Fatigued driving : prevalence, risk factors and groups, and the law

Fatigue and sleepiness are major causes of road traffic accidents. However, precise data is often lacking because a validated and reliable device for detecting the level of sleepiness (cf. the breathalyzer for alcohol levels) does not exist, nor does criteria for the unambiguous detection of fatigue/sleepiness as a contributing factor in accident causation. Therefore, identification of risk factors and groups might not always be easy. Furthermore, it is extremely difficult to incorporate fatigue in operationalized terms into either traffic or criminal law. The main aims of this thesis were to estimate the prevalence of fatigue problems while driving among the Finnish driving population, to explore how VALT multidisciplinary investigation teams, Finnish police, and courts recognize (and prosecute) fatigue in traffic, to identify risk factors and groups, and finally to explore the application of the Finnish Road Traffic Act (RTA), which explicitly forbids driving while tired in Article 63. Several different sources of data were used: a computerized database and the original folders of multidisciplinary teams investigating fatal accidents (VALT), the driver records database (AKE), prosecutor and court decisions, a survey of young male military conscripts, and a survey of a representative sample of the Finnish active driving population. The results show that 8-15% of fatal accidents during 1991-2001 were fatigue related, that every fifth Finnish driver has fallen asleep while driving at some point during his/her driving career, and that the Finnish police and courts punish on average one driver per day on the basis of fatigued driving (based on the data from the years 2004-2005). The main finding regarding risk factors and risk groups is that during the summer months, especially in the afternoon, the risk of falling asleep while driving is increased. Furthermore, the results indicate that those with a higher risk of falling asleep while driving are men in general, but especially young male drivers including military conscripts and the elderly during the afternoon hours and the summer in particular; professional drivers breaking the rules about duty and rest hours; and drivers with a tendency to fall asleep easily. A time-of-day pattern of sleep-related incidents was repeatedly found. It was found that VALT teams can be considered relatively reliable when assessing the role of fatigue and sleepiness in accident causation; thus, similar experts might be valuable in the court process as expert witnesses when fatigue or sleepiness are suspected to have a role in an accident’s origins. However, the application of Article 63 of the RTA that forbids, among other things, fatigued driving will continue to be an issue that deserves further attention. This should be done in the context of a needed attitude change towards driving while in a state of extreme tiredness (e.g., after being awake for more than 24 hours), which produces performance deterioration comparable to illegal intoxication (BAC around 0.1%). Regarding the well-known interactive effect of increased sleepiness and even small alcohol levels, the relatively high proportion (up to 14.5%) of Finnish drivers owning and using a breathalyzer raises some concern. This concern exists because these drivers are obviously more focused on not breaking the “magic” line of 0.05% BAC than being concerned about driving impairment, which might be much worse than they realize because of the interactive effects of increased sleepiness and even low alcohol consumption. In conclusion, there is no doubt that fatigue and sleepiness problems while driving are common among the Finnish driving population. While we wait for the invention of reliable devices for fatigue/sleepiness detection, we should invest more effort in raising public awareness about the dangerousness of fatigued driving and educate drivers about how to recognize and deal with fatigue and sleepiness when they ultimately occur.

Early detection of type 2 diabetes mellitus in Chinese and Indian adult population

Objectives of this study were to determine secular trends of diabetes prevalence in China and develop simple risk assessment algorithms for screening individuals with high-risk for diabetes or with undiagnosed diabetes in Chinese and Indian adults. Two consecutive population based surveys in Chinese and a prospective study in Mauritian Indians were involved in this study. The Chinese surveys were conducted in randomly selected populations aged 20-74 years in 2001-2002 (n=14 592) and 35-74 years in 2006 (n=4416). A two-step screening strategy using fasting capillary plasma glucose (FCG) as first-line screening test followed by standard 2-hour 75g oral glucose tolerance tests (OGTTs) was applied to 12 436 individuals in 2001, while OGTTs were administrated to all participants together with FCG in 2006 and to 2156 subjects in 2002. In Mauritius, two consecutive population based surveys were conducted in Mauritian Indians aged 20-65 years in 1987 and 1992; 3094 Indians (1141 men), who were not diagnosed as diabetes at baseline, were reexamined with OGTTs in 1992 and/or 1998. Diabetes and pre-diabetes was defined following 2006 World Health Organization/ International Diabetes Federation Criteria. Age-standardized, as well as age- and sex-specific, prevalence of diabetes and pre-diabetes in adult Chinese was significantly increased from 12.2% and 15.4% in 2001 to 16.0% and 21.2% in 2006, respectively. A simple Chinese diabetes risk score was developed based on the data of Chinese survey 2001-2002 and validated in the population of survey 2006. The risk scores based on β coefficients derived from the final Logistic regression model ranged from 3 – 32. When the score was applied to the population of survey 2006, the area under operating characteristic curve (AUC) of the score for screening undiagnosed diabetes was 0.67 (95% CI, 0.65-0.70), which was lower than the AUC of FCG (0.76 [0.74-0.79]), but similar to that of HbA1c (0.68 [0.65-0.71]). At a cut-off point of 14, the sensitivity and specificity of the risk score in screening undiagnosed diabetes was 0.84 (0.81-0.88) and 0.40 (0.38-0.41). In Mauritian Indian, body mass index (BMI), waist girth, family history of diabetes (FH), and glucose was confirmed to be independent risk predictors for developing diabetes. Predicted probabilities for developing diabetes derived from a simple Cox regression model fitted with sex, FH, BMI and waist girth ranged from 0.05 to 0.64 in men and 0.03 to 0.49 in women. To predict the onset of diabetes, the AUC of the predicted probabilities was 0.62 (95% CI, 0.56-0.68) in men and 0.64(0.59-0.69) in women. At a cut-off point of 0.12, the sensitivity and specificity was 0.72(0.71-0.74) and 0.47(0.45-0.49) in men; and 0.77(0.75-0.78) and 0.50(0.48-0.52) in women, respectively. In conclusion, there was a rapid increase in prevalence of diabetes in Chinese adults from 2001 to 2006. The simple risk assessment algorithms based on age, obesity and family history of diabetes showed a moderate discrimination of diabetes from non-diabetes, which may be used as first line screening tool for diabetes and pre-diabetes, and for health promotion purpose in Chinese and Indians.

Evolution and detection of cyanobacterial hepatotoxin synthetase genes

Mass occurrences (blooms) of cyanobacteria are common in aquatic environments worldwide. These blooms are often toxic, due to the presence of hepatotoxins or neurotoxins. The most common cyanobacterial toxins are hepatotoxins: microcystins and nodularins. In freshwaters, the main producers of microcystins are Microcystis, Anabaena, and Planktothrix. Nodularins are produced by strains of Nodularia spumigena in brackish waters. Toxic and nontoxic strains of cyanobacteria co-occur and cannot be differentiated by conventional microscopy. Molecular biological methods based on microcystin and nodularin synthetase genes enable detection of potentially hepatotoxic cyanobacteria. In the present study, molecular detection methods for hepatotoxin-producing cyanobacteria were developed, based on microcystin synthetase gene E (mcyE) and the orthologous nodularin synthetase gene F (ndaF) sequences. General primers were designed to amplify the mcyE/ndaF gene region from microcystin-producing Anabaena, Microcystis, Planktothrix, and Nostoc, and nodularin-producing Nodularia strains. The sequences were used for phylogenetic analyses to study how cyanobacterial mcy genes have evolved. The results showed that mcy genes and microcystin are very old and were already present in the ancestor of many modern cyanobacterial genera. The results also suggested that the sporadic distribution of biosynthetic genes in modern cyanobacteria is caused by repeated gene losses in the more derived lineages of cyanobacteria and not by horizontal gene transfer. Phylogenetic analysis also proposed that nda genes evolved from mcy genes. The frequency and composition of the microcystin producers in 70 lakes in Finland were studied by conventional polymerase chain reaction (PCR). Potential microcystin producers were detected in 84% of the lakes, using general mcyE primers, and in 91% of the lakes with the three genus-specific mcyE primers. Potential microcystin-producing Microcystis were detected in 70%, Planktothrix in 63%, and Anabaena in 37% of the lakes. The presence and co-occurrence of potential microcystin producers were more frequent in eutrophic lakes, where the total phosphorus concentration was high. The PCR results could also be associated with various environmental factors by correlation and regression analyses. In these analyses, the total nitrogen concentration and pH were both associated with the presence of multiple microcystin-producing genera and partly explained the probability of occurrence of mcyE genes. In general, the results showed that higher nutrient concentrations increased the occurrence of potential microcystin producers and the risk for toxic bloom formation. Genus-specific probe pairs for microcystin-producing Anabaena, Microcystis, Planktothrix, and Nostoc, and nodularin-producing Nodularia were designed to be used in a DNA-chip assay. The DNA-chip can be used to simultaneously detect all these potential microcystin/nodularin producers in environmental water samples. The probe pairs detected the mcyE/ndaF genes specifically and sensitively when tested with cyanobacterial strains. In addition, potential microcystin/nodularin producers were identified in lake and Baltic Sea samples by the DNA-chip almost as sensitively as by quantitative real-time PCR (qPCR), which was used to validate the DNA-chip results. Further improvement of the DNA-chip assay was achieved by optimization of the PCR, the first step in the assay. Analysis of the mcy and nda gene clusters from various hepatotoxin-producing cyanobacteria was rewarding; it revealed that the genes were ancient. In addition, new methods detecting all the main producers of hepatotoxins could be developed. Interestingly, potential microcystin-producing cyanobacterial strains of Microcystis, Planktothrix, and Anabaena, co-occurred especially in eutrophic and hypertrophic lakes. Protecting waters from eutrophication and restoration of lakes may thus decrease the prevalence of toxic cyanobacteria and the frequency of toxic blooms.

Modern techniques in detection, identification and quantification of bacteria and peptides from foods

Standards have been placed to regulate the microbial and preservative contents to assure that foods are safe to the consumer. In a case of a food-related disease outbreak, it is crucial to be able to detect and identify quickly and accurately the cause of the disease. In addition, for every day control of food microbial and preservative contents, the detection methods must be easily performed for numerous food samples. In this present study, quicker alternative methods were studied for identification of bacteria by DNA fingerprinting. A flow cytometry method was developed as an alternative to pulsed-field gel electrophoresis, the golden method . DNA fragment sizing by an ultrasensitive flow cytometer was able to discriminate species and strains in a reproducible and comparable manner to pulsed-field gel electrophoresis. This new method was hundreds times faster and 200,000 times more sensitive. Additionally, another DNA fingerprinting identification method was developed based on single-enzyme amplified fragment length polymorphism (SE-AFLP). This method allowed the differentiation of genera, species, and strains of pathogenic bacteria of Bacilli, Staphylococci, Yersinia, and Escherichia coli. These fingerprinting patterns obtained by SE-AFLP were simpler and easier to analyze than those by the traditional amplified fragment length polymorphism by double enzyme digestion. Nisin (E234) is added as a preservative to different types of foods, especially dairy products, around the world. Various detection methods exist for nisin, but they lack in sensitivity, speed or specificity. In this present study, a sensitive nisin-induced green fluorescent protein (GFPuv) bioassay was developed using the Lactococcus lactis two-component signal system NisRK and the nisin-inducible nisA promoter. The bioassay was extremely sensitive with detection limit of 10 pg/ml in culture supernatant. In addition, it was compatible for quantification from various food matrices, such as milk, salad dressings, processed cheese, liquid eggs, and canned tomatoes. Wine has good antimicrobial properties due to its alcohol concentration, low pH, and organic content and therefore often assumed to be microbially safe to consume. Another aim of this thesis was to study the microbiota of wines returned by customers complaining of food-poisoning symptoms. By partial 16S rRNA gene sequence analysis, ribotyping, and boar spermatozoa motility assay, it was identified that one of the wines contained a Bacillus simplex BAC91, which produced a heat-stable substance toxic to the mitochondria of sperm cells. The antibacterial activity of wine was tested on the vegetative cells and spores of B. simplex BAC91, B. cereus type strain ATCC 14579 and cereulide-producing B. cereus F4810/72. Although the vegetative cells and spores of B. simplex BAC91 were sensitive to the antimicrobial effects of wine, the spores of B. cereus strains ATCC 14579 and F4810/72 stayed viable for at least 4 months. According to these results, Bacillus spp., more specifically spores, can be a possible risk to the wine consumer.

Immune response to insulin and changes in the gut immune system in children with or at risk for type 1 diabetes

Type 1 diabetes (T1D) is considered to be an autoimmune disease. The cause of T1D is the destruction of insulin-producing β-cells in the pancreatic islets. The autoimmune nature of T1D is characterized by the presence of autoreactive T-cells and autoantibodies against β-cell molecules. Insulin is the only β-cell-specific autoantigen associated with T1D but the insulin autoantibodies (IAAs) are difficult to measure with proper sensitivity. T-cell assays for detection of autoreactive T-cells, such as insulin-specific T-cells, have also proven to be difficult to perform. The genetic risk of T1D is associated with the HLA gene region but the environmental factors also play an important role. The most studied environmental risk factors of T1D are enteroviruses and cow's milk which both affect the immune system through the gut. One hypothesis is that the insulin-specific immune response develops against bovine insulin in cow's milk during early infancy and later spreads to include human insulin. The aims of this study were to determine whether the separation of immunoglobulin (Ig)G from plasma would improve the sensitivity of the IAA assay and how insulin treatment affects the cellular immune response to insulin in newly diagnosed patients. Furthermore, the effect of insulin concentration in mother's breast milk on the development of antibodies to dietary insulin in the child was examined. Small intestinal biopsies were also obtained from children with T1D to characterize any immunological changes associated with T1D in the gut. The isolation of the IgG fraction from the plasma of T1D patients negative for plasma IAA led to detectable IAA levels that exceeded those in the control children. Thus the isolation of IgG may improve the sensitivity of the IAA assay. The effect of insulin treatment on insulin-specific T-cells was studied by culturing peripheral blood mononuclear cells with insulin. The insulin stimulation induced increased expression of regulatory T-cell markers, such as Foxp3, in those patients treated with insulin than in patients examined before initiating insulin treatment. This finding suggests that insulin treatment in patients with T1D stimulates regulatory T-cells in vivo and this may partly explain the difficulties in measuring autoantigen-specific T-cell responses in recently diagnosed patients. The stimulation of regulatory T-cells by insulin treatment may also explain the remission period often seen after initiating insulin treatment. In the third study we showed that insulin concentration in mother's breast milk correlates inversely with the levels of bovine insulin-specific antibodies in those infants who were exposed to cow's milk proteins in their diet, suggesting that human insulin in breast milk induces tolerance to dietary bovine insulin. However, in infants who later developed T1D-associated autoantibodies, the insulin concentration in their mother's breast milk was increased. This finding may indicate that in those children prone to β-cell autoimmunity, breast milk insulin does not promote tolerance to insulin. In the small intestinal biopsies the presence of several immunological markers were quantified with the RT-PCR. From these markers the expression of the interleukin (IL)-18 cytokine was significantly increased in the gut in patients with T1D compared with children with celiac disease or control children. The increased IL-18 expression lends further support for the hypothesis that the gut immune system is involved in the pathogenesis of T1D.

Detection and progression of chronic allograft nephropathy : A study based on protocol biopsies

Background. Kidney transplantation (KTX) is considered to be the best treatment of terminal uremia. Despite improvements in short-term graft survival, a considerable number of kidney allografts are lost due to the premature death of patients with a functional kidney and to chronic allograft nephropathy (CAN). Aim. To investigate the risk factors involved in the progression of CAN and to analyze diagnostic methods for this entity. Materials and methods. Altogether, 153 implant and 364 protocol biopsies obtained between June 1996 and April 2008 were analyzed. The biopsies were classified according to Banff ’97 and chronic allograft damage index (CADI). Immunohistochemistry for TGF-β1 was performed in 49 biopsies. Kidney function was evaluated by creatinine and/or cystatin C measurement and by various estimates of glomerular filtration rate (GFR). Demographic data of the donors and recipients were recorded after 2 years’ follow-up. Results. Most of the 3-month biopsies (73%) were nearly normal. The mean CADI score in the 6-month biopsies decreased significantly after 2001. Diastolic hypertension correlated with ΔCADI. Serum creatinine concentration at hospital discharge and glomerulosclerosis were risk factors for ΔCADI. High total and LDL cholesterol, low HDL and hypertension correlated with chronic histological changes. The mean age of the donors increased from 41 -52 years. Older donors were more often women who had died from an underlying disease. The prevalence of delayed graft function increased over the years, while acute rejections (AR) decreased significantly over the years. Sub-clinical AR was observed in 4% and it did not affect long-term allograft function or CADI. Recipients´ drug treatment was modified along the Studies, being mycophenolate mophetil, tacrolimus, statins and blockers of the renine-angiotensin-system more frequently prescribed after 2001. Patients with a higher ΔCADI had lower GFR during follow-up. CADI over 2 was best predicted by creatinine, although with modest sensitivity and specificity. Neither cystatin C nor other estimates of GFR were superior to creatinine for CADI prediction. Cyclosporine A toxicity was seldom seen. Low cyclosporin A concentration after 2 h correlated with TGF- β1 expression in interstitial inflammatory cells, and this predicted worse graft function. Conclusions. The progression of CAN has been affected by two major factors: the donors’ characteristics and the recipients’ hypertension. The increased prevalence of DGF might be a consequence of the acceptance of older donors who had died from an underlying disease. Implant biopsies proved to be of prognostic value, and they are essential for comparison with subsequent biopsies. The progression of histological damage was associated with hypertension and dyslipidemia. The augmented expression of TGF-β1 in inflammatory cells is unclear, but it may be related to low immunosuppression. Serum creatinine is the most suitable tool for monitoring kidney allograft function on every-day basis. However, protocol biopsies at 6 and 12 months predicted late kidney allograft dysfunction and affected the clinical management of the patients. Protocol biopsies are thus a suitable surrogate to be used in clinical trials and for monitoring kidney allografts.

Essays on Risk Modeling. Applications to Portfolio and Risk Management (summary section only)

In this thesis we deal with the concept of risk. The objective is to bring together and conclude on some normative information regarding quantitative portfolio management and risk assessment. The first essay concentrates on return dependency. We propose an algorithm for classifying markets into rising and falling. Given the algorithm, we derive a statistic: the Trend Switch Probability, for detection of long-term return dependency in the first moment. The empirical results suggest that the Trend Switch Probability is robust over various volatility specifications. The serial dependency in bear and bull markets behaves however differently. It is strongly positive in rising market whereas in bear markets it is closer to a random walk. Realized volatility, a technique for estimating volatility from high frequency data, is investigated in essays two and three. In the second essay we find, when measuring realized variance on a set of German stocks, that the second moment dependency structure is highly unstable and changes randomly. Results also suggest that volatility is non-stationary from time to time. In the third essay we examine the impact from market microstructure on the error between estimated realized volatility and the volatility of the underlying process. With simulation-based techniques we show that autocorrelation in returns leads to biased variance estimates and that lower sampling frequency and non-constant volatility increases the error variation between the estimated variance and the variance of the underlying process. From these essays we can conclude that volatility is not easily estimated, even from high frequency data. It is neither very well behaved in terms of stability nor dependency over time. Based on these observations, we would recommend the use of simple, transparent methods that are likely to be more robust over differing volatility regimes than models with a complex parameter universe. In analyzing long-term return dependency in the first moment we find that the Trend Switch Probability is a robust estimator. This is an interesting area for further research, with important implications for active asset allocation.

Microbial identification by detection of ligation probes on DNA microarray

Microbes in natural and artificial environments as well as in the human body are a key part of the functional properties of these complex systems. The presence or absence of certain microbial taxa is a correlate of functional status like risk of disease or course of metabolic processes of a microbial community. As microbes are highly diverse and mostly notcultivable, molecular markers like gene sequences are a potential basis for detection and identification of key types. The goal of this thesis was to study molecular methods for identification of microbial DNA in order to develop a tool for analysis of environmental and clinical DNA samples. Particular emphasis was placed on specificity of detection which is a major challenge when analyzing complex microbial communities. The approach taken in this study was the application and optimization of enzymatic ligation of DNA probes coupled with microarray read-out for high-throughput microbial profiling. The results show that fungal phylotypes and human papillomavirus genotypes could be accurately identified from pools of PCR amplicons generated from purified sample DNA. Approximately 1 ng/μl of sample DNA was needed for representative PCR amplification as measured by comparisons between clone sequencing and microarray. A minimum of 0,25 amol/μl of PCR amplicons was detectable from amongst 5 ng/μl of background DNA, suggesting that the detection limit of the test comprising of ligation reaction followed by microarray read-out was approximately 0,04%. Detection from sample DNA directly was shown to be feasible with probes forming a circular molecule upon ligation followed by PCR amplification of the probe. In this approach, the minimum detectable relative amount of target genome was found to be 1% of all genomes in the sample as estimated from 454 deep sequencing results. Signal-to-noise of contact printed microarrays could be improved by using an internal microarray hybridization control oligonucleotide probe together with a computational algorithm. The algorithm was based on identification of a bias in the microarray data and correction of the bias as shown by simulated and real data. The results further suggest semiquantitative detection to be possible by ligation detection, allowing estimation of target abundance in a sample. However, in practise, comprehensive sequence information of full length rRNA genes is needed to support probe design with complex samples. This study shows that DNA microarray has the potential for an accurate microbial diagnostic platform to take advantage of increasing sequence data and to replace traditional, less efficient methods that still dominate routine testing in laboratories. The data suggests that ligation reaction based microarray assay can be optimized to a degree that allows good signal-tonoise and semiquantitative detection.