the precipitation data. Moreover, the correlations between the studied tree-rings and spring temperatures varied as a function of time and hence, their use in palaeoclimate reconstruction is questionable. The use of present tree-ring datasets for palaeoclimate purposes may become possible after the application of more sophisticated calibration methods. Climate variability since the 18th century is perhaps best seen in the fourth paper study of the multiproxy spring temperature reconstruction of south-west Finland. With the help of transfer functions, an attempt has been made to utilize both documentary and natural proxies. The reconstruction was verified with statistics showing a high degree of validity between the reconstructed and observed temperatures. According to the proxies and modern meteorological observations from Turku, springs have become warmer and have featured a warming trend since around the 1850s. Over the period of 1750 to around 1850, springs featured larger multidecadal low-frequency variability, as well as a smaller range of annual temperature variations. The coldest springtimes occurred around the 1840s and 1850s and the first decade of the 19th century. Particularly warm periods occurred in the 1760s, 1790s, 1820s, 1930s, 1970s and from 1987 onwards, although in this period cold springs occurred, such as the springs of 1994 and 1996. On the basis of the available material, long-term temperature changes have been related to changes in the atmospheric circulation, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (February-June).

Naiset ja naisten puheet kirkolliskokouksen naispappeuskeskusteluissa vuosina 1974-1987

Women and women s words in discussions about the ordination of women in the General Synod between 1974 and 1987. In 1986, the General Synod of the Evangelical Lutheran Church in Finland approved the ordination of women. Prior to that decision, a considerable amount of discussion and debate took place about this renewal in both the Synod and the general public. The different points of view had divided the church and the people, and had placed the church under pressure to resolve the issue as soon as possible. At the same time, the changing climate in people s attitudes toward the church and the changing position of women in society clearly weighed in on this matter. The research material consists of the speeches about the ordination of women given by the women representatives in the General Synod of the Evangelical Lutheran Church in Finland between the years 1974 and 1987. The aim is to determine why these representatives wanted to ordain women as pastors, what kind of women pastors they wanted to have in the congregations, and what they wanted to change in the church through this renewal. The basic methods of the analysis include discourse analysis as well as the new rhetorics and some concepts used by Pierre Bourdieu. A framework, which I named rhetoric patterning, was developed to interpret the results. This framework has facilitated the identification of three effective discourses in the studied argumentation: the folk church discourse, the pastor image discourse and the church image discourse. According to the opinions of the women representatives, the concept of change turned out to be a very decisive factor as the church sought a way to reach its members. To maintain a good and modern image seemed very important for the church to be able to perform its task in the modern era. The women representatives presented the situation of the church in terms of contextual theology and took seriously the membership of all those baptized into the church. They were therefore ready to take into account the opinion of all church members. The problem was that even though the ordination of women was established, the fixed mental schemes of the people and the strong power structures of the church remained untouched. Women were allowed into a new area of church life, but with certain publicly pronounced and unconsciously recognized conditions. Did this change really mean greater equality between women and men, as was intended? Key words: ordination of women, General Synod, contextualization, discourse analysis.

Concordia-lehti Lutherin ja luterilaisen ortodoksian teologian tulkitsijana 1994-2003

Concordia-lehti alkaessaan ilmestyä 1994 herätti ristiriitaisia reaktioita esimerkiksi SLEY:n henkilöstön keskuudessa. Alusta alkaen avainhenkilöitä ovat olleet Hannu Lehtonen, Hannu Halonen, Simo Kiviranta ja Sakari Korpinen. Ekumeniaan Concordia on suhtautunut kriittisesti arvioidessaan Porvoon sopimusta ja Yhteistä julistusta vanhurskauttamisesta. Keskeisiä teemoja tässä lehdessä ovat olleet tutkittavana aikana yleinen ja uskon kautta tapahtuva vanhurskauttaminen, Raamatun arvovallan korostaminen, sakramenttien merkityksen esillä pitäminen ja tietyt moraaliset ja eettiset periaatteet ja näkökulmat. Concordiassa on esiintynyt runsaasti sitaatteja Martti Lutherin teoksista, melko paljon myös luterilaisen ortodoksian edustajilta, kuten Martin Chemnitziltä ja Johann Gerhardilta. Ylivoimaisesti eniten artikkeleja kymmenen vuoden aikana on tehnyt päätoimittaja, pastori Hannu Lehtonen. Kirjoittajien joukossa maallikkojen osuus on ollut huomattava. Karismaattisia ilmiöitä arvioitaessa nähtiin osan armolahjoista kuuluneen ennen kaikkea alkukirkon aikaan, vaikka samalla todettiin ihmeitä voivan tapahtua nykyaikanakin. Concordian kirjoittajat eivät hyväksyneet läheskään kaikkia Suomen evankelis-luterilaisessa kirkossa tapahtuneita päätöksiä, asioita ja ilmiöitä. Voimakkaasti todettiin, että kirkossa ei tulisi samanaikaisesti sallia sekä totuutta että erilaisia harhaoppeja. Myös evankelisen liikkeen tai muiden herätysliikkeiden toimintaa ei aina pidetty tarpeeksi rohkeana, vaan katsottiin niiden mukautuneen liikaa yhteiskuntaan ja yleiseen ja valtaa pitävään kirkollisuuteen. Esimerkiksi Helsingin yliopistossa käytettyä historiallis-kriittistä metodia parempana metodina pidettiin historiallis-dogmaattista. Opetusta maailman syntymisestä pitkän evoluutio-prosessin seurauksena ei Concordiassa hyväksytty, vaan opetettiin Jumalan luoneen maailman kuudessa päivässä. Concordiassa kirjoittajina on esiintynyt myös useita tunnustuksellisen luterilaisuuden edustajia lähinnä Yhdysvalloista ja Pohjoismaista. Tutkitun lehden merkitys kirkollisessa kentässä ei ole tilaajamäärän pienuuden vuoksi kovin merkittävä, mutta eräänlaisena taustalla vaikuttajana ja keskustelun herättäjänä vaikutus on ollut suurempi. Concordian näkemyksen mukaan suuri enemmistö ei läheskään aina ole ollut oikeassa hengellisissä kysymyksissä. Evankeliseen liikkeeseen Concordian kirjoittajilla on ollut tietynlainen viha-rakkaussuhde, vaikka se on ollut monen kirjoittajan hengellinen koti. Lehdessä esiintynyttä pietismin arviointia tutkimus ei ole kovin paljon käsitellyt, koska se ei olisi kovin hyvin sopinut eri lukujen otsi- koiden alle. Helluntailaisuuden eri opinkäsityksiä Concordia on myös pyrkinyt kumoamaan. Lehti on halunnut koko ajan perustella opetuksensa selkeillä raamatunkohdilla ja edistää näin luterilaisen uskon ja opin tuntemusta. Tässä tutkimuksessa on ollut tietoinen valinta käyttää samoja raamatunkohtia lähteenä, joita Concordian kirjoittajat ovat itse käyttäneet. Kirkkohistoriaan kuuluvassa opinnäytteessä ei ole yleensä tyypillistä käyttää näin paljon viittauksia Raamattuun, mutta tällainen dogmatiikan mukaan ottaminen on perusteltua, koska se on niin olennainen osa Concordia-lehden teologiaa ja tapaa tuoda esille asioita. Tiivistetysti todeten ihmisten ainoa vapahtaja ja pelastaja on ollut tutkitun lehden mukaan ja on edelleen Jeesus Kristus.

Större frihet - bättre lokalt anpassad service? : Förvaltningsreformer och kommunernas service för utvecklingsstörda 1994-2000

In the beginning of the 1990s the legislation regarding the municipalities and the system of central government transfers were reformed in Finland. This resulted in a move from detailed governmental control to increased municipal autonomy. The purpose of this decentralization was to enable the municipalities to better adapt their administration and service supply to local needs. The aim of this study was to explore the effects of the increased municipal autonomy on the organization of services for people with intellectual disabilities. Did the increased autonomy cause the municipalities to alter their service supply and production and did the services become more adapted to local needs? The data consists of statistical information on service use and production, and also of background data such as demographics, economics and political elections on 452 municipalities in Finland from the years 1994 and 2000. The methods used are cluster analysis, discriminant analysis and factor analysis. The municipalities could be grouped in two categories: those which offered mainly one kind of residential services and others which had more varied mixes of services. The use of institutional care had decreased and municipalities which used institutional care as their primary form of service were mostly very small municipalities in 2000. The situation had changed from 1994, when institutional care was the primary service for municipalities of all sizes. Also the service production had become more differentiated and the municipalities had started using more varied ways of production. More municipalities had started producing their own services and private production had increased as well. Furthermore, the increase in local autonomy had opened up possibilities for local politics to influence both the service selection and methods of production. The most significant motive for changes in the service structure was high unemployment and an increasing share of elderly people in the population, particularly in sparsely populated areas. Municipalities with a low level of resources had made more changes in their service organization while those with more resources had been able to carry on as before. Key words: service structure, service for people with intellectual disabilities, municipalities, contingency theory, New Public Management

Uuden median murros Alma Mediassa, Sanoma Oy:ssä ja Yleisradiossa 1994-2004

This is a qualitative and multimethodological comparative study, which consists of two main parts: examining the development of new media and analysing and comparing the new media strategies of the three companies studied (Alma Media, Sanoma and the Finnish Broadcasting Company Yleisradio). The study includes the first large-scale review in Finnish of the development of new media, paying attention to the birth of the Internet as well as to mobile media, web TV and any other element of new media. It also concentrates on the function of electronic distribution channels before the age of the Internet, e.g. cable text and videotext. Answers about how the three traditional Finnish media houses began spreading their content to the Internet and wireless applications in 1994–2004 are also given. In researching the new media strategies the study pays special attention to the attitudes that the three media companies adopted towards the Internet and other forms of new media in their strategies during the years in question. By analysing and comparing, e.g., the companies’ strategies and their investments, the study ascertains whether the companies had a joint functional model in adopting new media or acted totally on their own without taking too much notice of the media field overall. The study makes extensive use of previously published material. The researcher has also interviewed almost twenty people who were involved in getting the companies’ new media functions under way. The methods for the interviews were dialogue and snowball sampling. The researcher has created a classification in which he divides the business strategies into four different categories: active strategy, careful strategy, permissive strategy, and passive strategy. In comparing and analysing the companies the researcher has used the classification devised by Allan Afuah & Christopher L. Tucci. The seven element classification consists of dominant managerial logic, competency trap, fear of cannibalisation and loss of revenue, channel conflict, political power, co-opetitor power and emotional attachment. In analysing the company strategies the researcher has also noted the classifications of convergence made by Everette E. Dennis and Graham Murdock as well as the aspects formulated by Sylvia Chan-Olmsted and Louisa Ha concerning the success of the companies in adopting the Internet into their functions. Based on all these classifications and by further developing them the researcher analyses and compares the success of the new media strategies of the three Finnish companies. The outcome of the study is a conclusion as to what kind of strategies the companies have carried out their new media functions and how they have succeeded in it.

¿Feminismo indígena? : Un análisis crítico del discurso sobre los textos de la mujer en el movimiento zapatista 1994-2009

This work analyses texts on indigenous women´s participation in the Mexican Zapatista Army, Ejército Zapatista de Liberación Nacional. The EZLN came to public attention after ten years of clandestine organization in 1994 in Chiapas, a southern state of Mexico neighboring Guatemala. Along the invasion of various municipalities in Chiapas, the Zapatista Army published their own Revolutionary Laws, directed to the Mexican government that included a section on women´s own laws. The indigenous women´s participation in a guerrilla movement in the economically poorest area of Mexico raised many questions among Mexican feminists and some of them fiercely criticized the laws for not being liberating or feminist at all. The question is, did the indigenous women want the laws to be feminist? To answer the main research question How is the position of women constructed in the Zapatista discourse? I analyze texts by various actors in the discourse within the theoretical framework of critical discourse analysis and the feminist theories of intersectionality. The connecting point in this interdisciplinary framework is the question of power and hegemony. The actors in the discourse are the women commanders themselves, the men commanders, the Zapatista spokesperson, subcomandante Marcos and the Mexican feminists. The texts analyzed are the letters of the EZLN to the media and discourses in public reunions, first published in Mexican newspapers and international discussion lists on the Internet and after 2005, on the Zapatista´s own webpage. The results show that instead of discussing whether the Zapatista women´s participation is feminist or not, the action itself provoked such wide discussion of the diversity within the feminist movement that it is a contribution itself. The work also shows that the use of language can be one tool in the quite recent paradigm of intersectionality in feminist theories.

Vastakkainasettelusta takaisin neuvottelupöytiin - presidentti Ronald Reaganin neuvostosuhteet 1981-1987

Tutkielmassa tutkitaan Yhdysvaltain presidentti Ronald Reaganin (1911-2004) Neuvostoliittoa koskevaa retoriikkaa hänen käyttämissään julkisissa virallisissa puheissa. Tutkimuskohde on valittu siksi, että Reaganin kahden virkakauden välillä tapahtui merkittävä linjanmuutos juuri neuvostosuhteissa ja tämän tutkimuksen tarkoituksena on pyrkiä selittämään retoriikan merkitystä todellisuuteen. Ajanjakso on rajattu periodille 1981-1987, koska juuri tällä periodilla ratkaiseva retoriikan ja turvallisuuspoliittisen linjan muutos suhteessa Neuvostoliittoon tapahtui. Vedenjakajana on vuosi 1985 Reaganin toisen kauden alkaessa ja Mihail Gorbatšovin tullessa valtaan Neuvostoliitossa. Johdon vaihtuminen Neuvostoliitossa ajatellaan usein olevan ratkaiseva tekijä Yhdysvaltain ja Reaganin asenteiden muuttumiselle. Tutkimuksen avulla pyritään avaamaan diplomatian kulisseja, mitä todellisuudessa milloinkin tapahtui ja missä mentiin kilpavarustelun ja aseriisuntaneuvottelujen samanaikaisten ristiriitaisten vuorovaikutusten akanvirroissa. Aiemmassa tutkimuksessa on taustoitettu erityisesti aseriisuntaneuvottelujen historiaa myös Reaganin kolmen edeltäjän ajalta 1969-1981 periodilta sekä kuvattu Reaganin presidenttikauden pääkysymykset Neuvostoliiton suhteen. Aiemmassa tutkimuksessa on esitetty, että Reagan palasi neuvostopolitiikassaan käytännössä liennytyksen linjalle, merkittävänä retorisena erona kuitenkin, ettei tätä termiä virallisesti koskaan käytetty Reaganin aikana. Toisaalta Reagania on pidetty omalaatuisena ja hieman pinnallisena, kuitenkin retorisesti maan historian yhtenä taitavimmista presidenteistä. Reagan jatkoi pitkälti edeltäjänsä Jimmy Carterin jo käynnistämiä asevarusteluhankkeita mutta hän pyrki saamaan uuden alun neuvotteluilmapiiriin omalla täysin edeltäjistään poikkeavalla kovennetulla retoriikallaan. Varsinkin kautensa alkupuolella Reagan joutui hyvin haastavasti retorisesti todistelemaan haluaan rauhaan samalla kun hänen piti perustella uudet mittavat asevarusteluhankkeet omalle kansalleen. Erityisesti kiistanalainen SDI-avaruuspuolustushanke oli presidentin oma aloite, jota oli vaikeinta perustella riittävän uskottavasti kotimaassa ja varsinkin ulkomailla. Tutkielman tutkimusote on kvalitatiivinen ja induktiivinen. Metodina toimii retorinen analyysi. Retorisen pakottamisen mallia käyttämällä on tarkoituksena jäsentää retoriikan ja turvallisuuspolitiikan välistä yhteyttä sekä näin samalla paikantaa puheiden ja todellisuuden välistä kokonaisuutta. Tutkimuksen avulla pyritään tunnistamaan muutoksia retoriikan menetelmissä puheiden sisällä ja etsimään näiden muutosten syy-seuraussuhteita samanaikaisesti tapahtuneisiin kilpavarustelu –ja aseriisuntaprosesseihin. Lähtöoletuksena on että Reaganin kaudella tapahtunut kolmas johtajanvaihdos, Gorbatšovin valtaantulo oli merkittävä tekijä sekä Reaganin retoriikan että politiikan muuttumisessa. Tutkimus nojautuu pitkälti primaariaineistoon presidentti Reaganin virallisten puheiden toimiessa tärkeimpänä lähdemateriaalina. Merkittävin tutkimustulos on, että vuoden 1985 johtajavaihdos Neuvostoliitossa oli merkittävä tekijä Reaganin konkreettisessa suunnan muutoksessa Neuvostoliittoon nähden, mutta retoriikan tasolla tämä muutos ei ollut yhtä selvä. Hänen puheissaan oli vaihtelevia sävyjä sekä ennen että jälkeen Gorbatšovin valtaantulon. Reaganin sävy puheissa pehmeni jonkin verran, mutta kovistelevia sanoja 1985 jälkeenkin oli silti välillä kohtalaisen paljon ja toisaalta jo aiempien neuvostojohtajien aikana hän puhui välillä sovinnollisempaan sävyyn. Muutos retoriikan suhteen on ollut näin ollen varovaisempaa ja vaikeammin kohdistettavissa yhden tietyn tapahtuman seurauksena. Aseriisuntaneuvotteluissa sen sijaan mentiin selvästi eteenpäin johtajien 1985-1986 tapaamisten siivittämänä. Reagan oli retorisen pakottamisen mallin soveltamisessa pääsääntöisesti aloitteellinen osapuoli, joka halusi vaikuttaa merkittävästi muutoksiin erityisesti Neuvostoliiton sisällä.

Vastakkainasettelusta takaisin neuvottelupöytiin - presidentti Ronald Reaganin neuvostosuhteet 1981-1987

Tutkielmassa tutkitaan Yhdysvaltain presidentti Ronald Reaganin (1911-2004) Neuvostoliittoa koskevaa retoriikkaa hänen käyttämissään julkisissa virallisissa puheissa. Tutkimuskohde on valittu siksi, että Reaganin kahden virkakauden välillä tapahtui merkittävä linjanmuutos juuri neuvostosuhteissa ja tämän tutkimuksen tarkoituksena on pyrkiä selittämään retoriikan merkitystä todellisuuteen. Ajanjakso on rajattu periodille 1981-1987, koska juuri tällä periodilla ratkaiseva retoriikan ja turvallisuuspoliittisen linjan muutos suhteessa Neuvostoliittoon tapahtui. Vedenjakajana on vuosi 1985 Reaganin toisen kauden alkaessa ja Mihail Gorbatšovin tullessa valtaan Neuvostoliitossa. Johdon vaihtuminen Neuvostoliitossa ajatellaan usein olevan ratkaiseva tekijä Yhdysvaltain ja Reaganin asenteiden muuttumiselle. Tutkimuksen avulla pyritään avaamaan diplomatian kulisseja, mitä todellisuudessa milloinkin tapahtui ja missä mentiin kilpavarustelun ja aseriisuntaneuvottelujen samanaikaisten ristiriitaisten vuorovaikutusten akanvirroissa. Aiemmassa tutkimuksessa on taustoitettu erityisesti aseriisuntaneuvottelujen historiaa myös Reaganin kolmen edeltäjän ajalta 1969-1981 periodilta sekä kuvattu Reaganin presidenttikauden pääkysymykset Neuvostoliiton suhteen. Aiemmassa tutkimuksessa on esitetty, että Reagan palasi neuvostopolitiikassaan käytännössä liennytyksen linjalle, merkittävänä retorisena erona kuitenkin, ettei tätä termiä virallisesti koskaan käytetty Reaganin aikana. Toisaalta Reagania on pidetty omalaatuisena ja hieman pinnallisena, kuitenkin retorisesti maan historian yhtenä taitavimmista presidenteistä. Reagan jatkoi pitkälti edeltäjänsä Jimmy Carterin jo käynnistämiä asevarusteluhankkeita mutta hän pyrki saamaan uuden alun neuvotteluilmapiiriin omalla täysin edeltäjistään poikkeavalla kovennetulla retoriikallaan. Varsinkin kautensa alkupuolella Reagan joutui hyvin haastavasti retorisesti todistelemaan haluaan rauhaan samalla kun hänen piti perustella uudet mittavat asevarusteluhankkeet omalle kansalleen. Erityisesti kiistanalainen SDI-avaruuspuolustushanke oli presidentin oma aloite, jota oli vaikeinta perustella riittävän uskottavasti kotimaassa ja varsinkin ulkomailla. Tutkielman tutkimusote on kvalitatiivinen ja induktiivinen. Metodina toimii retorinen analyysi. Retorisen pakottamisen mallia käyttämällä on tarkoituksena jäsentää retoriikan ja turvallisuuspolitiikan välistä yhteyttä sekä näin samalla paikantaa puheiden ja todellisuuden välistä kokonaisuutta. Tutkimuksen avulla pyritään tunnistamaan muutoksia retoriikan menetelmissä puheiden sisällä ja etsimään näiden muutosten syy-seuraussuhteita samanaikaisesti tapahtuneisiin kilpavarustelu –ja aseriisuntaprosesseihin. Lähtöoletuksena on että Reaganin kaudella tapahtunut kolmas johtajanvaihdos, Gorbatšovin valtaantulo oli merkittävä tekijä sekä Reaganin retoriikan että politiikan muuttumisessa. Tutkimus nojautuu pitkälti primaariaineistoon presidentti Reaganin virallisten puheiden toimiessa tärkeimpänä lähdemateriaalina. Merkittävin tutkimustulos on, että vuoden 1985 johtajavaihdos Neuvostoliitossa oli merkittävä tekijä Reaganin konkreettisessa suunnan muutoksessa Neuvostoliittoon nähden, mutta retoriikan tasolla tämä muutos ei ollut yhtä selvä. Hänen puheissaan oli vaihtelevia sävyjä sekä ennen että jälkeen Gorbatšovin valtaantulon. Reaganin sävy puheissa pehmeni jonkin verran, mutta kovistelevia sanoja 1985 jälkeenkin oli silti välillä kohtalaisen paljon ja toisaalta jo aiempien neuvostojohtajien aikana hän puhui välillä sovinnollisempaan sävyyn. Muutos retoriikan suhteen on ollut näin ollen varovaisempaa ja vaikeammin kohdistettavissa yhden tietyn tapahtuman seurauksena. Aseriisuntaneuvotteluissa sen sijaan mentiin selvästi eteenpäin johtajien 1985-1986 tapaamisten siivittämänä. Reagan oli retorisen pakottamisen mallin soveltamisessa pääsääntöisesti aloitteellinen osapuoli, joka halusi vaikuttaa merkittävästi muutoksiin erityisesti Neuvostoliiton sisällä.