Agricultural expansion and climate change in the Taita Hills, Kenya: an assessment of potential environmental impacts

The indigenous cloud forests in the Taita Hills have suffered substantial degradation for several centuries due to agricultural expansion. Currently, only 1% of the original forested area remains preserved in this region. Furthermore, climate change imposes an imminent threat for local economy and environmental sustainability. In such circumstances, elaborating tools to conciliate socioeconomic growth and natural resources conservation is an enormous challenge. This dissertation tackles essential aspects for understanding the ongoing agricultural activities in the Taita Hills and their potential environmental consequences in the future. Initially, alternative methods were designed to improve our understanding of the ongoing agricultural activities. Namely, methods for agricultural survey planning and to estimate evapotranspiration were evaluated, taking into account a number of limitations regarding data and resources availability. Next, this dissertation evaluates how upcoming agricultural expansion, together with climate change, will affect the natural resources in the Taita Hills up to the year 2030. The driving forces of agricultural expansion in the region were identified as aiming to delineate future landscape scenarios and evaluate potential impacts from the soil and water conservation point of view. In order to investigate these issues and answer the research questions, this dissertation combined state of the art modelling tools with renowned statistical methods. The results indicate that, if current trends persist, agricultural areas will occupy roughly 60% of the study area by 2030. Although the simulated land use changes will certainly increase soil erosion figures, new croplands are likely to come up predominantly in the lowlands, which comprise areas with lower soil erosion potential. By 2030, rainfall erosivity is likely to increase during April and November due to climate change. Finally, this thesis addressed the potential impacts of agricultural expansion and climate changes on Irrigation Water Requirements (IWR), which is considered another major issue in the context of the relations between land use and climate. Although the simulations indicate that climate change will likely increase annual volumes of rainfall during the following decades, IWR will continue to increase due to agricultural expansion. By 2030, new cropland areas may cause an increase of approximately 40% in the annual volume of water necessary for irrigation.

Climate change and agriculture: theory and application of mitigation policies

Agriculture’s contribution to climate change is controversial as it is a significant source of greenhouse gases but also a sink of carbon. Hence its economic and technological potential to mitigate climate change have been argued to be noteworthy. However, social profitability of emission mitigation is a result from factors among emission reductions such as surface water quality impact or profit from production. Consequently, to value comprehensive results of agricultural climate emission mitigation practices, these co-effects to environment and economics should be taken into account. The objective of this thesis was to develop an integrated economic and ecological model to analyse the social welfare of crop cultivation in Finland on distinctive cultivation technologies, conventional tillage and conservation tillage (no-till). Further, we ask whether it would be privately or socially profitable to allocate some of barley cultivation for alternative land use, such as green set-aside or afforestation, when production costs, GHG’s and water quality impacts are taken into account. In the theoretical framework we depict the optimal input use and land allocation choices in terms of environmental impacts and profit from production and derive the optimal tax and payment policies for climate and water quality friendly land allocation. The empirical application of the model uses Finnish data about production cost and profit structure and environmental impacts. According to our results, given emission mitigation practices are not self-evidently beneficial for farmers or society. On the contrary, in some cases alternative land allocation could even reduce social welfare, profiting conventional crop cultivation. This is the case regarding mineral soils such as clay and silt soils. On organic agricultural soils, climate mitigation practices, in this case afforestation and green fallow give more promising results, decreasing climate emissions and nutrient runoff to water systems. No-till technology does not seem to profit climate mitigation although it does decrease other environmental impacts. Nevertheless, the data behind climate emission mitigation practices impact to production and climate is limited and partly contradictory. More specific experiment studies on interaction of emission mitigation practices and environment would be needed. Further study would be important. Particularly area specific production and environmental factors and also food security and safety and socio-economic impacts should be taken into account.

From environmental concerns towards sustainable food provisioning. : Material flow and food consumption scenario studies on sustainability of agri-food systems

Agriculture is an economic activity that heavily relies on the availability of natural resources. Through its role in food production agriculture is a major factor affecting public welfare and health, and its indirect contribution to gross domestic product and employment is significant. Agriculture also contributes to numerous ecosystem services through management of rural areas. However, the environmental impact of agriculture is considerable and reaches far beyond the agroecosystems. The questions related to farming for food production are, thus, manifold and of great public concern. Improving environmental performance of agriculture and sustainability of food production, sustainabilizing food production, calls for application of wide range of expertise knowledge. This study falls within the field of agro-ecology, with interphases to food systems and sustainability research and exploits the methods typical of industrial ecology. The research in these fields extends from multidisciplinary to interdisciplinary and transdisciplinary, a holistic approach being the key tenet. The methods of industrial ecology have been applied extensively to explore the interaction between human economic activity and resource use. Specifically, the material flow approach (MFA) has established its position through application of systematic environmental and economic accounting statistics. However, very few studies have applied MFA specifically to agriculture. The MFA approach was used in this thesis in such a context in Finland. The focus of this study is the ecological sustainability of primary production. The aim was to explore the possibilities of assessing ecological sustainability of agriculture by using two different approaches. In the first approach the MFA-methods from industrial ecology were applied to agriculture, whereas the other is based on the food consumption scenarios. The two approaches were used in order to capture some of the impacts of dietary changes and of changes in production mode on the environment. The methods were applied at levels ranging from national to sector and local levels. Through the supply-demand approach, the viewpoint changed between that of food production to that of food consumption. The main data sources were official statistics complemented with published research results and expertise appraisals. MFA approach was used to define the system boundaries, to quantify the material flows and to construct eco-efficiency indicators for agriculture. The results were further elaborated for an input-output model that was used to analyse the food flux in Finland and to determine its relationship to the economy-wide physical and monetary flows. The methods based on food consumption scenarios were applied at regional and local level for assessing feasibility and environmental impacts of relocalising food production. The approach was also used for quantification and source allocation of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of primary production. GHG assessment provided, thus, a means of crosschecking the results obtained by using the two different approaches. MFA data as such or expressed as eco-efficiency indicators, are useful in describing the overall development. However, the data are not sufficiently detailed for identifying the hot spots of environmental sustainability. Eco-efficiency indicators should not be bluntly used in environmental assessment: the carrying capacity of the nature, the potential exhaustion of non-renewable natural resources and the possible rebound effect need also to be accounted for when striving towards improved eco-efficiency. The input-output model is suitable for nationwide economy analyses and it shows the distribution of monetary and material flows among the various sectors. Environmental impact can be captured only at a very general level in terms of total material requirement, gaseous emissions, energy consumption and agricultural land use. Improving environmental performance of food production requires more detailed and more local information. The approach based on food consumption scenarios can be applied at regional or local scales. Based on various diet options the method accounts for the feasibility of re-localising food production and environmental impacts of such re-localisation in terms of nutrient balances, gaseous emissions, agricultural energy consumption, agricultural land use and diversity of crop cultivation. The approach is applicable anywhere, but the calculation parameters need to be adjusted so as to comply with the specific circumstances. The food consumption scenario approach, thus, pays attention to the variability of production circumstances, and may provide some environmental information that is locally relevant. The approaches based on the input-output model and on food consumption scenarios represent small steps towards more holistic systemic thinking. However, neither one alone nor the two together provide sufficient information for sustainabilizing food production. Environmental performance of food production should be assessed together with the other criteria of sustainable food provisioning. This requires evaluation and integration of research results from many different disciplines in the context of a specified geographic area. Foodshed area that comprises both the rural hinterlands of food production and the population centres of food consumption is suggested to represent a suitable areal extent for such research. Finding a balance between the various aspects of sustainability is a matter of optimal trade-off. The balance cannot be universally determined, but the assessment methods and the actual measures depend on what the bottlenecks of sustainability are in the area concerned. These have to be agreed upon among the actors of the area

Social dynamics for sustainable food systems : Actors' orientations towards sustainability in primary production and public consumption

The modern food system and sustainable development form a conceptual combination that suggests sustainability deficits in environmental impacts and nutritional status of western populations. This study explores actors orientations towards sustainability by probing into social dynamics for sustainability within primary production and public consumption. If actors within these two worlds were to express converging orientations for sustainability, the system dynamics of the market would enable more sustainable growth in terms of production dictated by consumption. The study is based on a constructivist research approach with qualitative text analyses. The findings were validated by internal and external food system actors and are suggested to represent current social dynamics within Finnish food system. The key findings included primary producers social skilfulness, which enabled networking with other actors in very different paths of life, learning in order to promote one s trade, and trusting reflectively in partners in order to expand business. These activities extended the supply chain in a spiral fashion by horizontal and vertical forward integration, until large retailers were met for negotiations on a more equal basis. This mode of chain level coordination, typically building around the core of social and partnership relations, was coined as a socially overlaid network, and seen as sustainable coordination mode for endogenous growth. The caterers exhibited more or less committed professional identity for sustainability within their reach. The facilitating approaches for professional identities dealt successfully with local and organic food in addition to domestic food, and also imported food. The co-operation with supply chains created innovative solutions and savings for the business parties to be shared. There were also more complicated identities as juggling, critical and delimited approaches for sustainability, with less productive efforts due to restrictions such as absence of organisational sustainability strategy, weak presence of local and organic suppliers, limited understanding about sustainability and no organisational resources for informed choices for sustainability. The convergence between producers and caterers existed to an extent allowing suggestion that increased clarity about sustainable consumption and production by actors could be constructed using advanced tools. The study looks for introduction of more profound environmental and socio-economic knowledge through participatory research with supply chain actors. Learning in the workplace about food system reality in terms of supply chain co-operation may prove to be a change engine that leads to advanced network operations and a more sustainable food system.

Social dynamics for sustainable food systems. Actors’ orientations towards sustainability in primary production and public consumption

Abstract The modern food system and sustainable development form a conceptual combination that suggests sustainability deficits in the ways we deal with food consumption and production - in terms of economic relations, environmental impacts and nutritional status of western population. This study explores actors’ orientations towards sustainability by taking into account actors’ embedded positions within structures of the food system, actors’ economic relations and views about sustainability as well as their possibilities for progressive activities. The study looks particularly at social dynamics for sustainability within primary production and public consumption. If actors within these two worlds were to express converging orientations for sustainability, the system dynamics of the market would enable more sustainable growth in terms of production dictated by consumption. The study is based on a constructivist research approach with qualitative text analyses. The data consisted of three text corpora, the ‘local food corpus’, the ‘catering corpus’ and the ‘mixed corpus’. The local food actors were interviewed about their economic exchange relations. The caterers’ interviews dealt with their professional identity for sustainability. Finally, the mixed corpus assembled a dialogue as a participatory research approach, which was applied in order to enable researcher and caterer learning about the use of organic milk in public catering. The data were analysed for theoretically conceptualised relations, expressing behavioural patterns in actors’ everyday work as interpreted by the researcher. The findings were corroborated by the internal and external communities of food system actors. The interpretations have some validity, although they only present abstractions of everyday life and its rich, even opaque, fabric of meanings and aims. The key findings included primary producers’ social skilfulness, which enabled networking with other actors in very different paths of life, learning in order to promote one’s trade, and trusting reflectively in partners in order to extend business. These activities expanded the supply chain in a spiral fashion by horizontal and vertical forward integration, until large retailers were met for negotiations on a more equal or ‘other regarding’ basis. This kind of chain level coordination, typically building around the core of social and partnership relations, was coined as a socially overlaid network. It supported market access of local farmers, rooted in their farms, who were able to draw on local capital and labour in promotion of competitive business; the growth was endogenous. These kinds of chains – one conventional and one organic – were different from the strategic chain, which was more profit based and while highly competitive, presented exogenous growth as it depended on imported capital and local employees. However, the strategic chain offered learning opportunities and support for the local economy. The caterers exhibited more or less committed professional identity for sustainability within their reach. The facilitating and balanced approaches for professional identities dealt successfully with local and organic food in addition to domestic food, and also imported food. The co-operation with supply chains created innovative solutions and savings for the business parties to be shared. The rule-abiding approach for sustainability only made choices among organic supply chains without extending into co-operation with actors. There were also more complicated and troubled identities as juggling, critical and delimited approaches for sustainability, with less productive efforts due to restrictions such as absence of organisational sustainability strategy, weak presence of local and organic suppliers, limited understanding about sustainability and no organisational resources to develop changes towards a sustainable food system. Learning in the workplace about food system reality in terms of supply chain co-operation may prove to be a change engine that leads to advanced network operations and a more sustainable food system. The convergence between primary producers and caterers existed to an extent allowing suggestion that increased clarity about sustainable consumption and production by actors could be approached using advanced tools. The study looks for introduction of more profound environmental and socio-economic knowledge through participatory research with supply chain actors in order to promote more sustainable food systems. Summary of original publications and the authors’ contribution I Mikkola, M. & Seppänen, L. 2006. Farmers’ new participation in food chains: making horizontal and vertical progress by networking. In: Langeveld, H. & Röling N. (Eds.). Changing European farming systems for a better future. New visions for rural areas. Wageningen, The Netherlands. Wageningen Academic Publishers: 267–271. II Mikkola, M. 2008. Coordinative structures and development of food supply chains. British Food Journal 110 (2): 189–205. III Mikkola, M. 2009. Shaping professional identity for sustainability. Evidence in Finnish public catering. Appetite 53 (1): 56–65. IV Mikkola, M. 2009. Catering for sustainability: building a dialogue on organic milk. Agronomy Research 7 (Special issue 2): 668–676. Minna Mikkola has been responsible for developing the generic research frame, particular research questions, the planning and collection of the data, their qualitative analysis and writing the articles I, II, III and IV. Dr Laura Seppänen has contributed to the development of the generic research frame and article I by introducing the author to the basic concepts of economic sociology and by supporting the writing of article II with her critical comments. Articles are printed with permission from the publishers.

Local systems, global impacts : Using life cycle assessment to analyse the potential and constraints of industrial symbioses

Human activities extract and displace different substances and materials from the earth s crust, thus causing various environmental problems, such as climate change, acidification and eutrophication. As problems have become more complicated, more holistic measures that consider the origins and sources of pollutants have been called for. Industrial ecology is a field of science that forms a comprehensive framework for studying the interactions between the modern technological society and the environment. Industrial ecology considers humans and their technologies to be part of the natural environment, not separate from it. Industrial operations form natural systems that must also function as such within the constraints set by the biosphere. Industrial symbiosis (IS) is a central concept of industrial ecology. Industrial symbiosis studies look at the physical flows of materials and energy in local industrial systems. In an ideal IS, waste material and energy are exchanged by the actors of the system, thereby reducing the consumption of virgin material and energy inputs and the generation of waste and emissions. Companies are seen as part of the chains of suppliers and consumers that resemble those of natural ecosystems. The aim of this study was to analyse the environmental performance of an industrial symbiosis based on pulp and paper production, taking into account life cycle impacts as well. Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) is a tool for quantitatively and systematically evaluating the environmental aspects of a product, technology or service throughout its whole life cycle. Moreover, the Natural Step Sustainability Principles formed a conceptual framework for assessing the environmental performance of the case study symbiosis (Paper I). The environmental performance of the case study symbiosis was compared to four counterfactual reference scenarios in which the actors of the symbiosis operated on their own. The research methods used were process-based life cycle assessment (LCA) (Papers II and III) and hybrid LCA, which combines both process and input-output LCA (Paper IV). The results showed that the environmental impacts caused by the extraction and processing of the materials and the energy used by the symbiosis were considerable. If only the direct emissions and resource use of the symbiosis had been considered, less than half of the total environmental impacts of the system would have been taken into account. When the results were compared with the counterfactual reference scenarios, the net environmental impacts of the symbiosis were smaller than those of the reference scenarios. The reduction in environmental impacts was mainly due to changes in the way energy was produced. However, the results are sensitive to the way the reference scenarios are defined. LCA is a useful tool for assessing the overall environmental performance of industrial symbioses. It is recommended that in addition to the direct effects, the upstream impacts should be taken into account as well when assessing the environmental performance of industrial symbioses. Industrial symbiosis should be seen as part of the process of improving the environmental performance of a system. In some cases, it may be more efficient, from an environmental point of view, to focus on supply chain management instead.  

Precipitation-induced runoff and leaching from milled peat mining mires by peat types : a comparative method for estimating the loading of water bodies during peat pruduction

Precipitation-induced runoff and leaching from milled peat mining mires by peat types: a comparative method for estimating the loading of water bodies during peat production. This research project in environmental geology has arisen out of an observed need to be able to predict more accurately the loading of watercourses with detrimental organic substances and nutrients from already existing and planned peat production areas, since the authorities capacity for insisting on such predictions covering the whole duration of peat production in connection with evaluations of environmental impact is at present highly limited. National and international decisions regarding monitoring of the condition of watercourses and their improvement and restoration require more sophisticated evaluation methods in order to be able to forecast watercourse loading and its environmental impacts at the stage of land-use planning and preparations for peat production.The present project thus set out from the premise that it would be possible on the basis of existing mire and peat data properties to construct estimates for the typical loading from production mires over the whole duration of their exploitation. Finland has some 10 million hectares of peatland, accounting for almost a third of its total area. Macroclimatic conditions have varied in the course of the Holocene growth and development of this peatland, and with them the habitats of the peat-forming plants. Temperatures and moisture conditions have played a significant role in determining the dominant species of mire plants growing there at any particular time, the resulting mire types and the accumulation and deposition of plant remains to form the peat. The above climatic, environmental and mire development factors, together with ditching, have contributed, and continue to contribute, to the existence of peat horizons that differ in their physical and chemical properties, leading to differences in material transport between peatlands in a natural state and mires that have been ditched or prepared for forestry and peat production. Watercourse loading from the ditching of mires or their use for peat production can have detrimental effects on river and lake environments and their recreational use, especially where oxygen-consuming organic solids and soluble organic substances and nutrients are concerned. It has not previously been possible, however, to estimate in advance the watercourse loading likely to arise from ditching and peat production on the basis of the characteristics of the peat in a mire, although earlier observations have indicated that watercourse loading from peat production can vary greatly and it has been suggested that differences in peat properties may be of significance in this. Sprinkling is used here in combination with simulations of conditions in a milled peat production area to determine the influence of the physical and chemical properties of milled peats in production mires on surface runoff into the drainage ditches and the concentrations of material in the runoff water. Sprinkling and extraction experiments were carried out on 25 samples of milled Carex (C) and Sphagnum (S) peat of humification grades H 2.5 8.5 with moisture content in the range 23.4 89% on commencement of the first sprinkling, which was followed by a second sprinkling 24 hours later. The water retention capacity of the peat was best, and surface runoff lowest, with Sphagnum and Carex peat samples of humification grades H 2.5 6 in the moisture content class 56 75%. On account of the hydrophobicity of dry peat, runoff increased in a fairly regular manner with drying of the sample from 55% to 24 30%. Runoff from the samples with an original moisture content over 55% increased by 63% in the second round of sprinkling relative to the first, as they had practically reached saturation point on the first occasion, while those with an original moisture content below 55% retained their high runoff in the second round, due to continued hydrophobicity. The well-humified samples (H 6.5 8.5) with a moisture content over 80% showed a low water retention capacity and high runoff in both rounds of sprinkling. Loading of the runoff water with suspended solids, total phosphorus and total nitrogen, and also the chemical oxygen demand (CODMn O2), varied greatly in the sprinkling experiment, depending on the peat type and degree of humification, but concentrations of the same substances in the two sprinklings were closely or moderately closely correlated and these correlations were significant. The concentrations of suspended solids in the runoff water observed in the simulations of a peat production area and the direct surface runoff from it into the drainage ditch system in response to rain (sprinkling intensity 1.27 mm/min) varied c. 60-fold between the degrees of humification in the case of the Carex peats and c. 150-fold for the Sphagnum peats, while chemical oxygen demand varied c. 30-fold and c. 50-fold, respectively, total phosphorus c. 60-fold and c. 66-fold, total nitrogen c. 65-fold and c. 195-fold and ammonium nitrogen c. 90-fold and c. 30-fold. The increases in concentrations in the runoff water were very closely correlated with increases in humification of the peat. The correlations of the concentrations measured in extraction experiments (48 h) with peat type and degree of humification corresponded to those observed in the sprinkler experiments. The resulting figures for the surface runoff from a peat production area into the drainage ditches simulated by means of sprinkling and material concentrations in the runoff water were combined with statistics on the mean extent of daily rainfall (0 67 mm) during the frost-free period of the year (May October) over an observation period of 30 years to yield typical annual loading figures (kg/ha) for suspended solids (SS), chemical oxygen demand of organic matter (CODmn O2), total phosphorus (tot. P) and total nitrogen (tot. N) entering the ditches with respect to milled Carex (C) and Sphagnum (S) peats of humification grades H 2.5 8.5. In order to calculate the loading of drainage ditches from a milled peat production mire with the aid of these annual comparative values (in kg/ha), information is required on the properties of the intended production mire and its peat. Once data are available on the area of the mire, its peat depth, peat types and their degrees of humification, dry matter content, calorific value and corresponding energy content, it is possible to produce mutually comparable estimates for individual mires with respect to the annual loading of the drainage ditch system and the surrounding watercourse for the whole service life of the production area, the duration of this service life, determinations of energy content and the amount of loading per unit of energy generated (kg/MWh). In the 8 mires in the Köyhäjoki basin, Central Ostrobothnia, taken as an example, the loading of suspended solids (SS) in the drainage ditch networks calculated on the basis of the typical values obtained here and existing mire and peat data and expressed per unit of energy generated varied between the mires and horizons in the range 0.9 16.5 kg/MWh. One of the aims of this work was to develop means of making better use of existing mire and peat data and the results of corings and other field investigations. In this respect combination of the typical loading values (kg/ha) obtained here for S, SC, CS and C peats and the various degrees of humification (H 2.5 8.5) with the above mire and peat data by means of a computer program for the acquisition and handling of such data would enable all the information currently available and that deposited in the system in the future to be used for defining watercourse loading estimates for mires and comparing them with the corresponding estimates of energy content. The intention behind this work has been to respond to the challenge facing the energy generation industry to find larger peat production areas that exert less loading on the environment and to that facing the environmental authorities to improve the means available for estimating watercourse loading from peat production and its environmental impacts in advance. The results conform well to the initial hypothesis and to the goals laid down for the research and should enable watercourse loading from existing and planned peat production to be evaluated better in the future and the resulting impacts to be taken into account when planning land use and energy generation. The advance loading information available in this way would be of value in the selection of individual peat production areas, the planning of their exploitation, the introduction of water protection measures and the planning of loading inspections, in order to achieve controlled peat production that pays due attention to environmental considerations.

Lake sediment research as a part of lake management - case studies and implications from southern Finland

In Finland one of the most important current issues in the environmental management is the quality of surface waters. The increasing social importance of lakes and water systems has generated wide-ranging interest in lake restoration and management, concerning especially lakes suffering from eutrophication, but also from other environmental impacts. Most of the factors deteriorating the water quality in Finnish lakes are connected to human activities. Especially since the 1940's, the intensified farming practices and conduction of sewage waters from scattered settlements, cottages and industry have affected the lakes, which simultaneously have developed in to recreational areas for a growing number of people. Therefore, this study was focused on small lakes, which are human impacted, located close to settlement areas and have a significant value for local population. The aim of this thesis was to obtain information from lake sediment records for on-going lake restoration activities and to prove that a well planned, properly focused lake sediment study is an essential part of the work related to evaluation, target consideration and restoration of Finnish lakes. Altogether 11 lakes were studied. The study of Lake Kaljasjärvi was related to the gradual eutrophication of the lake. In lakes Ormajärvi, Suolijärvi, Lehee, Pyhäjärvi and Iso-Roine the main focus was on sediment mapping, as well as on the long term changes of the sedimentation, which were compared to Lake Pääjärvi. In Lake Hormajärvi the role of different kind of sedimentation environments in the eutrophication development of the lake's two basins were compared. Lake Orijärvi has not been eutrophied, but the ore exploitation and related acid main drainage from the catchment area have influenced the lake drastically and the changes caused by metal load were investigated. The twin lakes Etujärvi and Takajärvi are slightly eutrophied, but also suffer problems associated with the erosion of the substantial peat accumulations covering the fringe areas of the lakes. These peat accumulations are related to Holocene water level changes, which were investigated. The methods used were chosen case-specifically for each lake. In general, acoustic soundings of the lakes, detailed description of the nature of the sediment and determinations of the physical properties of the sediment, such as water content, loss on ignition and magnetic susceptibility were used, as was grain size analysis. A wide set of chemical analyses was also used. Diatom and chrysophycean cyst analyses were applied, and the diatom inferred total phosphorus content was reconstructed. The results of these studies prove, that the ideal lake sediment study, as a part of a lake management project, should be two-phased. In the first phase, thoroughgoing mapping of sedimentation patterns should be carried out by soundings and adequate corings. The actual sampling, based on the preliminary results, must include at least one long core from the main sedimentation basin for the determining the natural background state of the lake. The recent, artificially impacted development of the lake can then be determined by short-core and surface sediment studies. The sampling must be focused on the basis of the sediment mapping again, and it should represent all different sedimentation environments and bottom dynamic zones, considering the inlets and outlets, as well as the effects of possible point loaders of the lake. In practice, the budget of the lake management projects of is usually limited and only the most essential work and analyses can be carried out. The set of chemical and biological analyses and dating methods must therefore been thoroughly considered and adapted to the specific management problem. The results show also, that information obtained from a properly performed sediment study enhances the planning of the restoration, makes possible to define the target of the remediation activities and improves the cost-efficiency of the project.

Gene flow from transgenic plant populations: models and applications for risk assessment

The future use of genetically modified (GM) plants in food, feed and biomass production requires a careful consideration of possible risks related to the unintended spread of trangenes into new habitats. This may occur via introgression of the transgene to conventional genotypes, due to cross-pollination, and via the invasion of GM plants to new habitats. Assessment of possible environmental impacts of GM plants requires estimation of the level of gene flow from a GM population. Furthermore, management measures for reducing gene flow from GM populations are needed in order to prevent possible unwanted effects of transgenes on ecosystems. This work develops modeling tools for estimating gene flow from GM plant populations in boreal environments and for investigating the mechanisms of the gene flow process. To describe spatial dimensions of the gene flow, dispersal models are developed for the local and regional scale spread of pollen grains and seeds, with special emphasis on wind dispersal. This study provides tools for describing cross-pollination between GM and conventional populations and for estimating the levels of transgenic contamination of the conventional crops. For perennial populations, a modeling framework describing the dynamics of plants and genotypes is developed, in order to estimate the gene flow process over a sequence of years. The dispersal of airborne pollen and seeds cannot be easily controlled, and small amounts of these particles are likely to disperse over long distances. Wind dispersal processes are highly stochastic due to variation in atmospheric conditions, so that there may be considerable variation between individual dispersal patterns. This, in turn, is reflected to the large amount of variation in annual levels of cross-pollination between GM and conventional populations. Even though land-use practices have effects on the average levels of cross-pollination between GM and conventional fields, the level of transgenic contamination of a conventional crop remains highly stochastic. The demographic effects of a transgene have impacts on the establishment of trangenic plants amongst conventional genotypes of the same species. If the transgene gives a plant a considerable fitness advantage in comparison to conventional genotypes, the spread of transgenes to conventional population can be strongly increased. In such cases, dominance of the transgene considerably increases gene flow from GM to conventional populations, due to the enhanced fitness of heterozygous hybrids. The fitness of GM plants in conventional populations can be reduced by linking the selectively favoured primary transgene to a disfavoured mitigation transgene. Recombination between these transgenes is a major risk related to this technique, especially because it tends to take place amongst the conventional genotypes and thus promotes the establishment of invasive transgenic plants in conventional populations.

Analyzing changes in macro-level drivers of country-specific emissions : The role of consumption, technology and trade

Industrial ecology is an important field of sustainability science. It can be applied to study environmental problems in a policy relevant manner. Industrial ecology uses ecosystem analogy; it aims at closing the loop of materials and substances and at the same time reducing resource consumption and environmental emissions. Emissions from human activities are related to human interference in material cycles. Carbon (C), nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) are essential elements for all living organisms, but in excess have negative environmental impacts, such as climate change (CO2, CH4 N2O), acidification (NOx) and eutrophication (N, P). Several indirect macro-level drivers affect emissions change. Population and affluence (GDP/capita) often act as upward drivers for emissions. Technology, as emissions per service used, and consumption, as economic intensity of use, may act as drivers resulting in a reduction in emissions. In addition, the development of country-specific emissions is affected by international trade. The aim of this study was to analyse changes in emissions as affected by macro-level drivers in different European case studies. ImPACT decomposition analysis (IPAT identity) was applied as a method in papers I III. The macro-level perspective was applied to evaluate CO2 emission reduction targets (paper II) and the sharing of greenhouse gas emission reduction targets (paper IV) in the European Union (EU27) up to the year 2020. Data for the study were mainly gathered from official statistics. In all cases, the results were discussed from an environmental policy perspective. The development of nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions was analysed in the Finnish energy sector during a long time period, 1950 2003 (paper I). Finnish emissions of NOx began to decrease in the 1980s as the progress in technology in terms of NOx/energy curbed the impact of the growth in affluence and population. Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions related to energy use during 1993 2004 (paper II) were analysed by country and region within the European Union. Considering energy-based CO2 emissions in the European Union, dematerialization and decarbonisation did occur, but not sufficiently to offset population growth and the rapidly increasing affluence during 1993 2004. The development of nitrogen and phosphorus load from aquaculture in relation to salmonid consumption in Finland during 1980 2007 was examined, including international trade in the analysis (paper III). A regional environmental issue, eutrophication of the Baltic Sea, and a marginal, yet locally important source of nutrients was used as a case. Nutrient emissions from Finnish aquaculture decreased from the 1990s onwards: although population, affluence and salmonid consumption steadily increased, aquaculture technology improved and the relative share of imported salmonids increased. According to the sustainability challenge in industrial ecology, the environmental impact of the growing population size and affluence should be compensated by improvements in technology (emissions/service used) and with dematerialisation. In the studied cases, the emission intensity of energy production could be lowered for NOx by cleaning the exhaust gases. Reorganization of the structure of energy production as well as technological innovations will be essential in lowering the emissions of both CO2 and NOx. Regarding the intensity of energy use, making the combustion of fuels more efficient and reducing energy use are essential. In reducing nutrient emissions from Finnish aquaculture to the Baltic Sea (paper III) through technology, limits of biological and physical properties of cultured fish, among others, will eventually be faced. Regarding consumption, salmonids are preferred to many other protein sources. Regarding trade, increasing the proportion of imports will outsource the impacts. Besides improving technology and dematerialization, other viewpoints may also be needed. Reducing the total amount of nutrients cycling in energy systems and eventually contributing to NOx emissions needs to be emphasized. Considering aquaculture emissions, nutrient cycles can be partly closed through using local fish as feed replacing imported feed. In particular, the reduction of CO2 emissions in the future is a very challenging task when considering the necessary rates of dematerialisation and decarbonisation (paper II). Climate change mitigation may have to focus on other greenhouse gases than CO2 and on the potential role of biomass as a carbon sink, among others. The global population is growing and scaling up the environmental impact. Population issues and growing affluence must be considered when discussing emission reductions. Climate policy has only very recently had an influence on emissions, and strong actions are now called for climate change mitigation. Environmental policies in general must cover all the regions related to production and impacts in order to avoid outsourcing of emissions and leakage effects. The macro-level drivers affecting changes in emissions can be identified with the ImPACT framework. Statistics for generally known macro-indicators are currently relatively well available for different countries, and the method is transparent. In the papers included in this study, a similar method was successfully applied in different types of case studies. Using transparent macro-level figures and a simple top-down approach are also appropriate in evaluating and setting international emission reduction targets, as demonstrated in papers II and IV. The projected rates of population and affluence growth are especially worth consideration in setting targets. However, sensitivities in calculations must be carefully acknowledged. In the basic form of the ImPACT model, the economic intensity of consumption and emission intensity of use are included. In seeking to examine consumption but also international trade in more detail, imports were included in paper III. This example demonstrates well how outsourcing of production influences domestic emissions. Country-specific production-based emissions have often been used in similar decomposition analyses. Nevertheless, trade-related issues must not be ignored.

Luotettavaa tietoa ja merkityksellisiä valintoja – Kuluttajien ympäristövastuullista järkeilyä ilmastonmuutoksesta ja ohjausjärjestelmien hyväksyttävyydestä

Tutkielmassa tarkastellaan kuluttajien näkemyksiä ilmastonmuutoksesta ja ilmastovaikutusten seuranta- ja palautejärjestelmän hyväksyttävyydestä kulutuksen ohjauskeinona. 15 kuluttajaa kokeili kuukauden ajan kulutuksen ilmastovaikutusten seuranta- ja palautejärjestelmän demonstraatioversiota ja he osallistuivat kokeilun pohjalta aihepiiriä käsitelleeseen verkkokeskusteluun. Analysoin verkkokeskustelun aineistoa arkisen järkeilyn näkökulmasta tutkien kuluttajien ilmastonmuutokseen ja ympäristövastuullisuuteen liittyvää arkitietoa sekä palvelun hyväksyttävyyteen liittyviä heuristiikkoja. Ilmastonmuutoksen todettiin yleisesti olevan vielä melko abstrakti ja monitulkintainen ilmiö, minkä vuoksi kuluttajilla on vaikeuksia ymmärtää omien valintojensa konkreettista merkitystä ilmastonmuutoksen kannalta. Vaikka tietoa kulutuksen ilmastovaikutuksista on saatavilla paljon, niin erityisesti yritysten tuottama tieto koettiin ristiriitaiseksi ja osin epäluotettavaksi. Kuluttajat myös kritisoivat ilmastonmuutoskeskustelun tarjoamaa kapeaa näkemystä kulutuksen ympäristövaikutuksista. Hiilidioksidipäästöihin keskittymisen sijaan ympäristövaikutuksia tulisi kuluttajien mielestä tarkastella kokonaisuutena, josta ilmastovaikutukset muodostavat vain yhden osan. Tutkimukseen osallistuneiden kuluttajien kulutustottumuksiin ilmastonmuutos vaikutti eriasteisesti. Toisille ilmastonmuutoksesta oli muodostunut keskeinen omaa kulutusta ohjaava normi, kun taas toiset kertoivat pohtivansa ilmastovaikutuksia pääasiassa suurimpien hankintojen kohdalla. Ympäristövastuullisuudessa merkitykselliseksi koettiin tasapainon löytäminen ja henkilökohtainen tunne siitä, että kokee toimivansa oikein. Ilmasto- tai ympäristökysymyksiä punnitaan valinnoissa joustavasti yhdessä muiden tekijöiden kanssa. Vaikka kuluttajilla toisaalta olisi tietoa ja halua ottaa ilmasto- ja ympäristövaikutukset huomioon valinnoissaan, toimintaympäristö rajaa keskeisesti kuluttajien mahdollisuuksia toimia ympäristövastuullisesti. Tutkimus toi esille neljä kuluttajien käyttämää heuristiikkaa heidän pohtiessaan ilmastovaikutusten seuranta- ja palautejärjestelmän hyväksyttävyyden ehtoja ja toimivuutta ohjauskeinona. Ensinnäkin palvelun tulee olla käytettävyydeltään nopea ja vaivaton sekä tarjota tietoa havainnollisessa ja helposti ymmärrettävässä muodossa. Toiseksi palvelun tarjoaman tiedon tulee olla ehdottoman luotettavaa ja kuluttajien valintojen kannalta merkityksellistä siten, että palvelu ottaa huomioon erilaiset kuluttajat ja tiedontarpeet. Kolmanneksi palvelu tulee toteuttaa kokonaisvaltaisesti ja läpinäkyvästi useampien kaupparyhmittymien ja julkisten toimijoiden yhteistyönä. Neljänneksi toteutuksessa tulee huomioda palvelun kannustavuus ja kytkeytyminen muihin ohjauskeinoihin.

Evaluation of the profitability of fast-growing tropical trees.

The profitability of fast-growing trees was investigated in the northeastern and eastern provinces of Thailand. The financial, economic, and tentative environmental-economic profitability was determined separately for three fast-growing plantation tree species and for three categories of plantation managers: the private industry, the state (the Royal Forest Department) and the farmers. Fast-growing tree crops were also compared with teak (Tectona grandis), a traditional medium or long rotation species, and Para rubber (Hevea brasiliensis) which presently is the most common cultivated tree in Thailand. The optimal rotation for Eucalyptus camaldulensis pulpwood production was eight years. This was the most profitable species in pulpwood production. In sawlog production Acacia mangium and Melia azedarach showed a better financial profitability. Para rubber was more profitable and teak less profitable than the three fast-growing species. The economic profitability was higher than the financial one, and the tentative environmental-economic profitability was slightly higher than the economic profitability. The profitability of tree growing is sensitive to plantation yields and labour cost changes and especially to wood prices. Management options which aim at pulpwood production are more sensitive to input or output changes than those options which include sawlog production. There is an urgent need to improve the growth and yield data and to study the environmental impacts of tree plantations for all species and plantation types.

Use of wetland buffer areas to reduce nitrogen transport from forested catchments: Retention capacity, emissions of N2O and CH4 and vegetation composition dynamics

The use of buffer areas in forested catchments has been actively researched during the last 15 years; but until now, the research has mainly concentrated on the reduction of sediment and phosphorus loads, instead of nitrogen (N). The aim of this thesis was to examine the use of wetland buffer areas to reduce the nitrogen transport in forested catchments and to investigate the environmental impacts involved in their use. Besides the retention capacity, particular attention was paid to the main factors contributing to the N retention, the potential for increased N2O emissions after large N loading, the effects of peatland restoration for use as buffer areas on CH4 emissions, as well as the vegetation composition dynamics induced by the use of peatlands as buffer areas. To study the capacity of buffer areas to reduce N transport in forested catchments, we first used large artificial loadings of N, and then studied the capacity of buffer areas to reduce ammonium (NH4-N) export originating from ditch network maintenance areas in forested catchments. The potential for increased N2O emissions were studied using the closed chamber technique and a large artificial N loading at five buffer areas. Sampling for CH4 emissions and methane-cycling microbial populations were done on three restored buffer areas and on three buffers constructed on natural peatlands. Vegetation composition dynamics was studied at three buffer areas between 1996 and 2009. Wetland buffer areas were efficient in retaining inorganic N from inflow. The key factors contributing to the retention were the size and the length of the buffer, the hydrological loading and the rate of nutrient loading. Our results show that although the N2O emissions may increase temporarily to very high levels after a large N loading into the buffer area, the buffer areas in forested catchments should be viewed as insignificant sources of N2O. CH4 fluxes were substantially higher from buffers constructed on natural peatlands than from the restored buffer areas, probably because of the slow recovery of methanogens after restoration. The use of peatlands as buffer areas was followed by clear changes in plant species composition and the largest changes occurred in the upstream parts of the buffer areas and the wet lawn-level surfaces, where the contact between the vegetation and the through-flow waters was closer than for the downstream parts and dry hummock sites. The changes in the plant species composition may be an undesired phenomenon especially in the case of the mires representing endangered mire site types, and therefore the construction of new buffer areas should be primarily directed into drained peatland areas.