Modernity, postmodernity and identity of jazz in Chile : The cases of the generation of 1990 and Ángel Parra

This research is about jazz in Chile in relation to modernity and identity. Final chapters focus and detach latest jazz musician s generation in 1990 decade and composer guitarist Angel Parra. An historic and sociological approach is developed, which will be useful for modernity and identity analysis, and so on post modernity and globalization. Modernity has been studied in texts of Adorno, Baudrillard, Brünner, García Canclini, Habermas and Jameson. Identity has been studied in texts of Aharonián, Cordúa, Garretón, Gissi, Larraín and others. Chapter 3 is about Latin-American musicology and jazz investigations, in relation to approach developed in chapter 2. Chapters 4 and 5 are about history of jazz in Chile until beginning of XXI century. Chapter 6 focuses in Ángel Parra Orrego. Conclusions of this investigation detach the modernist mechanical that has conducted jazz development in Chile, which in Ángel Parra´s case has been overcame by a post modernist behaviour. This behaviour has solved in a creative way, subjects like modernity and identity in jazz practice in a Latin-American country.

Fatigued driving : prevalence, risk factors and groups, and the law

Fatigue and sleepiness are major causes of road traffic accidents. However, precise data is often lacking because a validated and reliable device for detecting the level of sleepiness (cf. the breathalyzer for alcohol levels) does not exist, nor does criteria for the unambiguous detection of fatigue/sleepiness as a contributing factor in accident causation. Therefore, identification of risk factors and groups might not always be easy. Furthermore, it is extremely difficult to incorporate fatigue in operationalized terms into either traffic or criminal law. The main aims of this thesis were to estimate the prevalence of fatigue problems while driving among the Finnish driving population, to explore how VALT multidisciplinary investigation teams, Finnish police, and courts recognize (and prosecute) fatigue in traffic, to identify risk factors and groups, and finally to explore the application of the Finnish Road Traffic Act (RTA), which explicitly forbids driving while tired in Article 63. Several different sources of data were used: a computerized database and the original folders of multidisciplinary teams investigating fatal accidents (VALT), the driver records database (AKE), prosecutor and court decisions, a survey of young male military conscripts, and a survey of a representative sample of the Finnish active driving population. The results show that 8-15% of fatal accidents during 1991-2001 were fatigue related, that every fifth Finnish driver has fallen asleep while driving at some point during his/her driving career, and that the Finnish police and courts punish on average one driver per day on the basis of fatigued driving (based on the data from the years 2004-2005). The main finding regarding risk factors and risk groups is that during the summer months, especially in the afternoon, the risk of falling asleep while driving is increased. Furthermore, the results indicate that those with a higher risk of falling asleep while driving are men in general, but especially young male drivers including military conscripts and the elderly during the afternoon hours and the summer in particular; professional drivers breaking the rules about duty and rest hours; and drivers with a tendency to fall asleep easily. A time-of-day pattern of sleep-related incidents was repeatedly found. It was found that VALT teams can be considered relatively reliable when assessing the role of fatigue and sleepiness in accident causation; thus, similar experts might be valuable in the court process as expert witnesses when fatigue or sleepiness are suspected to have a role in an accident’s origins. However, the application of Article 63 of the RTA that forbids, among other things, fatigued driving will continue to be an issue that deserves further attention. This should be done in the context of a needed attitude change towards driving while in a state of extreme tiredness (e.g., after being awake for more than 24 hours), which produces performance deterioration comparable to illegal intoxication (BAC around 0.1%). Regarding the well-known interactive effect of increased sleepiness and even small alcohol levels, the relatively high proportion (up to 14.5%) of Finnish drivers owning and using a breathalyzer raises some concern. This concern exists because these drivers are obviously more focused on not breaking the “magic” line of 0.05% BAC than being concerned about driving impairment, which might be much worse than they realize because of the interactive effects of increased sleepiness and even low alcohol consumption. In conclusion, there is no doubt that fatigue and sleepiness problems while driving are common among the Finnish driving population. While we wait for the invention of reliable devices for fatigue/sleepiness detection, we should invest more effort in raising public awareness about the dangerousness of fatigued driving and educate drivers about how to recognize and deal with fatigue and sleepiness when they ultimately occur.

Pain among employees : risk factors and consequences

The overall objective of this study was to gain epidemiological knowledge about pain among employee populations. More specifically, the aims were to assess the prevalence of pain, to identify socio-economic risk groups and work-related psychosocial risk factors, and to assess the consequences in terms of health-related functioning and sickness absence. The study was carried out among the municipal employees of the City of Helsinki. Data comprised questionnaire survey conducted in years 2000-2002 and register data on sickness absence. Altogether 8960 40-60 year old employees participated to the survey (response rate 67%). Pain is common among ageing employees. Approximately 29 per cent of employees reported chronic pain and 15 per cent acute pain, and about seven per cent reported moderately or severely limiting disabling chronic pain. Pain was more common among those with lower level of education or in a low occupational class. -- Psychosocial work environment was associated with pain reports. Job strain, bullying at workplace, and problems in combining work and home duties were associated with pain among women. Among men combining work and home duties was not associated with pain, whereas organizational injustice showed associations. Pain affects functional capacity and predicts sickness absence. Those with pain reported lower level of both mental and physical functioning than those with no pain, physical functioning being more strongly affected than mental. Bodily location of pain or whether pain was acute or chronic had only minor impact on the variation in functioning, whereas the simple count of painful locations was associated with widest variation. Pain accounted for eight per cent of short term (1-3 day) sickness absence spells among men and 13 per cent among women. Of absence spells lasting between four and 14 days pain accounted for 23 per cent among women and 25 per cent among men, corresponding figures for over 14 day absence spells being 37 and 30 per cent. The association between pain and sickness absence was relatively independent of physical and psychosocial work factors, especially among women. The results of this study provide a picture of the epidemiology of pain among employees. Pain is a significant problem that seriously affects work ability. Information on risk groups can be utilized to make prevention measures more effective among those at high risk, and to decrease pain rates and thereby narrow the differences between socio-economic groups. Furthermore, the work-related psychosocial risk factors identified in this study are potentially modifiable, and it should be possible to target interventions on decreasing pain rates among employees.

Placental abruption : Studies on incidence, risk factors and potential predictive biomarkers

Placental abruption, one of the most significant causes of perinatal mortality and maternal morbidity, occurs in 0.5-1% of pregnancies. Its etiology is unknown, but defective trophoblastic invasion of the spiral arteries and consequent poor vascularization may play a role. The aim of this study was to define the prepregnancy risk factors of placental abruption, to define the risk factors during the index pregnancy, and to describe the clinical presentation of placental abruption. We also wanted to find a biochemical marker for predicting placental abruption early in pregnancy. Among women delivering at the University Hospital of Helsinki in 1997-2001 (n=46,742), 198 women with placental abruption and 396 control women were identified. The overall incidence of placental abruption was 0.42%. The prepregnancy risk factors were smoking (OR 1.7; 95% CI 1.1, 2.7), uterine malformation (OR 8.1; 1.7, 40), previous cesarean section (OR 1.7; 1.1, 2.8), and history of placental abruption (OR 4.5; 1.1, 18). The risk factors during the index pregnancy were maternal (adjusted OR 1.8; 95% CI 1.1, 2.9) and paternal smoking (2.2; 1.3, 3.6), use of alcohol (2.2; 1.1, 4.4), placenta previa (5.7; 1.4, 23.1), preeclampsia (2.7; 1.3, 5.6) and chorioamnionitis (3.3; 1.0, 10.0). Vaginal bleeding (70%), abdominal pain (51%), bloody amniotic fluid (50%) and fetal heart rate abnormalities (69%) were the most common clinical manifestations of placental abruption. Retroplacental blood clot was seen by ultrasound in 15% of the cases. Neither bleeding nor pain was present in 19% of the cases. Overall, 59% went into preterm labor (OR 12.9; 95% CI 8.3, 19.8), and 91% were delivered by cesarean section (34.7; 20.0, 60.1). Of the newborns, 25% were growth restricted. The perinatal mortality rate was 9.2% (OR 10.1; 95% CI 3.4, 30.1). We then tested selected biochemical markers for prediction of placental abruption. The median of the maternal serum alpha-fetoprotein (MSAFP) multiples of median (MoM) (1.21) was significantly higher in the abruption group (n=57) than in the control group (n=108) (1.07) (p=0.004) at 15-16 gestational weeks. In multivariate analysis, elevated MSAFP remained as an independent risk factor for placental abruption, adjusting for parity ≥ 3, smoking, previous placental abruption, preeclampsia, bleeding in II or III trimester, and placenta previa. MSAFP ≥ 1.5 MoM had a sensitivity of 29% and a false positive rate of 10%. The levels of the maternal serum free beta human chorionic gonadotrophin MoM did not differ between the cases and the controls. None of the angiogenic factors (soluble endoglin, soluble fms-like tyrosine kinase 1, or placental growth factor) showed any difference between the cases (n=42) and the controls (n=50) in the second trimester. The levels of C-reactive protein (CRP) showed no difference between the cases (n=181) and the controls (n=261) (median 2.35 mg/l [interquartile range {IQR} 1.09-5.93] versus 2.28 mg/l [IQR 0.92-5.01], not significant) when tested in the first trimester (mean 10.4 gestational weeks). Chlamydia pneumoniae specific immunoglobulin G (IgG) and immunoglobulin A (IgA) as well as C. trachomatis specific IgG, IgA and chlamydial heat-shock protein 60 antibody rates were similar between the groups. In conclusion, although univariate analysis identified many prepregnancy risk factors for placental abruption, only smoking, uterine malformation, previous cesarean section and history of placental abruption remained significant by multivariate analysis. During the index pregnancy maternal alcohol consumption and smoking and smoking by the partner turned out to be the major independent risk factors for placental abruption. Smoking by both partners multiplied the risk. The liberal use of ultrasound examination contributed little to the management of women with placental abruption. Although second-trimester MSAFP levels were higher in women with subsequent placental abruption, clinical usefulness of this test is limited due to low sensitivity and high false positive rate. Similarly, angiogenic factors in early second trimester, or CRP levels, or chlamydial antibodies in the first trimester failed to predict placental abruption.

Psychiatric disturbances in children with intellectual disability : Prevalence, risk factors and assessment

Children with intellectual disability are at increased risk for emotional and behavioural problems, but many of these disturbances fail to be diagnosed. Structured checklists have been used to supplement the psychiatric assessment of children without intellectual disability, but for children with intellectual disability, only a few checklists are available. The aim of the study was to investigate psychiatric disturbances among children with intellectual disability: the prevalence, types and risk factors of psychiatric disturbances as well as the applicability of the Finnish translations of the Developmental Behaviour Checklist (DBC-P) and the Child Behavior Checklist (CBCL) in the assessment of psychopathology. The subjects comprised 155 children with intellectual disability, and data were obtained from case records and five questionnaires completed by the parents or other carers of the child. According to case records, a psychiatric disorder had previously been diagnosed in 11% of the children. Upon careful re-examination of case records, the total proportion of children with a psychiatric disorder increased to 33%. According to checklists, the frequency of probable psychiatric disorder was 34% by the DBC-P, and 43% by the CBCL. The most common diagnoses were pervasive developmental disorders and hyperkinetic disorders. The results support previous findings that compared with children without intellectual disability, the risk of psychiatric disturbances is 2-3-fold in children with intellectual disability. The risk of psychopathology was most significantly increased by moderate intellectual disability and low socio-economic status, and decreased by adaptive behaviour, language development, and socialisation as well as living with both biological parents. The results of the study suggest that both the DBC-P and the CBCL can be used to discriminate between children with intellectual disability with and without emotional or psychiatric disturbance. The DBC-P is suitable for children with any degree of intellectual disability, and the CBCL is suitable at least for children with mild intellectual disability. Because the problems of children with intellectual disability differ somewhat from those of children without intellectual disability, checklists designed specifically for children with intellectual disability are needed.

Effects of Metabolic Risk Factors and Type 1 Diabetes on Brain Glucose and Brain Metabolites

The metabolic syndrome and type 1 diabetes are associated with brain alterations such as cognitive decline brain infarctions, atrophy, and white matter lesions. Despite the importance of these alterations, their pathomechanism is still poorly understood. This study was conducted to investigate brain glucose and metabolites in healthy individuals with an increased cardiovascular risk and in patients with type 1 diabetes in order to discover more information on the nature of the known brain alterations. We studied 43 20- to 45-year-old men. Study I compared two groups of non-diabetic men, one with an accumulation of cardiovascular risk factors and another without. Studies II to IV compared men with type 1 diabetes (duration of diabetes 6.7 ± 5.2 years, no microvascular complications) with non-diabetic men. Brain glucose, N-acetylaspartate (NAA), total creatine (tCr), choline, and myo-inositol (mI) were quantified with proton magnetic resonance spectroscopy in three cerebral regions: frontal cortex, frontal white matter, thalamus, and in cerebellar white matter. Data collection was performed for all participants during fasting glycemia and in a subgroup (Studies III and IV), also during a hyperglycemic clamp that increased plasma glucose concentration by 12 mmol/l. In non-diabetic men, the brain glucose concentration correlated linearly with plasma glucose concentration. The cardiovascular risk group (Study I) had a 13% higher plasma glucose concentration than the control group, but no difference in thalamic glucose content. The risk group thus had lower thalamic glucose content than expected. They also had 17% increased tCr (marker of oxidative metabolism). In the control group, tCr correlated with thalamic glucose content, but in the risk group, tCr correlated instead with fasting plasma glucose and 2-h plasma glucose concentration in the oral glucose tolerance test. Risk factors of the metabolic syndrome, most importantly insulin resistance, may thus influence brain metabolism. During fasting glycemia (Study II), regional variation in the cerebral glucose levels appeared in the non-diabetic subjects but not in those with diabetes. In diabetic patients, excess glucose had accumulated predominantly in the white matter where the metabolite alterations were also the most pronounced. Compared to the controls values, the white matter NAA (marker of neuronal metabolism) was 6% lower and mI (glia cell marker) 20% higher. Hyperglycemia is therefore a potent risk factor for diabetic brain disease and the metabolic brain alterations may appear even before any peripheral microvascular complications are detectable. During acute hyperglycemia (Study III), the increase in cerebral glucose content in the patients with type 1 diabetes was, dependent on brain region, between 1.1 and 2.0 mmol/l. An every-day hyperglycemic episode in a diabetic patient may therefore as much as double brain glucose concentration. While chronic hyperglycemia had led to accumulation of glucose in the white matter, acute hyperglycemia burdened predominantly the gray matter. Acute hyperglycemia also revealed that chronic fluctuation in blood glucose may be associated with alterations in glucose uptake or in metabolism in the thalamus. The cerebellar white matter appeared very differently from the cerebral (Study IV). In the non-diabetic men it contained twice as much glucose as the cerebrum. Diabetes had altered neither its glucose content nor the brain metabolites. The cerebellum seems therefore more resistant to the effects of hyperglycemia than is the cerebrum.

Childhood otitis media - risk factors and surgical management

Background: Otitis media (OM) is one of the most common childhood diseases. Approximately every third child suffers from recurrent acute otitis media (RAOM), and 5% of all children have persistent middle ear effusion for months during their childhood. Despite numerous studies on the prevention and treatment of OM during the past decades, its management remains challenging and controversial. In this study, the effect of adenoidectomy on the risk for OM, the potential risk factors influencing the development of OM and the frequency of asthma among otitis-prone children were investigated. Subjects and methods: One prospective randomized trial and two retrospective studies were conducted. In the prospective trial, 217 children with RAOM or chronic otitis media with effusion (COME) were randomized to have tympanostomy with or without adenoidectomy. The age of the children at recruitment was between 1 and 4 years. RAOM was defined as having at least 3 episodes of AOM during the last 6 months or at least 5 episodes of AOM during the last 12 months. COME was defined as having persistent middle ear effusion for 2-3 months. The children were followed up for one year. In the first retrospective study, the frequency of childhood infections and allergy was evaluated by a questionnaire among 819 individuals. In the second retrospective study, data of asthma diagnosis were analysed from hospital discharge records of 1616 children who underwent adenoidectomy or had probing of the nasolacrimal duct. Results: In the prospective randomized study, adenoidectomy had no beneficial effect on the prevention of subsequent episodes of AOM. Parental smoking was found to be a significant risk factor for OM even after the insertion of tympanostomy tubes. The frequencies of exposure to tobacco smoke and day-care attendance at the time of randomization were similar among children with RAOM and COME. However, the frequencies of allergy to animal dust and pollen and parental asthma were lower among children with COME than those with RAOM. The questionnaire survey and the hospital discharge data revealed that children who had frequent episodes of OM had an increased risk for asthma. Conclusions: The first surgical intervention to treat an otitis-prone child younger than 4 years should not include adenoidectomy. Interventions to stop parental smoking could significantly reduce the risk for childhood RAOM. Whether an otitis-prone child develops COME or RAOM, seems to be influenced by genetic predisposition more strongly than by environmental risk factors. Children who suffer from repeated upper respiratory tract infections, like OM, may be at increased risk for developing asthma.

High-risk patients and high-risk grafts in infrainguinal bypass for critical limb ischaemia

The main purpose of revascularization procedures for critical limb ischaemia (CLI) is to preserve the leg and sustain the patient s ambulatory status. Other goals are ischaemic pain relief and healing of ischaemic ulcers. Patients with CLI are usually old and have several comorbidities affecting the outcome. Revascularization for CLI is meaningless unless both life and limb are preserved. Therefore, the knowledge of both patient- and bypass-related risk factors is of paramount importance in clinical decision-making, patient selection and resource allocation. The aim of this study was to identify patient- and graft-related predictors of impaired outcome after infrainguinal bypass for CLI. The purpose was to assess the outcome of high-risk patients undergoing infrainguinal bypass and to evaluate the usefulness of specific risk scoring methods. The results of bypasses in the absence of optimal vein graft material were also evaluated, and the feasibility of the new method of scaffolding suboptimal vein grafts was assessed. The results of this study showed that renal insufficiency - not only renal failure but also moderate impairment in renal function - seems to be a significant risk factor for both limb loss and death after infrainguinal bypass in patients with CLI. Low estimated GFR (PIENEMPI KUIN 30 ml/min/1.73 m2) is a strong independent marker of poor prognosis. Furthermore, estimated GFR is a more accurate predictor of survival and leg salvage after infrainguinal bypass in CLI patients than serum creatinine level alone. We also found out that the life expectancy of octogenarians with CLI is short. In this patient group endovascular revascularization is associated with a better outcome than bypass in terms of survival, leg salvage and amputation-free survival especially in presence of coronary artery disease. This study was the first one to demonstrate that Finnvasc and modified Prevent III risk scoring methods both predict the long-term outcome of patients undergoing both surgical and endovascular infrainguinal revascularization for CLI. Both risk scoring methods are easy to use and might be helpful in clinical practice as an aid in preoperative patient selection and decision-making. Similarly than in previous studies, we found out that a single-segment great saphenous vein graft is superior to any other autologous vein graft in terms of mid-term patency and leg salvage. However, if optimal vein graft is lacking, arm vein conduits are superior to prosthetic grafts especially in infrapopliteal bypasses for CLI. We studied also the new method of scaffolding suboptimal quality vein grafts and found out that this method may enable the use of vein grafts of compromised quality otherwise unsuitable for bypass grafting. The remarkable finding was that patients with the combination of high operative risk due to severe comorbidities and risk graft have extremely poor survival, suggesting that only relatively fit patients should undergo complex bypasses with risk grafts. The results of this study can be used in clinical practice as an aid in preoperative patient selection and decision-making. In the future, the need of vascular surgery will increase significantly as the elderly and diabetic population increases, which emphasises the importance of focusing on those patients that will gain benefit from infrainguinal bypass. Therefore, the individual risk of the patient, ambulatory status, outcome expectations, the risk of bypass procedure as well as technical factors such as the suitability of outflow anatomy and the available vein material should all be assessed and taken into consideration when deciding on the best revascularization strategy.

From ‘Afflicted’ to Activists: Structural Violence and Climate Change Discourse in the States of Pernambuco and Paraíba in Northeast Brazil

This study approaches the problem of poverty in the hinterlands of Northeast Brazil through the concept of structural violence, linking the environmental threats posed by climate change, especially those related to droughts, to the broader social struggles in the region. When discussions about potentials and rights are incorporated into the problematic of poverty, a deeper insight is obtained regarding the various factors behind the phenomenon. It is generally believed that climate change is affecting the already marginalized and poor more than those of higher social standing, and will increasingly do so in the future. The data for this study was collected during a three month field work in the states of Pernambuco and Paraíba in Northeast Brazil. The main methods used were semi-structured interviews and participant observation, including attending seminars concerning climate change on the field. The focus of the work is to compare both layman and expert perceptions on what climate change is about, and question the assumptions about its effects in the future, mainly that of increased numbers of ‘climate refugees’ or people forced to migrate due to changes in climate. The focus on droughts, as opposed to other manifestations of climate change, arises from the fact that droughts are not only phenomena that develop over a longer time span than floods or hurricanes, but is also due to the historical persistence of droughts in the region, and both the institutional and cultural linkages that have evolved around it. The instances of structural violence that are highlighted in this study; the drought industry, land use, and the social and power relations present in the region, including those between the civil society, the state and the private agribusiness sector, all work against a backdrop of symbolic and moral realms of value production, where relations between the different actors are being negotiated anew with the rise of the climate change discourse. The main theoretical framework of the study consists of Johan Galtung’s and Paul Farmer’s theory of structural violence, Ulrich Beck’s theory of the risk society, and James Scott’s theory of everyday peasant resistance.

Immigrant Associations in the Metropolitan Area of Finland : Forms of Mobilisation, Participation and Representation

This study examines the role of immigrant associations in the societal and political integration of immigrants into Finnish society. The societal focus is on the ability of immigrant associations to mobilise their ethnic group members to participate in the socio-economic, cultural and political domains of Finnish society and in certain cases even beyond. The political integrative aims are the opportunities of immigrant associations to participate and represent the interests of their ethnic group in local and national policy making. This study focuses on associations in the Metropolitan Area of Finland, (Espoo, Helsinki and Vantaa).The qualitative research consisted of 71 interviews conducted with members of immigrant associations and civil servants. These interviews were mainly semi-structured, including some additional open-ended questions. Additional data consisted of documents, planning reports and of follow-up enquiries. -- In the analysis of the data I categorised thirty-two immigrant associations according to the activity forms and the description of the goals by the members. The four categories consisted of integrative, societal, ethno-cultural and transnational immigrant associations. Most of the immigrant associations belonged to the integrative category (15 of 32 associations). On the one hand the aims of these associations are to provide access for their ethnic group members into Finnish society, while on the other to strengthen the ethnic identity of their members by organising ethno-cultural activities. The societal associations only focused on activities with the objective of including immigrants into the Finnish labour market and educational system. The goal of ethno-cultural associations was to strengthen the ethnic identity of their ethnic group members. The transnational associations aimed at improving the living conditions of women and children in the members' country of origin. The possibilities for immigrant associations to mobilise their members depends partly on external financing. Subsidies have been allocated for societal activities in particular. There remains a risk of the crowding out of ethno-cultural activities: something which has already taken place in several European countries. Immigrant associations aim to strengthen the identity of immigrants mainly by organising social and ethno-cultural activities. Another important target was to provide peer support and therapy courses. Additionally, immigrant women's associations offer assistance to women who have encountered violence by providing counselling and in some cases access to shelter. The data showed that there is an ever growing need to pay heed to the well-being of women, children and elderly immigrants. The participation of immigrant associations in the municipalities' integrative issues takes place mainly through cooperative projects. Until the end of the 1990s there had not been much cooperation. The problem with the projects was that they had mainly been managed by civil servants, whereas members from immigrant associations had remained in a more passive position. Representation of immigrant associations in councils has been fairly weak. Immigrant associations are included in the multicultural councils of Espoo and Vantaa, but only in the planning stages. The municipality of Helsinki does not include immigrant associations due to the large number of organisations which causes problems in finding fair, democratic representation. At the national level, the ‘Advisory Board for Ethnic Relations’ – ETNO didn’t chose its members based on membership of ethnic associations, but based on belongingness to one of the larger language groups spoken by the foreign population in Finland. Since ETNO’s third period (2005-2007), the representatives of immigrant associations and ethnic minority groups have been chosen from proposed candidates. Key words: immigrant associations, integration, mobilisation, participation, representation, the Metropolitan area of Finland, immigrant (women), civil servants

Essays on the Linkages Between Financial Markets, and Risk Asymmetries (summary section only)

During the last few decades there have been far going financial market deregulation, technical development, advances in information technology, and standardization of legislation between countries. As a result, one can expect that financial markets have grown more interlinked. The proper understanding of the cross-market linkages has implications for investment and risk management, diversification, asset pricing, and regulation. The purpose of this research is to assess the degree of price, return, and volatility linkages between both geographic markets and asset categories within one country, Finland. Another purpose is to analyze risk asymmetries, i.e., the tendency of equity risk to be higher after negative events than after positive events of equal magnitude. The analysis is conducted both with respect to total risk (volatility), and systematic risk (beta). The thesis consists of an introductory part and four essays. The first essay studies to which extent international stock prices comove. The degree of comovements is low, indicating benefits from international diversification. The second essay examines the degree to which the Finnish market is linked to the “world market”. The total risk is divided into two parts, one relating to world factors, and one relating to domestic factors. The impact of world factors has increased over time. After 1993, when foreign investors were allowed to freely invest in Finnish assets, the risk level has been higher than previously. This was also the case during the economic recession in the beginning of the 1990’s. The third essay focuses on the stock, bond, and money markets in Finland. According to a trading model, the degree of volatility linkages should be strong. However, the results contradict this. The linkages are surprisingly weak, even negative. The stock market is the most independent, while the money market is affected by events on the two other markets. The fourth essay concentrates on volatility and beta asymmetries. Contrary to many international studies there are only few cases of risk asymmetries. When they occur, they tend to be driven by the market-wide component rather than the portfolio specific element.

Political Risk in Credit Evaluation: Empirical Studies and Survey Results

Financing trade between economic agents located in different countries is affected by many types of risks, resulting from incomplete information about the debtor, the problems of enforcing international contracts, or the prevalence of political and financial crises. Trade is important for economic development and the availability of trade finance is essential, especially for developing countries. Relatively few studies treat the topic of political risk, particularly in the context of international lending. This thesis explores new ground to identify links between political risk and international debt defaults. The core hypothesis of the study is that the default probability of debt increases with increasing political risk in the country of the borrower. The thesis consists of three essays that support the hypothesis from different angles of the credit evaluation process. The first essay takes the point of view of an international lender assessing the credit risk of a public borrower. The second investigates creditworthiness assessment of companies. The obtained results are substantiated in the third essay that deals with an extensive political risk survey among finance professionals in developing countries. The financial instruments of core interest are export credit guaranteed debt initiated between the Export Credit Agency of Finland and buyers in 145 countries between 1975 and 2006. Default events of the foreign credit counterparts are conditioned on country-specific macroeconomic variables, corporate-specific accounting information as well as political risk indicators from various international sources. Essay 1 examines debt issued to government controlled institutions and conditions public default events on traditional macroeconomic fundamentals, in addition to selected political and institutional risk factors. Confirming previous research, the study finds country indebtedness and the GDP growth rate to be significant indicators of public default. Further, it is shown that public defaults respond to various political risk factors. However, the impact of the risk varies between countries at different stages of economic development. Essay 2 proceeds by investigating political risk factors as conveivable drivers of corporate default and uses traditional accounting variables together with new political risk indicators in the credit evaluation of private debtors. The study finds links between corporate default and leverage, as well as between corporate default and the general investment climate and measeures of conflict in the debtor country. Essay 3 concludes the thesis by offering survey evidence on the impact of political risk on debt default, as perceived and experienced by 103 finance professionals in 38 developing countries. Taken together, the results of the thesis suggest that various forms of political risk are associated with international debt defaults and continue to pose great concerns for both international creditors and borrowers in developing countries. The study provides new insights on the importance of variable selection in country risk analysis, and shows how political risk is actually perceived and experienced in the riskier, often lower income countries of the global economy.