Actuarial report 2011: Social security schemes administered by Kela 2010-2060

Projections concerning the long-term outlook of the social security schemes administered by the Social Insurance Institution of Finland (Kela) are made regularly by the Institution’s Actuarial Section. The report at hand was compiled with the help of an aggregate model devised by the Actuarial Section. In the model, various universal factors influencing benefit trends are consolidated and the interactions between individual benefits are taken into account. The demographic forecasts underlying the report have also been made by the Actuarial Section. Estimates of income and administrative costs have been made in cooperation with the Financial Planning Section.

Betydelser i barnfamiljsbroschyrer : Systemisk-funktionell analys av den tänkta läsaren och institutionen

This thesis concerns Swedish and Finland-Swedish brochures to families with children, presenting family allowances from the social insurance institutions in the two countries. The aim of the study is to analyse what meanings are conveyed with reference to the conceivable reader and the institution in the brochures. The material consists of information brochures in Swedish from Kela, the social insurance institution of Finland, and Försäkringskassan, the Swedish social insurance agency, issued during 2003–2006. The general theoretical framework is systemic-functional linguistics (SFL) as presented by Halliday & Matthiessen (2004) and Holmberg & Karlsson (2006). The study consists of a quantitative study of the lexical choices of the social insurance brochures. Furthermore, a qualitative process and participant analysis is annotated with the UAM Corpus tool and the results are quantified. Speech functions and modal auxiliaries are analysed qualitatively. The analysis shows that material and relational processes are most common. The relational and verbal processes are used more in the Sweden-Swedish brochures, while the material processes are more common in the Finland-Swedish brochures. The participants in the brochures are the institution, mentioned by its name, and the conceivable reader, directly addressed with “you” (du). In addition, the referent “child” is often mentioned. The participants assigned for the reader are Actor, Receiver, Carrier and Speaker. In the Finland-Swedish texts, the reader is often an Actor, while the reader in the Sweden-Swedish texts is a Carrier. Thus, the conceivable reader is an active participant who takes care of his or her own matters using the internet, communicates actively to the institution and has legal rights and obligations. The institution is visible in the texts but does not have an active role as the name of the institution is mostly used in circumstances. The institution is not often a participant, but when it is, it is Actor, Receiver, Listener and Carrier, expecting the clients to address it. Speech functions are performed in different ways. For instance, questions structure the reading process and commands are realised by modal auxiliaries, not by imperatives. The most common modal auxiliary is kan (can, may), and another common auxiliary is ska (shall, must). Statements are surrounded by subordinate clauses and adverbs that describe situations and criteria. The results of the study suggest that the brochures in the two countries are similar, in particular when produced in similar ways, that is, when the Finland-Swedish texts are not translated. Existing differences reflect the differences in the institutions, the social insurance systems and the cultural contexts. KEYWORDS: Finland-Swedish, Swedish, comparative analysis, SFL, discourse analysis, administrative language, institutional discourse, institutional communication

Kehittävän kuntoutuksen mahdollisuudet. : Tutkimus Aslak -kuntoutuksen työkytkennän ja asiakkuuden rakentumisesta.

The possibilities of developmental rehabilitation. A study on the construction of work relatedness and the customer in Aslak rehabilitation The challenge of work-related rehabilitation is to anticipate the factors threatening work ability and to affect them. The purpose of this study was to analyze how work-related rehabilitation is constructed in practice and what are the challenges and, at the same time, the possibilities of an innovative transformation of rehabilitation when trying to achive this goal. The theoretical basis is cultural-historical activity theory and developmental work research. Based on a historical analysis, I studied rehabilitation activity empirically using the data gathered from one Aslak programme (Aslak = occupationally oriented medical rehabilitation) over two years. I described and analysed the construction of Aslak using ethnographic data and interviews. The data includes audio- and video-recordings of the Aslak course, fieldnotes, documents and other materials used in the course. The study aimed to reveal rehabilitation practices from different perspectives carried out by different stakeholders and participants in the Aslak course. It focused on the Aslak trajectory produced by a multiorganizational subject. I analyzed the rehabilitation activity using the method of ethnographic analysis of infrastructure. The method of analyzing the construction of the object of rehabilititation the customer was a membership categorization analysis (MCD) based on the ethnomethodological research tradition. I analyzed the meanings denoting customers given by different parties during one Aslak process and the relations between the meanings. Based on this analysis, I studied the disturbances, ruptures, and innovations in the rehabilitation activity. The results of the study show that the infrastructure of Aslak has different basic ideas. Aslak is constructed most explicitly on the infrastructure of medical rehabilitation. The second layer has been provided with some tools of identifying and preventing well-defined occupation-specific load factors. However, it has failed to perform a new structure, as Aslak has encountered, at the same time, rapid changes in working life. The study identified some promising markers representing new kinds of work-related rehabilitation ideas, but they proved to be incomplete and fragile. As a consequence of the multilayered infrastructure, the contents of the Aslak course were split into fragmented phases and disconnected themes, which were blocked in by the master idea of medical orientation. Its relationship to work remained weak and obscure. The categorizations of customers in Aslak were manifold and contradictory. According to the results, the possibilities for transforming work-related rehabilitation lie both in changing the orientation to the customer to be more relevant to changing working life and forging the infrastructural innovations related to this change. The results showed that a new work-relatedeness would be difficult but possible to construct. What is needed is the construction of an infrastructure that will support a coherent master idea of work-related rehabilitation over the entire trajectory of a process. A shared idea of a rehabilitation object must be constructed in close collaboration between different stakeholders, such as Kela (the Social Insurance Institution of Finland), occupational health services, work organizations, and rehabilitation institutes. Key words: Aslak rehabilitation, work-related rehabilitation, development of rehabilitation, customer of rehabilitation, developmental work research, analysis of infrastructure, membership category analysis

Occupational burnout and health

Occupational burnout and heath Occupational burnout is assumed to be a negative consequence of chronic work stress. In this study, it was explored in the framework of occupational health psychology, which focusses on psychologically mediated processes between work and health. The objectives were to examine the overlap between burnout and ill health in relation to mental disorders, musculoskeletal disorders, and cardiovascular diseases, which are the three commonest disease groups causing work disability in Finland; to study whether burnout can be distinguished from ill health by its relation to work characteristics and work disability; and to determine the socio-demographic correlates of burnout at the population level. A nationally representative sample of the Finnish working population aged 30 to 64 years (n = 3151-3424) from the multidisciplinary epidemiological Health 2000 Study was used. Burnout was measured with the Maslach Burnout Inventory - General Survey. The diagnoses of common mental disorders were based on the standardized mental health interview (the Composite International Diagnostic Interview), and physical illnesses were determined in a comprehensive clinical health examination by a research physician. Medically certified sickness absences exceeding 9 work days during a 2-year period were extracted from a register of The Social Insurance Institution of Finland. Work stress was operationalized according to the job strain model. Gender, age, education, occupational status, and marital status were recorded as socio-demographic factors. Occupational burnout was related to an increased prevalence of depressive and anxiety disorders and alcohol dependence among the men and women. Burnout was also related to musculoskeletal disorders among the women and cardiovascular diseases among the men independently of socio-demographic factors, physical strenuousness of work, health behaviour, and depressive symptoms. The odds of having at least one long, medically-certified sickness absence were higher for employees with burnout than for their colleagues without burnout. For severe burnout, this association was independent of co-occurring common mental disorders and physical illnesses for both genders, as was also the case for mild burnout among the women. In a subgroup of the men with absences, severe burnout was related to a greater number of absence days than among the women with absences. High job strain was associated with a higher occurrence of burnout and depressive disorders than low job strain was. Of these, the association between job strain and burnout was stronger, and it persisted after control for socio-demographic factors, health behaviour, physical illnesses, and various indicators of mental health. In contrast, job strain was not related to depressive disorders after burnout was accounted for. Among the working population over 30 years of age, burnout was positively associated with age. There was also a tendency towards higher levels of burnout among the women with low educational attainment and occupational status and among the unmarried men. In conclusion, a considerable overlap was found between burnout, mental disorders, and physical illnesses. Still, burnout did not seem to be totally redundant with respect to ill health. Burnout may be more strongly related to stressful work characteristics than depressive disorders are. In addition, burnout seems to be an independent risk factor for work disability, and it could possibly be used as a marker of health-impairing work stress. However, burnout may represent a different kind of risk factor for men and women, and this possibility needs to be taken into account in the promotion of occupational health.

Prevention of type 2 diabetes with lifestyle intervention - emphasis on dietary composition and identification of high-risk individuals

Type 2 diabetes is an increasing, serious, and costly public health problem. The increase in the prevalence of the disease can mainly be attributed to changing lifestyles leading to physical inactivity, overweight, and obesity. These lifestyle-related risk factors offer also a possibility for preventive interventions. Until recently, proper evidence regarding the prevention of type 2 diabetes has been virtually missing. To be cost-effective, intensive interventions to prevent type 2 diabetes should be directed to people at an increased risk of the disease. The aim of this series of studies was to investigate whether type 2 diabetes can be prevented by lifestyle intervention in high-risk individuals, and to develop a practical method to identify individuals who are at high risk of type 2 diabetes and would benefit from such an intervention. To study the effect of lifestyle intervention on diabetes risk, we recruited 522 volunteer, middle-aged (aged 40 - 64 at baseline), overweight (body mass index > 25 kg/m2) men (n = 172) and women (n = 350) with impaired glucose tolerance to the Diabetes Prevention Study (DPS). The participants were randomly allocated either to the intensive lifestyle intervention group or the control group. The control group received general dietary and exercise advice at baseline, and had annual physician's examination. The participants in the intervention group received, in addition, individualised dietary counselling by a nutritionist. They were also offered circuit-type resistance training sessions and were advised to increase overall physical activity. The intervention goals were to reduce body weight (5% or more reduction from baseline weight), limit dietary fat (< 30% of total energy consumed) and saturated fat (< 10% of total energy consumed), and to increase dietary fibre intake (15 g / 1000 kcal or more) and physical activity (≥ 30 minutes/day). Diabetes status was assessed annually by a repeated 75 g oral glucose tolerance testing. First analysis on end-points was completed after a mean follow-up of 3.2 years, and the intervention phase was terminated after a mean duration of 3.9 years. After that, the study participants continued to visit the study clinics for the annual examinations, for a mean of 3 years. The intervention group showed significantly greater improvement in each intervention goal. After 1 and 3 years, mean weight reductions were 4.5 and 3.5 kg in the intervention group and 1.0 kg and 0.9 kg in the control group. Cardiovascular risk factors improved more in the intervention group. After a mean follow-up of 3.2 years, the risk of diabetes was reduced by 58% in the intervention group compared with the control group. The reduction in the incidence of diabetes was directly associated with achieved lifestyle goals. Furthermore, those who consumed moderate-fat, high-fibre diet achieved the largest weight reduction and, even after adjustment for weight reduction, the lowest diabetes risk during the intervention period. After discontinuation of the counselling, the differences in lifestyle variables between the groups still remained favourable for the intervention group. During the post-intervention follow-up period of 3 years, the risk of diabetes was still 36% lower among the former intervention group participants, compared with the former control group participants. To develop a simple screening tool to identify individuals who are at high risk of type 2 diabetes, follow-up data of two population-based cohorts of 35-64 year old men and women was used. The National FINRISK Study 1987 cohort (model development data) included 4435 subjects, with 182 new drug-treated cases of diabetes identified during ten years, and the FINRISK Study 1992 cohort (model validation data) included 4615 subjects, with 67 new cases of drug-treated diabetes during five years, ascertained using the Social Insurance Institution's Drug register. Baseline age, body mass index, waist circumference, history of antihypertensive drug treatment and high blood glucose, physical activity and daily consumption of fruits, berries or vegetables were selected into the risk score as categorical variables. In the 1987 cohort the optimal cut-off point of the risk score identified 78% of those who got diabetes during the follow-up (= sensitivity of the test) and 77% of those who remained free of diabetes (= specificity of the test). In the 1992 cohort the risk score performed equally well. The final Finnish Diabetes Risk Score (FINDRISC) form includes, in addition to the predictors of the model, a question about family history of diabetes and the age category of over 64 years. When applied to the DPS population, the baseline FINDRISC value was associated with diabetes risk among the control group participants only, indicating that the intensive lifestyle intervention given to the intervention group participants abolished the diabetes risk associated with baseline risk factors. In conclusion, the intensive lifestyle intervention produced long-term beneficial changes in diet, physical activity, body weight, and cardiovascular risk factors, and reduced diabetes risk. Furthermore, the effects of the intervention were sustained after the intervention was discontinued. The FINDRISC proved to be a simple, fast, inexpensive, non-invasive, and reliable tool to identify individuals at high risk of type 2 diabetes. The use of FINDRISC to identify high-risk subjects, followed by lifestyle intervention, provides a feasible scheme in preventing type 2 diabetes, which could be implemented in the primary health care system.

Pitfalls in the Treatment of Persons with Dementia

Pitfalls in the treatment of persons with dementia Persons with dementia require high-quality health care, rehabilitation and sufficient social services to support their autonomy and to postpone permanent institutionalization. This study sought to investigate possible pitfalls in the care of patients with dementia: hip fracture rehabilitation, use of inappropriate or antipsychotic medication, social and medicolegal services offered to dementia caregiving families. Three different Finnish samples were used from years 1999-2005, mean age 78 to 86 years. After hip fracture operation, the weight-bearing restriction especially in group of patients with dementia, was associated with a longer rehabilitation period (73.5 days vs. 45.5 days, p=0.03) and the inability to learn to walk after six weeks (p<0.001). Almost half (44%) of the pre-surgery home-dwellers with dementia in our sample required permanent hospitalization after hip fracture. Potentially inappropriate medication was used among 36.2% of nursing home and hospital patients. The most common PIDs in Finland were temazepam over 15 mg/day, oxybutynin, and dipyridamole. However, PID use failed to predict mortality or the use of health services. Nearly half (48.4%) of the nursing home and hospital patients with dementia used antipsychotic medication. The two-year mortality did not differ among the users of conventional or atypical antipsychotics or the non-users (45.3% vs.32.1% vs.49.6%, p=0.195). The mean number of hospital admissions was highest among non-users (p=0.029). A high number of medications (HR 1.12, p<0.001) and the use of physical restraints (HR 1.72, p=0.034) predicted higher mortality at two years, while the use of atypical antipsychotics (HR 0.49, p=0.047) showed a protective effect, if any. The services most often offered to caregiving families of persons with Alzheimer s disease (AD) included financial support from the community (36%), technical devices (33%), physiotherapy (32%), and respite care in nursing homes (31%). Those services most often needed included physiotherapy for the spouse with dementia (56%), financial support (50%), house cleaning (41%), and home respite (40%). Only a third of the caregivers were satisfied with these services, and 69% felt unable to influence the range of services offered. The use of legal guardians was quite rare (only 4.3%), while the use of financial powers of attorney was 37.8%. Almost half (47.9%) of the couples expressed an unmet need for discussion with their doctor about medico-legal issues, while only 9.9% stated that their doctor had informed them of such matters. Although we already have many practical methods to develop the medical and social care of persons with AD, these patients and their families require better planning and tailoring of such services. In this way, society could offer these elderly persons better quality of life while economizing on its financial resources. This study was supported by Social Insurance Institution of Finland and part of it made in cooperation with the The Central Union of the Welfare for the Aged, Finland.

Late results after paediatric cardiac surgery

Background: Congenital heart defects include a wide range of inborn malformations. Depending on the defect, the life expectancy of a newborn with cardiac anomaly varies from a few days to a normal life span. In most instances surgery, is the only treatment available. The late results of surgery have not been comprehensively investigated. Aims: Mortality, morbidity and the life situation of all Finnish patients who had been operated on for congenital heart defect during childhood were investigated. Methods: Patient and surgical data were gathered from all hospitals that had performed heart surgeries on children. Late mortality and survival data were obtained from the population registry, and the causes of deaths from Statistics Finland. Morbidity of patients operated on during 1953-1989 was assessed by the usage of medicines. The pharmacotherapy data of patients and controls were obtained from the Social Insurance Institute. The life situation of patients was surveyed by mailed questionnaire. Survival, causes of deaths and life situation of patients were compared with those of the general population. Results: A total of 7240 cardiac operations were performed on 6461 children during the first 37 years of cardiac surgery (1953-1989). The number of procedures constantly rose during this period, and the increase continued in later years. The patient material varied over time, as more defects became surgically treatable. During 1953-1989 the operative mortality (death within 30 days of surgery) was 6.9%. In the 1990s a slight rise occurred in early mortality, as increasingly complicated patients were surgically treated. During 2000-2003 practically no defects were beyond the operative range. Thus, the operative mortality of 4.4% was excellent, decreasing even further to 2.0% in 2004-2007. The overall 45-year survival of patients operated on in 1953-1989 was 78%, and the corresponding figure for the general population was 93%. Survival depended on the defect, being worst among patients with univentricular heart. Late survival was also better during the 1990s and at the beginning of the 21st century. Of the 6028 early survivors, 592 died late (>30 days) after surgery. A total of 397 deaths (67%) were related and 185 (31%) unrelated to congenital heart defect. The cause of death was unknown in 10 cases. Of those 5774 patients who survived their first operation and had complete follow-up, 16% were operated on several times. Seventeen percent of patients used medicines for cardiac symptoms (heart failure, arrhythmia, hypertension and coronary disease). Patients risk of using cardiac medicines was 2.16 (Cl 1.97-2.37) times higher than that of controls. Patients also had more genetic syndromes and mental retardation and more often used medicines for asthma and epilepsy. Adult patients who had been operated on as children had coped surprisingly well with their defects. Their level of education was similar and their employment level even higher than expected, and they were living in a steady relationship as often as the general population. Conclusions: Cardiac surgery developed rapidly, and nowadays practically all defects can be treated. The overall survival of all operated patients was 78%, 16% less than that of the general population. However, it was significantly better than the anticipated natural survival. However, many patients had health problems; 16% needed reoperations and 17% cardiac medicines to maintain their condition. Most of the patients assessed their general health as good and lived a normal life.

Eläke- ja vammaisetuuksien, maahanmuuttajan erityistuen ja eläkkeensaajan asumistuen muutokset 1.1.2011

Kansaneläkeindeksi 1 508, elinkustannusindeksi 1 749 (pistelukujen keskiarvo heinäsyyskuulta 2010) Vuoden 2011 alusta kansaneläkkeisiin, perhe-eläkkeisiin, lapsikorotuksiin, rintamalisiin, vammaisetuuksiin (pl. ruokavaliokorvaukset) ja maahanmuuttajan erityistukiin tehtiin 0,4 prosentin indeksitarkistus. Eläke-etuusmenot kasvoivat 9,7 milj. euroa (0,4 %), vammaisetuusmenot 1,9 milj. euroa (0,4 %) ja maahanmuuttajan erityistukimenot 0,1 milj. euroa (0,3 %). Laskelmat perustuvat joulukuun 2010 etuuskantaan.

Kelan opintoetuustilasto 2009/10

Kelan opintoetuustilasto 2009/10 -julkaisu sisältää keskeiset tiedot Kelan maksamista opintotuista ja koulumatkatuista sekä Kelan myöntämästä aikuiskoulutustukeen liittyvästä opintolainan valtiontakauksesta. Julkaisu tarjoaa tilastoja näiden etuuksien saajista ja maksetuista euromääristä. Opintotuesta esitetään myös opintolainoja, korkeakouluopiskelijoiden ateriatukea ja opintolainavähennystä koskevia tietoja.

Health-related quality of life, symptoms and comorbidity in inflammatory bowel disease

Health-related quality of life (HRQoL) measurement has become an important outcome in treatment trials and in health policy decisions. HRQoL can be measured by using generic or disease-specific tools. Generic instruments can be used for comparing health status among patients in different health states and conditions but they do not focus specifically on the issues relevant in a particular disease. Disease-specific tools may be more responsive to changes within a specific condition. In earlier studies, impairment of HRQoL has been evident in patients with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD), especially when the disease is active. Data about the impact of comorbidity or demographic characteristics of the patients on HRQoL are partly controversial. This study, which comprised 2913 adult IBD patients, examined HRQoL using the disease-specific IBDQ and the general 15D instruments. The 15D scores of IBD patients were compared with scores of a gender and age matched general population sample. Frequency of IBD symptoms and arrangement of therapy were studied and compared with those of IBD patients in an earlier European study. Furthermore, data of other chronic diseases of the patients were obtained from the Social Insurance Institution s reimbursement register and comorbidity of IBD patients was compared with that of age and gender matched controls. --- Of the respondents, 37% reported that they suffered from disturbing IBD symptoms weekly. In 17% of the patients, the symptoms greatly affected the ability to enjoy leisure activities, and 14% stated that these symptoms greatly affected their capacity to work. Despite that, the great majority (93%) of patients expressed satisfaction with their current treatment, which exceeded the rate observed in the other European patients. The mean IBDQ score was 163, as the possible range is 32-224, and disease activity was strongly correlated with HRQoL. Older age, comorbid diseases, and female gender were also related to impairment of HRQoL. Lower HRQoL scores were seen also in newly-diagnosed patients and in those with a history of surgery, especially after stoma or ileal pouch-anal anastomosis (IPAA) operation. The range of 15D scores was 0.30-1.00, with mean of 0.87. As with the IBDQ, disease activity, older age and history of surgery were correlated with the score. Both the newly-diagnosed patients and patients with a long-lasting disease had lower scores than average even after adjusting for age. The 15D scores of IBD patients were significantly lower than those of the control group. A strong correlation was seen between the 15D and the IBDQ scores. Comorbidity with other chronic diseases was observed in 29% of IBD patients. Connective tissue diseases, chronic obstructive pulmonary diseases, pernicious anaemia, and coronary heart disease (CHD) were significantly increased in patients with IBD. Especially female IBD patients appeared to be at increased risk for CHD, and patients who reported weekly IBD symptoms had a higher risk for having other chronic diseases in addition to IBD. Comorbidity impaired HRQoL, as measured with both generic and disease-specific tools. In conclusion, HRQoL is impaired in IBD patients. An understanding of predictors of HRQoL will help to recognise patients who will need special support.

Asumistuensaajien vuokranylityksiin toimeentulotukea

Kela maksoi asumistukia 1 214,5 milj. euroa vuoden 2010 aikana. Kasvua edelliseen vuoteen oli 7 %. Taloustilanteen aiheuttaman työllisyyden huononemisen seurauksena asumistukien maksatus on kahtena peräkkäisenä vuotena kasvanut reilusti. Asumistukea saaneita perheitä tai ruokakuntia oli vuoden lopussa 498 000.

Aktiivitoimenpiteiden määrän kasvu lisäsi työttömyysturvan etuusmenoja vuonna 2010

Työnhakijoille maksettuja työttömyysturvaetuuksia maksettiin vuonna 2010 yhteensä 3,3 miljardia euroa. Työttömyyskassojen osuus tästä oli 2,3 miljardia euroa ja Kelan 1,0 miljardia euroa.

Kelalta lähes kolme miljardia euroa lapsiperheille

Kela maksoi viime vuonna lapsiperheille etuuksia yhteensä 2 917,5 mil joonaa euroa. Noin puolet summasta kohdistui lapsilisiin, joita maksettiin 1 433,1 miljoonaa euroa. Vanhempainpäivärahoja maksettiin 957,5 miljoonaa euroa, lakisääteisiä lastenhoidon tukia 352,6 miljoonaa euroa, äitiysavustusta ja adoptiotukea 11,1 miljoonaa euroa ja elatustukea 163,3 miljoonaa euroa.

Antioxidants, weight change and risk of type 2 diabetes

The incidence of type 2 diabetes has increased rapidly worldwide. Obesity is one of the most important modifiable risk factors of type 2 diabetes: weight gain increases and weight loss decreases the risk. However, the effects of weight fluctuation are unclear. Reactive oxygen species are presumably part of the complicated mechanism for the development of insulin resistance and beta-cell destruction in the pancreas. The association of antioxidants with the risk of incident type 2 diabetes has been studied in longitudinal prospective human studies, but so far there is no clear conclusion about protective effect of dietary or of supplementary antioxidants on diabetes risk. The present study examined 1) weight change and fluctuation as risk factors for incident type 2 diabetes; 2) the association of baseline serum alpha-tocopherol or beta-carotene concentration and dietary intake of antioxidants with the risk of type 2 diabetes; 3) the effect of supplementation with alpha-tocopherol or beta-carotene on the risk of incident type 2 diabetes; and on macrovascular complications and mortality among type 2 diabetics. This investigation was part of the Alpha-Tocopherol, Beta-Carotene Cancer Prevention (ATBC) Study, a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled prevention trial, which has undertaken to examine the effect of alpha-tocopherol and beta-carotene supplementation on the development of lung cancer, other cancers, and cardiovascular diseases in male smokers aged 50-69 years at baseline. Participants were assigned to receive either 50 mg alpha-tocopherol, 20mg beta-carotene, both, or placebo daily in a 2 x 2 factorial design experiment during 1985-1993. Cases of incident diabetes were identified through a nationwide register of drug reimbursements of the Social Insurance Institution. At baseline 1700 men had a history of diabetes. Among those (n = 27 379) with no diabetes at baseline 305 new cases of type 2 diabetes were recognized during the intervention period and 705 during the whole follow-up to 12.5 years. Weight gain and weight fluctuation measured over a three year period were independent risk factors for subsequent incident type 2 diabetes. Relative risk (RR) was 1.77 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.44-2.17) for weight gain of at least 4 kg compared to those with a weight change of less than 4 kg. The RR in the highest weight fluctuation quintile compared to the lowest was 1.64 (95% CI 1.24-2.17). Dietary tocopherols and tocotrienols as well as dietary carotenoids, flavonols, flavones and vitamin C were not associated with the risk of type 2 diabetes. Baseline serum alpha-tocopherol and beta-carotene concentrations were not associated with the risk of incident diabetes. Neither alpha-tocopherol nor beta-carotene supplementation affected the risk of diabetes. The relative risks for participants who received alpha-tocopherol compared with nonrecipients and for participants who received beta-carotene compared with nonrecipients were 0.92 (95% CI 0.79-1.07) and 0.99 (95% CI 0.85-1.15), respectively. Furthermore, alpha-tocopherol or beta-carotene supplementation did not affect the risk of macrovascular complications or mortality of diabetic subjects during the 19 years follow-up time. In conclusion, in this study of older middle-aged male smokers, weight gain and weight fluctuation were independent risk factors for type 2 diabetes. Intake of antioxidants or serum alpha-tocopherol or beta-carotene concentrations were not associated with the risk of type 2 diabetes. Supplementation with of alpha-tocopherol or beta-carotene did not prevent type 2 diabetes. Neither did they prevent macrovascular complications, or mortality among diabetic subjects.

Aktuaariraportti 2011: Kelan hoitama sosiaaliturva 2010–2060

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