Statistical analysis of the associations of hereditary factors with the risk of Type 1 diabetes and Diabetic Nephropathy based on the familial data collected through ascertaiment from population-based registers

In genetic epidemiology, population-based disease registries are commonly used to collect genotype or other risk factor information concerning affected subjects and their relatives. This work presents two new approaches for the statistical inference of ascertained data: a conditional and full likelihood approaches for the disease with variable age at onset phenotype using familial data obtained from population-based registry of incident cases. The aim is to obtain statistically reliable estimates of the general population parameters. The statistical analysis of familial data with variable age at onset becomes more complicated when some of the study subjects are non-susceptible, that is to say these subjects never get the disease. A statistical model for a variable age at onset with long-term survivors is proposed for studies of familial aggregation, using latent variable approach, as well as for prospective studies of genetic association studies with candidate genes. In addition, we explore the possibility of a genetic explanation of the observed increase in the incidence of Type 1 diabetes (T1D) in Finland in recent decades and the hypothesis of non-Mendelian transmission of T1D associated genes. Both classical and Bayesian statistical inference were used in the modelling and estimation. Despite the fact that this work contains five studies with different statistical models, they all concern data obtained from nationwide registries of T1D and genetics of T1D. In the analyses of T1D data, non-Mendelian transmission of T1D susceptibility alleles was not observed. In addition, non-Mendelian transmission of T1D susceptibility genes did not make a plausible explanation for the increase in T1D incidence in Finland. Instead, the Human Leucocyte Antigen associations with T1D were confirmed in the population-based analysis, which combines T1D registry information, reference sample of healthy subjects and birth cohort information of the Finnish population. Finally, a substantial familial variation in the susceptibility of T1D nephropathy was observed. The presented studies show the benefits of sophisticated statistical modelling to explore risk factors for complex diseases.

Mutation analysis of TGF-β signaling pathway genes among Finnish patients with primary pulmonary hypertension and hereditary hemorrhagic telangiectasia

Primary pulmonary hypertension (PPH), or according to the recent classification idiopathic pulmonary hypertension (IPAH), is a rare, progressive disease of pulmonary vasculature leading to pulmonary hypertension and right heart failure. Most of the patients are sporadic but in about 6% of cases the disease is familial (FPPH). In 2000 two different groups identified the gene predisposing to PPH. This gene, Bone morphogenetic protein receptor type 2 (BMPR2), encodes a subunit of transforming growth factor β (TGF-β) receptor complex. There is a genetic connection between PPH and hereditary hemorrhagic telangiectasia (HHT), a bleeding disorder characterized by local telangiectasias and sometimes with pulmonary hypertension. In HHT, mutations in ALK1 (activin like kinase type 1) and Endoglin, another members of the TGF-β signaling pathway are found. In this study we identified all of the Finnish PPH patients for the years 1986-1999 using the hospital discharge registries of Finnish university hospitals. During this period we found a total of 59 confirmed PPH patients: 55 sporadic and 4 familial representing 3 different families. In 1999 the prevalence of PPH was 5.8 per million and the annual incidence varied between 0.2-1.3 per million. Among 28 PPH patients studied, heterozygous BMPR2 mutations were found in 12% (3/26) of sporadic patients and in 33% of the PPH families (1/3). All the mutations found were different. Large deletions of BMPR2 were excluded by single-stranded chain polymomorphism analysis. As a candidate gene approach we also studied ALK1, Endoglin, Bone Morphogenetic Receptor Type IA (BMPR1A or ALK3), Mothers Against Decapentaplegic Homolog 4 (SMAD4) and Serotonine Transporter Gene (SLC6A4) using single-strand conformational polymorphism (SSCP) analysis and direct sequencing. Among patients and family members studied, we found two mutations in ALK1 in two unrelated samples. We also identified all the HHT patients treated at the Department of Otorhinolaryngology at Helsinki University Central Hospital between the years of 1990-2005 and 8 of the patients were studied for Endoglin and ALK1 mutations using direct sequencing. A total of seven mutations were found and all the mutations were different. The absence of a founder mutation in the Finnish population in both PPH and HHT was somewhat surprising. This suggests that the mutations of BMPR2, ALK1 and Endoglin are quite young and the older mutations have been lost due to repetitive genetic bottlenecks and/or negative selection. Also, other genes than BMPR2 may be involved in the pathogenesis of PPH. No founder mutations were found in PPH or HHT and thus no simple genetic test is available for diagnostics.

Invasive pneumococcal infections in Finland before routine use of conjugate vaccines : opportunities for prevention

Streptococcus pneumoniae is a leading cause of pneumonia, meningitis and bacteremia worldwide. The 23-valent pneumococcal polysaccharide vaccine (PPV23) is recommended for adults less than 65 years old with certain chronic medical conditions and for all elderly persons because of high rates of invasive pneumococcal infections (IPI) and increased risk of death. This study provides a comprehensive picture of the epidemiology of pneumococcal infections in Finland before the introduction of childhood pneumococcal conjugate vaccines, focusing on disease rates, risk factors, clinical outcome, and healthcare associated infections. This study was based on national, population-based laboratory surveillance for IPI. Information on all episodes of IPI was collected from the primary diagnostic laboratory. A case with IPI was defined as the isolation of S. pneumoniae from blood or cerebrospinal fluid during 1995-2002. Information on comorbidities and underlying conditions for IPI patients was obtained by linking the IPI surveillance database to other national, population-based health registries using each patient’s unique national identity code. In total, 4357 cases of IPI were identified. The overall annualized IPI incidence increased by 35% during the study period and was 10.6 per 100 000 population. The temporal increase in disease rates was associated with higher blood culturing rates over time. In working age adults, two-thirds of severe infections and one half of fatal cases occurred in persons with no recognized PPV23 indication. Persons with asthma were at increased risk for IPI and this new risk factor accounted for 5% of the overall disease burden. One tenth of pneumococcal bacteremias were healthcare-associated, and mortality among these patients was over twice as high as among patients with community-associated bacteremia. Most patients with nosocomial infections had underlying conditions for which PPV23 is recommended. The incidence of IPI in Finland has increased and the overall disease burden is higher than previously reported. The findings of this study underscore the urgent need for improved prevention efforts against pneumococcal infections in Finland through increased use of PPV23 in adult risk groups and introduction of childhood immunization with pneumococcal conjugate vaccine.

Primary Fallopian tube carcinoma:occurrence, risk and prognostic factors

The aim of the study was to clarify the occurrence, and etiological and prognostic factors of primary fallopian tube carcinoma (PFTC). We studied the sociodemographic determinants of the incidence of PFTC in Finland and the role of chlamydial infections and human papillomavirus infections as risk factors for PFTC. Serum tumor markers were studied as prognostic factors for PFTC. We also evaluated selected reproductive factors (parity, sterilization and hysterectomy) as risk or protective factors of PFTC. The risks of second primary cancers after PFTC were also studied. The age-adjusted incidence of PFTC in Finland increased to 5.4 / 1,000,000 in 1993 97. The incidence rate was higher in the cities, but the relative rise was higher in rural areas. Women in the two highest social classes showed a 1.8 fold incidence compared with those in the lowest. Women in agriculture and those not working outside the home showed only half the PFTC incidence of those in higher socioeconomic occupations. Pretreatment serum concentrations of hCGβ, CA125 and TATI were evaluated as prognostic markers for PFTC. Elevated hCGβ values (above the 75th percentile, 3.5 pmol/L; OR 2.49, 95% CI 1.22 5.09), stage and histology were strong independent prognostic factors for PFTC. The effects of parity, sterilization and hysterectomy on the risk of PFTC were studied in a case control-study with 573 PFTC cases from the Finnish Cancer Registry. In multivariate analysis parity was the only significant protective factor as regards PFTC, with increasing protection associated with increasing number of deliveries. In univariate analysis sterilization gave borderline protection against PFTC and the protective effect increased with time since the operation. In multivariate analysis the protection did not reach statistical significance. Chlamydial and human papillomavirus (HPV) infections were studied in two separate seroepidemiological case-control studies with 78 PFTC patients. The incidence of women with positive HPV or chlamydial serology was the same in PFTC patients and in the control group and was not found to be a risk factor for PFTC. Finally, the possible risk of a second primary cancer after diagnosis and treatment of PFTC in a cohort of 2084 cases from 13 cancer registries followed for second primary cancers within the period 1943 2000 was studied. In PFTC patients, second primary cancers were 36% more common than expected (SIR 1.36, 95% CI 1.13 1.63). In conclusion, the incidence of PFTC has increased in Finland, especially in higher social classes and among those in certain occupations. Elevated serum hCGβ reflect a worsened prognosis. Parity is a clear protective factor, as is previous sterilization. After PFTC there is a risk of second primary cancers, especially colorectal, breast, lung and bladder cancers and non-lymphoid leukemia. The excess of colorectal and breast cancers after PFTC may indicate common effects of earlier treatments, or they could reflect common effects of lifestyle or genetic, immunological or environmental background.

PERFECT Stroke : PERFormance, Effectiveness, and Costs of treatment episodes in Stroke

Stroke is a major cause of death and disability, incurs significant costs to healthcare systems, and inflicts severe burden to the whole society. Stroke care in Finland has been described in several population-based studies between 1967 and 1998, but not since. In the PERFECT Stroke study presented here, a system for monitoring the Performance, Effectiveness, and Costs of Treatment episodes in Stroke was developed in Finland. Existing nationwide administrative registries were linked at individual patient level with personal identification numbers to depict whole episodes of care, from acute stroke, through rehabilitation, until the patients went home, were admitted to permanent institutional care, or died. For comparisons in time and between providers, patient case-mix was adjusted for. The PERFECT Stroke database includes 104 899 first-ever stroke patients over the years 1999 to 2008, of whom 79% had ischemic stroke (IS), 14% intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH), and 7% subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH). A 18% decrease in the age and sex adjusted incidence of stroke was observed over the study period, 1.8% improvement annually. All-cause 1-year case-fatality rate improved from 28.6% to 24.6%, or 0.5% annually. The expected median lifetime after stroke increased by 2 years for IS patients, to 7 years and 7 months, and by 1 year for ICH patients, to 4 years 5 months. No change could be seen in median SAH patient survival, >10 years. Stroke prevalence was 82 000, 1.5% of total population of Finland, in 2008. Modern stroke center care was shown to be associated with a decrease in both death and risk of institutional care of stroke patients. Number needed to treat to prevent these poor outcomes at one year from stroke was 32 (95% confidence intervals 26 to 42). Despite improvements over the study period, more than a third of Finnish stroke patients did not have access to stroke center care. The mean first-year healthcare cost of a stroke patient was ~20 000 , and among survivors ~10 000 annually thereafter. Only part of this cost was incurred by stroke, as the same patients cost ~5000 over the year prior to stroke. Total lifetime costs after first-ever stroke were ~85 000 . A total of 1.1 Billion , 7% of all healthcare expenditure, is used in the treatment of stroke patients annually. Despite a rapidly aging population, the number of new stroke patients is decreasing, and the patients are more likely to survive. This is explained in part by stroke center care, which is effective, and should be made available for all stroke patients. It is possible, in a suitable setting with high-quality administrative registries and a common identifier, to avoid the huge workload and associated costs of setting up a conventional stroke registry, and still acquire a fairly comprehensive dataset on stroke care and outcome.

Carotid Surgery : A posse ad esse non valet consequentia

According to a large body of evidence, carotid endarterectomy (CEA) can prevent strokes, provided that appropriate inclusion criteria and high-quality perioperative treatment methods are utilised with low complication rates. From the patient s perspective, it is of paramount importance that the operation is as safe and effective as possible. From the community s point of view, it is important that CEA provision prevents as many strokes as possible. In order to define the stroke preventing potential of CEA in different communities, a comparison between eight European countries and Australia was performed including 53 077 carotid interventions. A more detailed evaluation was performed in Finland, the United Kingdom and Egypt. It could be estimated that many potentially preventable strokes occur due to insufficient diagnostics and CEA provision. The number of CEAs should be at least doubled in the Helsinki region. The theoretical power of CEA provision in stroke prevention varied significantly between the countries. Delay from symptom to surgery has been identified as one of the most important factors influencing the effectiveness of CEA. In 2008 only 11% of CEAs in Helsinki university central hospital (HUCH) were performed within the recommended14 days. Registered data of 673 CEAs in HUCH during 2000-2005 was analyzed. There was no systematic error that would have changed the outcome analysis. However it is important that registers are audited regularly and cross matching of different registries is possible. A previously unpublished method of combining medial mandibulotomy, neck incision and carotid artery interposition was carried out as a collaboration of maxillofacial, ear, nose and throat and vascular surgeons. Five patients were operated on with a technique that was feasible and possible to perform with little morbidity, but due to the significant risks involved, this technique should be reserved for carefully selected cases. In stroke prevention, organisational decisions seem far more important than details in interventional procedures when CEA is performed with low complication rates, as was the case in the present study. A TIA clinic approach with close co-operation between the on-call vascular surgeons, neurologists and radiologists should be available at all centres treating these patients. Patients should have a direct and fast admission to the hospital performing CEA.